Russian airstrikes in Syria

[Rangila]

Scary... Erdogan shoots down one Russian plane, Russia start supporting Kurds in Turkey. The more planes shot down, the bigger the support. Erdogan needs to chill.

In the end of all this, we can expect several Oscar winning films about how sad it makes some white dude that a bunch of faceless Arabs are suffering.

Doesnt that remind me of something...

[Nationes Pii Redivivi]

In the end of all this, we can expect several Oscar winning films about how sad it makes some white dude that a bunch of faceless Arabs are suffering.

Doesnt that remind me of something...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_savior_narrative_in_film

[Costa Fierro]

Scary... Erdogan shoots down one Russian plane, Russia start supporting Kurds in Turkey. The more planes shot down, the bigger the support. Erdogan needs to chill.

No Russian aircraft have been shot down, unless you think old aircraft delivered when the Soviet Union existed count as "Russian".

[Costa Fierro]

A buffer zone would be more difficult because that would actually involve defending and managing it. Something like that would most likely require US support. But like I said, I wouldn't put anything past Erdogan.

I don't think so. The Turkish military is very well equipped and trained when compared with the current state of affairs the Syrian military is in. I don't think the Turks would need military assistance from the United States.

[Saint-Thor]

I'm a bit confused about the Russian missiles who supposedly hit Iran by accident. Russian media (which a I find biased) said it didn't happen. Western media (which I find less biased generally but incredibly biased when it comes to Russia, especially those from the US, UK and Canada) reported the news based on anonymous sources.

Also, what do you guys think about Iraq asking for Russian support against their part of the ISIS?

[Geilinor]

I'm a bit confused about the Russian missiles who supposedly hit Iran by accident. Russian media (which a I find biased) said it didn't happen. Western media (which I find less biased generally but incredibly biased when it comes to Russia, especially those from the US, UK and Canada) reported the news based on anonymous sources.

Also, what do you guys think about Iraq asking for Russian support against their part of the ISIS?

It's understandable, but the Iraqi government should know that inviting both American and Russian planes into your airspace is a bad idea.

[West Aurelia]

This has been happening for a real long time. US Backed Cuban Rebels, Taliban, Iraq, and other Arab states. This isn't something unusual to hear about.

What is gonna be weird is if we see Rebels backing rebels. Rebel-caption.

We already have that though. Boko Haram backing the ISIS in Syria.

Boko Haram is part of IS.

A buffer zone would be more difficult because that would actually involve defending and managing it. Something like that would most likely require US support. But like I said, I wouldn't put anything past Erdogan.

I don't think so. The Turkish military is very well equipped and trained when compared with the current state of affairs the Syrian military is in. I don't think the Turks would need military assistance from the United States.

I meant diplomatic support. I don't think they'd want to unilaterally declare a buffer zone in another country.

[Cartagine]

I'm a bit confused about the Russian missiles who supposedly hit Iran by accident. Russian media (which a I find biased) said it didn't happen. Western media (which I find less biased generally but incredibly biased when it comes to Russia, especially those from the US, UK and Canada) reported the news based on anonymous sources.

Also, what do you guys think about Iraq asking for Russian support against their part of the ISIS?

Meh, i doubt it happend, nobody confirmed it, not even Iran itself.
Anonymous sources may very well have been some cows being milked for all we know, i never take such sources serious in any way as they hold no value.

As for Iraq asking Russia to step in, i'd support that.

[Cartagine]

A buffer zone would be more difficult because that would actually involve defending and managing it. Something like that would most likely require US support. But like I said, I wouldn't put anything past Erdogan.

I don't think so. The Turkish military is very well equipped and trained when compared with the current state of affairs the Syrian military is in. I don't think the Turks would need military assistance from the United States.

I doubt it will happen now that Russia is involved as Russia would just ignore it and neither Turkey nor the US would have the guts to shoot down a Russian aircraft.

[Neu Leonstein]

It's good that you've made the leap to realize that China will do what's best for China; what I don't understand is why you fail to realize that acting in concert with Russia would be best for China. The alliance is based on three factors; first, no criss crossing conflicts, i.e. China and Russia have nothing to fight about. Second, the countries share a similar multipolar worldview. Third, they're both opposed to having the will of other countries bestowed on them, and have local projects that they both want completed. As far as aversion to authoritarian government, please save that for the PR gang. 

You admit that stability in the Middle East and Central Asia benefits China, and yet you fail to see how that'll strengthen the Russo-Chinese alliance. That's your problem. Vetoing with Russia isn't the say as not condemning; it's flat out supporting. Not condemning would be abstaining. Vetoing with = supporting. And China already did something substantial to aid Russia; who do you think led the charge to ensure that Russia wasn't isolated with sanctions? That's right, the BICS, and I think the C there stands for China. And yes, China won't support Russia if Russia gets quagmired in Syria, since it's extremely challenging to support things that don't exist, or won't exist. 

I'm saying that as soon as China and Russia's interests do not align, Russia will no longer have Chinese support for its agenda. I think we are agreed on that. Your argument seems to boil down to "this won't happen", to which I would reply that this is entirely conditional on just how destabilising Putin intends to be in the world. Trying to maintain a sphere of influence, whether in Eastern Europe or in the Middle East, when all you have to offer is support for authoritarian governments (and this is not about PR or preferences, but about the lack of stability and sustainability of authoritarian governments that lose support of the populace) is not going to be in the Chinese interest once it reaches a certain threshold. Russia's decline in terms of geopolitical importance cannot be halted or even reversed over the next century without pushing this threshold. That's why I think the Chinese will assess things on a case-by-case basis.

Furthermore, the SCO, where both Russia and China have equal say, is a long term venture. There's nothing short term about it. And in the SCO, the duo consider each other equal partners. Welcome to reality, bro. As for the military being broken, you do realize that Russia spends less than 5 percent, right? http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS That seems sustainable to me.

It's not, and I tell you why.

1) That is a very high number. It's a full percentage point more than the US, and the US spends a lot on its military. It is way more than any OECD average would indicate - it's almost as much as Israel, and you cannot possibly convince me that Russia's defense situation is even remotely comparable to Israel's.

2) Russia's GDP is not going to grow at the same rate it used to. Even abstracting from everything else (productivity, degradation of the capital stock etc), its population is barely stable, while that of China or the US is growing at a faster pace. To keep relative parity, Russia would have to expand spending significantly over time as a share of its economy.

3) The really relevant metric here is not spending as a share of GDP, but spending as a share of its fiscal potential. And that's where your claim that Putin thinks long-term is blown out of the water. In 2005 Russia's budget could be balanced at $20 per barrel, in 2013 it could be balanced at $102 per barrel. Almost a third of people are employed by the state sector - there was an increase by more than 3.5 million in state sector employees between 2004 and today to levels exceeding that seen in the USSR at times. That's not a long-term plan, that's Venezuela light. The Russian economy is dependent on two things: access to government spending for public sector projects, wealth and public sector employment, and access to foreign credit for its banking sector. We've seen over the past year or two how things are going with the latter (a huge proportion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves had to be spent on bailing out banks directly and via propping up the currency; not to mention the crazy stuff the Russian central bank had to do), and I struggle to see how the Russian economy is going to grow all that fast over the coming couple of years as a result. Which doesn't help the fiscal situation either.

And this is not starting to talk about what you find when you look at international capital flows... especially the grotesque amounts of money that certain people seem to be shipping out of Russia. You can't mean to compare that to the way China runs things (except the shipping out money part!). And even the US, for all its issues, is in a better position to maintain growth in military spending that far surpasses anything Russia can hope to muster. That's the scary thing about all this - at the moment it looks like Putin is valuing international clout over economic stability and sustainability. Regardless of whether you think that's actually the right thing to do by the Russian people, it is a strategy that if pursued over a longer period of time requires an ever increasing focus on using resources for the military. And even then it will eventually have to stop. Maybe there'll be a different government then. But if the focus remains on maintaining spheres of influence and going on international adventures, that's just plain dangerous.

And yes, the Chinese leadership thinks in terms of decades, ready for a newsflash? So does the Russian leadership. 

As I said, if the Russian leadership is thinking decades ahead, they are doing a really poor job. Assuming the Chinese are not, they can see where this is going, and I wouldn't count on them going hitching their wagon to that particular train.

[Socialist Czechia]

Some people there questioned the facts, that there are only government, Al Qaeda and ISIL, and what's left from 'liberal rebels' are few remote villages and outposts - there is no serious 'pro-western opposition' anymore.
FSA simply doesn't exist now. Who could, sold weapons to one terrorist army and let himself smuggled into Europe. There are number of reports, how 'ex-FSA fighters' are now refugees in Western Europe.
Some of them, of course, simply joined Al Qaeda or used Assad's offer to pardon deserters and joined him again.

Year old report of direct collaboration with Al Qeada and FSA's visible disintegration

this guy noticed how Al Qaeda was pissed off to find out, that FSA sells western weaponry to ISIL as well

That's why Russian joined the fight right now. Best time possible. Now, there are only legitimate government and terrorists and West has no 'good rebels' to support. You can think about Tsar Vladimir what you want, but everyone must admit, he's a smartass.

[San Verucia]

Deleted.

[Rio Cana]

So there is future:

Syrian government will be victorious anyway.

Russian will get a lot of international admiration and respect from, like, majority of human race (which isn't North America and Western Europe).

Assad will remain a president of Syria.

And there's nothing what westerners can do against all three things

Czech republic annexed by Austria or Germany.

Nothing of value was lost nor gained. /sarcasm.

You do know about the Czech Republics gold history. Who would not want to own them.

After a gap of around 18 years, Czech Republic has decided to restart gold mining operations in a big way.

According to Czech Gold Association, four different companies have applied to the Environment Ministry for exploration licenses in six central and south Bohemia territories. One of the mines touted to be surveyed is Kasperske Hory, the country's largest, whose deposits are valued at an estimated 130 billion koruna. The Czech Republic's annual consumption of gold is around 5 tons, and it has a mining history dating back 2,000 years.

However, in the last two decade, supplies of the precious metal either come from abroad or are recycled, leaving the Czechs in a unique position among their European Union counterparts. Indeed, the Czech Republic possesses some of the most gold-rich land in Europe

[Baltenstein]

Rumors that Turkey has shot down a Russian fighter jet flying around in their air space.

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest- ... amic-State

A RUSSIAN jet has been shot down by Turkish forces after it flew into the country's airspace, according to as yet unconfirmed reports circulating on social media.

The source seems to be a typical British trashbloid though, so I'm not sure about its credibility.

[Allanea]

Russian will get a lot of international admiration and respect from, like, majority of human race (which isn't North America and Western Europe).

Except Syrians, one presumes.

[DBJ]

Thanks to the russian offensive against rebels who fight ISIS, they've made significant territorial gains north of aleppo.

[The balkens]

Thanks to the russian offensive against rebels who fight ISIS, they've made significant territorial gains north of aleppo.

But god forbid if they actually fight against ISIS right?

[Wolfmanne2]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/611 ... amic-State
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news ... sh-6610679

Turkey know how it's done. These are more Brit tabloid source though, see if I can find something more reliable.

EDIT: This is all from 'unconfirmed sources'. I tried looking at Reuters for anything, but they haven't picked up on the story. Suppose we have to wait for confirmation.

[Slakonian]

Thanks to the russian offensive against rebels who fight ISIS, they've made significant territorial gains north of aleppo.

But god forbid if they actually fight against ISIS right?

Νοτ τhis shit again....

[Grand Britannia]

But god forbid if they actually fight against ISIS right?

Νοτ τhis shit again....

Forgot one T there.

[Slakonian]

Νοτ τhis shit again....

Forgot one T there.

.... of all the things apparently.....

[New Werpland]

I don't think so. The Turkish military is very well equipped and trained when compared with the current state of affairs the Syrian military is in. I don't think the Turks would need military assistance from the United States.

I doubt it will happen now that Russia is involved as Russia would just ignore it and neither Turkey nor the US would have the guts to shoot down a Russian aircraft.

For varying reasons.

[Socialist Czechia]

Russian will get a lot of international admiration and respect from, like, majority of human race (which isn't North America and Western Europe).

Except Syrians, one presumes.

Especially Syrians.

How do you think Assads resists all the attempts to destroy his regime? Do you think he would be able to hold regime together, if there wasn't actual, real syrian public support?

If people and I mean common syrian people, soldiers, workers, peasants, not (only) baathist elites, didn't supported him, he would be dead or exiled years ago already.

If common Syrian guy, who didn't ran already, of course, had only three real options, Al Qaeda, ISIL and the regime, option to pick is obvious.

Which actually are the only options now. FSA as real major power in Syrian Civil War exists now only in western newspapers.

[Allanea]

So why does Assad only control 18% of Syria if he's so popular?

Why are 30,000 people fighting for various FSA offspring groups, and 70,000 fighting for ISIS and fuck knows how many fighting for Al-Nusrah?

[The balkens]

So why does Assad only control 18% of Syria if he's so popular?

Why are 30,000 people fighting for various FSA offspring groups, and 70,000 fighting for ISIS and fuck knows how many fighting for Al-Nusrah?

Western CIA agents. *nods*