GOP Primary Megathread III: Third Time's A Charm

[Trumpostan]

As per fivethirtyeight: since 1972 (when primaries became prevalent) only 7 candidates failed to win their party's nomination with a majority of the primary vote. Just one of them won the general election: Obama with 48% in the Dem primaries. And that is because his opponent McCain also came out of the primaries with 48% of the vote.

More ominously for Trump, candidates with less than 40% of the primary vote get blown out in the general election. He is on 37% of the primary vote. The others under 40% were McGovern and Mondale. Party division is not a good omen for him. A bitter primary also cost Ford in 1976.

[AiliailiA]

This Fox analysis says that Kasich is effectively out even if he doesn't yet know it. He might not even qualify to get on the ballot in Pennsylvania and has won only 1 state this whole year. The establishment in the GOP has no choice now but to choose between Trump or Cruz. It is a two person race now with Kasich being ignored.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/03/ ... ation.html

Rollins makes the interesting claim that Cruz won more delegates on the day than Kasich.

The delegate distribution isn't final yet, but he seems to be right.

Now if Rollins is right that establishment support sunk Rubio (rather than helping him) and the same thing will now happen to Kasich, I think it follows that Kasich shouldn't drop out. Because if he does, the establishment support switches to Cruz and damages him instead!

[Tmutarakhan]

I kinda want to see Trump win to see Cruz's reaction at not winning a single state.

He's already spoken tonight.

He sounded like he was giving a victory speech, even though he hadn't won anything.

[Khadgar]

Not all hope is lost, it's still entirely possible Trump will not get a clean majority of delegates before the convention. He still can't seem to break the 50% mark in any state. Gives hope that he won't be the nominee.

Who'd have thought there would be a day when everyone would hope for a brokered convention?

[Ostroeuropa]

I've been reading up on brokered conventions, and it seems that there simply will not be one unless it comes down to an extremely close tie between Cruz and Trump. (Double digits delegate numbers between them with neither securing the nomination might see Cruz edge it out.)

The establishment politicians will play the long game here;

Trump runs 2016, wins, good job, republicans win the whitehouse.
Trump runs 2016, loses, "See? Now will you listen to the "moderates?" " 4 years isn't that long in a political career, and they've got a good shot in 2020. They'll have quashed rebellion against the conservative establishment.

Both outcomes have upsides and downsides for the establishment. Conversely:

Trump is denied the nomination. Trumps supporters flip out. The republican parties legitimacy is sorely damaged. It definitely loses the race either due to a third party run from Trump, Trump voters defecting to a third party, or sitting out the election. This damage will pit figures in the republican party against eachother and cause a massive rift that will not merely be a 4 year stumble, but potentially the downfall of the party as a national force for a few elections, or even permanently if we see major realignments.

In the event of a close call, Cruz has already indicated he is willing to support Trumps run. Trump has made no such indication.

I'm just about ready to call it.

Unless Rubios voters defect to Cruz and he wins states from hereon out to outright secure a nomination or deny Trump the plurality, Trump has won this election.

If Rubios voters find themselves unwilling to vote for a Theocrat and sit it out, Trump has won.

If Rubios voters split between Cruz/Trump, Trump has won.

[Tmutarakhan]

Not all hope is lost, it's still entirely possible Trump will not get a clean majority of delegates before the convention. He still can't seem to break the 50% mark in any state. Gives hope that he won't be the nominee.

Who'd have thought there would be a day when everyone would hope for a brokered convention?

I was hoping for a deadlocked Republican convention with floor fights (open carry? we could only hope!) since even before Trump announced.

[Khadgar]

Not all hope is lost, it's still entirely possible Trump will not get a clean majority of delegates before the convention. He still can't seem to break the 50% mark in any state. Gives hope that he won't be the nominee.

Who'd have thought there would be a day when everyone would hope for a brokered convention?

I was hoping for a deadlocked Republican convention with floor fights (open carry? we could only hope!) since even before Trump announced.

I certainly hope it's civilized. I don't want it turning into a riot and I sure as hell don't want anyone killed.

[Washington Resistance Army]

So Kasich has been mathematically eliminated from getting the nomination, he really needs to hurry up and drop out.

[Ashmoria]

So Kasich has been mathematically eliminated from getting the nomination, he really needs to hurry up and drop out.

he cant. he wants a brokered convention so he can steal the nomination away from trump. if he drops out then cruz has a chance to win outright (not a GOOD chance, mind you).

because in the end, if there is a brokered convention, no one is going to want to hand it to either trump or cruz. if Kasich can build up a nice cache of delegates he is the natural choice.

[Lychgate]

Another update:

Trump: 661 delegates
Cruz: 406
Rubio: 169
Kasich: 142

Trump has won all Mar. 15 states but Ohio and now leads Cruz with a 200+ plurality. The next primaries are Arizona and Utah, both on Mar. 22. Rubio is all but gone, and Kasich's riding out for a brokered convention. 1079 delegates remain.

[Ashmoria]

Another update:

Trump: 661 delegates
Cruz: 406
Rubio: 169
Kasich: 142

Trump has won all Mar. 15 states but Ohio and now leads Cruz with a 200+ plurality. The next primaries are Arizona and Utah, both on Mar. 22. Rubio is all but gone, and Kasich's riding out for a brokered convention. 1079 delegates remain.

its going to be an interesting general election.

I recommend that you (generic you) start keeping track of the terrible things the republican elite are saying about trump now so you can laugh at them later when they start to lionize him as the greatest candidate in the history of the party.

[Khadgar]

Another update:

Trump: 661 delegates
Cruz: 406
Rubio: 169
Kasich: 142

Trump has won all Mar. 15 states but Ohio and now leads Cruz with a 200+ plurality. The next primaries are Arizona and Utah, both on Mar. 22. Rubio is all but gone, and Kasich's riding out for a brokered convention. 1079 delegates remain.

its going to be an interesting general election.

I recommend that you (generic you) start keeping track of the terrible things the republican elite are saying about trump now so you can laugh at them later when they start to lionize him as the greatest candidate in the history of the party.

He's Reagan all over again!

[Teemant]

So Kasich has been mathematically eliminated from getting the nomination, he really needs to hurry up and drop out.

he cant. he wants a brokered convention so he can steal the nomination away from trump. if he drops out then cruz has a chance to win outright (not a GOOD chance, mind you).

because in the end, if there is a brokered convention, no one is going to want to hand it to either trump or cruz. if Kasich can build up a nice cache of delegates he is the natural choice.

This would be a terrible idea. He has only about 150 delegates as of now.

[MERIZoC]

https://theintercept.com/2016/03/14/florida-attorney-general-endorses-trump-after-taking-his-money-and-backing-off-trump-university-investigation/
Mildly interesting.

[Alvecia]

https://theintercept.com/2016/03/14/florida-attorney-general-endorses-trump-after-taking-his-money-and-backing-off-trump-university-investigation/
Mildly interesting.

How is that not a bribe?

[Khadgar]

https://theintercept.com/2016/03/14/florida-attorney-general-endorses-trump-after-taking-his-money-and-backing-off-trump-university-investigation/
Mildly interesting.

How is that not a bribe?

Well if it was a bribe the attorney general would presumably investigate. Ohhh..

[Ashmoria]

https://theintercept.com/2016/03/14/florida-attorney-general-endorses-trump-after-taking-his-money-and-backing-off-trump-university-investigation/
Mildly interesting.

How is that not a bribe?

supposedly--according to my sister and her facebook feed--trump has already broken the law by promising ben carson a job in return for his endorsement. this is just gravy.

[Liriena]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/don ... 5c9183e915

I will say this: A stupid man would overtly threaten the GOP with violence. It is the sign of a somewhat clever monster that Trump uses just the right words so everyone can tell he's threatening and inciting violence, but nobody can actually accuse him of incitement to violence or intimidation.

[Liriena]

https://theintercept.com/2016/03/14/florida-attorney-general-endorses-trump-after-taking-his-money-and-backing-off-trump-university-investigation/
Mildly interesting.

But hey, Trump is totally not one of them crooked establishment politicians!

[G-Tech Corporation]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-riots-nomination_us_56e956fae4b0b25c9183e915

I will say this: A stupid man would overtly threaten the GOP with violence. It is the sign of a somewhat clever monster that Trump uses just the right words so everyone can tell he's threatening and inciting violence, but nobody can actually accuse him of incitement to violence or intimidation.

I love the editor's note on that article.

[Zurkerx]

So Kasich has been mathematically eliminated from getting the nomination, he really needs to hurry up and drop out.

he cant. he wants a brokered convention so he can steal the nomination away from trump. if he drops out then cruz has a chance to win outright (not a GOOD chance, mind you).

because in the end, if there is a brokered convention, no one is going to want to hand it to either trump or cruz. if Kasich can build up a nice cache of delegates he is the natural choice.

I think Trump only needs to win like 55% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination. He's going to get it.

So this is a rather weird prediction here by Limbaugh but then again, anything is possible.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop- ... nee-220805

[Ashmoria]

he cant. he wants a brokered convention so he can steal the nomination away from trump. if he drops out then cruz has a chance to win outright (not a GOOD chance, mind you).

because in the end, if there is a brokered convention, no one is going to want to hand it to either trump or cruz. if Kasich can build up a nice cache of delegates he is the natural choice.

I think Trump only needs to win like 55% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination. He's going to get it.

So this is a rather weird prediction here by Limbaugh but then again, anything is possible.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop- ... nee-220805

I think trump will win it too. but that just means that Kasich has no big reason to drop out. its only his money and his pride at stake.

[Liriena]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-riots-nomination_us_56e956fae4b0b25c9183e915

I will say this: A stupid man would overtly threaten the GOP with violence. It is the sign of a somewhat clever monster that Trump uses just the right words so everyone can tell he's threatening and inciting violence, but nobody can actually accuse him of incitement to violence or intimidation.

I love the editor's note on that article.

HuffPo has been doing that for every Trump-related article ever since they stopped placing them in their Entertainment section.

[Cymrea]

I think Trump only needs to win like 55% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination. He's going to get it.

So this is a rather weird prediction here by Limbaugh but then again, anything is possible.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop- ... nee-220805

That is indeed a weird prediction. But since he has failed to honour on his ridiculous pledge to leave the US if ACA passed, he bears little if any credibility in my mind. If you're going to say stupid shit like that for attention, at least have the integrity to follow through, even if only temporarily.

What I find odd is that the wording of the article states that Limbaugh's prediction is that Bush will emerge as the nominee, not could or candidate.

[AiliailiA]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-riots-nomination_us_56e956fae4b0b25c9183e915

I will say this: A stupid man would overtly threaten the GOP with violence. It is the sign of a somewhat clever monster that Trump uses just the right words so everyone can tell he's threatening and inciting violence, but nobody can actually accuse him of incitement to violence or intimidation.

Oh yes they can.

Prove it in court, no. Accuse him of it and have it stick, definitely.

Trump didn't just volunteer this opinion, the question was pretty specific:

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