GOP Primary Megathread III: Third Time's A Charm

[The Liberated Territories]

I'm personally waiting for the moment that Donald Trump is refused the GOP nomination and/or loses, creates his own third party, and therefore hilariously destroys the GOP by pulling a Teddy Roosevelt on the election. Maybe, just maybe that will be the spark to allow some changes to American elections to allow third parties, or at least put a spotlight on the problem, but I shouldn't get ahead of myself.

[Diopolis]

It's better the devil you know plus a calculation that Cruz won't try to take out the whole party if he loses the general.

All I can say for sure is that if more establishment figures like Graham start to come out begrudgingly for Cruz over Trump, Kasich should drop immediately. It signals that even though they almost certainly prefer Kasich to Cruz, they accept that there's not even a remote chance that he will win. As a result, Kasich is only pulling votes away from the establishment choice, and that is particularly dangerous when many of the remaining states are winner-take-all or winner-take-most.

Keeping it real, I mean I voted for Kasich in the Texas primary (just like you did) but he ought to leave as soon as possible given current strategy.

Perhaps. If I were him I'd try my hand at a few more primaries he's likely to win(eg not ones Cruz is likely to win) and drop immediately before the convention with an endorsement for Cruz or wait for a few more establishment endorsements.

[Romalae]

All I can say for sure is that if more establishment figures like Graham start to come out begrudgingly for Cruz over Trump, Kasich should drop immediately. It signals that even though they almost certainly prefer Kasich to Cruz, they accept that there's not even a remote chance that he will win. As a result, Kasich is only pulling votes away from the establishment choice, and that is particularly dangerous when many of the remaining states are winner-take-all or winner-take-most.

Keeping it real, I mean I voted for Kasich in the Texas primary (just like you did) but he ought to leave as soon as possible given current strategy.

Perhaps. If I were him I'd try my hand at a few more primaries he's likely to win(eg not ones Cruz is likely to win) and drop immediately before the convention with an endorsement for Cruz or wait for a few more establishment endorsements.

Well, certainly if more establishment figures start to endorse him then that might give him justification to stay in this thing, but if others follow the Graham strategy, then that would be a clear signal to step aside. Also, I'm not sure what other states Kasich is likely to win. Maybe Rhode Island or something? I'm pretty sure Trump will dominate the remaining states east of the Mississippi River and Cruz will dominate what's west of it (minus Arizona).

[Diopolis]

Perhaps. If I were him I'd try my hand at a few more primaries he's likely to win(eg not ones Cruz is likely to win) and drop immediately before the convention with an endorsement for Cruz or wait for a few more establishment endorsements.

Well, certainly if more establishment figures start to endorse him then that might give him justification to stay in this thing, but if others follow the Graham strategy, then that would be a clear signal to step aside. Also, I'm not sure what other states Kasich is likely to win. Maybe Rhode Island or something? I'm pretty sure Trump will dominate the remaining states east of the Mississippi River and Cruz will dominate what's west of it (minus Arizona).

Cruz is going to have severe difficulty with Pennsylvania/New York, Cali and the rest of the west coast, etc. Basically, Kasich should contest the remaining blue state primaries to try to stop Trump's delegate accumulation if he wants to back Cruz. Then he can drop after they're done and order his delegates to support Cruz.

[Romalae]

Well, certainly if more establishment figures start to endorse him then that might give him justification to stay in this thing, but if others follow the Graham strategy, then that would be a clear signal to step aside. Also, I'm not sure what other states Kasich is likely to win. Maybe Rhode Island or something? I'm pretty sure Trump will dominate the remaining states east of the Mississippi River and Cruz will dominate what's west of it (minus Arizona).

Cruz is going to have severe difficulty with Pennsylvania/New York, Cali and the rest of the west coast, etc. Basically, Kasich should contest the remaining blue state primaries to try to stop Trump's delegate accumulation if he wants to back Cruz. Then he can drop after they're done and order his delegates to support Cruz.

The problem is that many of the remaining blue state primaries are winner-take-all or winner-take-most (Wisconsin, New York, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, California, New Jersey). It's unclear how exactly Rubio's supporters will vote because they haven't voted yet in any primaries now that he's dropped out. One would think that they go over to Kasich, but they could very easily go to Cruz for strategic (and also ideological) reasons. Hell, I'm sure some would go to Trump. If we find out that Cruz and Kasich are potentially splitting the non-Trump vote, then that assures that Trump will win these blue-state winner-take-all/winner-take-most primaries when he might otherwise not.

[Geilinor]

Cruz is going to have severe difficulty with Pennsylvania/New York, Cali and the rest of the west coast, etc. Basically, Kasich should contest the remaining blue state primaries to try to stop Trump's delegate accumulation if he wants to back Cruz. Then he can drop after they're done and order his delegates to support Cruz.

The problem is that many of the remaining blue state primaries are winner-take-all or winner-take-most (Wisconsin, New York, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, California, New Jersey). It's unclear how exactly Rubio's supporters will vote because they haven't voted yet in any primaries now that he's dropped out. One would think that they go over to Kasich, but they could very easily go to Cruz for strategic (and also ideological) reasons. Hell, I'm sure some would go to Trump. If we find out that Cruz and Kasich are potentially splitting the non-Trump vote, then that assures that Trump will win these blue-state winner-take-all/winner-take-most primaries when he might otherwise not.

The GOP should never have created so many winner-take-all states, it's their own fault.

[Khadgar]

The problem is that many of the remaining blue state primaries are winner-take-all or winner-take-most (Wisconsin, New York, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, California, New Jersey). It's unclear how exactly Rubio's supporters will vote because they haven't voted yet in any primaries now that he's dropped out. One would think that they go over to Kasich, but they could very easily go to Cruz for strategic (and also ideological) reasons. Hell, I'm sure some would go to Trump. If we find out that Cruz and Kasich are potentially splitting the non-Trump vote, then that assures that Trump will win these blue-state winner-take-all/winner-take-most primaries when he might otherwise not.

The GOP should never have created so many winner-take-all states, it's their own fault.

It seemed like a good idea at the time. The idea was that ideologues could win Iowa and early states and then the establishment backed candidates would clear up in the winner take all states when the big establishment money and backing pushed things their way.

[Geilinor]

The GOP should never have created so many winner-take-all states, it's their own fault.

It seemed like a good idea at the time. The idea was that ideologues could win Iowa and early states and then the establishment backed candidates would clear up in the winner take all states when the big establishment money and backing pushed things their way.

And now the establishment is screwed no matter what happens.

[AiliailiA]

It's unclear how exactly Rubio's supporters will vote because they haven't voted yet in any primaries now that he's dropped out. One would think that they go over to Kasich, but they could very easily go to Cruz for strategic (and also ideological) reasons.

Other options are that they don't vote at all. Or ... they vote for Rubio even though he's dropped out! Bush and Huckabee are still getting votes, though not enough to get any delegates.

Hell, I'm sure some would go to Trump. If we find out that Cruz and Kasich are potentially splitting the non-Trump vote, then that assures that Trump will win these blue-state winner-take-all/winner-take-most primaries when he might otherwise not.

It would be great if candidates could take their name off ballots state-by-state. Then Kasich and Cruz could divvy up the remaining states so they don't split each others' votes.

But it's not possible to take names off the ballot, even by announcing withdrawal from the whole contest.

[Diopolis]

It's unclear how exactly Rubio's supporters will vote because they haven't voted yet in any primaries now that he's dropped out. One would think that they go over to Kasich, but they could very easily go to Cruz for strategic (and also ideological) reasons.

Other options are that they don't vote at all. Or ... they vote for Rubio even though he's dropped out! Bush and Huckabee are still getting votes, though not enough to get any delegates.

Hell, I'm sure some would go to Trump. If we find out that Cruz and Kasich are potentially splitting the non-Trump vote, then that assures that Trump will win these blue-state winner-take-all/winner-take-most primaries when he might otherwise not.

It would be great if candidates could take their name off ballots state-by-state. Then Kasich and Cruz could divvy up the remaining states so they don't split each others' votes.

But it's not possible to take names off the ballot, even by announcing withdrawal from the whole contest.

They could tell their supporters to vote for each other based on the state they're in, like what Rubio did. Of course, Cruz seems to think he's leading his own movement, so that's rather unlikely.

[AiliailiA]

Well, certainly if more establishment figures start to endorse him then that might give him justification to stay in this thing, but if others follow the Graham strategy, then that would be a clear signal to step aside. Also, I'm not sure what other states Kasich is likely to win. Maybe Rhode Island or something? I'm pretty sure Trump will dominate the remaining states east of the Mississippi River and Cruz will dominate what's west of it (minus Arizona).

Cruz is going to have severe difficulty with Pennsylvania/New York, Cali and the rest of the west coast, etc. Basically, Kasich should contest the remaining blue state primaries to try to stop Trump's delegate accumulation if he wants to back Cruz. Then he can drop after they're done and order his delegates to support Cruz.

I think you mean "order his supporters". Delegates can't be ordered to support anyone else (in the first ballot at the National Convention) because they're pledged.

It's only a party rule, not a law though. The party can change it at the convention before holding the first ballot.

Still, I rather agree that Cruz and Kasich have to co-operate. Though Kasich is still in the race for no conceivable reason than to stop Trump AND Cruz, everyone hates Cruz etc, Kasich can't hurt Trump without helping Cruz. They both have to stop Trump getting that first-ballot majority because that's the only chance for either of them.

How they settle it at the convention is up to them. Tossing a coin wouldn't be fair because it doesn't account the disparity of delegates they will have. I suggest playing poker with their pledged delegates as chips. Kasich and Cruz at a table on the convention floor, gambling until one is bust and the other has all the delegates. Let no-one say the process was a backroom deal, or anything less than completely fair. It would be televised.

[Eol Sha]

Cruz is going to have severe difficulty with Pennsylvania/New York, Cali and the rest of the west coast, etc. Basically, Kasich should contest the remaining blue state primaries to try to stop Trump's delegate accumulation if he wants to back Cruz. Then he can drop after they're done and order his delegates to support Cruz.

I think you mean "order his supporters". Delegates can't be ordered to support anyone else (in the first ballot at the National Convention) because they're pledged.

It's only a party rule, not a law though. The party can change it at the convention before holding the first ballot.

Still, I rather agree that Cruz and Kasich have to co-operate. Though Kasich is still in the race for no conceivable reason than to stop Trump AND Cruz, everyone hates Cruz etc, Kasich can't hurt Trump without helping Cruz. They both have to stop Trump getting that first-ballot majority because that's the only chance for either of them.

How they settle it at the convention is up to them. Tossing a coin wouldn't be fair because it doesn't account the disparity of delegates they will have. I suggest playing poker with their pledged delegates as chips. Kasich and Cruz at a table on the convention floor, gambling until one is bust and the other has all the delegates. Let no-one say the process was a backroom deal, or anything less than completely fair. It would be televised.

How about a good ol' fashioned game of Horse?

[Trumpostan]

Other options are that they don't vote at all. Or ... they vote for Rubio even though he's dropped out! Bush and Huckabee are still getting votes, though not enough to get any delegates.



It would be great if candidates could take their name off ballots state-by-state. Then Kasich and Cruz could divvy up the remaining states so they don't split each others' votes.

But it's not possible to take names off the ballot, even by announcing withdrawal from the whole contest.

They could tell their supporters to vote for each other based on the state they're in, like what Rubio did. Of course, Cruz seems to think he's leading his own movement, so that's rather unlikely.

Except that didn't work (so far). You can say about Trump's support what you will, but it has a hard floor (as well as a ceiling). He will be competitive in most remaining states, meaning a ton of delegates in all "proportional" states.

[AiliailiA]

Other options are that they don't vote at all. Or ... they vote for Rubio even though he's dropped out! Bush and Huckabee are still getting votes, though not enough to get any delegates.



It would be great if candidates could take their name off ballots state-by-state. Then Kasich and Cruz could divvy up the remaining states so they don't split each others' votes.

But it's not possible to take names off the ballot, even by announcing withdrawal from the whole contest.

They could tell their supporters to vote for each other based on the state they're in, like what Rubio did. Of course, Cruz seems to think he's leading his own movement, so that's rather unlikely.

Yeah, he's a bit slow on the uptake. His chance of winning an outright majority of delegates is miniscule.

[AiliailiA]

I think you mean "order his supporters". Delegates can't be ordered to support anyone else (in the first ballot at the National Convention) because they're pledged.

It's only a party rule, not a law though. The party can change it at the convention before holding the first ballot.

Still, I rather agree that Cruz and Kasich have to co-operate. Though Kasich is still in the race for no conceivable reason than to stop Trump AND Cruz, everyone hates Cruz etc, Kasich can't hurt Trump without helping Cruz. They both have to stop Trump getting that first-ballot majority because that's the only chance for either of them.

How they settle it at the convention is up to them. Tossing a coin wouldn't be fair because it doesn't account the disparity of delegates they will have. I suggest playing poker with their pledged delegates as chips. Kasich and Cruz at a table on the convention floor, gambling until one is bust and the other has all the delegates. Let no-one say the process was a backroom deal, or anything less than completely fair. It would be televised.

How about a good ol' fashioned game of Horse?

I'm unfamiliar with it I'm afraid.
Looking for a game where the starting stake is reflected in the chance of winning. If player A has twice the "chips" of player B, the odds should be 2:1 in A's favor.

[Diopolis]

Cruz is going to have severe difficulty with Pennsylvania/New York, Cali and the rest of the west coast, etc. Basically, Kasich should contest the remaining blue state primaries to try to stop Trump's delegate accumulation if he wants to back Cruz. Then he can drop after they're done and order his delegates to support Cruz.

I think you mean "order his supporters". Delegates can't be ordered to support anyone else (in the first ballot at the National Convention) because they're pledged.

It's only a party rule, not a law though. The party can change it at the convention before holding the first ballot.

Still, I rather agree that Cruz and Kasich have to co-operate. Though Kasich is still in the race for no conceivable reason than to stop Trump AND Cruz, everyone hates Cruz etc, Kasich can't hurt Trump without helping Cruz. They both have to stop Trump getting that first-ballot majority because that's the only chance for either of them.

How they settle it at the convention is up to them. Tossing a coin wouldn't be fair because it doesn't account the disparity of delegates they will have. I suggest playing poker with their pledged delegates as chips. Kasich and Cruz at a table on the convention floor, gambling until one is bust and the other has all the delegates. Let no-one say the process was a backroom deal, or anything less than completely fair. It would be televised.

Only if the delegates are literally used as chips rather than just having chips represent the delegates.

[AiliailiA]

I think you mean "order his supporters". Delegates can't be ordered to support anyone else (in the first ballot at the National Convention) because they're pledged.

It's only a party rule, not a law though. The party can change it at the convention before holding the first ballot.

Still, I rather agree that Cruz and Kasich have to co-operate. Though Kasich is still in the race for no conceivable reason than to stop Trump AND Cruz, everyone hates Cruz etc, Kasich can't hurt Trump without helping Cruz. They both have to stop Trump getting that first-ballot majority because that's the only chance for either of them.

How they settle it at the convention is up to them. Tossing a coin wouldn't be fair because it doesn't account the disparity of delegates they will have. I suggest playing poker with their pledged delegates as chips. Kasich and Cruz at a table on the convention floor, gambling until one is bust and the other has all the delegates. Let no-one say the process was a backroom deal, or anything less than completely fair. It would be televised.

Only if the delegates are literally used as chips rather than just having chips represent the delegates.

We'll need a really big table. We can do it though, it's a VERY big room.

[Eol Sha]

How about a good ol' fashioned game of Horse?

I'm unfamiliar with it I'm afraid.
Looking for a game where the starting stake is reflected in the chance of winning. If player A has twice the "chips" of player B, the odds should be 2:1 in A's favor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variation ... #H-O-R-S-E

[Galloism]

I think you mean "order his supporters". Delegates can't be ordered to support anyone else (in the first ballot at the National Convention) because they're pledged.

It's only a party rule, not a law though. The party can change it at the convention before holding the first ballot.

Still, I rather agree that Cruz and Kasich have to co-operate. Though Kasich is still in the race for no conceivable reason than to stop Trump AND Cruz, everyone hates Cruz etc, Kasich can't hurt Trump without helping Cruz. They both have to stop Trump getting that first-ballot majority because that's the only chance for either of them.

How they settle it at the convention is up to them. Tossing a coin wouldn't be fair because it doesn't account the disparity of delegates they will have. I suggest playing poker with their pledged delegates as chips. Kasich and Cruz at a table on the convention floor, gambling until one is bust and the other has all the delegates. Let no-one say the process was a backroom deal, or anything less than completely fair. It would be televised.

Only if the delegates are literally used as chips rather than just having chips represent the delegates.

That would be interesting enough to televise.

[Trumpostan]

I'm unfamiliar with it I'm afraid.
Looking for a game where the starting stake is reflected in the chance of winning. If player A has twice the "chips" of player B, the odds should be 2:1 in A's favor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variation ... #H-O-R-S-E

How about some old fashioned duelling, Hamilton-Burr style?

[MolokoPlus]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variation ... #H-O-R-S-E

How about some old fashioned duelling, Hamilton-Burr style?

I was thinking more Jackson, but sure.

[Geilinor]

Trump owns a company called Trump Follies LLC. http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/07/23/7-Revelations-Donald-Trump-s-Financial-Disclosure

It looks like his presidential bid must be a holding of Trump Follies because this is a big one.

[Senkaku]

I think you mean "order his supporters". Delegates can't be ordered to support anyone else (in the first ballot at the National Convention) because they're pledged.

It's only a party rule, not a law though. The party can change it at the convention before holding the first ballot.

Still, I rather agree that Cruz and Kasich have to co-operate. Though Kasich is still in the race for no conceivable reason than to stop Trump AND Cruz, everyone hates Cruz etc, Kasich can't hurt Trump without helping Cruz. They both have to stop Trump getting that first-ballot majority because that's the only chance for either of them.

How they settle it at the convention is up to them. Tossing a coin wouldn't be fair because it doesn't account the disparity of delegates they will have. I suggest playing poker with their pledged delegates as chips. Kasich and Cruz at a table on the convention floor, gambling until one is bust and the other has all the delegates. Let no-one say the process was a backroom deal, or anything less than completely fair. It would be televised.

How about a good ol' fashioned game of Horse?

Ted Cruz is made of pudding. I would have serious concerns over his ability to complete a game of Horse.

Only if the delegates are literally used as chips rather than just having chips represent the delegates.

We'll need a really big table. We can do it though, it's a VERY big room.

Do the thing from Harry Potter with life-sized chess. Pick some delegates or staffers or whatever, each candidate is the king, and give them all knives or something.

[AiliailiA]

Trump owns a company called Trump Follies LLC. http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/07/23/7-Revelations-Donald-Trump-s-Financial-Disclosure

It looks like his presidential bid must be a holding of Trump Follies because this is a big one.

The revelation that Trump has a troupe of dancing girls wouldn't damage his image at all.

"Follies" can also refer to ostentatious buildings with no real purpose (eg mock castles). Also seems a good fit.

[Geilinor]

Trump owns a company called Trump Follies LLC. http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/07/23/7-Revelations-Donald-Trump-s-Financial-Disclosure

It looks like his presidential bid must be a holding of Trump Follies because this is a big one.

The revelation that Trump has a troupe of dancing girls wouldn't damage his image at all.

"Follies" can also refer to ostentatious buildings with no real purpose (eg mock castles). Also seems a good fit.

The joke being that Trump will lose in a general election and so his decision to run for president was a folly.