Are We or Aren't We Alone the Universe?

[Maljaratas]

The Fermi paradox refers to type 2 and beyond civs, I don't think that we are restricting our definition of technologically advanced to them.

But if there is an abundance of Type 1 and below civs, yet a lack of Type 2 and above civs...

...then that would imply that the Great Filter is somewhere between Type 1 and Type 2, which, in layman's terms, means we're totally screwed.

I did read the article. And that is a scary concept. However, there is still most likely life somewhere outside the solar system.

[Senkaku]

The Fermi paradox refers to type 2 and beyond civs, I don't think that we are restricting our definition of technologically advanced to them.

But if there is an abundance of Type 1 and below civs, yet a lack of Type 2 and above civs...

...then that would imply that the Great Filter is somewhere between Type 1 and Type 2, which, in layman's terms, means we're totally screwed.

We already knew that, though. I think Hiroshima got the point across.

[The Great Devourer of All]

The Fermi paradox refers to type 2 and beyond civs, I don't think that we are restricting our definition of technologically advanced to them.

But if there is an abundance of Type 1 and below civs, yet a lack of Type 2 and above civs...

...then that would imply that the Great Filter is somewhere between Type 1 and Type 2, which, in layman's terms, means we're totally screwed.

Not for at least a few hundred years, though.

Also, look into some explanations for the Fermi Paradox. My favorites are that we're looking for the wrong things (sorta like a blind dude saying a city at night is empty because there's no walkie talkie traffic), that there's a predator race, or that physical colonization and interaction is a stupid concept to advanced species.

[Constantinopolis]

What makes you think that the chances of there being other sentient species are higher than the chances of there being perfect copies of Earth? We've never found either one or the other. Between two things we have never seen, how can you be so certain which is more likely?

We don't know what the odds of our evolution were. Our existence may be astronomically improbable.

For all we know, there are impossibly advanced aliens busily colonizing solar systems only a few hundred or a few thousand light-years away and we could not see or hear them because of the lightspeed delay, because they are so far away and we have only so recently gained the capabilities to *maybe* notice them.

Right. But I'm arguing against people who say that there must be other civilizations out there simply because the universe is big.

And I'm saying that specific argument is utter nonsense and it basically amounts to jumping to conclusions for no reason at all.

When you don't know the odds of X happening, there's no reason to assume that X must be common in the universe.

[Maljaratas]

But if there is an abundance of Type 1 and below civs, yet a lack of Type 2 and above civs...

...then that would imply that the Great Filter is somewhere between Type 1 and Type 2, which, in layman's terms, means we're totally screwed.

Not for at least a few hundred years, though.

Also, look into some explanations for the Fermi Paradox. My favorites are that we're looking for the wrong things (sorta like a blind dude saying a city at night is empty because there's no walkie talkie traffic), that there's a predator race, or that physical colonization and interaction is a stupid concept to advanced species.

Your nation nicely portrays the predator concept.

[Anywhere Else But Here]

No one is claiming that there are perfect copies of Earth or humans. But claiming that we're the only sentient species is almost as ridiculous as claiming that our asteroid belt is the only asteroid belt.

What makes you think that the chances of there being other sentient species are higher than the chances of there being perfect copies of Earth? We've never found either one or the other. Between two things we have never seen, how can you be so certain which is more likely?

We don't know what the odds of our evolution were. Our existence may be astronomically improbable.

The Universe is an astronomical place.

[Northwest Slobovia]

The Fermi paradox refers to type 2 and beyond civs, I don't think that we are restricting our definition of technologically advanced to them.

But if there is an abundance of Type 1 and below civs, yet a lack of Type 2 and above civs...

...then that would imply that the Great Filter is somewhere between Type 1 and Type 2, which, in layman's terms, means we're totally screwed.

Why? It may mean nothing more than the development of radio (for example) is very rare. For all we know, we lucked out on people figuring out electromagetism, and most civilizations take much, much longer to do so from Newtonian physics (for example) than we did. This is the problem of reasoning from ignorance: we simply don't know.

[Napkiraly]

The Fermi paradox refers to type 2 and beyond civs, I don't think that we are restricting our definition of technologically advanced to them.

But if there is an abundance of Type 1 and below civs, yet a lack of Type 2 and above civs...

...then that would imply that the Great Filter is somewhere between Type 1 and Type 2, which, in layman's terms, means we're totally screwed.

Well, no. Not necessarily. On one hand, I'm very cynical about humans and generally hold tons of hidden rage and contempt towards a lot of the stupid things our species continues to do and believe. On the other hand, I do think we'll manage to pull through, though not without much suffering and tribulation.

[Faustian Fantasies]

We don't know what the odds of our evolution were. Our existence may be astronomically improbable.

yet, improbable things are actually very common.

[The Wolven League]

The Dark Ones are with us, obviously. And they want peace.

[Senkaku]

For all we know, there are impossibly advanced aliens busily colonizing solar systems only a few hundred or a few thousand light-years away and we could not see or hear them because of the lightspeed delay, because they are so far away and we have only so recently gained the capabilities to *maybe* notice them.

Right. But I'm arguing against people who say that there must be other civilizations out there simply because the universe is big.

And I'm saying that specific argument is utter nonsense and it basically amounts to jumping to conclusions for no reason at all.

When you don't know the odds of X happening, there's no reason to assume that X must be common in the universe.

I mean, we can estimate the odds, and even if the chance is so miniscule as to basically be impossible, the universe is large enough it has likely happened elsewhere, and if there are not alien civilizations now, then there have been or will be alien civilizations.

[Napkiraly]

But if there is an abundance of Type 1 and below civs, yet a lack of Type 2 and above civs...

...then that would imply that the Great Filter is somewhere between Type 1 and Type 2, which, in layman's terms, means we're totally screwed.

We already knew that, though. I think Hiroshima got the point across.

How does the atomic bombing of Hiroshima get the point across that we are for certain going to be screwed?

[Empire of Donner land]

We already knew that, though. I think Hiroshima got the point across.

How does the atomic bombing of Hiroshima get the point across that we are for certain going to be screwed?

Nuclear Weapons: Bad.

[Maljaratas]

How does the atomic bombing of Hiroshima get the point across that we are for certain going to be screwed?

Nuclear Weapons: Bad.

We can survive nukes. An equal sized amount of antimatter on the other hand...

[Napkiraly]

How does the atomic bombing of Hiroshima get the point across that we are for certain going to be screwed?

Nuclear Weapons: Bad.

The development of nuclear weapons =/= we are for certain doomed.

[Valrifell]

The Fermi paradox refers to type 2 and beyond civs, I don't think that we are restricting our definition of technologically advanced to them.

But if there is an abundance of Type 1 and below civs, yet a lack of Type 2 and above civs...

...then that would imply that the Great Filter is somewhere between Type 1 and Type 2, which, in layman's terms, means we're totally screwed.

Good thing we're only a Type 0 civilization, then

How does the atomic bombing of Hiroshima get the point across that we are for certain going to be screwed?

Nuclear Weapons: Bad.

Nuclear Weapons: Prevent World War with the threat of complete global obliteration.

[Moria Nova]

/del

[Evanescens]

I will keep my response to myself, but will question the relevancy of this matter. Suppose there is another life in the universe -- at one of the 10²³ star systems in the universe, or the vast space in between. What does it matter to a creature that will be dead in 100 years? Yes, no, may be -- what is the difference to you, really? Since toddlers do not play this game, the real number is closer to 50 years. It is not even a blip on the universal scale, and one in 10²³ is far less of a blip. Perhaps your question is wrong on the universal scale.

What do you all think? What is your response to a question that has been asked for decades?

[AiliailiA]

The Fermi Paradox is a very good reason to believe that other technological civilizations do not exist - or at least not in our galaxy.

Human civilization has been around for let's generously say 10,000 years. For the last hundred years or so we have had radio, and in the last 70-ish years we've started actually sending radio signals into interstellar space. For the last fifty-ish years we've sorta been listening for alien life (though not that much, we haven't put a ton into it and we've spent a lot of that only searching certain frequencies and star clusters, mainly within our own galaxy).

And, two things we HAVEN'T done: build bigger and bigger radio transmitters for radio and television (they may even become obsolete with point-to-point communication, ie even the ones we have may be shut down without a few decades). Secondly, we haven't deliberately transmitted a Hello message towards any candidate stars. Active SETI I think it's called, and there's not much support for it among the governments who would fund a serious effort ("so you want millions of dollars to send strategically important information to someone you know nothing about and may not even be there? How about we just sink one of our own aircraft carriers instead?").

I have a theory about why no advanced civilization seems to be deliberately sending us radio messages. It doesn't rely on an assumption that all advanced cilizations are wary of revealing their presence (I think that's mostly true for humanity, not necessarily for other intelligent life). In fact it's very optimistic: the "radio age" ends quite suddenly when a qualitatively better means of communication is discovered. What's better than communication at the speed of light ...?

[Barboneia]

Considering the expanse of the known universe, I doubt we're alone.

[United Marxist Nations]

We could or we could not be. We probably aren't alone simply due to the vast size of the universe.

[AiliailiA]

I will keep my response to myself, but will question the relevancy of this matter.

The thread for Stuff That Really Matters is over there: <points to the Logout button>

Suppose there is another life in the universe -- at one of the 10²³ star systems in the universe, or the vast space in between. What does it matter to a creature that will be dead in 100 years? Yes, no, may be -- what is the difference to you, really? Since toddlers do not play this game, the real number is closer to 50 years. It is not even a blip on the universal scale, and one in 10²³ is far less of a blip. Perhaps your question is wrong on the universal scale.

I personally would be excited and fascinated by a genuine SETI discovery.
It could be merely a pattern (numerical approximation of a universal constant for instance) which tells us nothing other than that the signal is deliberate and the sender knows something we do too.
Or it could be detailed instructions on how to build a FTL communicator ...

[Northwest Slobovia]

Secondly, we haven't deliberately transmitted a Hello message towards any candidate stars.

*Ahem* You could argue that the messages and/or stars chosen weren't very good, but we have tried.

[Jazz Commies and Sexy Astrophysicists]

TL;DR: Alien life probably exists, but unless we somehow achieve FTL travel, it's unlikely to ever really be pertinent.

I disagree: conclusive proof of other technological civilizations is likely to permanently alter our persective, even if we can't do more than watch them from afar or study their ruins. Also note that somebody more patient than we seem to be could come to say hi in a sub-light starship. Even "just" a robot capable of making that journey would impress the hell of out us.

Yes, you're certainly correct that it would have an impact. I just find it unlikely that interactions with alien life as depicted in media (books, movies, video games, etc) will ever occur.

[Chessmistress]

Being someone who have extremely detailed nightmares about being raped by a 5 meters long absolutely weird and unheard-of acquatic alien lifeform, on average two times per week, I'm pretty sure we are not alone. And since at the end she even kill me, I'm even pretty sure they're hopelessly hostile.

You're watching too much hentai there, Chess.

Every time I try to touch such argument in real world, they told me so.
The matter is that I don't watch hentai, nor porn, not at all.