[US Election 2016] Democratic Primary Megathread II

[USS Monitor]

Yes, he's also going after Bernie, but come on -- some guy called him "Bernie Sandwiches" and he really does have bad hair. You can't expect a comedian not to joke about that stuff. Someone really should have explained to Bernie Sanders before he started his campaign that a lot of people watch election coverage on TV, and how you look can affect people's impressions of you when they see you on TV. I know Bernie's old enough to remember before everyone had TVs when I lot of people would listen to the debates on the radio and you could get away with terrible hair. I remember it too and I sometimes miss those days, but that was a long time ago. You'd think he would have noticed by now that working class people have access to TVs and/or YouTube.

Hey, I'm not against his jokes, I just like to see him make more jokes towards Hillary

He does make jokes about Hillary, though.

[Corrian]

He does make jokes about Hillary, though.

Fair enough. I do think he has done more lately, too.

[Conservative Republic Of Huang]

I think Sanders needs to step up his game and go after Hillary more. He doesn't need to attack her - the facts are on his side. I don't think he's been aggressive enough in that regard.

They both have promised to keep it respectable, and not to devolve into mudslinging like the Republicans.

[Camicon]

I think Sanders needs to step up his game and go after Hillary more. He doesn't need to attack her - the facts are on his side. I don't think he's been aggressive enough in that regard.

They both have promised to keep it respectable, and not to devolve into mudslinging like the Republicans.

"Being aggressive" is not synonymous with "mudslinging".

[Jordkloden]

I miss Bernie's crazy old man hair.

Jon Stewart made him shape up.

[John King]

They both have promised to keep it respectable, and not to devolve into mudslinging like the Republicans.

"Being aggressive" is not synonymous with "mudslinging".

I couldn't agree more, and as I pointed out in my previous post; Sanders needs to be a little more aggressive if he is to actually get the nomination. Which is beginning to look very unlikely. She has an unbelievable lead in the delegate count, and provided that she wins South Carolina, she will have won back-to-back states. Which as we all know, is extraordinary momentum in a fairly competitive race like this.

[Ashmoria]

"Being aggressive" is not synonymous with "mudslinging".

I couldn't agree more, and as I pointed out in my previous post; Sanders needs to be a little more aggressive if he is to actually get the nomination. Which is beginning to look very unlikely. She has an unbelievable lead in the delegate count, and provided that she wins South Carolina, she will have won back-to-back states. Which as we all know, is extraordinary momentum in a fairly competitive race like this.

super delegates shouldn't be counted at this point. they can and will flip if Bernie starts winning big.

[Khadgar]

I couldn't agree more, and as I pointed out in my previous post; Sanders needs to be a little more aggressive if he is to actually get the nomination. Which is beginning to look very unlikely. She has an unbelievable lead in the delegate count, and provided that she wins South Carolina, she will have won back-to-back states. Which as we all know, is extraordinary momentum in a fairly competitive race like this.

super delegates shouldn't be counted at this point. they can and will flip if Bernie starts winning big.

Yep, they did in 08.

[Ashmoria]

super delegates shouldn't be counted at this point. they can and will flip if Bernie starts winning big.

Yep, they did in 08.

and while I don't think its likely that they will this time, they surely could if Bernie sanders starts to get the same kind of wins that he got in NH.

[Khadgar]

Yep, they did in 08.

and while I don't think its likely that they will this time, they surely could if Bernie sanders starts to get the same kind of wins that he got in NH.

Next several states don't look encouraging for him. Figure at some point the media will develop a Hillary's Momentum narrative and go back to ignoring Bernie.

[Ashmoria]

and while I don't think its likely that they will this time, they surely could if Bernie sanders starts to get the same kind of wins that he got in NH.

Next several states don't look encouraging for him. Figure at some point the media will develop a Hillary's Momentum narrative and go back to ignoring Bernie.

most likely.

by super Tuesday Bernie has filled his function in the story line and the msm can start focusing on how Hillary will do in the general election.

[Kelinfort]

Next several states don't look encouraging for him. Figure at some point the media will develop a Hillary's Momentum narrative and go back to ignoring Bernie.

most likely.

by super Tuesday Bernie has filled his function in the story line and the msm can start focusing on how Hillary will do in the general election.

Meanwhile the GOP shitstorm has just begun.

[Ever-Wandering Souls]

Food for thought -

If Clinton wins the nom, but by a close margin before supers, and the Cruz and Rubio trade enough wins with trump that the convention is brokered and trump is not picked, but trump runs independent anyways, do you think Sanders would throw in his independent hat as well, or realize his only real shot at winning nationally is as the dem nom and let Hillary sweep the resulting mess easily?

[Kelinfort]

Food for thought -

If Clinton wins the nom, but by a close margin before supers, and the Cruz and Rubio trade enough wins with trump that the convention is brokered and trump is not picked, but trump runs independent anyways, do you think Sanders would throw in his independent hat as well, or realize his only real shot at winning nationally is as the dem nom and let Hillary sweep the resulting mess easily?

I don't think so, although it would do Hillary good to nominate him or Warren for VP.

[Ashmoria]

most likely.

by super Tuesday Bernie has filled his function in the story line and the msm can start focusing on how Hillary will do in the general election.

Meanwhile the GOP shitstorm has just begun.

yeah but its going to be useless. they cant stop Donald trump NOW. they should have brought him down months ago.

[Kelinfort]

Meanwhile the GOP shitstorm has just begun.

yeah but its going to be useless. they cant stop Donald trump NOW. they should have brought him down months ago.

Technically, they could, but it'll require everyone coalesce around one guy before he gets a majority of delegates and then basically hoping some defect from him. Ultimately, Trump's gonna be furious and probably will run as a third party.

[Ever-Wandering Souls]

Meanwhile the GOP shitstorm has just begun.

yeah but its going to be useless. they cant stop Donald trump NOW. they should have brought him down months ago.

At risk of going off topic -

If/when Carson and Kasich drop out, their votes will likely go more to Cruz and Rubio than Trump, perhaps enough to bring one or both of them close enough to win some state - and if both, perhaps they'll win enough that no one has a majority. If rubio somehow drops, cruz probably has it in the bag, though if cruz drops more of his supporters are apt to go trump.

Whereas, even if we had three strong dems, the supers would likely crush any such confusion.

[Ashmoria]

Food for thought -

If Clinton wins the nom, but by a close margin before supers, and the Cruz and Rubio trade enough wins with trump that the convention is brokered and trump is not picked, but trump runs independent anyways, do you think Sanders would throw in his independent hat as well, or realize his only real shot at winning nationally is as the dem nom and let Hillary sweep the resulting mess easily?

sanders wouldn't run as an independent. his only strength is by allying with the democratic party so he cant burn that bridge. his success is in dragging the party back toward the left where it belongs.

[Kelinfort]

yeah but its going to be useless. they cant stop Donald trump NOW. they should have brought him down months ago.

At risk of going off topic -

If/when Carson and Kasich drop out, their votes will likely go more to Cruz and Rubio than Trump, perhaps enough to bring one or both of them close enough to win some state - and if both, perhaps they'll win enough that no one has a majority. If rubio somehow drops, cruz probably has it in the bag, though if cruz drops more of his supporters are apt to go trump.

Whereas, even if we had three strong dems, the supers would likely crush any such confusion.

As undemocratic as superdelegates are, this is why they're needed.

And if an outsider candidate does start winning big, the superdelegates can defect anyway.

[Theocretes]

Food for thought -

If Clinton wins the nom, but by a close margin before supers, and the Cruz and Rubio trade enough wins with trump that the convention is brokered and trump is not picked, but trump runs independent anyways, do you think Sanders would throw in his independent hat as well, or realize his only real shot at winning nationally is as the dem nom and let Hillary sweep the resulting mess easily?

sanders wouldn't run as an independent. his only strength is by allying with the democratic party so he cant burn that bridge. his success is in dragging the party back toward the left where it belongs.

Listen: Even if Bernie loses do you think he will drive Hillary more to the left?

[Camicon]

sanders wouldn't run as an independent. his only strength is by allying with the democratic party so he cant burn that bridge. his success is in dragging the party back toward the left where it belongs.

Listen: Even if Bernie loses do you think he will drive Hillary more to the left?

That remains to be seen, but he's certainly dragged her rhetoric and campaign promises farther left.

[Samnoreg]

sanders wouldn't run as an independent. his only strength is by allying with the democratic party so he cant burn that bridge. his success is in dragging the party back toward the left where it belongs.

Listen: Even if Bernie loses do you think he will drive Hillary more to the left?

If Bernie drops out of the race, I have a feeling the leftward drift that we've seen from Hillary will reverse back towards the centre-right.

[Ever-Wandering Souls]

Listen: Even if Bernie loses do you think he will drive Hillary more to the left?

If Bernie drops out of the race, I have a feeling the leftward drift that we've seen from Hillary will reverse back towards the centre-right.

Indeed, Because when they have no other option with a shot at winning, his supporters as a whole will choose her over the GOP no matter what she does.

[John King]

yeah but its going to be useless. they cant stop Donald trump NOW. they should have brought him down months ago.

At risk of going off topic -

If/when Carson and Kasich drop out, their votes will likely go more to Cruz and Rubio than Trump, perhaps enough to bring one or both of them close enough to win some state - and if both, perhaps they'll win enough that no one has a majority. If rubio somehow drops, cruz probably has it in the bag, though if cruz drops more of his supporters are apt to go trump.

Whereas, even if we had three strong dems, the supers would likely crush any such confusion.

While a portion of your argument is true, it doesn't go without saying that the Trump and Cruz supporters overlap. As for Rubio and his supporters; they tend to be along the lines of the mainstream, pro-business conservatives. That demographic most definitely appeals to Trump and his business credentials, not to mention that the Cruz-Rubio conflict is looking like it's still going on. Therefore it is reasonable to say that a portion of the "establishment" vote will drift to Trump, just not in as large of numbers as someone such as Rubio. A Cruz campaign spokesperson said that they are upping the anti-Rubio ads, so this tension will most likely continue throughout the rest of February and into Super Tuesday. If the party is truly serious about stopping him; then they have to do it now.

Realistically-speaking though, Trump is most likely going to cruise through the SEC states; save Texas and perhaps Arkansas.

As for the Democratic side of the race; Sanders will really only be able to compete in North Eastern states, unless he pulls within single digits in South Carolina; which is beginning to look less and less likely with the RCP average showing him down 33% to Secretary Clinton's 57%. On Super Tuesday, expect him to at least win Vermont (home state) and possibly Massachusetts.

[Khadgar]

Listen: Even if Bernie loses do you think he will drive Hillary more to the left?

If Bernie drops out of the race, I have a feeling the leftward drift that we've seen from Hillary will reverse back towards the centre-right.

By American standards Hillary isn't close to center-right. She's arguably close to center-left, but extremists rarely win the White House.