The UK Referendum on Membership of the European Union

[Hurdegaryp]

That's just posturing by the king of alcohol, Juncker. Besides, the majority of British trade doesn't even go to the EU to begin with.

It goes.

57%, to be exact.

[Novus America]

Well surely you are joking now. Yes humanity survived as a bunch of anarchic savage apes. But lived to be no more than about 30 years old. And died all the time.

Stop scaremongering.

I am not scaremongering, just pointing out breaking things down to that level is bad. Nobody is going to break things down to that level.

[Neu Leonstein]

I will be honest, I would be more concerned if the exit stocks were being sold at a dramatic speed and we fall even further.

We are remaining stable in the 17,400s as of right now, so it's not time to panic about a market crash yet.

Not about to disagree with you on sentiment, but equity markets are not the be all and end all. In fact, they're pretty irrelevant in the greater scheme of things. You'd get more info out of exchange rates and gilts.

[Hurdegaryp]

I don't think that's how it necessarily has to go down. Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, all went Remain, I could see a scenario where they join up with Ireland as a backdoor way to stay in the EU. Northern Ireland seems like it might go that way anyway.

Wouldn't that be interesting. What would Ireland, Scotland, and Wales call themselves?

Just a small correction: Wales actually voted Leave.

[Imperializt Russia]

Oh no, it's nothing because of Brexit, I was just making a joke. They're getting sacked for not coming into work.

By happy coincidence, today is actually my last day anyway and I am leaving voluntarily.

Well that's all good. You got a new job offer in the bag already?

No, I'm returning to university for the summer to begin a Master's thesis.

Oh no, it's nothing because of Brexit, I was just making a joke. They're getting sacked for not coming into work.

By happy coincidence, today is actually my last day anyway and I am leaving voluntarily.

Oh.
Do they regularly not turn up anyway?

I'm going to be very unfair about my work, my area and Brexiters right now, but I'd argue that the kind of person who supports Brexit and works in a fish factory, and statistically works there because the Job Centre told them to, and decides to sack off when Brexit wins, may be problem employees.

To be fair because it's agency work and some people they employ are just bastards, they take no shit. There's a long list of first-time offences that are still sackable.

[Novus America]

Sure. So why are people panicking over change rather than looking forward at how to adapt? This thread is pretty much "OMGs!" "Oh Noes!" over change. The die is cast. Saying it should not have been cast or you do not like the number that came up does nothing.

Becuase some change is shit. Maybe people are even just voicing their opinions, like you yourself are doing.

And yes change is constant. But not consistent. There are aras of small changes. And eras of big ones.

The Brexit is small change in the world order. But it is a symptom of the world order dying. A new world order is coming.

Is this meant to be profound.

No this is not meant to be profound. Yes some change is shit. You still have to adapt to the shit changes as much as the good ones.

[Dooom35796821595]

Because breaking down to the indvidual level is anarchy. I know you dislike the leave campaign but the UK is able to survive on its own. Every region and city is not. Plus changing all borders every election would cause complete chaos.

I don't think that's how it necessarily has to go down. Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, all went Remain, I could see a scenario where they join up with Ireland as a backdoor way to stay in the EU. Northern Ireland seems like it might go that way anyway.

Wales voted leave by a larger margin the the UK.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

I really don't know. I think it's almost certainly going to be bad for the UK in both the short run (the uncertainty makes people less likely to buy big items or invest in new machines and things) and in the long term (loss of foreign investment and competition, loss of human capital and the like. The Bank of England will do what it can to make sure markets and banks can keep functioning, but on the government spending and taxation side it's just going to be chaos for a while. And in the City of London things could get ugly... a lot depends on very arcane rules that govern whether UK-based financial companies can deal directly with EU clients. If those rules don't survive, a lot of jobs will have to move. Walking through the City this afternoon I overheard conversations about that a few times.

For the world, it depends on the details. Markets don't like the uncertainty and that might limit near term bounce backs. And the big worry is if you get more anti-EU moves in other EU countries too. But either way, if you had plans to invest in the UK or the EU this year, you might hold off on those for a bit until you know more.

Maybe have a look at some of the analysis put together by HM Treasury, the IMF, the OECD and so on. I know that the Leave campaign said (incredibly) that one shouldn't listen to "experts", but their scenarios aren't actually implausible or anything. They just didn't fit in with the story Leave was trying to tell.

Sounds quite grim. I'm across the pond, but I know this wave will hit over here too. Which is concerning. Not to mention, that as I said earlier, I have family back in Europe. I have cousins and aunts and uncles living in Spain. As a EU member, I am certain Spain's economy will be affected if Brexit occurs.

I think that in America, we'll see several developments if the EU breaks down, and with the current situation with the EU.

Since many multinationals depended on the headquarters of the UK to do business in the EU, they might move their branches to EU branches in order to avoid a disaster on their current services. This would mean many American dollars leaving the UK and moving somewhere else. It won't be bad for the countries we select to put our headquarters in, but it will be for the UK, as while we might have an exclusive branch for them, we won't be too interested in our service infrastructure down there as opposed to the continent.

Our market globally will be the least affected. Our dollar is still going strong even though it lost 9% of its value overnight, and we can still back our U.S. treasury bonds, and in fact, people might even buy more now that Brexit happened, giving us an unprecedented amount of cash on hand to do more things with it. Our foreign exports to Europe and Asia will be impacted though. As the value of the dollar becomes stronger against the Euro and the Pound, the less and less people will want to buy because of the price hikes we'll have to resort to to bring our profit margin to the same we had before.

[Valaran]

No this is not meant to be profound. Yes some change is shit. You still have to adapt to the shit changes as much as the good ones.

Well, no shit

[Camicon]

Wouldn't that be interesting. What would Ireland, Scotland, and Wales call themselves?

Just a small correction: Wales actually voted Leave.

Hmm. By a thin margin though. I imagine that if Northern Ireland and Scotland both hold referenda of their own then Wales will follow suit, and if NI and Scotland look like they want to hook up with Ireland to stay in the EU that could swing things pretty significantly in Wales.

[Novus America]

Sure. So why are people panicking over change rather than looking forward at how to adapt? This thread is pretty much "OMGs!" "Oh Noes!" over change. The die is cast. Saying it should not have been cast or you do not like the number that came up does nothing.

And yes change is constant. But not consistent. There are aras of small changes. And eras of big ones.

The Brexit is small change in the world order. But it is a symptom of the world order dying. A new world order is coming.

i for one can't for an economic crisis in europe followed by the rise of a new world order hmm yes let us bask in the magic of ~~changes~~

I never said bask in it. I never said the new world order will be good. I merely said it is coming. You do not have to adapt only to the changes you dislike.

[Great Nepal]

I'm sure humanity survived at that level for ages, I'm sure we can do so again. Take a leap, its gonna be fine like with the EU.

Well surely you are joking now. Yes humanity survived as a bunch of anarchic savage apes. But lived to be no more than about 30 years old. And died all the time.

Before we joined EU, we weren't doing so hot either, yet it is justified to leave. How's returning to our original state bad, take back sovereignty and take control of your own destiny?

[Soldati Senza Confini]

I will be honest, I would be more concerned if the exit stocks were being sold at a dramatic speed and we fall even further.

We are remaining stable in the 17,400s as of right now, so it's not time to panic about a market crash yet.

Not about to disagree with you on sentiment, but equity markets are not the be all and end all. In fact, they're pretty irrelevant in the greater scheme of things. You'd get more info out of exchange rates and gilts.

I haven't been checking gilts, but I have been checking exchange rates against the dollar every so often as well, and the coins are remaining fairly stable right now after the hit this morning.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

Sounds quite grim. I'm across the pond, but I know this wave will hit over here too. Which is concerning. Not to mention, that as I said earlier, I have family back in Europe. I have cousins and aunts and uncles living in Spain. As a EU member, I am certain Spain's economy will be affected if Brexit occurs.

I think that in America, we'll see several developments if the EU breaks down, and with the current situation with the EU.

Since many multinationals depended on the headquarters of the UK to do business in the EU, they might move their branches to EU branches in order to avoid a disaster on their current services. This would mean many American dollars leaving the UK and moving somewhere else. It won't be bad for the countries we select to put our headquarters in, but it will be for the UK, as while we might have an exclusive branch for them, we won't be too interested in our service infrastructure down there as opposed to the continent.

Our market globally will be the least affected. Our dollar is still going strong even though it lost 9% of its value overnight, and we can still back our U.S. treasury bonds, and in fact, people might even buy more now that Brexit happened, giving us an unprecedented amount of cash on hand to do more things with it. Our foreign exports to Europe and Asia will be impacted though. As the value of the dollar becomes stronger against the Euro and the Pound, the less and less people will want to buy because of the price hikes we'll have to resort to to bring our profit margin to the same we had before.

Well, Obama said the UK's special business partnerships with the US will maintain their status even if Brexit occurs.
http://news.sky.com/story/1717094/obama ... ill-endure

[Kaztropol]

the UK stabs itself in the face out of spite for the EU. in response to this, scotland stabs itself in the face out of spite for the UK. in response to this, the shetlands stab themselves in the face to spite scotland.

About Shetland...

There was an anecdote I remember reading in one of the newspapers, featuring a comment supposedly by a fairly senior member of the SNP, about the possibility of Shetland voting for independence from Scotland, and taking the oil revenue with them. "They can't do that, it's our oil!".

There's probably some lesson there, about the nature of politicians and the shoe being on the other foot, or something.

[Novus America]

No this is not meant to be profound. Yes some change is shit. You still have to adapt to the shit changes as much as the good ones.

Well, no shit

Many people here do not seem to realize this... The are still in the denial, anger and bargaining phases.

[Valaran]

Hmm. By a thin margin though. I imagine that if Northern Ireland and Scotland both hold referenda of their own then Wales will follow suit

Its doubtful, to say the least.

[Valaran]

Well, no shit

Many people here do not seem to realize this... The are still in the denial, anger and bargaining phases.

Also no shit. Its been one day after an incredibly divisive vote. What did you expect?

[Soldati Senza Confini]

I think that in America, we'll see several developments if the EU breaks down, and with the current situation with the EU.

Since many multinationals depended on the headquarters of the UK to do business in the EU, they might move their branches to EU branches in order to avoid a disaster on their current services. This would mean many American dollars leaving the UK and moving somewhere else. It won't be bad for the countries we select to put our headquarters in, but it will be for the UK, as while we might have an exclusive branch for them, we won't be too interested in our service infrastructure down there as opposed to the continent.

Our market globally will be the least affected. Our dollar is still going strong even though it lost 9% of its value overnight, and we can still back our U.S. treasury bonds, and in fact, people might even buy more now that Brexit happened, giving us an unprecedented amount of cash on hand to do more things with it. Our foreign exports to Europe and Asia will be impacted though. As the value of the dollar becomes stronger against the Euro and the Pound, the less and less people will want to buy because of the price hikes we'll have to resort to to bring our profit margin to the same we had before.

Well, Obama said the UK's special business partnerships with the US will maintain their status even if Brexit occurs.
http://news.sky.com/story/1717094/obama ... ill-endure

The relationships might be there, but the private investment will not.

[Imperializt Russia]

Just a small correction: Wales actually voted Leave.

Hmm. By a thin margin though. I imagine that if Northern Ireland and Scotland both hold referenda of their own then Wales will follow suit, and if NI and Scotland look like they want to hook up with Ireland to stay in the EU that could swing things pretty significantly in Wales.

They voted above the national average though. I doubt you'd get the support to leave England, since "England & Wales" is still a thing. It's quite culturally and politically entwined.

[Indian Empire]

I hope Britain knows what there doing. If It comes up here in the US, I won't be voting to help the Brits. I'd say the Brits are on the brink of disintegrating now. Soon, The Scots and Welsh will have there freedom, and soon everyone will be EU members again. We just need to isolate the Brits. That'll make them remember "oh yeah, if I rejoin the EU, they will help me"

[Novus America]

Well surely you are joking now. Yes humanity survived as a bunch of anarchic savage apes. But lived to be no more than about 30 years old. And died all the time.

Before we joined EU, we weren't doing so hot either, yet it is justified to leave. How's returning to our original state bad, take back sovereignty and take control of your own destiny?

I never said leaving the UK was good or bad. But the orginal state of humanity was bad. But we are not going back to that.

[The Joseon Dynasty]

Just a small correction: Wales actually voted Leave.

Hmm. By a thin margin though. I imagine that if Northern Ireland and Scotland both hold referenda of their own then Wales will follow suit, and if NI and Scotland look like they want to hook up with Ireland to stay in the EU that could swing things pretty significantly in Wales.

Not likely. Wales doesn't have a strong separatist movement. Last opinion polls put support for independence at 10 - 15% in Wales.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

Well, Obama said the UK's special business partnerships with the US will maintain their status even if Brexit occurs.
http://news.sky.com/story/1717094/obama ... ill-endure

The relationships might be there, but the private investment will not.

I guess all I can do is watch and wait.

[Greater Mackonia]

I have deemed this a satisfactory result. Any economic problems are utterly secondary to dismantling Social Humanism.