Reports: Turkish F-16s shoot down Russian Su-24

[Ganos Lao]

All leading to the future betrayal of the Kurdish people. Because there's no way NATO will put 'em over their own, guaranteed.

We have little choice. We cannot dump Turkey. And Kurdistan's economy relies on Turkey. We have to work with Turkey. One can dream the HDP could win. But the whole situation is fucked. The Kurds hate Assad too. And are friends with the Turkmen militas.

It's a catch 22, really, I already knew that.

The stage is being set for a civil war in Iraq that will have Yugoslavia-esque brutality. The only options are to back up the notion of Iraq as a single country (probable American position, even if ultimately detrimental) or pick a side and hope for the best (probable Iranian position, even if ultimately detrimental).

The Kurds are gonna be in for the fight of their lives, so them fighting ISIS is pretty good experience. Coupled with Yazidis already clamouring for Sunni Arab blood and the Shiites in Iran feeling like they need to go defend their kinsmen and women, the stage is being set also for a regional series of proxy wars as we're seeing in Syria, no doubt with their own brutality also.

And NSG will be full of "I told you we should've just nuked the whole damn lot!" posts.

[Novus America]

There's no god and bad in this case. Erdogan and the Vladster are equally despicable.

The fact that Russian planes aren't being more careful is on the Vladster.

Erdogan may be a giant dick, but he is not always wrong.

[Ganos Lao]

ISIS came out of AQ, which came out of the mujahid movement, which came out of salafist thought which came out of....

The coffers of the King of Saudi Arabia and his fellow monarchs in the Gulf.

[Saiwania]

And because the Turks are vital to American interests, the US will no doubt back them up over the Russians, who will pay them back by only aggravating the situation further by refusing to cooperate, thus leading to this conflict being prolonged and, thus, the existence of ISIS being prolonged.

The Washington establishment wants Assad gone but this doesn't matter. What is more important is for stability in the region, deposing Assad is only going to ensure Syria becomes more like Libya. Doing a simple cost/benefit analysis, the pros of keeping Assad around seems to outweigh having Turkey get upset.

Turkey should be prepared to invade Syria themselves if they want Assad gone so badly which they don't. Because doing so wouldn't put Turkey in as good of a position to prevent a Kurdish state from forming in Iraq or Syria. It is a near inevitable conclusion that Iraq is in the midst of a de facto partition that will be made official. The central Iraqi government is Shia led and thus mainly cares about governing only the Shia portion and to further their alliance with Iran.

Now Obama has prolonged the war with ISIS just from the decisions he made. He argues a false narrative that the US has to choose between invading with ground troops and doing airstrikes only. There have been plenty of opportunities to arm the Kurds and that was never done, plenty of time to bomb the oil trucks but this wasn't done until recently because Obama had decided that the truck drivers are civilians and thus had to be spared. Now Obama just gives ISIS a 45 minute warning before bombing them. Yes indeed, the US is now playing war more nicely than any country ever has before.

There is an easy solution to a prolonged war with ISIS, and this should be plainly obvious- it is a change in leadership. It can't be Hilary Clinton.

[Ganos Lao]

It is a near inevitable conclusion that Iraq is in the midst of a de facto partition that will be made official. The central Iraqi government is Shia led and thus mainly cares about governing only the Shia portion and to further their alliance with Iran.

No doubt about that.

But I'm fully expecting that there'll be some American (or otherwise Western attempt) to keep that from happening. There's no way they'll let that happen, even if it means a ton of people are going to die in very horrible ways.

The real reason no one's doing anything about the instability, Sai, is because it's just too damn profitable. That's it. No one really gives a shit and they're all in it for themselves.

There is an easy solution to a prolonged war with ISIS, you say? How about a solution to the problems that led to their rise?

No one since day one has said anything about that, and I'm getting the hint they deliberately try not to at this point.

[Platypus Reborn]

The 6837th Monkey was shot down by Turkey.

[Novus America]

It is a near inevitable conclusion that Iraq is in the midst of a de facto partition that will be made official. The central Iraqi government is Shia led and thus mainly cares about governing only the Shia portion and to further their alliance with Iran.

No doubt about that.

But I'm fully expecting that there'll be some American (or otherwise Western attempt) to keep that from happening. There's no way they'll let that happen, even if it means a ton of people are going to die in very horrible ways.

The real reason no one's doing anything about the instability, Sai, is because it's just too damn profitable. That's it. No one really gives a shit and they're all in it for themselves.

There is an easy solution to a prolonged war with ISIS, you say? How about a solution to the problems that led to their rise?

No one since day one has said anything about that, and I'm getting the hint they deliberately try not to at this point.

Well that would require a complete transformation of the politics, economics, borders and very society of the region.

[Ganos Lao]

No doubt about that.

But I'm fully expecting that there'll be some American (or otherwise Western attempt) to keep that from happening. There's no way they'll let that happen, even if it means a ton of people are going to die in very horrible ways.

The real reason no one's doing anything about the instability, Sai, is because it's just too damn profitable. That's it. No one really gives a shit and they're all in it for themselves.

There is an easy solution to a prolonged war with ISIS, you say? How about a solution to the problems that led to their rise?

No one since day one has said anything about that, and I'm getting the hint they deliberately try not to at this point.

Well that would require a complete transformation of the politics, economics, borders and very society of the region.

And that just isn't profitable. There's no money to be made, no power to be had, there's nothing that the powers that be want to be reaped from that.

[Saiwania]

There is an easy solution to a prolonged war with ISIS, you say? How about a solution to the problems that led to their rise? No one since day one has said anything about that, and I'm getting the hint they deliberately try not to at this point.

ISIS rose because the US withdrew from Iraq too early and they had a safe haven in Syria. The Syrian civil war spilling over into Iraq was the final tipping point. The Sunnis refused to fight for the Shia government of Iraq. It was sectarian politics. This might've all been avoided (in Iraq at least) if instead of keeping Iraq together as one state, it was partitioned from day one. Iraq as a unified state was viable under Saddam but now this isn't the case.

[Valaran]

We've been doing that for a long time. Pretty much since WWI.

Of course, but what I meant is that the Kurdish demands for an independent Kurdistan (Iraqi) are a given at this point, but we all know that the Turks, etc will not settle for this. And while the Turks, etc are holding them down yet again, the Kurds will appeal to the West, but led by America, they will refuse to send any aid.

Arguably, it matters less whether the Turks settle for Iraqi Kurdistan, since the latter can survive despite the former's attitude. I'd also stress that Barzani has played a very careful game there to garner Turkish (relative) neutrality, to the point that he doesn't support the PKK that much.

The places that needed our help more are the Syrian, Turkish and Iranian Kurds. We will undoubtedly betray them all, but the Iraqi Kurds are the least vulnerable in this respect.

[DBJ]

Good. We need to draw clear lines, force the only thing people like putin understand.

[United Marxist Nations]

Like?

It was soviet-era, but still.

Crossing over two restricted areas for an extended period of time while being tailed by fighter jets isn't really comparable.

[Tmutarakhan]

MacArthur's first act in Tokyo was to issue a summons to Hirohito. The published photograph with Hirohito looking deferential to MacArthur rather than the reverse shocked Japanese sentiments, as it was intended to.

Yeah but that was after the signing. Hirohito was not a signatory. But this is typical of Obama. He says many things that are just wrong.

There was nothing wrong in what Obama said. The essence of the surrender was the Emperor submitting, not whichever officer wielded a pen on the Missouri. Obama was not alluding to the Missouri ceremony (not a singularly significant moment) specifically.

[Tmutarakhan]

While that may be true for terrorism as a concept, it's not true for ISIS. Unlike AQ, they do have state-like qualities, with their own territory, cities, military bases, a standing army and a capital. This makes it easier for the rest of the world to grab them by the throat and crush them.
Too bad the various rivalries are preventing that from happening though.

ISIS came out of AQ, which came out of the mujahid movement, which came out of salafist thought which came out of....

We've been dancing this tango for a long time globally, and every time someone thinks they can just militarily stamp it out, they've been proven to be quite wrong.

al-Qaeda was the deadly enemy of the mujahid movement: bin-Laden came to Afghanistan with his money and foreign recruits specifically because he thought it a mortal sin for the Afghans to take any help from the infidels, and his men spent less time fighting the Soviets (their one major battle against the Russians was an embarrassing fiasco) than organization assassinations of mujahid leaders.
ISIS in turn arose from people who despised al-Qaeda for its inept leadership. The mujahideen, al-Qaeda, and ISIS are alike in that they are all brown people, and as everyone knows all brown people look alike; and they're all Muslims, and as everyone knows Islam is a monolithic hive mind; but they still have some distinctions.

[Imperializt Russia]

Channel 4 news had footage of the helicopter "shot down". It had landed, and was struck by a BGM-71 TOW of some description, set up by rebels while it was on the ground. Footage suggested the helicopter was destroyed.

[Chestaan]

Strange that Turkey doesn't give a shit about the borders of other countries...

[Geilinor]

It was soviet-era, but still.

Crossing over two restricted areas for an extended period of time while being tailed by fighter jets isn't really comparable.

They initially denied it and then accused the plane of being on a spy mission.

[Tmutarakhan]

According to a Russian-language news-site that has not led me badly wrong before, a contractor attempting to rescue the living pilot was shot and killed by rebels on the ground.

The Turkmen are not turning the pilot over without a fight. Nor should they. Russia is an enemy of their people. It is fight or die for them. Shooting the pilot in the air was wrong.

But the Turkmen do not just have to roll over and die.

Holding the pilot hostage will prove a very bad move for them, I expect.

[Geilinor]

Strange that Turkey doesn't give a shit about the borders of other countries...

In all cases, the Turkish jets were chased off by Greek aircraft.

The planes were chased out without the need for force.

[Chestaan]

Strange that Turkey doesn't give a shit about the borders of other countries...

In all cases, the Turkish jets were chased off by Greek aircraft.

The planes were chased out without the need for force.

Exactly. The point I'm making is that Turkey is claiming that it has the right to shoot anything that comes across it's border yet it is guilty of the exact same thing that Russia did.

[Sahuria]

Channel 4 news had footage of the helicopter "shot down". It had landed, and was struck by a BGM-71 TOW of some description, set up by rebels while it was on the ground. Footage suggested the helicopter was destroyed.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGlJFoIBKQw (I can't speak Russian though, so I'm trusting someone's translation in Reddit) the helicopter got shot at and was forced to land. One Russian Marine was killed during this, but the rest of the crew were evacuated by the 2nd helicopter. The TOW shot happened later, and simply blew up the abandoned helicopter.

[The Emerald Dawn]

ISIS came out of AQ, which came out of the mujahid movement, which came out of salafist thought which came out of....

We've been dancing this tango for a long time globally, and every time someone thinks they can just militarily stamp it out, they've been proven to be quite wrong.

al-Qaeda was the deadly enemy of the mujahid movement: bin-Laden came to Afghanistan with his money and foreign recruits specifically because he thought it a mortal sin for the Afghans to take any help from the infidels, and his men spent less time fighting the Soviets (their one major battle against the Russians was an embarrassing fiasco) than organization assassinations of mujahid leaders.
ISIS in turn arose from people who despised al-Qaeda for its inept leadership. The mujahideen, al-Qaeda, and ISIS are alike in that they are all brown people, and as everyone knows all brown people look alike; and they're all Muslims, and as everyone knows Islam is a monolithic hive mind; but they still have some distinctions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qaeda#name

As fun as it is to sit on our high-horse, sometimes we need to be reminded that we're not always right.

[Demostopia]

Turks just singed there own death warrens

[Baltenstein]

The planes were chased out without the need for force.

Exactly. The point I'm making is that Turkey is claiming that it has the right to shoot anything that comes across it's border yet it is guilty of the exact same thing that Russia did.

And Russia has draconian laws for people advocating separatism inside its borders, yet happily recognizes separatist entities left and right outside its borders.

As I said before, both the Turkish and the Russian governments are hypocritical dicks. It's a "jerk vs jerk" scenario.

[Chestaan]

Exactly. The point I'm making is that Turkey is claiming that it has the right to shoot anything that comes across it's border yet it is guilty of the exact same thing that Russia did.

And Russia has draconian laws for people advocating separatism inside its borders, yet happily recognizes separatist entities left and right outside its borders.

As I said before, both the Turkish and the Russian governments are hypocritical dicks. It's a "jerk vs jerk" scenario.

Indeed. It just irritates me that people here think that it's perfectly fine for Turkey to shoot down this plane. Especially since they have recently flew their planes across the Greek border