The UK Referendum on Membership of the European Union

[Teemant]

Well, it's not a free fall, and there have been upturns and down turns all day on the DOW after the "5 minutes of doom" today.

So it's not like we're under a major stock threat right now.

It is just one day of trading anyways.

Probably traders are cautious because they have no idea what's going to happen. Few bad news can change everything instantly.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

"Less British Tourists can afford to go abroad to Spain for holiday"

"Spaniards rejoice"

Don't trust 'em. They might rebuild the Armada...

This one knows too much!

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

Well, my concern is not just for the short term repercussions, but also the long term ones.

"Less British Tourists can afford to go abroad to Spain for holiday"

"Spaniards rejoice"

The British expat community will grow. Whacky stick!

[Souseiseki]

i don't care if boris has to personally sacrifice the blood of 1000 pigs on the altar of charlemange and signs the "we paty the EU big £££ every day forever" deal as long as he finds some way to grandfather us in as EU citizens

[Celibrae]

I am and have always been in favour of the EFTA and EEA option in the event of a leave vote. I stand by this.

[The Islands of Versilia]

Don't trust 'em. They might rebuild the Armada...

This one knows too much!

But I will not be silenced!

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

i don't care if boris has to personally sacrifice the blood of 1000 pigs on the altar of charlemange and signs the "we paty the EU big £££ every day forever" deal as long as he finds some way to grandfather us in as EU citizens

Appeal to your Anglo-Saxon blood. Ask for asylum in Germany.

[Neu Leonstein]

In terms of global economics, what do you think could/might happen? Just as a hypothetical. IIRC, you're very knowledgeable when it comes to economics.

I really don't know. I think it's almost certainly going to be bad for the UK in both the short run (the uncertainty makes people less likely to buy big items or invest in new machines and things) and in the long term (loss of foreign investment and competition, loss of human capital and the like. The Bank of England will do what it can to make sure markets and banks can keep functioning, but on the government spending and taxation side it's just going to be chaos for a while. And in the City of London things could get ugly... a lot depends on very arcane rules that govern whether UK-based financial companies can deal directly with EU clients. If those rules don't survive, a lot of jobs will have to move. Walking through the City this afternoon I overheard conversations about that a few times.

For the world, it depends on the details. Markets don't like the uncertainty and that might limit near term bounce backs. And the big worry is if you get more anti-EU moves in other EU countries too. But either way, if you had plans to invest in the UK or the EU this year, you might hold off on those for a bit until you know more.

Maybe have a look at some of the analysis put together by HM Treasury, the IMF, the OECD and so on. I know that the Leave campaign said (incredibly) that one shouldn't listen to "experts", but their scenarios aren't actually implausible or anything. They just didn't fit in with the story Leave was trying to tell.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Well, it's not a free fall, and there have been upturns and down turns all day on the DOW after the "5 minutes of doom" today.

So it's not like we're under a major stock threat right now.

It is just one day of trading anyways.

I will be honest, I would be more concerned if the exit stocks were being sold at a dramatic speed and we fall even further.

We are remaining stable in the 17,400s as of right now, so it's not time to panic about a market crash yet.

[Souseiseki]

I am and have always been in favour of the EFTA and EEA option in the event of a leave vote. I stand by this.

there are two options here. 1) they tell you to fuck off and you're screwed 2) you join the EFTA and up following all the EU regulations and accepting EU freedom of movement and what was even the point in leaving?

[Souseiseki]

it's also already been outright stated we're not getting a norway/switzerland deal. they are not going to give us a cushy deal. you have fucked up.

[Great Nepal]

Why? I mean every single campaign slogan and speech made by leave campaign equally applies to independence of regions, cities, councils, houses, and individuals.

Because breaking down to the indvidual level is anarchy. I know you dislike the leave campaign but the UK is able to survive on its own. Every region and city is not. Plus changing all borders every election would cause complete chaos.

I'm sure humanity survived at that level for ages, I'm sure we can do so again. Take a leap, its gonna be fine like with the EU.

[Novus America]

Change is coming, for better or worse. You can only adapt to it.

This literally means nothing.

Change will happen is not very prophetic, since that is always the case. Change is a constant.

Sure. So why are people panicking over change rather than looking forward at how to adapt? This thread is pretty much "OMGs!" "Oh Noes!" over change. The die is cast. Saying it should not have been cast or you do not like the number that came up does nothing.

And yes change is constant. But not consistent. There are aras of small changes. And eras of big ones.

The Brexit is small change in the world order. But it is a symptom of the world order dying. A new world order is coming.

[Stormopolis]

it's also already been outright stated we're not getting a norway/switzerland deal. they are not going to give us a cushy deal. you have fucked up.

That's just posturing by the king of alcohol, Juncker. Besides, the majority of British trade doesn't even go to the EU to begin with.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

It is just one day of trading anyways.

Probably traders are cautious because they have no idea what's going to happen. Few bad news can change everything instantly.

If you notice the index right now that is exactly what is indicating.

There was mass histeria at early hours, but right now there's only a couple of people losing their shit and selling.

[Souseiseki]

This literally means nothing.

Change will happen is not very prophetic, since that is always the case. Change is a constant.

Sure. So why are people panicking over change rather than looking forward at how to adapt? This thread is pretty much "OMGs!" "Oh Noes!" over change. The die is cast. Saying it should not have been cast or you do not like the number that came up does nothing.

And yes change is constant. But not consistent. There are aras of small changes. And eras of big ones.

The Brexit is small change in the world order. But it is a symptom of the world order dying. A new world order is coming.

i for one can't for an economic crisis in europe followed by the rise of a new world order hmm yes let us bask in the magic of ~~changes~~

[Maurepas]

Why? I mean every single campaign slogan and speech made by leave campaign equally applies to independence of regions, cities, councils, houses, and individuals.

Because breaking down to the indvidual level is anarchy. I know you dislike the leave campaign but the UK is able to survive on its own. Every region and city is not. Plus changing all borders every election would cause complete chaos.

I don't think that's how it necessarily has to go down. Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, all went Remain, I could see a scenario where they join up with Ireland as a backdoor way to stay in the EU. Northern Ireland seems like it might go that way anyway.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

In terms of global economics, what do you think could/might happen? Just as a hypothetical. IIRC, you're very knowledgeable when it comes to economics.

I really don't know. I think it's almost certainly going to be bad for the UK in both the short run (the uncertainty makes people less likely to buy big items or invest in new machines and things) and in the long term (loss of foreign investment and competition, loss of human capital and the like. The Bank of England will do what it can to make sure markets and banks can keep functioning, but on the government spending and taxation side it's just going to be chaos for a while. And in the City of London things could get ugly... a lot depends on very arcane rules that govern whether UK-based financial companies can deal directly with EU clients. If those rules don't survive, a lot of jobs will have to move. Walking through the City this afternoon I overheard conversations about that a few times.

For the world, it depends on the details. Markets don't like the uncertainty and that might limit near term bounce backs. And the big worry is if you get more anti-EU moves in other EU countries too. But either way, if you had plans to invest in the UK or the EU this year, you might hold off on those for a bit until you know more.

Maybe have a look at some of the analysis put together by HM Treasury, the IMF, the OECD and so on. I know that the Leave campaign said (incredibly) that one shouldn't listen to "experts", but their scenarios aren't actually implausible or anything. They just didn't fit in with the story Leave was trying to tell.

Sounds quite grim. I'm across the pond, but I know this wave will hit over here too. Which is concerning. Not to mention, that as I said earlier, I have family back in Europe. I have cousins and aunts and uncles living in Spain. As a EU member, I am certain Spain's economy will be affected if Brexit occurs.

[Novus America]

Because breaking down to the indvidual level is anarchy. I know you dislike the leave campaign but the UK is able to survive on its own. Every region and city is not. Plus changing all borders every election would cause complete chaos.

I'm sure humanity survived at that level for ages, I'm sure we can do so again. Take a leap, its gonna be fine like with the EU.

Well surely you are joking now. Yes humanity survived as a bunch of anarchic savage apes. But lived to be no more than about 30 years old. And died all the time.

[Valaran]

Sure. So why are people panicking over change rather than looking forward at how to adapt? This thread is pretty much "OMGs!" "Oh Noes!" over change. The die is cast. Saying it should not have been cast or you do not like the number that came up does nothing.

Becuase some change is shit. Maybe people are even just voicing their opinions, like you yourself are doing.

And yes change is constant. But not consistent. There are aras of small changes. And eras of big ones.

The Brexit is small change in the world order. But it is a symptom of the world order dying. A new world order is coming.

Is this meant to be profound.

[The Joseon Dynasty]

I'm sure humanity survived at that level for ages, I'm sure we can do so again. Take a leap, its gonna be fine like with the EU.

Well surely you are joking now. Yes humanity survived as a bunch of anarchic savage apes. But lived to be no more than about 30 years old. And died all the time.

Stop scaremongering.

[Camicon]

Because breaking down to the indvidual level is anarchy. I know you dislike the leave campaign but the UK is able to survive on its own. Every region and city is not. Plus changing all borders every election would cause complete chaos.

I don't think that's how it necessarily has to go down. Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, all went Remain, I could see a scenario where they join up with Ireland as a backdoor way to stay in the EU. Northern Ireland seems like it might go that way anyway.

Wouldn't that be interesting. What would Ireland, Scotland, and Wales call themselves?

[Kaztropol]

The UK net contribution to the EU runs in the order of £4-5 Bn. Net, that is. The contribution is on the order of ~12Bn or thereabouts, and there are receipts (CAP payments, regional development funds etc) of ~7Bn

So. 4-5Bn. Sure sounds like a lot of money, doesn't it ?

The last UK budget, allocated spending of nearly ~600 Bn, of which the NHS is ~130 Bn and pensions ~110 Bn

the net contribution isn't even one percent of central government spending, and even if it was spent only on pensions and the NHS, would only raise them by 2%

2% changes in spending is like, comparable to adjustments that the Government has to make due to inflation or tax receipts being higher/lower than forecast.

This is why democracy occasionally fumbles. Because democracy works best when the populace is informed.

BRITAIN SENDS THE EU £350M EACH WEEK ! screams the billboard. Whilst omitting that UK government spending is ~£11,000M each week.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

In terms of global economics, what do you think could/might happen? Just as a hypothetical. IIRC, you're very knowledgeable when it comes to economics.

I really don't know. I think it's almost certainly going to be bad for the UK in both the short run (the uncertainty makes people less likely to buy big items or invest in new machines and things) and in the long term (loss of foreign investment and competition, loss of human capital and the like. The Bank of England will do what it can to make sure markets and banks can keep functioning, but on the government spending and taxation side it's just going to be chaos for a while. And in the City of London things could get ugly... a lot depends on very arcane rules that govern whether UK-based financial companies can deal directly with EU clients. If those rules don't survive, a lot of jobs will have to move. Walking through the City this afternoon I overheard conversations about that a few times.

For the world, it depends on the details. Markets don't like the uncertainty and that might limit near term bounce backs. And the big worry is if you get more anti-EU moves in other EU countries too. But either way, if you had plans to invest in the UK or the EU this year, you might hold off on those for a bit until you know more.

Maybe have a look at some of the analysis put together by HM Treasury, the IMF, the OECD and so on. I know that the Leave campaign said (incredibly) that one shouldn't listen to "experts", but their scenarios aren't actually implausible or anything. They just didn't fit in with the story Leave was trying to tell.

+1 for your analysis. I think you are on the mark on everything, at least on the short term.

[Teemant]

it's also already been outright stated we're not getting a norway/switzerland deal. they are not going to give us a cushy deal. you have fucked up.

That's just posturing by the king of alcohol, Juncker. Besides, the majority of British trade doesn't even go to the EU to begin with.

It goes.