Burmese elections

[Tolko Temnota]

Burma (Myanmar) has just held its first "fair" elections in recent history.

For those of you who don't know, in their 1990 election, Aung San Suu Kyi (prominent Burmese politician, advocate for democracy, and Nobel laureate) and her party won the popular vote. However, the military junta that ruled since 1960 refused to recognize the results and kept Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest. Their next elections, in 2010, weren't exactly what one would call "democratic" either, with Suu Kyi and her party boycotting the vote and international observers calling the election a "sham".

The country's most recent elections took place on Sunday, with the military promising to respect what Burma decides this time around. The results are still coming in, but early numbers and polls are showing that Aung San Suu Kyi and her party are widely expected to win a landslide, possibly getting 70% of the vote (I'll update this OP as more is announced). However, a section of the Burmese constitution intentionally added by the military to prevent Suu Kyi from becoming president stipulates that anyone with any relatives that pledge allegiance to another country cannot become president (which is ridiculous, if you ask me), but the constitution can be directly amended by the legislature that Suu Kyi's party is set to control.

The election was far from perfect, however. About 4 million Burmese living aboard were unable to vote, and members of the Rohingya Muslim community, who number around a million, were also barred from voting due to the fact that they're not even considered citizens.

That said, I think this election will be a tremendous step forward for Burma, and for democracy. What do you think, NSG? Do you think the military will keep their word and respect the results? I think they will, and if they don't, they will lose the tiniest sliver of credibility they still had. Do you think relations with the Rohingya Muslims will improve under new country leadership? I sure hope they do, but I'm not especially optimistic with that one.

[Purpelia]

Was life bad for you under military rule? Did the military oppress you? If yes, than I can see your point. But if not I really don't. Living standards matter more than the abstract ideal of freedom.

[The Archregimancy]

Was life bad for you under military rule? Did the military oppress you? If yes, than I can see your point. But if not I really don't. Living standards matter more than the abstract ideal of freedom.

1) The Burmese military junta was notorious for violent repression

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 28603.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2006/m ... hnaglionby


2) The Burmese economy was systematically mismanaged by the eccentric isolationist junta, leading to a decline in living standards under the junta's rule. Actually, it's been arguably mismanaged since independence, but the junta was particularly bad after the 1962 coup. Quoting Wiki (with minor tense edits shown [thusly]):

Post-independence (1948-)
After a parliamentary government was formed in 1948, Prime Minister U Nu embarked upon a policy of nationalization. He attempted to make Burma a welfare state by adopting central planning measures. The government also tried to implement a poorly thought out Eight-Year plan. By the 1950s, rice exports had fallen by two thirds and mineral exports by over 96%. Plans were partly financed by printing money, which led to inflation. The 1962 coup d'état was followed by an economic scheme called the Burmese Way to Socialism, a plan to nationalize all industries. The catastrophic program turned Burma into one of the world's most impoverished countries.

The 1962 coup d'état was followed by an economic scheme called the Burmese Way to Socialism, a plan to nationalize all industries, with the exception of agriculture. The catastrophic program turned Burma into one of the world's most impoverished countries. Burma's admittance to least developed country status by the United Nations in 1987 highlighted its economic bankruptcy.

Military rule (1988 - 2011)
After 1988, the regime retreated from totalitarian socialism. It permitted modest expansion of the private sector, allowed some foreign investment, and received much needed foreign exchange. The economy [was] rated in 2009 as the least free in Asia (tied with North Korea). All fundamental market institutions [were] suppressed.Private enterprises are often co-owned or indirectly owned by state. The corruption watchdog organization Transparency International in its 2007 Corruption Perceptions Index released on 26 September 2007 ranked Burma the most corrupt country in the world, tied with Somalia.

The national currency is the kyat. Burma currently has a dual exchange rate system similar to Cuba. The market rate was around two hundred times below the government-set rate in 2006.

<snip>

Inflation averaged 30.1% between 2005 and 2007. Inflation is a serious problem for the economy. In April 2007, the National League for Democracy organized a two-day workshop on the economy. The workshop concluded that skyrocketing inflation was impeding economic growth. "Basic commodity prices have increased from 30% to 60% since the military regime promoted a salary increase for government workers in April 2006," said Soe Win, the moderator of the workshop. "Inflation is also correlated with corruption." Myint Thein, an NLD spokesperson, added: "Inflation is the critical source of the current economic crisis."

Summed up, under military rule Burma had both violent repression of civil rights and a mismanaged economy that led to an ongoing decline in living standards over a period of decades. The two factors combined in the violently supressed 8888 Uprising of 1988, one of the triggers of which was - and I kid you not - military ruler Ne Win's bizarre decision to immediately withdraw almost all of the kyat banknotes in circulation, leaving only the 45 and 90 kyat notes on the basis that Ne Win considered numbers divisible by 9 to be lucky - wiping out the savings of a significant percentage of Burmese citizens in the process.

So I can sort of see why your average voter in Mynamar might decide that the NLD can't do any worse.

[Purpelia]

Thanks for the info. That's what I wanted to know.

[Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States]

Even drunken steps in the right direction can be considered good steps. These elections might not be perfect, but they will help to facilitate change for the better for years to come. If the Liberal Democrats get their rightful share of the seats, we will see some proper reform of the constitution, making possible future democratic elections. I trust that Myanmar will continue to walk down the path to democracy, away from the junta. The course of history will not be stopped.

[Tolko Temnota]

Was life bad for you under military rule? Did the military oppress you? If yes, than I can see your point. But if not I really don't. Living standards matter more than the abstract ideal of freedom.

The Burmese military junta was notorious for violent repression, the Burmese economy was systematically mismanaged by the eccentric isolationist junta, leading to a decline in living standards under the junta's rule, etc.

Pretty much what Arch said. If it were a benevolent dictatorship, like Singapore, for example, then I would likely not support a regime change nearly as enthusiastically. It's just that the new leadership would actually have to try hard to be as bad as previous governments.

[Internationalist Bastard]

Good I always liked Suu

[Ifreann]

You go, Burma(Myanmar)!

[The Greater Aryan Race]

Pity that the UDSP is set for a thrashing at the polls, Thein Sein seemed like a pretty decent President.

[Alistan]

Don't believe what the OP believes, the military gets to occupy 25% of the parliamentary and the USDP party is just a party established by some links to the military.
Even if Aung Sann Suu Kyi wins, there still would be a power struggle occurring between the military and NLD.
The main suppliers of the Burmese military is these countries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatmadaw

[Gauthier]

So will they do something to address the systematic persecution and disenfranchisement of the Rohingya, or will it continue under the banner of Fighting Terrorism?

After all the Rohingya were disenfranchised from this election.

[Tolko Temnota]

Pity that the UDSP is set for a thrashing at the polls, Thein Sein seemed like a pretty decent President.

He was certainly better than what came before him, but I'd rather not have someone who advocates for ethnic cleansing of a minority population as a national leader.

[The Greater Aryan Race]

So will they do something to address the systematic persecution and disenfranchisement of the Rohingya, or will it continue under the banner of Fighting Terrorism?

I wouldn't bet on ASSK (or whoever the NLD puts in as President while ASSK runs things from behind the scenes) improving the livelihood of the Rohingya anytime soon. She won't want to be seen as rocking the boat and alienating her Burman/Buddhist supporters.

[Luziyca]

I hope they really respect the results.

[Gauthier]

Pity that the UDSP is set for a thrashing at the polls, Thein Sein seemed like a pretty decent President.

He was certainly better than what came before him, but I'd rather not have someone who advocates for ethnic cleansing of a minority population as a national leader.

I doubt anyone who uses "Aryan" in an account name would find someone advocating ethnic cleansing to be a bad thing.

[The Greater Aryan Race]

Pity that the UDSP is set for a thrashing at the polls, Thein Sein seemed like a pretty decent President.

He was certainly better than what came before him, but I'd rather not have someone who advocates for ethnic cleansing of a minority population as a national leader.

He proposed "resettling" the Rohingya rather than exterminating them, as what more fringe elements in Myanmar seem to be calling for. It's not a very welcoming suggestion but still.

[Tolko Temnota]

He was certainly better than what came before him, but I'd rather not have someone who advocates for ethnic cleansing of a minority population as a national leader.

He proposed "resettling" the Rohingya rather than exterminating them, as what more fringe elements in Myanmar seem to be calling for. It's not a very welcoming suggestion but still.

Yes, that is what ethnic cleansing is...being better than outright genocide doesn't actually make it any better.

[The Greater Aryan Race]

He was certainly better than what came before him, but I'd rather not have someone who advocates for ethnic cleansing of a minority population as a national leader.

I doubt anyone who uses "Aryan" in an account name would find someone advocating ethnic cleansing to be a bad thing.

Yes obviously I'm a white supremacist who spends his days in his room jerking off to a portrait of St. Hitler while simultaneously reading from Mein Kampf. That is when I'm not frequenting Stormfront and other sources of truthconspiracy websites which talk about the secret, ebul Jewish/Muslim/homosexual/Rothschild/banker New World Order plot to rule the world.

[Gauthier]

I doubt anyone who uses "Aryan" in an account name would find someone advocating ethnic cleansing to be a bad thing.

Yes obviously I'm a white supremacist who spends his days in his room jerking off to a portrait of St. Hitler while simultaneously reading from Mein Kampf. That is when I'm not frequenting Stormfront and other sources of truthconspiracy websites which talk about the secret, ebul Jewish/Muslim/homosexual/Rothschild/banker New World Order plot to rule the world.

My apologies. NSG has a tendency to attract people who genuinely play and preach that sort of stuff to the point it's hard to tell.

[Tolko Temnota]

Don't believe what the OP believes, the military gets to occupy 25% of the parliamentary and the USDP party is just a party established by some links to the military.
Even if Aung Sann Suu Kyi wins, there still would be a power struggle occurring between the military and NLD.
The main suppliers of the Burmese military is these countries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatmadaw

I am aware of this, but military officials said they would respect the results of this election. Admittedly it wouldn't be too much of a surprise if they went back on their word, but I'm trying to be optimistic.

Also, with the NLD set to have a supermajority in the legislature, the military (hopefully) won't control that section of government any longer.

As a side note, the official results of the election are taking much longer than I thought to be released...

[The Greater Aryan Race]

Yes obviously I'm a white supremacist who spends his days in his room jerking off to a portrait of St. Hitler while simultaneously reading from Mein Kampf. That is when I'm not frequenting Stormfront and other sources of truthconspiracy websites which talk about the secret, ebul Jewish/Muslim/homosexual/Rothschild/banker New World Order plot to rule the world.

My apologies. NSG has a tendency to attract people who genuinely play and preach that sort of stuff to the point it's hard to tell.

Nah it's okay, I get that a lot. Those people are easy to spot from afar.

I am aware of this, but military officials said they would respect the results of this election. Admittedly it wouldn't be too much of a surprise if they went back on their word, but I'm trying to be optimistic.

Also, with the NLD set to have a supermajority in the legislature, the military (hopefully) won't control that section of government any longer.

As a side note, the official results of the election are taking much longer than I thought to be released...

At this stage, with 25% of the parliamentary seats firmly in their grasp and a Constitution that effectively denies Aung San Suu Kyi the Presidency, there's really no point for the Tatmadaw to pull off a SLORC once again. All they have to do is sit back and veto any new laws that threaten their privileges while ensuring that some degree of competent governance is still maintained that is acceptable for Myanmar's overseas image.

[Tolko Temnota]

My apologies. NSG has a tendency to attract people who genuinely play and preach that sort of stuff to the point it's hard to tell.

Nah it's okay, I get that a lot. Those people are easy to spot from afar.

I am aware of this, but military officials said they would respect the results of this election. Admittedly it wouldn't be too much of a surprise if they went back on their word, but I'm trying to be optimistic.

Also, with the NLD set to have a supermajority in the legislature, the military (hopefully) won't control that section of government any longer.

As a side note, the official results of the election are taking much longer than I thought to be released...

At this stage, with 25% of the parliamentary seats firmly in their grasp and a Constitution that effectively denies Aung San Suu Kyi the Presidency, there's really no point for the Tatmadaw to pull off a SLORC once again. All they have to do is sit back and veto any new laws that threaten their privileges while ensuring that some degree of competent governance is still maintained that is acceptable for Myanmar's overseas image.

I can't find anything that says the military gets a veto in either the House of Nationalities or the House of Representatives. Source?

[Liberty and Linguistics]

Yes obviously I'm a white supremacist who spends his days in his room jerking off to a portrait of St. Hitler while simultaneously reading from Mein Kampf. That is when I'm not frequenting Stormfront and other sources of truthconspiracy websites which talk about the secret, ebul Jewish/Muslim/homosexual/Rothschild/banker New World Order plot to rule the world.

My apologies. NSG has a tendency to attract people who genuinely play and preach that sort of stuff to the point it's hard to tell.

Yeah, if only this were real life, that way you could smell them from afar.

[The Greater Aryan Race]

I can't find anything that says the military gets a veto in either the House of Nationalities or the House of Representatives. Source?

My mistake, a more appropriate term would be the military wielding their parliamentary votes to potentially block any legislation they consider to be running contrary to their interests.

[Tolko Temnota]

I can't find anything that says the military gets a veto in either the House of Nationalities or the House of Representatives. Source?

My mistake, a more appropriate term would be the military wielding their parliamentary votes to potentially block any legislation they consider to be running contrary to their interests.

Why do you assume a quarter of the votes is enough to block legislation pushed by >66% (or whatever percentage of seats they officially get, plus minority parties that agree with them) of the Assembly of the Union?