Reports: Turkish F-16s shoot down Russian Su-24

[Valaran]

Actually, I'm not sure that is true. The YPG are simply the armed forces of the Syrian Kurds, and their links to the PKK are disputed. Erdogan likes to portray them as PKK, so he can kill them.

Really? I had been fairly certain they were.

Being blunt, that's primarily Erdogan's propaganda. The actual nature of links is hard to tell, and both fight IS together, but they are not the same. To use just one of many articles, you can glean the sheer complexity of the nature of their relations. The US makes the distinction between the YPG and the PKK; Erdogan does not and so he bombs both.

The Kurdish situation is complex, but effectively while authorities (and by this I mean Mahmoud Barzani) in Iraqi Kurdistan have deliberately distanced themselves from the PKK, those in Rojava have not, or at least not to the extent that Erdogan wants. Barzani treads a cautious line; the YPG don't, in part since they need all the help they can get against IS. Hence Erdogan has little qualms about treating them as the same.

Erdogan also does not want the entire Southern border to become Kurdish, and given that they are basically the only ones having significant military success against IS, this would have been likely... unless they are weakened. Hence the ideas of buffer zones (ie, Turkish dominated regions, not Kurdish), not allowing supplies to help the YPG and so forth. Its his 'Kurdish Strategy'.

Also, how neat is it to divide the Kurds? If you can split the the Iraqi Kurds from the PKK and the YPG, they can't support each other, and they certainly can't go and support the Kurds in Turkey, or beat back IS, or form a single state. People who don't help the PKK lose legitimacy in the eyes of the Kurds, while those that do you can target. Meanwhile the West doesn't know who to support, and so loses interest. Divide and rule.

Not that even if they were I'd want Erdogan bombing them.

Agreed.

[Shofercia]

It was on the table for quite a while, but was tabled due to Turkish lobbying. Now that the Turkish lobby in Russia has zero power...

https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/World ... e-ria.ashx

MOSCOW: Russian lawmaker Sergei Mironov said Wednesday his party had submitted a bill to parliament on holding to account anyone who denies that the 1915 killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turkish forces was a genocide.

"We have just submitted a bill on responsibility for failure to acknowledge the fact of a genocide of Armenians by Turkey in 1915," Mironov, the leader of the opposition Just Russia party, said on his Twitter account, a day after the Turkish air force shot down a Russian jet.

The Republican Elite need to understand that Bush cannot win the general election.

The Republican elite thinks that Donald Trump can't win a general election either, but they are still under the impression that Jeb Bush would have the best chance out of all of the candidates, the most moderate and liberal of the field that can theoretically win in spite of the base, after all- the US in general is becoming more liberal. Jeb Bush is going to try to win with as little support from the Republican base as he can possibly manage.

It's not all about that base though. Bush is unelectable because of his speech about Iraq, which is worse than Romney's 47% comment. "Mr. Bush, with the benefit of hindsight, would you still invade Iraq like your brother did?" "Yes!"

Next candidate. I think Kasich has the best chance.

Having a stable supply of energy is equivalent to incompetence?

Being a pushover was pretty shameful given his position.

At least he's found a job that allows him to be just that now.

Getting a stable supply of energy = being a pushover?

Being a pushover was pretty shameful given his position.

At least he's found a job that allows him to be just that now.

In all fairness he was more corrupt than a pushover.

In all fairness, Nordstream, which is the specific policy we're talking about, benefits Germany as well as Russia. You're welcome to critique Gephard for some things, but ensuring that his country is supplied with energy at market prices, well, that just doesn't seem like a bad thing to me. If someone paid me a bribe to do what needed to be done and what I was going to do anyways, I might as well take the bribe.

But the Crimea is full of Russians. Historically, it has been Russian since it was annexed to Imperial Russia. When Soviet premier Khrushchev, a Ukrainian, ceded Crimea from Soviet Russia to Soviet Ukraine he did it without even holding a referendum. Khrushchev must have known that it did not really matter if Crimea was part of Soviet Ukraine or Soviet Russia since in the end it would still be under the Soviet flag. But this all changed when Ukraine decided to separate. No longer would the Russians have any control over Crimea.

For what its worth, at least the Russians had a referendum.

Khruschev was not an Ukrainian. This is a myth.

Though it is true he loved more Ukraine than Russia.

Irrespective of that, he blatantly violated Soviet Law with the transfer of Crimea, but then again, in the USSR, some were sadly above the law, and he was one of those scumbags.

[Exelia]

Being blunt, that's primarily Erdogan's propaganda. The actual nature of links is hard to tell, and both fight IS together, but they are not the same. To use just one of many articles, you can glean the sheer complexity of the nature of their relations. The US makes the distinction between the YPG and the PKK; Erdogan does not and so he bombs both.

The Kurdish situation is complex, but effectively while authorities (and by this I mean Mahmoud Barzani) in Iraqi Kurdistan have deliberately distanced themselves from the PKK, those in Rojava have not, or at least not to the extent that Erdogan wants. Barzani treads a cautious line; the YPG don't, in part since they need all the help they can get against IS. Hence Erdogan has little qualms about treating them as the same.

Erdogan also does not want the entire Southern border to become Kurdish, and given that they are basically the only ones having significant military success against IS, this would have been likely... unless they are weakened. Hence the ideas of buffer zones (ie, Turkish dominated regions, not Kurdish), not allowing supplies to help the YPG and so forth. Its his 'Kurdish Strategy'.

Also, how neat is it to divide the Kurds? If you can split the the Iraqi Kurds from the PKK and the YPG, they can't support each other, and they certainly can't go and support the Kurds in Turkey, or beat back IS, or form a single state. People who don't help the PKK lose legitimacy in the eyes of the Kurds, while those that do you can target. Meanwhile the West doesn't know who to support, and so loses interest. Divide and rule.

Interesting. Thanks for the info.

[Valaran]

Interesting. Thanks for the info.

No worries!

Admittedly, its such a complex mess that I have difficulty comprehending it; most books worth their salt on the Kurds have 1-2 pages of acronyms and there at least 5 notable Barzanis (plus a whole tribe).

[Cartagine]

Still don't buy it, i rather hear it from an independent & neutral source.

You probably aren't going to get that. If you don't buy Turkish and NATO sources because of their bias then you can't trust Russian sources for the same reason. The Russian navigator is rather unlikely to admit that he and the pilot ignored warnings from Turkey that resulted in them getting shot down.

At least Turkey has provided audio tapes and images from radar equipment.

Oh don't get me wrong, i don't trust the Russians either, that's why i'd like to see a neutral source. Both Russia as Turkey/US NATO are well known to make stuff up if it suits their needs.

[Valaran]

You probably aren't going to get that. If you don't buy Turkish and NATO sources because of their bias then you can't trust Russian sources for the same reason. The Russian navigator is rather unlikely to admit that he and the pilot ignored warnings from Turkey that resulted in them getting shot down.

At least Turkey has provided audio tapes and images from radar equipment.

Oh don't get me wrong, i don't trust the Russians either, that's why i'd like to see a neutral source. Both Russia as Turkey/US NATO are well known to make stuff up if it suits their needs.

tbh, its unlikely that we will be able to, since the only evidence to be had is in the hands of Turkish databanks (maybe some American stuff) and Russian sources, all others will use them as a point of reference. A leak is unlikely.

At best, one can infer other things from the information presented, or attempt to determine falsities, but that's largely it.

I suggest just using the information to hand, and treating it with the appropriate caution.

[Novus America]

It was on the table for quite a while, but was tabled due to Turkish lobbying. Now that the Turkish lobby in Russia has zero power...

https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/World ... e-ria.ashx

MOSCOW: Russian lawmaker Sergei Mironov said Wednesday his party had submitted a bill to parliament on holding to account anyone who denies that the 1915 killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turkish forces was a genocide.

"We have just submitted a bill on responsibility for failure to acknowledge the fact of a genocide of Armenians by Turkey in 1915," Mironov, the leader of the opposition Just Russia party, said on his Twitter account, a day after the Turkish air force shot down a Russian jet.

The Republican elite thinks that Donald Trump can't win a general election either, but they are still under the impression that Jeb Bush would have the best chance out of all of the candidates, the most moderate and liberal of the field that can theoretically win in spite of the base, after all- the US in general is becoming more liberal. Jeb Bush is going to try to win with as little support from the Republican base as he can possibly manage.

It's not all about that base though. Bush is unelectable because of his speech about Iraq, which is worse than Romney's 47% comment. "Mr. Bush, with the benefit of hindsight, would you still invade Iraq like your brother did?" "Yes!"

Next candidate. I think Kasich has the best chance.

Being a pushover was pretty shameful given his position.

At least he's found a job that allows him to be just that now.

Getting a stable supply of energy = being a pushover?

In all fairness he was more corrupt than a pushover.

In all fairness, Nordstream, which is the specific policy we're talking about, benefits Germany as well as Russia. You're welcome to critique Gephard for some things, but ensuring that his country is supplied with energy at market prices, well, that just doesn't seem like a bad thing to me. If someone paid me a bribe to do what needed to be done and what I was going to do anyways, I might as well take the bribe.

Khruschev was not an Ukrainian. This is a myth.

Though it is true he loved more Ukraine than Russia.

Irrespective of that, he blatantly violated Soviet Law with the transfer of Crimea, but then again, in the USSR, some were sadly above the law, and he was one of those scumbags.

Soviet Law was kind of an oxymoron. I mean the Soviet Constitution actually protected speech and expression on paper, but in practice the elite rarely obeyed the law.

And yes, transferring Crimea to Ukraine was stupid. There would not have been the whole Crimea mess (Crimea was a problem since Ukrainian independence) had Crimea stayed Russian. Of course without Crimea the pro Russian voter base is devastated making the electorate more pro Western as well.

Actually the transfer of Crimea is the best option in the long term. Nobody seriously thinks it will be returned either. My problem was not Crimea being Russian if they wish to be so, it was the manner (subterfuge, lack of respect for minorities, unnecessarily rigging an election that could have easily been won fairly, armed invasion). The majority of Crimeans wanted it it does appear. And I support self determination. The problem is it sets a dangerous precedent. It needed to be done more transparently and without force.

Even we can agree it seems.

The Donbass thing was a bridge too far. Russia could have gotten away with Crimea. The Donbass is the cause of the sanctions. See Russia needs to learn when to stop. Which gets back on topic. Russia pushed Turkey way to far, so Turkey had to react. Bombing Turkmen was stupid anyway as they are more interested in autonomy and have no interest in taking over all of Syria.
Had Russia stuck to bombing Al Nusra and ISIS this never would have happened. Again do not overstep.

[The United Colonies of Earth]

It was on the table for quite a while, but was tabled due to Turkish lobbying. Now that the Turkish lobby in Russia has zero power...

https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/World ... e-ria.ashx






It's not all about that base though. Bush is unelectable because of his speech about Iraq, which is worse than Romney's 47% comment. "Mr. Bush, with the benefit of hindsight, would you still invade Iraq like your brother did?" "Yes!"

Next candidate. I think Kasich has the best chance.




Getting a stable supply of energy = being a pushover?




In all fairness, Nordstream, which is the specific policy we're talking about, benefits Germany as well as Russia. You're welcome to critique Gephard for some things, but ensuring that his country is supplied with energy at market prices, well, that just doesn't seem like a bad thing to me. If someone paid me a bribe to do what needed to be done and what I was going to do anyways, I might as well take the bribe.




Irrespective of that, he blatantly violated Soviet Law with the transfer of Crimea, but then again, in the USSR, some were sadly above the law, and he was one of those scumbags.

Soviet Law was kind of an oxymoron. I mean the Soviet Constitution actually protected speech and expression on paper, but in practice the elite rarely obeyed the law.

And yes, transferring Crimea to Ukraine was stupid. There would not have been the whole Crimea mess (Crimea was a problem since Ukrainian independence) had Crimea stayed Russian. Of course without Crimea the pro Russian voter base is devastated making the electorate more pro Western as well.

Actually the transfer of Crimea is the best option in the long term. Nobody seriously thinks it will be returned either. My problem was not Crimea being Russian if they wish to be so, it was the manner (subterfuge, lack of respect for minorities, unnecessarily rigging an election that could have easily been won fairly, armed invasion). The majority of Crimeans wanted it it does appear. And I support self determination. The problem is it sets a dangerous precedent. It needed to be done more transparently and without force.

The Donbass thing was a bridge too far. Russia could have gotten away with Crimea. The Donbass is the cause of the sanctions. See Russia needs to learn when to stop. Which gets back on topic. Russia pushed Turkey way to far, so Turkey had to react. Bombing Turkenen was stupid anyway as they are more interested in autonomy and have no interest in taking over all of Syria.

Yeah, I read it was a cycle of reciprocation over the Turkmen villages being attacked. Russia should have tried to get a deal cut with the Turkmen before deciding "BOMB EM", but they didn't and now Turkey is up in arms too and decides the right thing to do is shoot down a plane that was over their territory for, what, less than 20 seconds? Fuckin' A right there.
Anything worse to come of this than a bill recognizing the Armenian genocide in the Federal Assembly? What will Turkey do, try and convince NATO they were completely in the right over this?

[Wdkckms]

Irrespective of that, he blatantly violated Soviet Law with the transfer of Crimea, but then again, in the USSR, some were sadly above the law, and he was one of those scumbags.

Which Soviet law did he violated?

Even if this is true, it is because the Soviet Union never bothered to held on laws. This is evident in modern day Russia and even from some Russians.
For instance the Soviet constitution of 1936 guaranteed the freedom of speech and assembly, but in praxis it was never the case. Also, the post of the First secretary was at begin in Lenins time in fact a powerless position. Than Stalin become and started to use all power thus making the post a de facto leader of the USSR, besides the prime minister.

[Valaran]

Anything worse to come of this than a bill recognizing the Armenian genocide in the Federal Assembly?

A few things so far - a Russian airdefence warship moved into the region (the fear is there might be retaliation in kind), a Lavrov's visit to Turkey cancelled, and some negative impacts for the Turkish tourist industry (which was already hit by the instability). The Turkmen are likely to be targeted with increasing frequency; a report posted earlier showed several trucks blown up by Russian jets just after they left Turkey (likely arms/supplies for some rebel groups). All in all, I'd say nothing too bad or escalatory.

But the real fear is what may happen.

What will Turkey do, try and convince NATO they were completely in the right over this?

That probably won't work - NATO's been rather cautious in its response (as has Turkey, interestingly). It doesn't want to get drawn into this, and certainly doesn't want to get distracted from fighting IS.

[The United Colonies of Earth]

Anything worse to come of this than a bill recognizing the Armenian genocide in the Federal Assembly?

A few things so far - a Russian airdefence warship moved into the region (the fear is there might be retaliation in kind), a Lavrov's visit to Turkey cancelled, and some negative impacts for the Turkish tourist industry (which was already hit by the instability). The Turkmen are likely to be targeted with increasing frequency; a report posted earlier showed several trucks blown up by Russian jets just after they left Turkey (likely arms/supplies for some rebel groups). All in all, I'd say nothing too bad or escalatory.

But the real fear is what may happen.

What will Turkey do, try and convince NATO they were completely in the right over this?

That probably won't work - NATO's been rather cautious in its response (as has Turkey, interestingly). It doesn't want to get drawn into this, and certainly doesn't want to get distracted from fighting IS.

But Russia wouldn't try attacking Turkey directly in kind, would they? They wouldn't try and pull the same shit the Turks just did...
right?
What are the possibilities?

[Kinckobanina and Wherpvelna]

Irrespective of that, he blatantly violated Soviet Law with the transfer of Crimea, but then again, in the USSR, some were sadly above the law, and he was one of those scumbags.

Yet you continue to worship an "ex member" of the USSR's corrupt law ignoring security agency.

[Uxupox]

A few things so far - a Russian airdefence warship moved into the region (the fear is there might be retaliation in kind), a Lavrov's visit to Turkey cancelled, and some negative impacts for the Turkish tourist industry (which was already hit by the instability). The Turkmen are likely to be targeted with increasing frequency; a report posted earlier showed several trucks blown up by Russian jets just after they left Turkey (likely arms/supplies for some rebel groups). All in all, I'd say nothing too bad or escalatory.

But the real fear is what may happen.



That probably won't work - NATO's been rather cautious in its response (as has Turkey, interestingly). It doesn't want to get drawn into this, and certainly doesn't want to get distracted from fighting IS.

But Russia wouldn't try attacking Turkey directly in kind, would they? They wouldn't try and pull the same shit the Turks just did...
right?
What are the possibilities?

The Russians have no justification of firing at the Turkish unless somehow a Turkish plane flies into Russian airspace unlikely as they may be.

[Novus America]

A few things so far - a Russian airdefence warship moved into the region (the fear is there might be retaliation in kind), a Lavrov's visit to Turkey cancelled, and some negative impacts for the Turkish tourist industry (which was already hit by the instability). The Turkmen are likely to be targeted with increasing frequency; a report posted earlier showed several trucks blown up by Russian jets just after they left Turkey (likely arms/supplies for some rebel groups). All in all, I'd say nothing too bad or escalatory.

But the real fear is what may happen.



That probably won't work - NATO's been rather cautious in its response (as has Turkey, interestingly). It doesn't want to get drawn into this, and certainly doesn't want to get distracted from fighting IS.

But Russia wouldn't try attacking Turkey directly in kind, would they? They wouldn't try and pull the same shit the Turks just did...
right?
What are the possibilities?

Not much really. Russian nationalists are all fired up, but Putin is actually much more reasonable than the Russian people.

Russia's economy and international relations are already on thin ice. And Turkey is very important to Russia. They cannot make them too angry.

Putin just has to do enough to save face. And hopefully the Russians are less reckless in the future. Especially around the Turks who are clearly not fucking around and not as cautious (some might say cowardly) as say the EU, Nordics and current US government.

Clearly Russia needs to not push the Turks much farther. Turkey can hurt Russia economically, they have countermeasures and can make life very difficult for Russia. And push Turkey too far and they might outright invade Syria.

[Valaran]

But Russia wouldn't try attacking Turkey directly in kind, would they? They wouldn't try and pull the same shit the Turks just did...
right?
What are the possibilities?

It is conceivable that they may find a Turkish fighter had violated Syrian airspace, and shoot it down. Perhaps not actively seeking to do so, but they may enact a simila'r 'short fuse' policy as Turkey did to airpsace violations in its airspace.

As a full range of options, well there are a lot, at least for Russia - Turkey doesn't seem to want to change its policies here (it may tone them down). Probably too many for me to count right now, so I'll list some of the options Putin has:

-Fume and leave it at the previous reactions
-Increase Strikes on Turkish backed rebels and Turkmen (likely)
-Increase support to Assad (likely)
-Offer material assistance to Kurdish groups in Syria (this may include the PKK, who do operate there and have ties with the YPG; personally I doubt it)
-Further disrupt economic links (possible on a small level)
-Cancel Turkstream (this had previously stalled; doubtful though)
-Interfere more diplomatically, especially in the Caucasus, Middle East (very possible)
-Take some drastic action/threats on Turkey's energy supplies (Turkey is the second largest market for Russian energy; unlikely though, for several reasons)
-Stir up further Kurdish trouble, possibly in Turkey itself (difficult to see how this would be done)
-Establish a proper set of procedures with NATO to ensure such things won't happen again (here's to hoping that this will happen)
-The above reaction concerning AA

I stress that a lot of these may simply be symbolic actions, and that I don't believe most of the above will be taken, or threatened (most are far too drastic). Unfortunately I don't have the motivation to explain why for each in detail, but as a general rule, there is simply fairly little pressure to directly escalate this beyond the spat level it is. This is not necessarily a major incident in itself, though it has some disturbing potential, and is an indicator for wider problems.

What Russia is likely to do is make some symbolic gestures (bombing Turkmen would be the one to look for; Lavrov's visit cancelled & travel warnings are previous examples), mixed in with some more support for Assad, and then several diplomatic measures. The latter are more interesting, as both Russia and Turkey compete for influence in several areas, and this might be a spur for increased levels of such.

My tendency is to not overplay this (my list is misleading in that regard). I don't think Russia will crack down too much harder than it has.

[Valaran]

Incidentally, Turkey just released an audio recording of the warnings that were supposedly given to the Su-24.

[Baltenstein]

Russia has shot down both civilian and military aircraft that was violating its or its allies' (Cuba) air space in the past. They also continue to be in denial about a civilian airliner being very likely shot down by Russian-supported rebels. They're really not in the position to throw temper tantrums over the matter.

Of course, Turkey isn't in the position to bitch about its air space getting violated either, what with them doing the same thing over and over again.

[Emirate of Akbarstan]

Russian invasion of Turkey confirmed.

Seconded.

[Shofercia]

Soviet Law was kind of an oxymoron. I mean the Soviet Constitution actually protected speech and expression on paper, but in practice the elite rarely obeyed the law.

And yes, transferring Crimea to Ukraine was stupid. There would not have been the whole Crimea mess (Crimea was a problem since Ukrainian independence) had Crimea stayed Russian. Of course without Crimea the pro Russian voter base is devastated making the electorate more pro Western as well.

Actually the transfer of Crimea is the best option in the long term. Nobody seriously thinks it will be returned either. My problem was not Crimea being Russian if they wish to be so, it was the manner (subterfuge, lack of respect for minorities, unnecessarily rigging an election that could have easily been won fairly, armed invasion). The majority of Crimeans wanted it it does appear. And I support self determination. The problem is it sets a dangerous precedent. It needed to be done more transparently and without force.

Even we can agree it seems.

The Donbass thing was a bridge too far. Russia could have gotten away with Crimea. The Donbass is the cause of the sanctions. See Russia needs to learn when to stop. Which gets back on topic. Russia pushed Turkey way to far, so Turkey had to react. Bombing Turkmen was stupid anyway as they are more interested in autonomy and have no interest in taking over all of Syria.
Had Russia stuck to bombing Al Nusra and ISIS this never would have happened. Again do not overstep.

Soviet Law worked extremely well on the local level. On the district level it was quite awesome. The problems started to happen on the Oblast/National level. Furthermore, Crimea or no Crimea, Ukraine would've gone through roughly the same spate of leaders, and still had the exact same problems, the pro-Russian East, the pro-EU West, the pro-Confederacy Southwest, and the eternally confused Center. It's not like DonBass would've gone pro EU. Ukraine, even without Crimea, is four different countries merged into one, a la Yugoslavia.

Which brings to DonBass. Putin initially didn't want it. However, when Kiev's forces started shelling the civilians, the Russian military reacted. That's why you initially had the Ukrainian military winning, and then, suddenly, losing. Review the timeline. Putin was ready to compromise on the DonBass, Poroshenko came in guns blazing, the Russian Military showed him how military tactics actually work. He got schooled like a bitch. But DonBass is much more confusing than it's reported in the West. And there still hasn't been a single decent Western report about the Kopanki.

Regarding those specific Turkmen, do you really think they'll survive the war? They shot at a Russian pilot, in direct violation of the Geneva Conventions:

Article 42 of Additional Protocol 1 of the Geneva Conventions (1977), ‘Occupants of aircraft’, states the following:

1. No person parachuting from an aircraft in distress shall be made the object of attack during his descent.
2. Upon reaching the ground in territory controlled by an adverse Party, a person who has parachuted from an aircraft in distress shall be given an opportunity to surrender before being made the object of attack, unless it is apparent that he is engaging in a hostile act.
3. Airborne troops are not protected by this Article.

They shot at rescue helicopters, killing a Russian Marine. Do you really think that Russia is going to stop flights? Russians will make sure to be even further in Syrian territory, but those groups are fucked. And if Erdogan wants to, he can come on over to Syria and see how his fighters do against Russian fighters on Syrian territory.

Yeah, I read it was a cycle of reciprocation over the Turkmen villages being attacked. Russia should have tried to get a deal cut with the Turkmen before deciding "BOMB EM", but they didn't and now Turkey is up in arms too and decides the right thing to do is shoot down a plane that was over their territory for, what, less than 20 seconds? Fuckin' A right there.

Anything worse to come of this than a bill recognizing the Armenian genocide in the Federal Assembly? What will Turkey do, try and convince NATO they were completely in the right over this?

Of course. It's coming. It's just that this was completely unexpected, so plans will be formulated slowly, but this isn't the end. It's the beginning.

Irrespective of that, he blatantly violated Soviet Law with the transfer of Crimea, but then again, in the USSR, some were sadly above the law, and he was one of those scumbags.

Which Soviet law did he violated?

Even if this is true, it is because the Soviet Union never bothered to held on laws. This is evident in modern day Russia and even from some Russians.
For instance the Soviet constitution of 1936 guaranteed the freedom of speech and assembly, but in praxis it was never the case. Also, the post of the First secretary was at begin in Lenins time in fact a powerless position. Than Stalin become and started to use all power thus making the post a de facto leader of the USSR, besides the prime minister.

Let's see here, illegal transfer, (he transferred Crimea as the Crimean Republic, but did not include Sevastopol,) transfer without any consultation with the people, no consultation with the Red Navy as regards to Sevastopol, transfer for personal benefit, (yes, he got money and votes out of it,) etc. And the laws worked on the local levels. Furthermore, I'm talking about the USSR after the Great Patriotic War, you know, when we actually had the time to breathe between crazy Europeans coming over and killing us, followed by crazy Lenin/Stalin doing the same...

Anything worse to come of this than a bill recognizing the Armenian genocide in the Federal Assembly?

A few things so far - a Russian airdefence warship moved into the region (the fear is there might be retaliation in kind), a Lavrov's visit to Turkey cancelled, and some negative impacts for the Turkish tourist industry (which was already hit by the instability). The Turkmen are likely to be targeted with increasing frequency; a report posted earlier showed several trucks blown up by Russian jets just after they left Turkey (likely arms/supplies for some rebel groups). All in all, I'd say nothing too bad or escalatory.

But the real fear is what may happen.

What do you mean?

Irrespective of that, he blatantly violated Soviet Law with the transfer of Crimea, but then again, in the USSR, some were sadly above the law, and he was one of those scumbags.

Yet you continue to worship an "ex member" of the USSR's corrupt law ignoring security agency.

First, I'm a Christian, so I only Worship God. Sometimes I joke that I "worship" athletes and great philosophers. Second, I agree with quite a few of Putin's policies, so I support them. Third, the reason that I support Putin is his policies on social services, improvement in sports, improvement in demographics, growth of the economy, natural resource tax, those kinds of things. It's not because he's from da KGB, or anything of that sort. He's also the most popular leader in Russia, which means the people want him. And I challenge to name a leader of Russia that's better than Putin in the past 130 years. I mean a political/national leader, not someone like Zhukov or Gagarin.

But Russia wouldn't try attacking Turkey directly in kind, would they? They wouldn't try and pull the same shit the Turks just did...
right?
What are the possibilities?

Not much really. Russian nationalists are all fired up, but Putin is actually much more reasonable than the Russian people.

Russia's economy and international relations are already on thin ice. And Turkey is very important to Russia. They cannot make them too angry.

Putin just has to do enough to save face. And hopefully the Russians are less reckless in the future. Especially around the Turks who are clearly not fucking around and not as cautious (some might say cowardly) as say the EU, Nordics and current US government.

Clearly Russia needs to not push the Turks much farther. Turkey can hurt Russia economically, they have countermeasures and can make life very difficult for Russia. And push Turkey too far and they might outright invade Syria.

Turkey is what to Russia? Very important? How so?

A -Fume and leave it at the previous reactions
B -Increase Strikes on Turkish backed rebels and Turkmen (likely)
C -Increase support to Assad (likely)
D -Offer material assistance to Kurdish groups in Syria (this may include the PKK, who do operate there and have ties with the YPG; personally I doubt it)
E -Further disrupt economic links (possible on a small level)
F -Cancel Turkstream (this had previously stalled; doubtful though)
G -Interfere more diplomatically, especially in the Caucasus, Middle East (very possible)
H -Take some drastic action/threats on Turkey's energy supplies (Turkey is the second largest market for Russian energy; unlikely though, for several reasons)
I -Stir up further Kurdish trouble, possibly in Turkey itself (difficult to see how this would be done)
J -Establish a proper set of procedures with NATO to ensure such things won't happen again (here's to hoping that this will happen)
K -The above reaction concerning AA...

(the post I'm responding to has been edited to simply include the poster's suggestions)

A - Not with Russia; you can forget about that one
B - Definitely
C - I doubt it, Assad is already extremely well supported by Russia
D - Depends; if they're on UNSC's terrorist watch list, can't do that; if they're not, I don't see why not
E - I wouldn't just limit it to small level, but we'll see
F - Absolutely, that buffoon is even more unstable than Ukraine's Drunkard
G - Sure, but I don't see how just yet
H - Depends; don't want to make Russian energy unreliable
I - Nope; if Kurds want to fight Turkey, let's aid them, but let's not give the Kurds an enemy that they don't want to fight; it's their call
J - All countries except Turkey; in case of Erdogan, fly with massive fighter escorts
K - Yep

Russia has shot down both civilian and military aircraft that was violating its or its allies' (Cuba) air space in the past. They also continue to be in denial about a civilian airliner being very likely shot down by Russian-supported rebels. They're really not in the position to throw temper tantrums over the matter.

Of course, Turkey isn't in the position to bitch about its air space getting violated either, what with them doing the same thing over and over again.

There's a difference between accidentally shooting down a plane and doing so deliberately.

[Novus America]

To Shof, I am not going to quote that whole wall of text. But several things to note. See you can blame who you want in the Donbass but Putin could have just let the rebels lose. Even if you want to do something it does not mean you should. Was it worth it? The Donbass is destroyed, relations with Ukraine destroyed, relations with the West damaged, the sanctions and for what? The Donbass is dying, the young have fled, the economy is destroyed, the population rapidly declining, they cannot survive on their own yet Russia does not want them. The people who remain are miserable. Had Ukraine been allowed to win things would be bad, but better. The shelling would have quickly stopped as the rebels would have been crushed.

See, revenge and honor and all need to be balanced against the consequences.

Same with Turkey. First of all the Turkmen shooting the pilot was wrong, but Russia started it. Why the hell was Russia bombing their villages in the first place?! And you do not know who did it, you cannot kill all Turkmen in that area. So Russia started stupid shit that escalated. More escalation is not the answer. Russia needs to save face but also deescalate before shit gets really bad.

Turkey can strike back. Turkey is a major market for Russia. Turkey controls access to the Black Sea, Turkey controls major pipelines, Turkey has a vital strategic position. Turkey can cause havoc in and easily invade Syria. And Erdogan is a bit crazy. Turkey is no shrinking violet Russia can push without consequence.

Again Russia is already on diplomatic and economic thin ice. More sanctions and more enemies is the last thing Russia needs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... rkey-s-gas

[Shofercia]

To Shof, I am not going to quote that whole wall of text. But several things to note. See you can blame who you want in the Donbass but Putin could have just let the rebels lose. Even if you want to do something it does not mean you should. Was it worth it? The Donbass is destroyed, relations with Ukraine destroyed, relations with the West damaged, the sanctions and for what? The Donbass is dying, the young have fled, the economy is destroyed, the population rapidly declining, they cannot survive on their own yet Russia does not want them. The people who remain are miserable. Had Ukraine been allowed to win things would be bad, but better. The shelling would have quickly stopped as the rebels would have been crushed.

See, revenge and honor and all need to be balanced against the consequences.

Same with Turkey. First of all the Turkmen shooting the pilot was wrong, but Russia started it. Why the hell was Russia bombing their villages in the first place?! And you do not know who did it, you cannot kill all Turkmen in that area. So Russia started stupid shit that escalated. More escalation is not the answer. Russia needs to save face but also deescalate before shit gets really bad.

Turkey can strike back. Turkey is a major market for Russia. Turkey controls access to the Black Sea, Turkey controls major pipelines, Turkey has a vital strategic position. Turkey can cause havoc in and easily invade Syria. And Erdogan is a bit crazy.

Again Russia is already on diplomatic and economic thin ice. More sanctions and more enemies is the last thing Russia needs.

The problem with that is that the assault was spearheaded by Neo-Nazi battalions. If it was just Ukrainian Armed Forces, sure they could've simply let the civilians flee, but to have Neo-Nazis massacre Slavs near Russia's borders, well, that's not something that the Russian Military was going to stand for, and Putin didn't want to go against that. The people who remain in the DonBass are being aided by Humanitarian Aid, quite a few were able to leave to Russia without fear of massacres.

Furthermore, Russia is fighting those who are fighting Assad. Turkmen are fighting Assad. Ergo, Russia is bombing them. Were the Turkmen always there, or is this an attempt by Erdogan to establish a border state? And I'm not saying massacre every single Turkmen; I am saying, send in the Special Forces to investigate, and those with guns, or those who give orders to those with guns, shoot to kill. Obviously if it's just a bunch of innocent little kids, leave them alone. But those who shot at pilots had guns, and used them. When people shoot at you, it's perfectly ok to shoot back.

Also, most of Russian imports come from Europe or Asia, and not through the Black Sea. If Turkey wants to block off the Dardanelles, I welcome it, because then Russia can respond with truly massive economic sanctions. And if Turkey invades Syria, again, go ahead. Russians, Iranians, and Kurds will massacre them and they won't be defended by NATO's Article V. And in case you didn't get it, Erdogan's act was an act of an enemy. Friends don't shoot down bombers. Swiss don't shoot down bombers. Enemies do that.

[Novus America]

To Shof, I am not going to quote that whole wall of text. But several things to note. See you can blame who you want in the Donbass but Putin could have just let the rebels lose. Even if you want to do something it does not mean you should. Was it worth it? The Donbass is destroyed, relations with Ukraine destroyed, relations with the West damaged, the sanctions and for what? The Donbass is dying, the young have fled, the economy is destroyed, the population rapidly declining, they cannot survive on their own yet Russia does not want them. The people who remain are miserable. Had Ukraine been allowed to win things would be bad, but better. The shelling would have quickly stopped as the rebels would have been crushed.

See, revenge and honor and all need to be balanced against the consequences.

Same with Turkey. First of all the Turkmen shooting the pilot was wrong, but Russia started it. Why the hell was Russia bombing their villages in the first place?! And you do not know who did it, you cannot kill all Turkmen in that area. So Russia started stupid shit that escalated. More escalation is not the answer. Russia needs to save face but also deescalate before shit gets really bad.

Turkey can strike back. Turkey is a major market for Russia. Turkey controls access to the Black Sea, Turkey controls major pipelines, Turkey has a vital strategic position. Turkey can cause havoc in and easily invade Syria. And Erdogan is a bit crazy.

Again Russia is already on diplomatic and economic thin ice. More sanctions and more enemies is the last thing Russia needs.

The problem with that is that the assault was spearheaded by Neo-Nazi battalions. If it was just Ukrainian Armed Forces, sure they could've simply let the civilians flee, but to have Neo-Nazis massacre Slavs near Russia's borders, well, that's not something that the Russian Military was going to stand for, and Putin didn't want to go against that. The people who remain in the DonBass are being aided by Humanitarian Aid, quite a few were able to leave to Russia without fear of massacres.

Furthermore, Russia is fighting those who are fighting Assad. Turkmen are fighting Assad. Ergo, Russia is bombing them. Were the Turkmen always there, or is this an attempt by Erdogan to establish a border state? And I'm not saying massacre every single Turkmen; I am saying, send in the Special Forces to investigate, and those with guns, or those who give orders to those with guns, shoot to kill. Obviously if it's just a bunch of innocent little kids, leave them alone. But those who shot at pilots had guns, and used them. When people shoot at you, it's perfectly ok to shoot back.

Also, most of Russian imports come from Europe or Asia, and not through the Black Sea. If Turkey wants to block off the Dardanelles, I welcome it, because then Russia can respond with truly massive economic sanctions. And if Turkey invades Syria, again, go ahead. Russians, Iranians, and Kurds will massacre them and they won't be defended by NATO's Article V. And in case you didn't get it, Erdogan's act was an act of an enemy. Friends don't shoot down bombers. Swiss don't shoot down bombers. Enemies do that.

Prolonging the war in the Donbass only cost lives, and there was no massacre of civilians. Some shelling of cities. But the Slavic genocide is false.

And the Turkmen were already there. Syria was part of Turkey go hundreds of years. Assad has many enemies and for good reason. Why blindly back Assad? I can see keeping him from falling but attacking everyone is not a good idea. Especially as the Turkmen are not a immediate threat. ISIS blew up a plane too. Have you forgotten? You are more power about one fighter bomber than a whole civillian plane!

Plus sending in spec ops would only result in their deaths. The terrain is the defenders favor.

Thankfully Putin is not going to do what you advocate. You do not see the consequences, he does. And Turkey could overrun Northern Syria with ease. Russia and Iran would not have the logistical capability to dislodge them. The terrain and location favors the Turks.

No and Russia cannot afford Turkey as an enemy. Plane shoot downs happen. Turkey has a right to defend its airspace. The USSR shot down two Korean planes but was not an enemy of Korea at that time.

[Ostroeuropa]

From Reddit:

People need to realize the real situation here.
The assholes in charge of Turkey are supporting some assholes in Syria. The assholes in charge of Russia are supporting different assholes in Syria.
The western world can't find anyone to support in Syria who isn't an asshole, except possibly the Kurds. Except that the US doesn't want to support the Kurds too much because it would piss off the assholes in charge of Turkey. Even though the Turks are assholes, they used to not be assholes and the US kind of wants them to not be assholes again. So the US doesn't want to be assholes to Turkey, even though it means kind of being assholes to the Kurds.
So when some other assholes in Syria (who everyone agrees are assholes) attacked the French, the Russians decided to use it as an excuse to bomb some of the assholes in Syria that they don't like, and they figured no one would really pay much attention to whether or not the assholes they bombed were actually the assholes who attacked the French. And the western governments pretty much decided to just not make a fuss about specifically which assholes the Russians bombed, since they are all assholes.
Except that the Turks were pissed that the Russians were bombing their assholes. So they decided to be assholes and kill the assholes who were killing their assholes.
Meanwhile, the Syrian people are stuck in the middle. Surrounded by assholes on all sides, with pretty much no hope of anyone who isn't an asshole coming to help them.

[Novus America]

From Reddit:

People need to realize the real situation here.
The assholes in charge of Turkey are supporting some assholes in Syria. The assholes in charge of Russia are supporting different assholes in Syria.
The western world can't find anyone to support in Syria who isn't an asshole, except possibly the Kurds. Except that the US doesn't want to support the Kurds too much because it would piss off the assholes in charge of Turkey. Even though the Turks are assholes, they used to not be assholes and the US kind of wants them to not be assholes again. So the US doesn't want to be assholes to Turkey, even though it means kind of being assholes to the Kurds.
So when some other assholes in Syria (who everyone agrees are assholes) attacked the French, the Russians decided to use it as an excuse to bomb some of the assholes in Syria that they don't like, and they figured no one would really pay much attention to whether or not the assholes they bombed were actually the assholes who attacked the French. And the western governments pretty much decided to just not make a fuss about specifically which assholes the Russians bombed, since they are all assholes.
Except that the Turks were pissed that the Russians were bombing their assholes. So they decided to be assholes and kill the assholes who were killing their assholes.
Meanwhile, the Syrian people are stuck in the middle. Surrounded by assholes on all sides, with pretty much no hope of anyone who isn't an asshole coming to help them.

Actually quite a good summary of the situation.

[Roski]

From Reddit:

Actually quite a good summary of the situation.

I mean really, in some way or another, its Syria versus everyone right now.