Reports: Turkish F-16s shoot down Russian Su-24

[Vistulange]

Oh, great.

So, basically, more people stereotyping us for no discernible reason and even more people thinking the Turks are a hivemind who all support Erdoğan and his cronies.

Discussion? What's that? Oh, no, let's bash Turkey and Turkish people because of their nutjob president! It's much more prudent, constructive and productive!

Actually, since I've heard a deluge of Russian and Western and opinions, what is the general consensus in Turkey right now, if there is one? And your personal view?

The general consensus among 50.5% of the population who did not vote for the AKP is: "FUCK, FUCK, FUCK". Basically, we're kind of praying to whatever we believe in that Erdoğan and his cronies literally die or something before they end up getting all of us killed or under occupation. I'm keeping my Canadian passport handy - I love my motherland, but I'm not going to die for a war Erdoğan starts. I refuse to die for the AKP or Erdoğan, basically.

Truth be told, the opposition is more concerned with internal affairs right now, such as Ali Babacan - the sole soul in the AKP cadres who had a brain - being removed from the cabinet post of Economy Minister; or Berat Albayrak - Erdoğan's son-in-law - being the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources.

The AKP suck-ups? They're just caught up in their delusion that we're a world leader and that Germany is afraid of our economic strength and - you know what, fuck it. They're just delusional and hopelessly lost.

[Tierra Prime]

And I thought World War III would come out of something in the Balkans.

[Novus America]

The Russian Defense Ministry has already announced that the Russian aircraft did not cross Turkish airspace.
And even if they overlap, to shoot down the aircraft without warning - it is a crime on the part of the Turks.
They claim that 10 times warned our plane on the radio, but it is certainly false. Our pilots are not fools to ignore such warnings.

Think about it: if the intersection of Turkish airspace - a matter of few seconds, whether it was necessary to shoot down them? No, this is clearly malice.

Putin had already accused Turkey by State-accomplicer for terrorists.

To be honest, I don't think you have to warn foreign combat aircraft that enters your airspace. It's just more polite to do so.
And Russia has violated Turkish airspace several times in the past few months, each time followed by Turkish protests.

Exactly. Russia was not going to stop just because Turkey asked nicely. Turkey had to use force.

[Planita]

Actually, since I've heard a deluge of Russian and Western and opinions, what is the general consensus in Turkey right now, if there is one? And your personal view?

The general consensus among 50.5% of the population who did not vote for the AKP is: "FUCK, FUCK, FUCK". Basically, we're kind of praying to whatever we believe in that Erdoğan and his cronies literally die or something before they end up getting all of us killed or under occupation. I'm keeping my Canadian passport handy - I love my motherland, but I'm not going to die for a war Erdoğan starts. I refuse to die for the AKP or Erdoğan, basically.

Truth be told, the opposition is more concerned with internal affairs right now, such as Ali Babacan - the sole soul in the AKP cadres who had a brain - being removed from the cabinet post of Economy Minister; or Berat Albayrak - Erdoğan's son-in-law - being the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources.

The AKP suck-ups? They're just caught up in their delusion that we're a world leader and that Germany is afraid of our economic strength and - you know what, fuck it. They're just delusional and hopelessly lost.

Which is why I wanted the HDP and CHP to win in the snap election.

[Ganos Lao]

I'm thinking that Obama doesn't realise that half of our allies in the fight against Daesh hates the other half.

Did you think Western politicians were aware of the situation? Most of them are just winging it and already have the water ready by which to wash their hands of it all once they get more egg on their face.

[Valaran]

Putin doesn't need the pipeline either really; he can troll Ukraine much more simply, by squeezing the oil that flows into that nation from Russia (and he has done so in the past).

In essence, Russia and Turkey are both expanding their influence across quite a broad swathe, and that could easily result in a power struggle. Arguably, it already has in Syria, hence these sorts of spats.

Wouldn't these pipelines be necessary for Russia if the Ukraine conflict turns sour and they lose their pipelines to Europe?

That's very unlikely to happen in the first place, since it heavily impacts both Russia and Europe - neither want that. And the Ukraine conflict would have get horrendous - right now it is in stasis, but not actively deteriorating, and I don't think anyone plans for it to get worse on either side. So, something pretty drastic would have to shift, and then overpower the efforts of both sides to resolve it. Its fair to say that this is improbably right now.

Secondly, the pipeline would at least in part be supplying European countries (Turkey is largely a waypoint), so should the above occur, it wouldn't help much anyway.

[Napkiraly]

And I thought World War III would come out of something in the Balkans.

WWIII is not going to start over this.

[Tierra Prime]

And I thought World War III would come out of something in the Balkans.

WWIII is not going to start over this.

Do you understand sarcasm?

[Belhorizon]

Wouldn't these pipelines be necessary for Russia if the Ukraine conflict turns sour and they lose their pipelines to Europe?

That's very unlikely to happen in the first place, since it heavily impacts both Russia and Europe - neither want that. And the Ukraine conflict would have get horrendous - right now it is in stasis, but not actively deteriorating, and I don't think anyone plans for it to get worse on either side. So, something pretty drastic would have to shift, and then overpower the efforts of both sides to resolve it. Its fair to say that this is improbably right now.

Secondly, the pipeline would at least in part be supplying European countries (Turkey is largely a waypoint), so should the above occur, it wouldn't help much anyway.

There does exist the gas pipeline that was to pass through Syria to Europe to diversify European gas sources.
But Assad refused under Putin's pressure.

Then the revolution erupted. Surprise surprise.

So yes, Europe would bleed without Russian gas, that is; unless it found another gas source that is equally cheap.

[Baltenstein]

The AKP suck-ups? They're just caught up in their delusion that we're a world leader and that Germany is afraid of our economic strength and - you know what, fuck it. They're just delusional and hopelessly lost.

The funny (well, not so funny) thing is: You hear this "Germany is causing the troubles in Turkey because they fear Turkey's economic rise" mumbo jumbo a lot among the German-Turkish community. The majority of which are AKP supporters, regretably.

[United Marxist Nations]

Well, if my impressions of the map are correct, then it would likely mean that, even if the plane was travelling at maximum speed, the missile was fired after it had already left Turkish airspace, and, if the plane was at a more regular cruising speed, as much as 20+ seconds after it had left.

I'm reasonably certain it was fired before, or that not everyone would have realised whether it had recrossed the border or not (hardly a big glowing line in the sky after all).

If it was a mid-range missile (AIM-120), then it is more-or-less impossible. Travelling at 1.3 km per second, such a missile would have caught the plane probably within about 15-20 seconds, sooner if my estimate of the distance is correct.

[Napkiraly]

WWIII is not going to start over this.

Do you understand sarcasm?

You should work on conveying your sarcasm better then.

[Valaran]

The general consensus among 50.5% of the population who did not vote for the AKP is: "FUCK, FUCK, FUCK". Basically, we're kind of praying to whatever we believe in that Erdoğan and his cronies literally die or something before they end up getting all of us killed or under occupation. I'm keeping my Canadian passport handy - I love my motherland, but I'm not going to die for a war Erdoğan starts. I refuse to die for the AKP or Erdoğan, basically.

Truth be told, the opposition is more concerned with internal affairs right now, such as Ali Babacan - the sole soul in the AKP cadres who had a brain - being removed from the cabinet post of Economy Minister; or Berat Albayrak - Erdoğan's son-in-law - being the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources.

The AKP suck-ups? They're just caught up in their delusion that we're a world leader and that Germany is afraid of our economic strength and - you know what, fuck it. They're just delusional and hopelessly lost.

Thanks for the response c:

To be clear, I knew you weren't fans of AK (nor am I), but... given the first paragraph, do you actually consider such a war likely (after all, a NATO nation vs Russia is basically an improbable scenario)? And if not, what would you consider to be the likely response both by Turkey, and by Russia?

When you say the opposition, is the that CHP, or all the three main non-AK groups?

Yeah :/

[Novus America]

I'm thinking that Obama doesn't realise that half of our allies in the fight against Daesh hates the other half.

Russia is not our ally. Russia is fighting both our enemy ISIS and our friends. And Russia's goal is to prop up Assad, we want him gone.

[Baltenstein]

I'm thinking that Obama doesn't realise that half of our allies in the fight against Daesh hates the other half.

Russia is not our ally. Russia is fighting both our enemy ISIS and our friends. And Russia's goal is to prop up Assad, we want him gone.

Sadly, this disagreement among the big players is the key reason why the world hasn't wiped out ISIS already.

[Valaran]

As I understood it the last instance of that was in 2006, where the jets accidentally collided (as opposed to being shot down), and that both nations agreed to rein that stuff in afterwards.

While that was indeed the most recent incident, shotdowns have also happened in the Nineties.

And the Turkish airforce hasn't really stopped violating Greek airspace, since Turkey continues to not recognize Greece's territorial claims.

Sorry, missed this for a sec.

Ah, fair points. But even so, the... instability present in such manoeuvres has declined markedly since the 90s.

Agreed on the second, but it has become more of a show-dance than an actively dangerous situation. Certainly no one expects relations to suddenly deteriorate further between Ankara-Athens because of it, and they probably won't start shooting each other.

[The Wolven League]

And I thought World War III would come out of something in the Balkans.

WWIII is not going to start over this.

It'll start over something really dumb, like "you just nuked my capital city for no reason".

[United Marxist Nations]

WWIII is not going to start over this.

It'll start over something really dumb, like "you just nuked my capital city for no reason".

FUCKING GANDHI!!!!!

[Novus America]

I'm reasonably certain it was fired before, or that not everyone would have realised whether it had recrossed the border or not (hardly a big glowing line in the sky after all).

If it was a mid-range missile (AIM-120), then it is more-or-less impossible. Travelling at 1.3 km per second, such a missile would have caught the plane probably within about 15-20 seconds, sooner if my estimate of the distance is correct.

Not necessarily. Where was the shooting plane? AIM-120 can shoot up to 97 NM.

[Ganos Lao]

Russia is not our ally. Russia is fighting both our enemy ISIS and our friends. And Russia's goal is to prop up Assad, we want him gone.

Sadly, this disagreement among the big players is the key reason why the world hasn't wiped out ISIS already.

And why the world won't have any real plan for rebuilding once they do just that.

[Crusader occupied mecca]

The Russian Defense Ministry has already announced that the Russian aircraft did not cross Turkish airspace.

Think about it: if the intersection of Turkish airspace - a matter of few seconds

So, either they did cross Turkish airspace, or they didn't.

The Russian Defense Ministry has already announced that the Russian aircraft did not cross Turkish airspace.
Our pilots are not fools to ignore such warnings.

Presupposes best Russian intentions and veracity.

And even if they overlap, to shoot down the aircraft without warning - it is a crime on the part of the Turks.
They claim that 10 times warned our plane on the radio, but it is certainly false.
No, this is clearly malice.

Presupposes worst Turkish intentions and veracity.


Fairly strong case of emotional bias here.

Presupposes Turks have airspace when their whole nation is where it is through unprovoked jihadi aggression and land theft. Roflmao.

[The Wolven League]

I'm assuming a "Thanksgiving must be here early, because Turkey is about to be roasted" joke has already been made?

[Baltenstein]

While that was indeed the most recent incident, shotdowns have also happened in the Nineties.

And the Turkish airforce hasn't really stopped violating Greek airspace, since Turkey continues to not recognize Greece's territorial claims.

Sorry, missed this for a sec.

Ah, fair points. But even so, the... instability present in such manoeuvres has declined markedly since the 90s.

Agreed on the second, but it has become more of a show-dance than an actively dangerous situation. Certainly no one expects relations to suddenly deteriorate further between Ankara-Athens because of it, and they probably won't start shooting each other.

You're probably right, but seeing how both the Greek and the Turkish governments are mostly made up by irresponsible clowns with delusions of grandeur, I wouldn't be completely optimistic.

[The Emerald Dawn]

It'll start over something really dumb, like "you just nuked my capital city for no reason".

FUCKING GANDHI!!!!!

True story, I restart any game of Civ that has Gandhi on the map.

[Kraylandia]

I'm assuming a "Thanksgiving must be here early, because Turkey is about to be roasted" joke has already been made?

Yeah, you're a bit late.