Reports: Turkish F-16s shoot down Russian Su-24

[Geilinor]

Once he's gone, along with his clique, then relations can normalize. It already happened with Georgia.

With Georgia? You want Russia to invade Turkey now?

[Valaran]

By diplomatic upper hand, I mean that more nations are going to realitistically be able to sympathize for the russians.

No one really 'sympathises' with anyone; that's not how diplomacy works. And if you're referring to, public opinion, it matters rather little in this case. This is a spat, nothing else.

A: How did the Turks know that Russia wasn't going to go around the area last second

The fact that it didn't. They gave it time to; it didn't.

B: The missile hit the plane quite far from Turkish airspace. From the map turkey gave us.

Its not that far.

C: Then they shouldn't have fired a missile at the plane.

Turkey has long said it would do just that for intruders. I'm not here to justify it, but that policy was well known.

D: That's quite far into Syrian airspace to not have fired from that point.

Its a few split seconds. Not necessarily enough time to know it was outside your borders.

E: You fire a missile, and then there is evasion attempts. Or do pilots let themselves get shot down? I'm pretty sure that once a missile is fired at you, you want to get away from its evil grips.

Yeah; first one has to detect the missile and react in time. There was no change in course (iirc), so its quite possible that they simply didn't realise it was there until to late to evade. Secondly, evasion isn't quite as you say it; missiles don't suddenly miss if you turn a corner. You're attempting to assume far too much on how it went down, often against military logic.

It also doesn't have to be necessarily related to your post.

Then why reply to my post about something entirely different?

your response to Novus America.

Yeah no. I was talking about energy policy. You didn't mention the issue's severity, which was my other point. Ipso facto, no relation whatsoever.

[Valaran]

But that's not due to Saddam's brand autocracy. In fact, even by autocratic standards, Saddam was rather unstable.



Certainly true.

I am not arguing the first point. You are correct on both counts.

As are you!

[Novus America]

Seeing how Turkey has also managed to be at loggerheads with Iran over Assad (seriously, which neighbor country haven't they pissed off recently? Georgia?) I don't think Iran would be that eager to replace Russia as Turkey's energy supplier.

Iran has few other options. But Turkey and Azerbaijan are really close. And Azerbaijan can just buy gas from Iran and resell it to Turkey. Although they probably have enough to supply Turkey alone.

[Baltenstein]

Seeing how Turkey has also managed to be at loggerheads with Iran over Assad (seriously, which neighbor country haven't they pissed off recently? Georgia?) I don't think Iran would be that eager to replace Russia as Turkey's energy supplier.

Iran has few other options. But Turkey and Azerbaijan are really close. And Azerbaijan can just buy gas from Iran and resell it to Turkey. Although they probably have enough to supply Turkey alone.

The thing is, right now Turkey is a strategic enemy of Iran.

[Valaran]

Turkey has energy alternatives like Iran and Azerbaijan. And Russia cannot realistically attack Turkey. So Russia has little leverage.

Short-to-medium term economic wreckage would be the result (though I would add Saudi Arabia as an another and possibly more likely alternative). Its not nothing, since it would be worse for Turkey than Russia's recession right now. However, the point is moot; this is unlikely to happen at worst case scenario.

Aside from this, Russia has little leverage, but a plethora of methods to outmanoeuvre Turkey, diplomatically speaking.

[Shofercia]

And Turkey is not in any real trouble. Russia cannot realistically do anything to Turkey but bitch.

If this was a really serious incident, Russia could do a lot to Turkey (of course, this isn't that serious).

Taking the energy market alone, Turkey is Russia's biggest energy market after Germany - ie, Turkey relies on Russian energy.

It was telling that one of the earliest comments by the Turks was the energy minister, trying to reassure people that this hadn't affected the above.

It might affect future contracts. Also, it'd be hilarious if there was a temporary shut down of natural gas due to some, erm, structural problems, just as he said that.

You think if Russia, Iran's sole UNSC defender, shuts off the pipe that Iran, their stated enemy, is going to start supplying?

There is no honor amongst thieves. Iran needs the money. Iran often does not do what Russia wants. Plus the Azeris alone have a ton of gas and oil.

Uhhh, you do realize that Iran isn't going to sacrifice relations with Russia over Turkey, right? And during the Ossetian War, when Georgia wanted supplies fully cut to Armenia but Russia didn't, Azerbaijan cut exactly half. Azerbaijan's going to compromise here too, so there's no way for Turkey to replace all of Russian supplies, unless Turkey wants to drastically raise energy costs and go for LNG terminals. Russia should really implement a no discounts for idiots like Erdogan policy.

[Novus America]

Iran has few other options. But Turkey and Azerbaijan are really close. And Azerbaijan can just buy gas from Iran and resell it to Turkey. Although they probably have enough to supply Turkey alone.

The thing is, right now Turkey is a strategic enemy of Iran.

I am aware, but what other choices does Iran have? Turkey is its main gas conduit to European markets.

And Azerbaijan being fairly friendly with both can play a Belarus to bust sanctions, and simply buy and resell Iranian (and Russian) gas to Turkey. And mix it up so no one really knows what goes where. Neither Russian nor Iran can afford to cut off Azerbaijan.

[Valaran]

If this was a really serious incident, Russia could do a lot to Turkey (of course, this isn't that serious).

Taking the energy market alone, Turkey is Russia's biggest energy market after Germany - ie, Turkey relies on Russian energy.

It was telling that one of the earliest comments by the Turks was the energy minister, trying to reassure people that this hadn't affected the above.

It might affect future contracts. Also, it'd be hilarious if there was a temporary shut down of natural gas due to some, erm, structural problems, just as he said that.

As I undertand it, that was already the case for things like Turkish Stream anyway, though this will likely add more nails to those coffins.


I personally wouldn't call that hilarious.

[Shofercia]

Once he's gone, along with his clique, then relations can normalize. It already happened with Georgia.

With Georgia? You want Russia to invade Turkey now?

Fuck no. I was referring to how Russia normalized relations with Georgia. First, the Russians waited for Saakashvili to be voted out of office, and then Russia normalized relations. Similarly, here Russia should fuck up relations with Turkey until Erdogan and his clique are gone, and then, once someone of semi intelligence or higher enters office, and is sane, normalize relations with Turkey.

Also, Saakashvili mercilessly shelled a Russian Peacekeeping Base and threatened to ignite the Caucasus region. Russia didn't have a choice. Here, Russia's got so many choices, invasion's simply pointless.

[Novus America]

If this was a really serious incident, Russia could do a lot to Turkey (of course, this isn't that serious).

Taking the energy market alone, Turkey is Russia's biggest energy market after Germany - ie, Turkey relies on Russian energy.

It was telling that one of the earliest comments by the Turks was the energy minister, trying to reassure people that this hadn't affected the above.

It might affect future contracts. Also, it'd be hilarious if there was a temporary shut down of natural gas due to some, erm, structural problems, just as he said that.

There is no honor amongst thieves. Iran needs the money. Iran often does not do what Russia wants. Plus the Azeris alone have a ton of gas and oil.

Uhhh, you do realize that Iran isn't going to sacrifice relations with Russia over Turkey, right? And during the Ossetian War, when Georgia wanted supplies fully cut to Armenia but Russia didn't, Azerbaijan cut exactly half. Azerbaijan's going to compromise here too, so there's no way for Turkey to replace all of Russian supplies, unless Turkey wants to drastically raise energy costs and go for LNG terminals. Russia should really implement a no discounts for idiots like Erdogan policy.

The problem is Azerbaijan would increase, not decrease flow to Turkey. They are allies with Georgia but not with Russia. They would not cut off any to Turkey, their best ally. And again Turkey can just buy Russian and Iranian gas resold by Azerbaijan and Europe.

Azerbaijan cannot be sanctioned by Iran, Iran would loose access to Europe and its main conduit to Russia.

Prices would go up, but they would not lack gas.

[Novus America]

With Georgia? You want Russia to invade Turkey now?

Fuck no. I was referring to how Russia normalized relations with Georgia. First, the Russians waited for Saakashvili to be voted out of office, and then Russia normalized relations. Similarly, here Russia should fuck up relations with Turkey until Erdogan and his clique are gone, and then, once someone of semi intelligence or higher enters office, and is sane, normalize relations with Turkey.

Also, Saakashvili mercilessly shelled a Russian Peacekeeping Base and threatened to ignite the Caucasus region. Russia didn't have a choice. Here, Russia's got so many choices, invasion's simply pointless.

Erdogan is not going anywhere. And Russia had few choices. A few economic sanctions is all it has and sanctions do not work very well. Backing the Kurds outside of Turkey will not hurt Turkey. And Russia cannot do anything inside Turkey.

[Shofercia]

It might affect future contracts. Also, it'd be hilarious if there was a temporary shut down of natural gas due to some, erm, structural problems, just as he said that.




Uhhh, you do realize that Iran isn't going to sacrifice relations with Russia over Turkey, right? And during the Ossetian War, when Georgia wanted supplies fully cut to Armenia but Russia didn't, Azerbaijan cut exactly half. Azerbaijan's going to compromise here too, so there's no way for Turkey to replace all of Russian supplies, unless Turkey wants to drastically raise energy costs and go for LNG terminals. Russia should really implement a no discounts for idiots like Erdogan policy.

The problem is Azerbaijan would increase, not decrease flow to Turkey. They are allies with Georgia but not with Russia. They would not cut off any to Turkey, their best ally. And again Turkey can just buy Russian and Iranian gas resold by Azerbaijan and Europe.

Prices would go up, but they would not lack gas.

True, but then the prices would go up substantially, costing Turkey billions. They're already down billions in tourism. Their GDP is $822 billion, or at least was in 2013. Tourism, gas, etc, coming that could end up hitting anywhere between 1% to 5% of their entire economy. And again, if it escalates like subprimes, the economy could collapse. With poverty, violence could flare up in an already divided country, the recent election was anything but unifying. And this isn't like California or Texas, where we only kill each other at NFL games, lol Romo. This is serious. Would you give up one percent of America's economy to shoot a Russian bomber that didn't have any bombs, but flew over Hawaii?

[Novus America]

It might affect future contracts. Also, it'd be hilarious if there was a temporary shut down of natural gas due to some, erm, structural problems, just as he said that.

As I undertand it, that was already the case for things like Turkish Stream anyway, though this will likely add more nails to those coffins.


I personally wouldn't call that hilarious.

Russia was the one wanting Turkish stream, as Ukraine is sitting on Russia's gas routes to Southern Europe. Turkish stream was designned to bypass Ukraine. It was always less economical than the route through Ukraine.

[Valaran]

Would you give up one percent of America's economy to shoot a Russian bomber that didn't have any bombs, but flew over Hawaii?

Trump's hair called.

[Valaran]

Russia was the one wanting Turkish stream, as Ukraine is sitting on Russia's gas routes to Southern Europe. Turkish stream was designned to bypass Ukraine. It was always less economical than the route through Ukraine.

Oh, sure. And in the era of low oil prices, it was largely uneconomical anyway.

[Shofercia]

Fuck no. I was referring to how Russia normalized relations with Georgia. First, the Russians waited for Saakashvili to be voted out of office, and then Russia normalized relations. Similarly, here Russia should fuck up relations with Turkey until Erdogan and his clique are gone, and then, once someone of semi intelligence or higher enters office, and is sane, normalize relations with Turkey.

Also, Saakashvili mercilessly shelled a Russian Peacekeeping Base and threatened to ignite the Caucasus region. Russia didn't have a choice. Here, Russia's got so many choices, invasion's simply pointless.

Erdogan is not going anywhere. And Russia had few choices. A few economic sanctions is all it has and sanctions do not work very well. Backing the Kurds outside of Turkey will not hurt Turkey. And Russia cannot do anything inside Turkey.

What? Really? Backing the Kurds outside of Turkey will not hurt Turkey. So if the Kurds establish their own state, that wouldn't hurt Turkey? C'mon, you know better than that. Also, the Kurds that are outside Turkey can go inside Turkey, do some damage, and retreat from Turkey, get more Russian assistance, go back in, etc. Erdogan's been a shithead to the Kurds as well, and not just the Kurds in Turkey. Let's not forget what he tried to do at Kobane, eh?

[Rio Cana]

The thing is, right now Turkey is a strategic enemy of Iran.

I am aware, but what other choices does Iran have? Turkey is its main gas conduit to European markets.

And Azerbaijan being fairly friendly with both can play a Belarus to bust sanctions, and simply buy and resell Iranian (and Russian) gas to Turkey. And mix it up so no one really knows what goes where. Neither Russian nor Iran can afford to cut off Azerbaijan.

Iran already has a gas pipeline into Armenia. This could be easily extended to Georgia and out through Turkey. Or in the future a direct pipeline from Georgia to Eastern Europe.

Found this story from two years ago about the possible plan to export gas from Iran and other places via Syria. The writer says this why we have conflict in Syria. Some nations like Turkey would lose out on the revenue side if the gas was sent through Syria.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-geopol ... ne/5337452

[Shofercia]

Would you give up one percent of America's economy to shoot a Russian bomber that didn't have any bombs, but flew over Hawaii?

Trump's hair called.

Losing one percent of the Turkish economy over this is the best case scenario for Erdogan.

Fuck no. I was referring to how Russia normalized relations with Georgia. First, the Russians waited for Saakashvili to be voted out of office, and then Russia normalized relations. Similarly, here Russia should fuck up relations with Turkey until Erdogan and his clique are gone, and then, once someone of semi intelligence or higher enters office, and is sane, normalize relations with Turkey.

Also, Saakashvili mercilessly shelled a Russian Peacekeeping Base and threatened to ignite the Caucasus region. Russia didn't have a choice. Here, Russia's got so many choices, invasion's simply pointless.

Erdogan is not going anywhere. And Russia had few choices. A few economic sanctions is all it has and sanctions do not work very well. Backing the Kurds outside of Turkey will not hurt Turkey. And Russia cannot do anything inside Turkey.

Also, few choices? Cut trade with Turkey, diplomatically embarrass Erdogan, create an anti-Turkish alliance from everyone that Erdogan pissed off, recognize all of Cyprus as belonging to Nicosia, establish a blockade of North Cyprus with Greece and Cyprus, fuck with Erdogan's Palestine Program, (Israel would love Russia doing that,) recognize a Kurdish state within Turkey, SpetzNaz Basic training to Kurds within Russia, "losing" Soviet weaponry in areas controlled by Kurds, etc, etc, etc. Russia's got option.

[Novus America]

The problem is Azerbaijan would increase, not decrease flow to Turkey. They are allies with Georgia but not with Russia. They would not cut off any to Turkey, their best ally. And again Turkey can just buy Russian and Iranian gas resold by Azerbaijan and Europe.

Prices would go up, but they would not lack gas.

True, but then the prices would go up substantially, costing Turkey billions. They're already down billions in tourism. Their GDP is $822 billion, or at least was in 2013. Tourism, gas, etc, coming that could end up hitting anywhere between 1% to 5% of their entire economy. And again, if it escalates like subprimes, the economy could collapse. With poverty, violence could flare up in an already divided country, the recent election was anything but unifying. And this isn't like California or Texas, where we only kill each other at NFL games, lol Romo. This is serious. Would you give up one percent of America's economy to shoot a Russian bomber that didn't have any bombs, but flew over Hawaii?

Well Russia cannot do shit to the US. So I would totally shoot the Russian plane. And yes long term sovereignty is more important than a temporary economic disruption.

And Russia has not done much anyway, and real sanctions would hurt Russia too.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL8N13K3XC20151125

Plus your scenario is a worst case, not likely scenario and any disruption would be temporary. A runway crisis is not plausible.

The housing market in the us was a much bigger deal and the US did not collapse. At all.
Violence often flares up in Turkey. Erdogan would shut it down.

[Shofercia]

True, but then the prices would go up substantially, costing Turkey billions. They're already down billions in tourism. Their GDP is $822 billion, or at least was in 2013. Tourism, gas, etc, coming that could end up hitting anywhere between 1% to 5% of their entire economy. And again, if it escalates like subprimes, the economy could collapse. With poverty, violence could flare up in an already divided country, the recent election was anything but unifying. And this isn't like California or Texas, where we only kill each other at NFL games, lol Romo. This is serious. Would you give up one percent of America's economy to shoot a Russian bomber that didn't have any bombs, but flew over Hawaii?

Well Russia cannot do shit to the US. So I would totally shoot the Russian plane. And yes long term sovereignty is more important than a temporary economic disruption.

And Russia has not done much anyway, and real sanctions would hurt Russia too.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL8N13K3XC20151125

Plus your scenario is a worst case, not likely scenario and any disruption would be temporary. A runway crisis is not plausible.

The housing market in the us was a much bigger deal and the US did not collapse. At all.
Violence often flares up in Turkey. Erdogan would shut it down.

No, my scenario is best case scenario for Turkey. Worst case would be economic devastation, revolts, diplomatic isolation, etc. And Russia can easily fuck over Obama by simply not adhering to his Iran Compromise. There's no need for Russia to hurt all of the US. Russia, however, could hurt certain powerful groups in the US that seek to hurt Russia, which is why Obama wouldn't shoot down that plane. He needs Russia to ensure that Iran follows the treaty. Otherwise Iran can escape the obligations through Russia.

As for Russia not doing much, you do realize that few in Russia thought Erdogan was going to be that fucking stupid. A new program is being drawn, prepared, simulated, debated, etc, as we're discussing this. It was unexpected, so the response is going to take some time to formulate.

[Valaran]

Trump's hair called.

Losing one percent of the Turkish economy over this is the best case scenario for Erdogan.

tbh, I'm not sure that this will happen; depends how much of a big deal Russia wants this to be, and its possible, but not a given.

The best case is for him to irritate Russia, it to send a few more ships, maybe bomb Turkmen, and then NATO and Russia to agree a proper set of protocols of Syria.

[Novus America]

Trump's hair called.

Losing one percent of the Turkish economy over this is the best case scenario for Erdogan.

Erdogan is not going anywhere. And Russia had few choices. A few economic sanctions is all it has and sanctions do not work very well. Backing the Kurds outside of Turkey will not hurt Turkey. And Russia cannot do anything inside Turkey.

Also, few choices? Cut trade with Turkey, diplomatically embarrass Erdogan, create an anti-Turkish alliance from everyone that Erdogan pissed off, recognize all of Cyprus as belonging to Nicosia, establish a blockade of North Cyprus with Greece and Cyprus, fuck with Erdogan's Palestine Program, (Israel would love Russia doing that,) recognize a Kurdish state within Turkey, SpetzNaz Basic training to Kurds within Russia, "losing" Soviet weaponry in areas controlled by Kurds, etc, etc, etc. Russia's got option.

Non of those options are feasible not will they be imposed. Those options would hurt Russia badly too. And if Russia tried to "lose weapons" in Turkey Russia would be an international pariah. Selling out the Palestinians would kill relations with Iran and the Arabs.

And Russia needs the Turkish gas pipes to get around Ukraine. No Russia is stuck. Just watch and see. Your ideas are crazy and Putin will not try them. As much as I dislike him Putin is not crazy.

[Novus America]

Well Russia cannot do shit to the US. So I would totally shoot the Russian plane. And yes long term sovereignty is more important than a temporary economic disruption.

And Russia has not done much anyway, and real sanctions would hurt Russia too.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL8N13K3XC20151125

Plus your scenario is a worst case, not likely scenario and any disruption would be temporary. A runway crisis is not plausible.

The housing market in the us was a much bigger deal and the US did not collapse. At all.
Violence often flares up in Turkey. Erdogan would shut it down.

No, my scenario is best case scenario for Turkey. Worst case would be economic devastation, revolts, diplomatic isolation, etc. And Russia can easily fuck over Obama by simply not adhering to his Iran Compromise. There's no need for Russia to hurt all of the US. Russia, however, could hurt certain powerful groups in the US that seek to hurt Russia, which is why Obama wouldn't shoot down that plane. He needs Russia to ensure that Iran follows the treaty. Otherwise Iran can escape the obligations through Russia.

As for Russia not doing much, you do realize that few in Russia thought Erdogan was going to be that fucking stupid. A new program is being drawn, prepared, simulated, debated, etc, as we're discussing this. It was unexpected, so the response is going to take some time to formulate.

Well I do not care what Obama thinks. Sure he would bend over to Russia like he always does.
And yeah he might sell out the US. Hopefully next US leader is not a sell out.

And no, Russia is not seriously considering any of your ideas. It has already said a full embargo is not on the table. Again Russia needs the Turkish gas corridor.

[Shofercia]

Losing one percent of the Turkish economy over this is the best case scenario for Erdogan.

tbh, I'm not sure that this will happen; depends how much of a big deal Russia wants this to be, and its possible, but not a given.

The best case is for him to irritate Russia, it to send a few more ships, maybe bomb Turkmen, and then NATO and Russia to agree a proper set of protocols of Syria.

There's already an economic attack on the Turkish Tourism industry. That's already in the billions directly, and who knows how much indirectly. Russia already passed laws declared Turkey as unstable for tourism. Lavrov already cancelled a visit.

Losing one percent of the Turkish economy over this is the best case scenario for Erdogan.




Also, few choices? Cut trade with Turkey, diplomatically embarrass Erdogan, create an anti-Turkish alliance from everyone that Erdogan pissed off, recognize all of Cyprus as belonging to Nicosia, establish a blockade of North Cyprus with Greece and Cyprus, fuck with Erdogan's Palestine Program, (Israel would love Russia doing that,) recognize a Kurdish state within Turkey, SpetzNaz Basic training to Kurds within Russia, "losing" Soviet weaponry in areas controlled by Kurds, etc, etc, etc. Russia's got option.

Non of those options are feasible not will they be imposed. Those options would hurt Russia badly too. And if Russia tried to "lose weapons" in Turkey Russia would be an international pariah. Selling out the Palestinians would kill relations with Iran and the Arabs.

And Russia needs the Turkish gas pipes to get around Ukraine. No Russia is stuck. Just watch and see. Your ideas are crazy and Putin will not try them. As much as I dislike him Putin is not crazy.

It's not feasible for Russia to stop cooperating with Palestine, citing Erdogan as the main reason? What's unfeasible about that? It's not feasible for Russia to train and arm the Kurds outside of Turkey? What's not feasible about that? It's not feasible for Putin to visit Nicosia? Nothing might get done there, but what's not feasible about that?