Reports: Turkish F-16s shoot down Russian Su-24

[New Tuva SSR]

1401st reply!

[Imperializt Russia]

No, my scenario is best case scenario for Turkey. Worst case would be economic devastation, revolts, diplomatic isolation, etc. And Russia can easily fuck over Obama by simply not adhering to his Iran Compromise. There's no need for Russia to hurt all of the US. Russia, however, could hurt certain powerful groups in the US that seek to hurt Russia, which is why Obama wouldn't shoot down that plane. He needs Russia to ensure that Iran follows the treaty. Otherwise Iran can escape the obligations through Russia.

As for Russia not doing much, you do realize that few in Russia thought Erdogan was going to be that fucking stupid. A new program is being drawn, prepared, simulated, debated, etc, as we're discussing this. It was unexpected, so the response is going to take some time to formulate.

Well I do not care what Obama thinks. Sure he would bend over to Russia like he always does.
And yeah he might sell out the US. Hopefully next US leader is not a sell out.

And no, Russia is not seriously considering any of your ideas. It has already said a full embargo is not on the table. Again Russia needs the Turkish gas corridor.

Obama doesn't "bend over" to Russia.

[Purpelia]

There's already an economic attack on the Turkish Tourism industry. That's already in the billions directly, and who knows how much indirectly. Russia already passed laws declared Turkey as unstable for tourism. Lavrov already cancelled a visit.

I am surprised they even had to. Who in his right mind would actually willingly go to a country that is flooded with refugees and borders ISIS?

[Shofercia]

No, my scenario is best case scenario for Turkey. Worst case would be economic devastation, revolts, diplomatic isolation, etc. And Russia can easily fuck over Obama by simply not adhering to his Iran Compromise. There's no need for Russia to hurt all of the US. Russia, however, could hurt certain powerful groups in the US that seek to hurt Russia, which is why Obama wouldn't shoot down that plane. He needs Russia to ensure that Iran follows the treaty. Otherwise Iran can escape the obligations through Russia.

As for Russia not doing much, you do realize that few in Russia thought Erdogan was going to be that fucking stupid. A new program is being drawn, prepared, simulated, debated, etc, as we're discussing this. It was unexpected, so the response is going to take some time to formulate.

Well I do not care what Obama thinks. Sure he would bend over to Russia like he always does.
And yeah he might sell out the US. Hopefully next US leader is not a sell out.

And no, Russia is not seriously considering any of your ideas. It has already said a full embargo is not on the table. Again Russia needs the Turkish gas corridor.

Right, like Bush, whom Putin manhandled like a bitch. Or would you prefer McCain, who'd get routed and humiliated. Honestly, Republicans have no fucking reason to bitch about Obama from 2008-2012. You guys nominated McCain. And then added Palin. And your other challenger, Romney, alienated a good chunk of his supporters. It's not that Obama won the elections, it's that Republicans handed them to him on a silver platter. And now, when Republicans have a chance, Bush is still in the running. As are Carson and Fiorina. Are you guys trying to lose?

Also, where did I call for a full embargo? And Russia doesn't need a Turkish gas corridor. It'd be nice, but if it requires dealing with Erdogan, it's exactly what Russia doesn't need.

[Shofercia]

There's already an economic attack on the Turkish Tourism industry. That's already in the billions directly, and who knows how much indirectly. Russia already passed laws declared Turkey as unstable for tourism. Lavrov already cancelled a visit.

I am surprised they even had to. Who in his right mind would actually willingly go to a country that is flooded with refugees and borders ISIS?

When people tour in Mexico, they don't go to Ciudad Juarez. They go to CanCun. Similarly, most of the Turkish tourism is on the Black Sea, in areas that are far away from ISIS/ISIL.

[Baltenstein]

There's already an economic attack on the Turkish Tourism industry. That's already in the billions directly, and who knows how much indirectly. Russia already passed laws declared Turkey as unstable for tourism. Lavrov already cancelled a visit.

I am surprised they even had to. Who in his right mind would actually willingly go to a country that is flooded with refugees and borders ISIS?

Turkey is actually really nice during summer.

[Novus America]

tbh, I'm not sure that this will happen; depends how much of a big deal Russia wants this to be, and its possible, but not a given.

The best case is for him to irritate Russia, it to send a few more ships, maybe bomb Turkmen, and then NATO and Russia to agree a proper set of protocols of Syria.

There's already an economic attack on the Turkish Tourism industry. That's already in the billions directly, and who knows how much indirectly. Russia already passed laws declared Turkey as unstable for tourism. Lavrov already cancelled a visit.

Non of those options are feasible not will they be imposed. Those options would hurt Russia badly too. And if Russia tried to "lose weapons" in Turkey Russia would be an international pariah. Selling out the Palestinians would kill relations with Iran and the Arabs.

And Russia needs the Turkish gas pipes to get around Ukraine. No Russia is stuck. Just watch and see. Your ideas are crazy and Putin will not try them. As much as I dislike him Putin is not crazy.

It's not feasible for Russia to stop cooperating with Palestine, citing Erdogan as the main reason? What's unfeasible about that? It's not feasible for Russia to train and arm the Kurds outside of Turkey? What's not feasible about that? It's not feasible for Putin to visit Nicosia? Nothing might get done there, but what's not feasible about that?

Stop cooperation with Palestinians and the Arabs and Iran get pissed. That reason is not enough.
Visiting Nicosia would not do shit. Training Kurds in Russia would not hurt Turkey. The US already trains Kurds.

Sorry, unlike Obama Erdogan might be an ass but he has balls.

[Valaran]

tbh, I'm not sure that this will happen; depends how much of a big deal Russia wants this to be, and its possible, but not a given.

The best case is for him to irritate Russia, it to send a few more ships, maybe bomb Turkmen, and then NATO and Russia to agree a proper set of protocols of Syria.

There's already an economic attack on the Turkish Tourism industry. That's already in the billions directly, and who knows how much indirectly. Russia already passed laws declared Turkey as unstable for tourism. Lavrov already cancelled a visit.

I saw, but I don't think one can state its full economic effect yet; Russian tourists apparently *only* provide $4 billion in revenue, and of the figures I've seen, Russian tourists made up about 3.5 million of the visitors, out of about 40+ million in 2014, so the fallout from this will probably not be that high. And the attack so far has only gone to issue travel warnings and rhetoric, which is hardly a heavy assault. Even if every Russian tourist was to stop coming, this $4 billion is under 0.5% of GDP, and that is unlikely to be the case anyhow. Its irritating, but I wouldn't say it was anything more.

The visit is the natural diplomatic fallout, but that will probably not be totemic for all prospective Russian tourists (ie, they don't factor into their decisions where Lavrov goes).

[Novus America]

Well I do not care what Obama thinks. Sure he would bend over to Russia like he always does.
And yeah he might sell out the US. Hopefully next US leader is not a sell out.

And no, Russia is not seriously considering any of your ideas. It has already said a full embargo is not on the table. Again Russia needs the Turkish gas corridor.

Obama doesn't "bend over" to Russia.

I have a plastic reset button for you.

[The Emerald Dawn]

Obama doesn't "bend over" to Russia.

I have a plastic reset button for you.

You would prefer to be constantly antagonistic with someone who could be an ally in the middle east?

[Novus America]

Well I do not care what Obama thinks. Sure he would bend over to Russia like he always does.
And yeah he might sell out the US. Hopefully next US leader is not a sell out.

And no, Russia is not seriously considering any of your ideas. It has already said a full embargo is not on the table. Again Russia needs the Turkish gas corridor.

Right, like Bush, whom Putin manhandled like a bitch. Or would you prefer McCain, who'd get routed and humiliated. Honestly, Republicans have no fucking reason to bitch about Obama from 2008-2012. You guys nominated McCain. And then added Palin. And your other challenger, Romney, alienated a good chunk of his supporters. It's not that Obama won the elections, it's that Republicans handed them to him on a silver platter. And now, when Republicans have a chance, Bush is still in the running. As are Carson and Fiorina. Are you guys trying to lose?

Also, where did I call for a full embargo? And Russia doesn't need a Turkish gas corridor. It'd be nice, but if it requires dealing with Erdogan, it's exactly what Russia doesn't need.

Did I ever say I liked Republicans? Or the disaster of Bush? I know how badly the Republicans fucked up. That does not make Obama's foreign policy less shitty.

And it is deal with Erdogan, or Poroshenko.

[Novus America]

I have a plastic reset button for you.

You would prefer to be constantly antagonistic with someone who could be an ally in the middle east?

Russia will never be an ally anywhere. Bombing Turkmen villages is not helping against ISIS. Russia hates us. They will never forgive us for "winning" the Cold War.

[The Emerald Dawn]

You would prefer to be constantly antagonistic with someone who could be an ally in the middle east?

Russia will never be an ally anywhere. Bombing Turkmen villages is it helping against ISIS. Russia hates us. They will never forgive us for "winning" the Cold War.

It is hard to shake a hand with a closed fist.

[Imperializt Russia]

You would prefer to be constantly antagonistic with someone who could be an ally in the middle east?

Russia will never be an ally anywhere. Bombing Turkmen villages is it helping against ISIS. Russia hates us. They will never forgive us for "winning" the Cold War.

Why?
It made their leaders obscenely rich.

[Valaran]

You would prefer to be constantly antagonistic with someone who could be an ally in the middle east?

Russia will never be an ally anywhere.

In 2009, Russia and the west weren't so antagonistic to each other. One could argue that this freeze has only really gotten so bitter after 2014.

[Imperializt Russia]

Russia will never be an ally anywhere.

In 2009, Russia and the west weren't so antagonistic to each other. One could argue that this freeze has only really gotten so bitter after 2014.

It got super bitter over Crimea yes, but it was going cold before that because Putin supported Assad, was clearly suppressing opposition to rule and was manoeuvring where the west didn't like him manoeuvring.

[Novus America]

Russia will never be an ally anywhere. Bombing Turkmen villages is it helping against ISIS. Russia hates us. They will never forgive us for "winning" the Cold War.

It is hard to shake a hand with a closed fist.

There fist is closed. We tried an open hand.
Friendly with Russia is empirically proven not to work.

Their primary strathegic goal is undermining us. So we cannot come to terms, our goals are mutually exclusive and inherently antagonistic.

Plus we do not need them anymore than we needed the Soviets. In fact our rivalry with the Soviets made us stronger in many ways. It got us to the moon.

[Novus America]

Russia will never be an ally anywhere. Bombing Turkmen villages is it helping against ISIS. Russia hates us. They will never forgive us for "winning" the Cold War.

Why?
It made their leaders obscenely rich.

You ask them why. But just ask Shof. They are super butt hurt over it. And their people are less happy than the kleptocrats. Yeltsin was good for the kleptocrats. Not everyone else.

[Valaran]

In 2009, Russia and the west weren't so antagonistic to each other. One could argue that this freeze has only really gotten so bitter after 2014.

It got super bitter over Crimea yes, but it was going cold before that because Putin supported Assad, was clearly suppressing opposition to rule and was manoeuvring where the west didn't like him manoeuvring.

I wouldn't have said it was friendly, but it wasn't clear at the time that such a breach was inevitable, and I'm sure in the eyes of the new president, the situation looked reparable. Hindsight is 20/20, and I think the present situation certainly tints how we look at Russia-West relations then. At the time, I remember relative cooperation on Iran and the G20 as well as Georgia.

On Syria there was a divide, but I think that only became more pronounced as Assad didn't fall; the more common assumption in the early stages was that he would, so it didn't matter that Russia liked him. It only worsened when Russia stepped up aid, and even then, I think we didn't care that much until Ukraine hit.

/generalised views; the west obviously had many differing opinions.

[Shofercia]

There's already an economic attack on the Turkish Tourism industry. That's already in the billions directly, and who knows how much indirectly. Russia already passed laws declared Turkey as unstable for tourism. Lavrov already cancelled a visit.




It's not feasible for Russia to stop cooperating with Palestine, citing Erdogan as the main reason? What's unfeasible about that? It's not feasible for Russia to train and arm the Kurds outside of Turkey? What's not feasible about that? It's not feasible for Putin to visit Nicosia? Nothing might get done there, but what's not feasible about that?

Stop cooperation with Palestinians and the Arabs and Iran get pissed. That reason is not enough.
Visiting Nicosia would not do shit. Training Kurds in Russia would not hurt Turkey. The US already trains Kurds.

Sorry, unlike Obama Erdogan might be an ass but he has balls.

You claimed that they weren't feasible. Now you're claiming that they won't matter. First, you're wrong. Second, that's known as moving goalposts.

Obama doesn't "bend over" to Russia.

I have a plastic reset button for you.

While the button was stupid, a reset was necessary. US couldn't challenge Russia over the Caucasus, anymore than US can annex Crimea today. The reset enabled the US to get passed the humiliation of a US trained Georgian armed forces being utterly defeated.

There's already an economic attack on the Turkish Tourism industry. That's already in the billions directly, and who knows how much indirectly. Russia already passed laws declared Turkey as unstable for tourism. Lavrov already cancelled a visit.

I saw, but I don't think one can state its full economic effect yet; Russian tourists apparently *only* provide $4 billion in revenue, and of the figures I've seen, Russian tourists made up about 3.5 million of the visitors, out of about 40+ million in 2014, so the fallout from this will probably not be that high. And the attack so far has only gone to issue travel warnings and rhetoric, which is hardly a heavy assault. Even if every Russian tourist was to stop coming, this $4 billion is under 0.5% of GDP, and that is unlikely to be the case anyhow. Its irritating, but I wouldn't say it was anything more.

The visit is the natural diplomatic fallout, but that will probably not be totemic for all prospective Russian tourists (ie, they don't factor into their decisions where Lavrov goes).

Who said that only Russian tourists will be targeted? Why not give other tourists who planned to go to Turkey a free Visit Sochi package instead? Free trip in Sochi vs paid trip in Turkey, not a tough choice. Furthermore, you have to look at the tourist industry as a whole, and it is facing severe economic hardship: http://www.todayszaman.com/business_tur ... 05178.html

The two statements come as a nightmare to the Turkish tourism sector, which earlier said it had pinned its hopes on an anticipated increase in Russian tourists to Turkey. Russian tourists used to flock to Turkey's southern Mediterranean coast, particularly the resort city of Antalya. The Turkish tourism industry has already suffered from a difficult 2015 marked by political instability and regional violence in conjunction with a decline in one of the sector's biggest markets Russia... One of the country's leading tourism unions, the Turkish Hoteliers Federation (TÜROFED), said last month the Turkish tourism industry is likely to close the year with at least $10 billion in losses.

Also, Russia's Ministry of Emergencies is stellar. It can operate abroad. If if a Russian tourist gets stuck in Vietnam, for whatever reason, the RME can evacuate him/her. Yes, the odds are tiny, but it's nice to have insurance. By labeling Turkey as a bad destination, the RME is also saying that they're not going to operate there, which means that tourists would be taking additional risks, however tiny. In other news: https://www.rt.com/business/323400-russ ... urkey-jet/

Russia’s largest tour operators are terminating their business with Turkey in response to the Kremlin's travel warning to the country in the aftermath of the downing of a Russian warplane.
Major operators Pegas Touristik, Natalie Tours, Biblio Globus and Tez Tour have announced they are ending package holidays to Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov canceled his visit to Istanbul over the jet incident and recommended Russians not visit Turkey in the near future. The boycott could be a serious blow to Turkey's tourism industry. Turkey is one of the favorite and main tourist destinations for Russians. More than three million tourists from Russia visited the country last year, with over one million holiday makers in the first half of 2015. The tourism industry accounts for 11 percent of Turkey's GDP, or $170 billion. The disruption of flights from Russia could cost Turkey about $30 billion a year, according to analysts. President Putin warned Ankara on Tuesday that the downing of the Russian warplane will have grave consequences for Russia’s relations with Turkey.

[Novus America]

Russia will never be an ally anywhere.

In 2009, Russia and the west weren't so antagonistic to each other. One could argue that this freeze has only really gotten so bitter after 2014.

It was going downhill before that. Again our goals are mutually exclusive. Think about a rival sports team. You goal is to get more points. You cannot negotiate while playing against each other. We have no common goal with Russia. Again Russia is more interested fighting Turks than ISIS.

[Valaran]

[

I saw, but I don't think one can state its full economic effect yet; Russian tourists apparently *only* provide $4 billion in revenue, and of the figures I've seen, Russian tourists made up about 3.5 million of the visitors, out of about 40+ million in 2014, so the fallout from this will probably not be that high. And the attack so far has only gone to issue travel warnings and rhetoric, which is hardly a heavy assault. Even if every Russian tourist was to stop coming, this $4 billion is under 0.5% of GDP, and that is unlikely to be the case anyhow. Its irritating, but I wouldn't say it was anything more.

The visit is the natural diplomatic fallout, but that will probably not be totemic for all prospective Russian tourists (ie, they don't factor into their decisions where Lavrov goes).

Who said that only Russian tourists will be targeted? Why not give other tourists who planned to go to Turkey a free Visit Sochi package instead? Free trip in Sochi vs paid trip in Turkey, not a tough choice. Furthermore, you have to look at the tourist industry as a whole, and it is facing severe economic hardship: http://www.todayszaman.com/business_tur ... 05178.html

Russia can target others, but it won't do much. This is mostly Russian tourists.

The Turkish tourist industry is already suffering due to IS and the Middle East; no doubt. But, either way, $1-3 billion is hardly a major loss to the Turkish economy.

[Imperializt Russia]

It got super bitter over Crimea yes, but it was going cold before that because Putin supported Assad, was clearly suppressing opposition to rule and was manoeuvring where the west didn't like him manoeuvring.

I wouldn't have said it was friendly, but it wasn't clear at the time that such a breach was inevitable, and I'm sure in the eyes of the new president, the situation looked reparable. Hindsight is 20/20, and I think the present situation certainly tints how we look at Russia-West relations then. At the time, I remember relative cooperation on Iran and the G20 as well as Georgia.

On Syria there was a divide, but I think that only became more pronounced as Assad didn't fall; the more common assumption in the early stages was that he would, so it didn't matter that Russia liked him. It only worsened when Russia stepped up aid, and even then, I think we didn't care that much until Ukraine hit.

/generalised views; the west obviously had many differing opinions.

I think Bush leaving office kind of destroyed the Republicans in America.
The only person they could think of to follow Bush was McCain, a man who wasn't apparently good enough to beat Bush in 2000. Then they've just rapidly and scarily devolved, pandering to nutjobs and xenophobes.

I feel like I might miss the days when the worst prospect the Republicans had to offer us was Bush. We was a dope, but comical. His advisors board was pure evil. But Bush, himself, was measured. Not articulate, but reasonable.
I only realised this when I found a White House press release dated September 14th, 2001 (date may be off) where he specifically warned against turning 9/11 into a race war, a war against Islam or a clash of cultures. Indeed quoting the Quran, in a White House press release from the president, to push this end.

What did we get after that? McCain, Palin, the guy so incensed with Obama's run at President he thought he could run without knowing what Libya was, and fucking Trump. Oh, and Jeb Bush, who just seems like more of Bush. Unsurprisingly.

America scares me more than fucking ISIS, I'll tell you that much.

[The Emerald Dawn]

I wouldn't have said it was friendly, but it wasn't clear at the time that such a breach was inevitable, and I'm sure in the eyes of the new president, the situation looked reparable. Hindsight is 20/20, and I think the present situation certainly tints how we look at Russia-West relations then. At the time, I remember relative cooperation on Iran and the G20 as well as Georgia.

On Syria there was a divide, but I think that only became more pronounced as Assad didn't fall; the more common assumption in the early stages was that he would, so it didn't matter that Russia liked him. It only worsened when Russia stepped up aid, and even then, I think we didn't care that much until Ukraine hit.

/generalised views; the west obviously had many differing opinions.

I think Bush leaving office kind of destroyed the Republicans in America.
The only person they could think of to follow Bush was McCain, a man who wasn't apparently good enough to beat Bush in 2000. Then they've just rapidly and scarily devolved, pandering to nutjobs and xenophobes.

I feel like I might miss the days when the worst prospect the Republicans had to offer us was Bush. We was a dope, but comical. His advisors board was pure evil. But Bush, himself, was measured. Not articulate, but reasonable.
I only realised this when I found a White House press release dated September 14th, 2001 (date may be off) where he specifically warned against turning 9/11 into a race war, a war against Islam or a clash of cultures. Indeed quoting the Quran, in a White House press release from the president, to push this end.

What did we get after that? McCain, Palin, the guy so incensed with Obama's run at President he thought he could run without knowing what Libya was, and fucking Trump. Oh, and Jeb Bush, who just seems like more of Bush. Unsurprisingly.

America scares me more than fucking ISIS, I'll tell you that much.

Well, at least we can point at Uzbekibekibekistanstan.

[Novus America]

Stop cooperation with Palestinians and the Arabs and Iran get pissed. That reason is not enough.
Visiting Nicosia would not do shit. Training Kurds in Russia would not hurt Turkey. The US already trains Kurds.

Sorry, unlike Obama Erdogan might be an ass but he has balls.

You claimed that they weren't feasible. Now you're claiming that they won't matter. First, you're wrong. Second, that's known as moving goalposts.

I have a plastic reset button for you.

While the button was stupid, a reset was necessary. US couldn't challenge Russia over the Caucasus, anymore than US can annex Crimea today. The reset enabled the US to get passed the humiliation of a US trained Georgian armed forces being utterly defeated.

I saw, but I don't think one can state its full economic effect yet; Russian tourists apparently *only* provide $4 billion in revenue, and of the figures I've seen, Russian tourists made up about 3.5 million of the visitors, out of about 40+ million in 2014, so the fallout from this will probably not be that high. And the attack so far has only gone to issue travel warnings and rhetoric, which is hardly a heavy assault. Even if every Russian tourist was to stop coming, this $4 billion is under 0.5% of GDP, and that is unlikely to be the case anyhow. Its irritating, but I wouldn't say it was anything more.

The visit is the natural diplomatic fallout, but that will probably not be totemic for all prospective Russian tourists (ie, they don't factor into their decisions where Lavrov goes).

Who said that only Russian tourists will be targeted? Why not give other tourists who planned to go to Turkey a free Visit Sochi package instead? Free trip in Sochi vs paid trip in Turkey, not a tough choice. Furthermore, you have to look at the tourist industry as a whole, and it is facing severe economic hardship: http://www.todayszaman.com/business_tur ... 05178.html

The two statements come as a nightmare to the Turkish tourism sector, which earlier said it had pinned its hopes on an anticipated increase in Russian tourists to Turkey. Russian tourists used to flock to Turkey's southern Mediterranean coast, particularly the resort city of Antalya. The Turkish tourism industry has already suffered from a difficult 2015 marked by political instability and regional violence in conjunction with a decline in one of the sector's biggest markets Russia... One of the country's leading tourism unions, the Turkish Hoteliers Federation (TÜROFED), said last month the Turkish tourism industry is likely to close the year with at least $10 billion in losses.

Also, Russia's Ministry of Emergencies is stellar. It can operate abroad. If if a Russian tourist gets stuck in Vietnam, for whatever reason, the RME can evacuate him/her. Yes, the odds are tiny, but it's nice to have insurance. By labeling Turkey as a bad destination, the RME is also saying that they're not going to operate there, which means that tourists would be taking additional risks, however tiny. In other news: https://www.rt.com/business/323400-russ ... urkey-jet/

Russia’s largest tour operators are terminating their business with Turkey in response to the Kremlin's travel warning to the country in the aftermath of the downing of a Russian warplane.
Major operators Pegas Touristik, Natalie Tours, Biblio Globus and Tez Tour have announced they are ending package holidays to Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov canceled his visit to Istanbul over the jet incident and recommended Russians not visit Turkey in the near future. The boycott could be a serious blow to Turkey's tourism industry. Turkey is one of the favorite and main tourist destinations for Russians. More than three million tourists from Russia visited the country last year, with over one million holiday makers in the first half of 2015. The tourism industry accounts for 11 percent of Turkey's GDP, or $170 billion. The disruption of flights from Russia could cost Turkey about $30 billion a year, according to analysts. President Putin warned Ankara on Tuesday that the downing of the Russian warplane will have grave consequences for Russia’s relations with Turkey.

You moved the goal posts by toning down your proposals. And no we did not need a reset. Sure the Georgia thing was a little embarrassing. Although Georgia had no chance in hell so it was not that big a deal. But the Soviets embarrassed us to. One embarrassemrnt does not require a plastic toy being used in foreign relations. Plus the reset only hurt us. It did not help one bit.