[US Election 2016] Democratic Primary Megathread II

[Geilinor]

Clinton has revived the public option.

Good on her.

Maybe this is what Sanders hoped to accomplish at the very least.

If pulling her slightly left was one of Sanders' goals, it's working.

[Kelinfort]

Clinton has revived the public option.

Finally, a tilt leftward I actually like.

[Corrian]

Too bad California is last, IIRC. Without having looked at poll data, I feel that's apt to be a state where he has a chance, and probably one of if not the largest single chunk of delegates.

Last I saw he was within 12% of Hillary in California, and that has to have been months ago by now. I haven't seen a recent update for that at all.

[Ostroeuropa]

Good on her.

Maybe this is what Sanders hoped to accomplish at the very least.

If pulling her slightly left was one of Sanders' goals, it's working.

If she sticks to it, I expect that's a wrap on the election.

[Geilinor]

Too bad California is last, IIRC. Without having looked at poll data, I feel that's apt to be a state where he has a chance, and probably one of if not the largest single chunk of delegates.

Last I saw he was within 12% of Hillary in California, and that has to have been months ago by now. I haven't seen a recent update for that at all.

California should move its primary up. The candidates should be forced to fight for votes in the biggest state and maybe it will drive Republican candidates more moderate.

[Alouite]

Last I saw he was within 12% of Hillary in California, and that has to have been months ago by now. I haven't seen a recent update for that at all.

California should move its primary up. The candidates should be forced to fight for votes in the biggest state and maybe it will drive Republican candidates more moderate.

So true.

[Corrian]

[I don't know why you keep talking about Massachusetts like you think his hold on it is sketchy. He was polling ahead of Clinton last time anyone took a poll, and in most places where opinions have changed, Sanders has gained ground.

Compared to when he started, he has pretty much gained ground in literally every state. Maybe not enough to win stuff, but still, he has pretty much gained everywhere. He's pointed that out a few times how he used to be 50% behind in places like Iowa, and look how that turned out, and 30% in New Hampshire (Where he won by 22%)

I have a feeling before too long though, we're going to have some states where Hillary wins pretty drastically.

Of course, one for Bernie is coming up where he pretty much shatters as well....*Cough* Vermont *Cough*

Clinton has revived the public option.

I don't entirely know what this means, but if I can believe that she actually will stick to it, that sounds good. Again, as has been said, I really do think Sanders wins in a sense no matter what, because he is pushing candidates more this way and that way because it is shown that people WANT this stuff.

[Ever-Wandering Souls]

Sanders has explicitly ruled out any third party/independent bid and said he will be supporting whoever is the nominee (and encourages his supporters to do the same because there is too much at stake).

And Trump signed a contract

[Galloism]

Sanders has explicitly ruled out any third party/independent bid and said he will be supporting whoever is the nominee (and encourages his supporters to do the same because there is too much at stake).

And Trump signed a contract

Trump has kind of a history of worming his way out of contracts, though.

[Ever-Wandering Souls]

And Trump signed a contract

Trump has kind of a history of worming his way out of contracts, though.

Which was my point, he's already threateningly said several times that the RNC has failed to uphold their end.

That said, I agree that Bernie is unlikely to similarly reengage on his promise there.

[Farnhamia]

Trump has kind of a history of worming his way out of contracts, though.

Which was my point, he's already threateningly said several times that the RNC has failed to uphold their end.

That said, I agree that Bernie is unlikely to similarly reengage on his promise there.

After all, the RNC let that awful Megyn What's-Her-Face moderate that debate, so yeah, deal's already broken.

[Galloism]

Which was my point, he's already threateningly said several times that the RNC has failed to uphold their end.

That said, I agree that Bernie is unlikely to similarly reengage on his promise there.

After all, the RNC let that awful Megyn What's-Her-Face moderate that debate, so yeah, deal's already broken.

She had blood coming out of her wherever, you know.

[Myrensis]

I don't know why you keep talking about Massachusetts like you think his hold on it is sketchy. He was polling ahead of Clinton last time anyone took a poll, and in most places where opinions have changed, Sanders has gained ground.

Compared to when he started, he has pretty much gained ground in literally every state. Maybe not enough to win stuff, but still, he has pretty much gained everywhere. He's pointed that out a few times how he used to be 50% behind in places like Iowa, and look how that turned out, and 30% in New Hampshire (Where he won by 22%)

I have a feeling before too long though, we're going to have some states where Hillary wins pretty drastically.

Of course, one for Bernie is coming up where he pretty much shatters as well....*Cough* Vermont *Cough*

Bernie will obviously smash Vermont, he may take Massachusetts and Minnesota as well. Problem is, it's looking pretty bleak outside of those 3, and if Hillary routes him everywhere else on Super Tuesday, it's going to more or less solidify the notion that Sanders is the candidate for college slacktivists and white progressives and...pretty much nobody else, so he'll be in he hole in terms of primaries and be fighting against the perceptions of his own weakness, not good times.

[Farnhamia]

After all, the RNC let that awful Megyn What's-Her-Face moderate that debate, so yeah, deal's already broken.

She had blood coming out of her wherever, you know.

I heard that. Disgusting.

[Kelinfort]

Just had a conversation with my grandfather on who he'll vote for. For context, this is a man who has voted Republican in every election since 1980 (except 1992, when he voted for Ross Perot), has only voted Democratic in 1964 and 1976, and voted against Obama twice. He is pretty conservative, especially on foreign policy, supports foreign intervention, and generally supports fiscally conservative policies. He supported Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr., Dole, Bush Jr., McCain and Romney and registers as a Republican.

So I was shocked when I heard he plans to vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election and doesn't even plan to participate in our state primary come June. I really was blown away and asked for his explanation.

He referenced Trump and Cruz as the primary reasons he won't be voting Republican. I pressed him on perhaps Rubio or Kasich; he said he would consider Kasich on the off chance he was nominated, but not Rubio.

(reposted here for convenience)

Thoughts?

[Stoic Melancholics]

Eh, is there a debate tonight I'm unaware of?

[Mushet]

Compared to when he started, he has pretty much gained ground in literally every state. Maybe not enough to win stuff, but still, he has pretty much gained everywhere. He's pointed that out a few times how he used to be 50% behind in places like Iowa, and look how that turned out, and 30% in New Hampshire (Where he won by 22%)

I have a feeling before too long though, we're going to have some states where Hillary wins pretty drastically.

Of course, one for Bernie is coming up where he pretty much shatters as well....*Cough* Vermont *Cough*

Bernie will obviously smash Vermont, he may take Massachusetts and Minnesota as well. Problem is, it's looking pretty bleak outside of those 3, and if Hillary routes him everywhere else on Super Tuesday, it's going to more or less solidify the notion that Sanders is the candidate for college slacktivists and white progressives and...pretty much nobody else, so he'll be in he hole in terms of primaries and be fighting against the perceptions of his own weakness, not good times.

I've actually seen a truck with a Sanders bumper sticker in East Los, we'll see.

[The Romulan Republic]

Just had a conversation with my grandfather on who he'll vote for. For context, this is a man who has voted Republican in every election since 1980 (except 1992, when he voted for Ross Perot), has only voted Democratic in 1964 and 1976, and voted against Obama twice. He is pretty conservative, especially on foreign policy, supports foreign intervention, and generally supports fiscally conservative policies. He supported Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr., Dole, Bush Jr., McCain and Romney and registers as a Republican.

So I was shocked when I heard he plans to vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election and doesn't even plan to participate in our state primary come June. I really was blown away and asked for his explanation.

He referenced Trump and Cruz as the primary reasons he won't be voting Republican. I pressed him on perhaps Rubio or Kasich; he said he would consider Kasich on the off chance he was nominated, but not Rubio.

(reposted here for convenience)

Thoughts?

A sane Republican. Who'd have thought it, in this day and age?

[Othelos]

Just had a conversation with my grandfather on who he'll vote for. For context, this is a man who has voted Republican in every election since 1980 (except 1992, when he voted for Ross Perot), has only voted Democratic in 1964 and 1976, and voted against Obama twice. He is pretty conservative, especially on foreign policy, supports foreign intervention, and generally supports fiscally conservative policies. He supported Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr., Dole, Bush Jr., McCain and Romney and registers as a Republican.

So I was shocked when I heard he plans to vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election and doesn't even plan to participate in our state primary come June. I really was blown away and asked for his explanation.

He referenced Trump and Cruz as the primary reasons he won't be voting Republican. I pressed him on perhaps Rubio or Kasich; he said he would consider Kasich on the off chance he was nominated, but not Rubio.

(reposted here for convenience)

Thoughts?

A lot of republicans feel really negatively toward Cruz and/or Trump. Kasich needs to drop out to let Rubio gain more votes, because he is much less equipped (and popular) to win the primaries. As long as the establishment field remains divided, none of them have a chance to take down either Cruz or Trump (but mainly Trump).

[Ngelmish]

Compared to when he started, he has pretty much gained ground in literally every state. Maybe not enough to win stuff, but still, he has pretty much gained everywhere. He's pointed that out a few times how he used to be 50% behind in places like Iowa, and look how that turned out, and 30% in New Hampshire (Where he won by 22%)

I have a feeling before too long though, we're going to have some states where Hillary wins pretty drastically.

Of course, one for Bernie is coming up where he pretty much shatters as well....*Cough* Vermont *Cough*

Bernie will obviously smash Vermont, he may take Massachusetts and Minnesota as well. Problem is, it's looking pretty bleak outside of those 3, and if Hillary routes him everywhere else on Super Tuesday, it's going to more or less solidify the notion that Sanders is the candidate for college slacktivists and white progressives and...pretty much nobody else, so he'll be in he hole in terms of primaries and be fighting against the perceptions of his own weakness, not good times.

Obviously things are still a little uncertain, but, barring a completely unexpected rout in South Carolina, I think not winning Nevada is the beginning of the end for Bernie. We'll see what happens of course, but he needed to do better than just have a case for continuing, he needed to deny Clinton a comeback.

I for one won't be complaining if, from the mathematical perspective, Clinton pulls decisively ahead on Super Tuesday, but it will still be in Bernie's hands how good of thing that is. If he continues to run up to the convention, and he very well might, how hard is he going to keep hitting her? How many of his supporters will cling to a terminal campaign and deepen their personal antipathy towards Clinton? (Note, I am not ascribing antipathy towards Clinton to Sanders himself or his supporters across the board).

Either way, while I think there's an above average chance that Hillary Clinton wraps it up in March, this won't be a cause for celebration on either side. Instead of a really robust debate, this primary cycle has played out as bizarre kabuki theater and I fully expect Sanders to keep campaigning in an effort to exercise influence. He has no reason not to do so and at that point less reason to police the tone of his campaign, something he's already had some trouble with.

[Corrian]

Yeah, with seeing some of the polling, I was really hoping Sanders would win Nevada, because if he won a place where it was supposed to be safe for her even remotely, that would look pretty good for him. But he lost, while not substantially, noteworthy enough. But still, him being with 5 points of a place where she was a clear winner is still pretty impressive.

It seems like the turnout was pretty crappy in Nevada as a whole, though.

[USS Monitor]

Sanders has explicitly ruled out any third party/independent bid and said he will be supporting whoever is the nominee (and encourages his supporters to do the same because there is too much at stake).

And Trump signed a contract

Trump is running for president for the ego trip. Sanders isn't. Sanders actually gives a shit about the issues he's been campaigning on, and he's not going to risk splitting the liberal vote by running as an independent because that wouldn't help with his pet issues.

[USS Monitor]

Just had a conversation with my grandfather on who he'll vote for. For context, this is a man who has voted Republican in every election since 1980 (except 1992, when he voted for Ross Perot), has only voted Democratic in 1964 and 1976, and voted against Obama twice. He is pretty conservative, especially on foreign policy, supports foreign intervention, and generally supports fiscally conservative policies. He supported Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr., Dole, Bush Jr., McCain and Romney and registers as a Republican.

So I was shocked when I heard he plans to vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election and doesn't even plan to participate in our state primary come June. I really was blown away and asked for his explanation.

He referenced Trump and Cruz as the primary reasons he won't be voting Republican. I pressed him on perhaps Rubio or Kasich; he said he would consider Kasich on the off chance he was nominated, but not Rubio.

(reposted here for convenience)

Thoughts?

He has a working brain.

[USS Monitor]

Bernie will obviously smash Vermont, he may take Massachusetts and Minnesota as well. Problem is, it's looking pretty bleak outside of those 3, and if Hillary routes him everywhere else on Super Tuesday, it's going to more or less solidify the notion that Sanders is the candidate for college slacktivists and white progressives and...pretty much nobody else, so he'll be in he hole in terms of primaries and be fighting against the perceptions of his own weakness, not good times.

Obviously things are still a little uncertain, but, barring a completely unexpected rout in South Carolina, I think not winning Nevada is the beginning of the end for Bernie. We'll see what happens of course, but he needed to do better than just have a case for continuing, he needed to deny Clinton a comeback.

I for one won't be complaining if, from the mathematical perspective, Clinton pulls decisively ahead on Super Tuesday, but it will still be in Bernie's hands how good of thing that is. If he continues to run up to the convention, and he very well might, how hard is he going to keep hitting her? How many of his supporters will cling to a terminal campaign and deepen their personal antipathy towards Clinton? (Note, I am not ascribing antipathy towards Clinton to Sanders himself or his supporters across the board).

Either way, while I think there's an above average chance that Hillary Clinton wraps it up in March, this won't be a cause for celebration on either side. Instead of a really robust debate, this primary cycle has played out as bizarre kabuki theater and I fully expect Sanders to keep campaigning in an effort to exercise influence. He has no reason not to do so and at that point less reason to police the tone of his campaign, something he's already had some trouble with.

If he's going to lose anyway, I'd love to see him go flying off the handle at the establishment and Donald Trump. Go out with a bang, so to speak.

[Corrian]

Wow, the poll is only 1/2 more votes for Bernie Sanders than Hillary now. It evened out some recently.