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Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

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Al-Aqar
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Al-Aqar » Wed Jun 17, 2009 7:50 pm

Blouman: I would argue that our current economic crisis directly stems from the economic theory known as Trickle-Down Economics, or Reaganomics; the idea that if taxes are cut for the very rich, the money will magically make its way into the pockets of the working class. This has never been proven effective (for a more useful model, examine John Maynard Keynes' system), and its propagation by Reagan and the Bushes only made the rich richer and the poor poorer.

When the working class has less money, they buy less. When less is bought, the companies that produce goods (such as automobiles) have less capital for wages, making the working class collectively poorer yet. As these companies spiral downward, the stock market follows, taking with it the funds that the rich invested (rather than spending) in these corporations (which paid the extra capital out as CEO wages and bonuses and spent it in stock buybacks rather than increasing worker wages). Follow? So, the money the rich got in tax cuts is where now? Gone. Down the drain, poof, disappeared, because it never existed. Isn't the stock market just wonderful that way?
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Blouman Empire » Wed Jun 17, 2009 8:03 pm

Al-Aqar wrote:Blouman: I would argue that our current economic crisis directly stems from the economic theory known as Trickle-Down Economics, or Reaganomics; the idea that if taxes are cut for the very rich, the money will magically make its way into the pockets of the working class. This has never been proven effective (for a more useful model, examine John Maynard Keynes' system), and its propagation by Reagan and the Bushes only made the rich richer and the poor poorer.

When the working class has less money, they buy less. When less is bought, the companies that produce goods (such as automobiles) have less capital for wages, making the working class collectively poorer yet. As these companies spiral downward, the stock market follows, taking with it the funds that the rich invested (rather than spending) in these corporations (which paid the extra capital out as CEO wages and bonuses and spent it in stock buybacks rather than increasing worker wages). Follow? So, the money the rich got in tax cuts is where now? Gone. Down the drain, poof, disappeared, because it never existed. Isn't the stock market just wonderful that way?


However, the research being done in this is yet to support it, rather some of the reasons why it has happened I stated,
The whole mess started in June 2007 when Bear Sterns confirmed that two of the hedge funds they managed were suffering major losses due to sub prime securities, now there are many reasons for this, including how the banks used their ability to be able to offset bad loans onto other people as well as into SPV's taking them off their balance sheet, people borrowing beyond their means, the creation of Freddie Mae and Freddie Mac by Congress in the 1970's (pretty sure Bush had nothing to do with that) changes to the Basel II Accord, monetary policy (while thy were during BUsh's administration the thing to remember is that monetary policy is set by the federal reserve that acts independently of the executive) as well as the abolition of the Glass-Stegall Act while CLINTON was President. I will say again the war wasn't apart of it.


Now what you are talking about is to an extent true but not why we are in a global economic slowdown.
You know you've made it on NSG when you have a whole thread created around what you said.
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Dragontide
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Dragontide » Wed Jun 17, 2009 8:07 pm

Blouman Empire wrote:
Barringtonia wrote:Don't be silly, the article is easily good enough,

Chalmers Ashby Johnson 1931 (age 77–78) is an American author and professor emeritus of the University of California, San Diego. He fought in the Korean war, from 1967-1973 was a consultant for the CIA, and ran the Center for Chinese Studies at the University of California, Berkeley for years.


Very well but even after going through it properly it doesn't exactly place the blame on it and this quote "Our excessive military expenditures did not occur over just a few short years or simply because of the Bush administration's policies" backs up my earlier point.


Johnson was refering to the ideology that goes back to the first years of the Cold War.
Our excessive military expenditures did not occur over just a few short years or simply because of the Bush administration's policies. They have been going on for a very long time in accordance with a superficially plausible ideology and have now become entrenched in our democratic political system where they are starting to wreak havoc. This ideology I call "military Keynesianism" -- the determination to maintain a permanent war economy and to treat military output as an ordinary economic product, even though it makes no contribution to either production or consumption.

What the Bush administration did was take it to the next level with idiotic moves like adding NK to the Axis of Evil and attacking Iraq. (things that had nothing to do with US national security)

The article concludes with:
Some of the damage done can never be rectified. There are, however, some steps that this country urgently needs to take. These include reversing Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for the wealthy, beginning to liquidate our global empire of over 800 military bases, cutting from the defense budget all projects that bear no relationship to the national security of the United States, and ceasing to use the defense budget as a Keynesian jobs program. If we do these things we have a chance of squeaking by. If we don't, we face probable national insolvency and a long depression.
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Al-Aqar
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Al-Aqar » Wed Jun 17, 2009 8:41 pm

Blouman Empire wrote:However, the research being done in this is yet to support it, rather some of the reasons why it has happened I stated...*snip*
Now what you are talking about is to an extent true but not why we are in a global economic slowdown.


Pardon? I'm not sure of what you are trying to articulate here. Are you saying that there is some sort of current research that does or does not support something I said? Please do clarify; I'm honestly puzzled here.

Oh, and a pet peeve of mine is misuse of terminology: a slowdown is a term for a labor strategy involving doing the absolute minimum required work by way of protesting unfair conditions; you're probably looking for the R word (recession - any downward economic trend, leading to a depression [bottom point, no matter how low; not always Great], followed by a recovery [upward trend] and a prosperity [peak] and another recession). Apologies if any or all of that was a waste of your time (the business cycle probably was; I got carried away typing).
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Maurepas » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:07 pm

Blouman Empire wrote:
Maurepas wrote:The problem is, when mass numbers of people are returning the keys causing the bubble to burst, and its not just homes that become a problem, its cars, contractors, etc...

requiring bailouts of these industries because their customers cant buy or pay off things they already bought...


And your point?

And if you can show me an academic papers that support the war caused the global financial crisis which caused the recession the please provide it.

I said it was a factor, not that it was the primary cause, I contend that the changing of the Bankruptcy Laws was the catalyst for the Housing Bubble to burst which began the recession...

But, here:
http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/cgi-bin/blogs/voices.php/2008/07/03/p26699
The projections show the following:

-- After an initial demand stimulus, the effect of increased military spending turns negative around the sixth year. After 10 years of higher defense spending, there would be 464,000 fewer jobs than in the baseline scenario with lower defense spending.

-- Inflation and interest rates are considerably higher. After 5 years, the interest rate on 10-Year Treasury notes is projected to be 0.7 percentage points higher than in the baseline scenario. After 10 years, the gap would rise to 0.9 percentage points.

-- Higher interest rates lead to reduced demand in the interest-sensitive sectors of the economy. After 5 years, annual car and truck sales are projected to go down by 192,200 in the high military spending scenario. After 10 years, the drop is projected to be 323,300 and after 20 years annual sales are projected to be down 731,400.

-- Construction and manufacturing are the sectors that are projected to experience the largest shares of the job loss.


"It is often believed that wars and military spending increases are good for the economy," said Baker. "In fact, most economic models show that military spending diverts resources from productive uses, such as consumption and investment, and ultimately slows economic growth and reduces employment."
Last edited by Maurepas on Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Blouman Empire
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Blouman Empire » Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:09 pm

Al-Aqar wrote:Pardon? I'm not sure of what you are trying to articulate here. Are you saying that there is some sort of current research that does or does not support something I said? Please do clarify; I'm honestly puzzled here.

Oh, and a pet peeve of mine is misuse of terminology: a slowdown is a term for a labor strategy involving doing the absolute minimum required work by way of protesting unfair conditions; you're probably looking for the R word (recession - any downward economic trend, leading to a depression [bottom point, no matter how low; not always Great], followed by a recovery [upward trend] and a prosperity [peak] and another recession). Apologies if any or all of that was a waste of your time (the business cycle probably was; I got carried away typing).


Support that this is the main cause of the economic crisis?

Oh and a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

And so starts another great meaning of recession debate on NSG. :lol:
You know you've made it on NSG when you have a whole thread created around what you said.
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Free Soviets » Wed Jun 17, 2009 10:02 pm

Mr Obama's job approval rating slid to 56 per cent from 61 per cent in April, according to the survey, which had an error margin of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.


both of those numbers are well within the usual range we've gotten looking at pollster. even if we rule out the zogby internet dartboard and the consistently lower than average rasmussen - hell, insider advantage had him at 54 back in february.

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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Vetalia » Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:06 pm

That's usually what happens with any President. The honeymoon's long since worn off and people are starting to expect results. Depending on how the economy performs over the next year, he's either going to be quite well off or circling the drain...we're back to focusing on domestic issues rather than national security or foreign policy, so chances are the stimulus and associated legislation will be the issues that make him a one-term or two-term president.

Now, although I can't say I agree with all his policies, I sure as hell hope this stimulus isn't just wasted money. I'd love to see it put the economy back on solid ground, especially since we can't really afford for this recession to grind on any longer than it has. Two years is a very, very long time to be in a rut like this.
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Maurepas » Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:07 pm

Vetalia wrote:That's usually what happens with any President. The honeymoon's long since worn off and people are starting to expect results.

Well, at least the sex was good, :p

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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Vetalia » Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:11 pm

Maurepas wrote:Well, at least the sex was good, :p


I'd definitely have sex with Obama before any other candidates. He's really not that bad looking, to be honest.
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Maurepas » Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:17 pm

Vetalia wrote:
Maurepas wrote:Well, at least the sex was good, :p


I'd definitely have sex with Obama before any other candidates. He's really not that bad looking, to be honest.

Idk, Palin was pretty hot, plus, I bet she has some kinky shit in that repressed mind, :p

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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Yootopia » Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:26 pm

Parthenon wrote:
Metallic Slumber wrote:Obama rules my friends. If McCain had been voted in i assure you that we would be in Iran already.

And rightfully so. Have you not been paying attention to the rioting over election fraud? If there is a time to act it would be know given the nation's instability.

You have to be kidding me. Not wanting Achmujenidad in power is one thing, but I'm pretty sure people would unite under the slogan "kick some American arse, at least enough that the war becomes untenably expensive and unpopular with the public to continue in a democratic state".
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Eofaerwic » Thu Jun 18, 2009 2:47 am

Parthenon wrote:Your run of the mill gang members don't have people on the outside with military grade ordinance and high explosives wishing to break them out...

Any domestic incarceration of high level terrorists would put the prison staff and other inmates in serious danger as well as the community as a whole. I would much rather these scumbags be located on a military compound across the gulf that is adjacent to a nation of fellow scumbags.


Really? Because we've been incarcerating terrorists, including Al Qaeda members currently and IRA previously, in our domestic high security prisons for years and we've never had any problems. I seriously think you underestimate the resources needed to break someone out of a high security jail and overestimate both the will and the ability of these groups to do so.
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Parthenon » Thu Jun 18, 2009 3:07 am

Eofaerwic wrote:
Parthenon wrote:Your run of the mill gang members don't have people on the outside with military grade ordinance and high explosives wishing to break them out...

Any domestic incarceration of high level terrorists would put the prison staff and other inmates in serious danger as well as the community as a whole. I would much rather these scumbags be located on a military compound across the gulf that is adjacent to a nation of fellow scumbags.


Really? Because we've been incarcerating terrorists, including Al Qaeda members currently and IRA previously, in our domestic high security prisons for years and we've never had any problems. I seriously think you underestimate the resources needed to break someone out of a high security jail and overestimate both the will and the ability of these groups to do so.

Note the term "high level terrorists". Johnny Jihad isn't worth anything to Al-Queda, there are thousands of them. There is only one khalid Sheikh Mohammed however...
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Ring of Isengard » Thu Jun 18, 2009 3:09 am

Why the fuck would anyone oppose the closing of Gitmo?
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Allbeama » Thu Jun 18, 2009 3:25 am

Setting aside political views... It hasnt been very long so lets not assume he's a failure as a president. It would likely be as bad under McCain because despite all the rhetoric about getting over our differences and working together to get out of a bad situation for all of us... Republicans and Democrats and whatever are still at each others throats over politics. Nothing can change when everyone wants to point fingers and shout each other down. Obama has a job thats damn harder than anything anyone hear has to do. If your answers are easier to implement and more effective then why arent you the leader of our country?
Last edited by Allbeama on Thu Jun 18, 2009 3:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Cabra West » Thu Jun 18, 2009 3:27 am

Ring of Isengard wrote:Why the fuck would anyone oppose the closing of Gitmo?


Look at it this way :

Over the last couple of years, the US government has displaced a considerable number of people and interred them off shore, with or without charge.
They then preceeded to deny them all civil rights, even the regular prisoner of war rights, and eventually went so far as torturing some of them.

Now they're faced with having the people they mistreated moved onto the mainland. How would you feel about that?
Can't remember who it was once said "even if you had no quarrels whatsoever with the US and were in Guantanamo totally innocent, after the time you had there you're probably going to want revenge of some form".

I like how the US is trying to distribute these people all over the world now, I know Ireland will take some in. All this to avoid facing the consequences of the actions of the people they elected... ah well.
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Ring of Isengard » Thu Jun 18, 2009 3:29 am

Cabra West wrote:
Ring of Isengard wrote:Why the fuck would anyone oppose the closing of Gitmo?


Look at it this way :

Over the last couple of years, the US government has displaced a considerable number of people and interred them off shore, with or without charge.
They then preceeded to deny them all civil rights, even the regular prisoner of war rights, and eventually went so far as torturing some of them.

Now they're faced with having the people they mistreated moved onto the mainland. How would you feel about that?
Can't remember who it was once said "even if you had no quarrels whatsoever with the US and were in Guantanamo totally innocent, after the time you had there you're probably going to want revenge of some form".

I like how the US is trying to distribute these people all over the world now, I know Ireland will take some in. All this to avoid facing the consequences of the actions of the people they elected... ah well.

That's stupid. They want people being tortured?

We best not have any.
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Cabra West
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Cabra West » Thu Jun 18, 2009 3:32 am

Ring of Isengard wrote:
Cabra West wrote:
Ring of Isengard wrote:Why the fuck would anyone oppose the closing of Gitmo?


Look at it this way :

Over the last couple of years, the US government has displaced a considerable number of people and interred them off shore, with or without charge.
They then preceeded to deny them all civil rights, even the regular prisoner of war rights, and eventually went so far as torturing some of them.

Now they're faced with having the people they mistreated moved onto the mainland. How would you feel about that?
Can't remember who it was once said "even if you had no quarrels whatsoever with the US and were in Guantanamo totally innocent, after the time you had there you're probably going to want revenge of some form".

I like how the US is trying to distribute these people all over the world now, I know Ireland will take some in. All this to avoid facing the consequences of the actions of the people they elected... ah well.

That's stupid. They want people being tortured?

We best not have any.


They may, or they may not.
However, they've got enough brains in their egoistic little skulls to realise that they don't want the guys they tortured living next door. Or down the road.
"I was walking along the bank of a stream when I saw a mother otter with her cubs. A very endearing sight, and as I watched, the mother otter dived into the water and came up with a plump salmon, which she subdued and dragged on to a half-submerged log. As she ate it, while of course it was still alive, the body split and I remember to this day the sweet pinkness of its roes as they spilled out, much to the delight of the baby otters who scrambled over themselves to feed on the delicacy. One of nature’s wonders: mother and children dining upon mother and children. And that’s when I first learned about evil. It is built in to the very nature of the universe. If there is any kind of supreme being, I told myself, it is up to all of us to become his moral superior."

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Cherry Sours
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Cherry Sours » Thu Jun 18, 2009 3:36 am

He shouldn't have killed that fly. :palm:

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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Allbeama » Thu Jun 18, 2009 3:39 am

If he fucks this up in the end I may give up on my country...go somewhere else and watch from afar as the American dream dies.
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby The_pantless_hero » Thu Jun 18, 2009 4:15 am

Parthenon wrote:Note the term "high level terrorists". Johnny Jihad isn't worth anything to Al-Queda, there are thousands of them. There is only one khalid Sheikh Mohammed however...

*cough* Colorado Supermax *cough*

Welcome to the real world, we have been jailing serious terrorists on US soil for years

Ring of Isengard wrote:Why the fuck would anyone oppose the closing of Gitmo?

People are fucking idiots mostly. And they are being encouraged by the one thing the GOP is good at - fear mongering.
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Ifreann » Thu Jun 18, 2009 4:39 am

Parthenon wrote:
Gauthier wrote:
Maurepas wrote:Id like to know who was asked in the supposed polling, Me and most people Ive talked to arent opposed to it, Its not like our maximum security prisons are any less maximum security than Guantanamo Bay...


Basically it's the Senate having a case of Not My Back Yarditis. Hell, the town of Harding, Montana is begging to take in the Guantanamo inmates since a prison there would boost jobs and economy over there, but even their own Senators are saying Hell No to that.

And for people blaming Obama for Gitmo staying open, keep in mind he wasn't the one who voted No on the funding to close the place.

Your run of the mill gang members don't have people on the outside with military grade ordinance and high explosives wishing to break them out...

If any of the people incarcerated in Guantanamo do have people with such weaponry wishing to break them out then those people are in the Middle East, as is their military grade ordinance and their high explosives. Surely it would be harder to get these weapons into America and use them to crack several Supermax prisons open than it would be to get them into Cuba and crack Guantanamo open?

Any domestic incarceration of high level terrorists would put the prison staff and other inmates in serious danger as well as the community as a whole. I would much rather these scumbags be located on a military compound across the gulf that is adjacent to a nation of fellow scumbags.

Sounds like a waste of military resources and an unnecessary risk to military personnel to me. You have no control over the borders of Cuba, so you can't do anything to prevent terrorists smuggling weapons into Cuba to attack Guantanamo. Relocate them to mainland America and you have an added layer of security at no extra cost.
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby DrVenkman » Thu Jun 18, 2009 5:09 am

In regards to Obama, why would the people who elected an empty suit be upset with their selection? It's not as if performance was any important value that determined the election result. A stupid population elects a stupid president (either that or highly Machieavellian socialist) who does stupid stuff. Why is it surprising that the empty shells of people do not care?

Al-Aqar wrote:Blouman: I would argue that our current economic crisis directly stems from the economic theory known as Trickle-Down Economics, or Reaganomics; the idea that if taxes are cut for the very rich, the money will magically make its way into the pockets of the working class. This has never been proven effective (for a more useful model, examine John Maynard Keynes' system), and its propagation by Reagan and the Bushes only made the rich richer and the poor poorer.

When the working class has less money, they buy less. When less is bought, the companies that produce goods (such as automobiles) have less capital for wages, making the working class collectively poorer yet. As these companies spiral downward, the stock market follows, taking with it the funds that the rich invested (rather than spending) in these corporations (which paid the extra capital out as CEO wages and bonuses and spent it in stock buybacks rather than increasing worker wages). Follow? So, the money the rich got in tax cuts is where now? Gone. Down the drain, poof, disappeared, because it never existed. Isn't the stock market just wonderful that way?


Cool. Blame the rich when it is the rest of the classes buying all of their products and making them rich. I like the blame dispersion game when it comes to economics. Keyne's as a useful model? That's just too funny. Spending money when you don't have money. That's what got the United States in this mess in the first place. Currently the economy operates similarly to the affect of "just say it's a recession, and boom, recession" stock market model. Until only goods with real value are treated as such, the ineveitable booms and busts of the pursuit of the transcendental aesthetic of the masses will cyclically loop again and again. It's easy to blame the economy system instead of everyone who participated in it-namely all of the gleeful consumers who think different. The masses invested in the rich, trying to play the market using the rules that the rich created. That's their loss. Maybe a little less Keyne's and a little more change in the Piggy Bank could have prevented this. But no, we live in a consumerist economy; we must have our goods and have them by yesterday; to hell with real currency, I'll use my plastic card instead. But yeah, lets just blame the rich. It certainly can't be the Gucci Loafers and Coach purses that we are craving. In Bawney Fwank we trust.
Last edited by DrVenkman on Thu Jun 18, 2009 5:15 am, edited 3 times in total.

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Free Soviets
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Re: Obama's popularity slips for the first time.

Postby Free Soviets » Thu Jun 18, 2009 7:13 am

The_pantless_hero wrote:
Ring of Isengard wrote:Why the fuck would anyone oppose the closing of Gitmo?

People are fucking idiots mostly. And they are being encouraged by the one thing the GOP is good at - fear mongering.

even worse, democratic congress critters have adopted the fucking stupid goposaur talking points on this too. even in having utter domination, they still feel the need to lick someone's boots.

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