Say, the Whites win the Russian Civil War...

[Finland SSR]

Looks like what-ifs are a bit on a trend here. Maybe they're not. I will post this thread anyway. You can't stop me!

So, the question of this topic is right in the title - what if the White forces won the Russian Civil War? Shush, that's already a stretch. The questions arise from that sentence - what would happen next after the Bolsheviks are defeated? How would the world look like with a White Russian victory? How would the politics and the map of Europe change?

Obviously, to imagine this scenario to it's fullest, we need a point of divergence. A change which would make the White forces defeat the Bolsheviks, and get us to build what happens next from there. I present to you Battle of Orel. Sorry, the Wikipedia page is a bit short. In the summer and fall of 1919, the Whites were at their greatest extent. Denikin's Volunteer Army is pushing towards Moscow. In the north, forces led by Yudenich are attacking Petrograd. However, at Orel, only 200 miles from Moscow, the Red Forces pushed back the Whites. With Moscow in safer position, Lenin's regime sent large amounts of troops from there to Petrograd, successfully defending the city. These victories bought enough time from Trotsky to fully organize the Red Army, which, as we know, eventually led to a Bolshevik victory. So that's where the change comes in. Denikin's Volunteer Army manages to beat the Red forces at Orel and marches to Moscow. Petrograd doesn't receive reinforcements, so it's easy to take for Yudenich. With the two largest cities in Russia under White control, the civil war is more or less won, all that's left is cleaning up the enemy remnants.

So, discuss! I suppose I have to put my own take on this scenario, though...

As the point of divergence of this scenario is late 1919, then the White Movement is still mainly controlled by Wrangel and Kolchak, with Yudenich and Denikin also having clout. Obviously, the troubles are not over. A Red version of the Tambov rebellion is very likely, Central Asia is still nasty, there's a Ukrainian anarchist dude with a peasant army roaming around, and there's also this crazy motherfucker pillaging Mongolia, not to mention the dozens of independence movements in former Imperial provinces, but by and large the Whites have consolidated their power over the remnants of the former Empire (minus many border provinces).

Obviously, the first meeting between the White generals is quite uncomfortable. Experience has shown everyone that a return to autocracy won't be good, but at the same time are uneasy with the idea of parliamentarism and view Kerensky's Russian Republic as a joke that nearly killed the nation. Plus, the country needs a head, and hey, it's not like any of the leading Whites were ant-monarchist. At least none of the influential ones. So a zemsky sobor is hold and the practically universally popular Grand Duke Nicholas is elected Tsar Nicholas III (the Reds hated him solely because he was a Romanov).

Nicholas was a friend to democracy and parliamentary rule, and does as much as possible to turn Russia into a constitutional monarchy, mirroring the British system. The White generals keep their power, though, by estabilishing the so-called "Privy Council" to "advise the government on important matters" (think like what the General Staff tried to do in Weimar Germany). Denikin and Yudenich, having no major ambitions in the political spectrum, content themselves with important positions in the military. Kolchak was an ambitious leader, having even been recognized as the leader of Russia during the Civil War, but his dictatorial rule was rather ineffective, weak and alleniated most of the left, who would likely have a lot of influence in post-Civil War Russia, so he probably wouldn't get the prime minister slot. However, much like Ludendorff in Weimar, he could definitely become the leader of the right-wing.

Wrangel, meanwhile, had a reputation of being a just and efficient administrator, and as a military leader, despised his soldiers' lawlessness and looting, and in our timeline, after the Bolsheviks won, he became the head of the White emigres. It is likely that he would have become the first Prime Minister. While Kerensky was still alive and some of the SR supported the White Cause, the Privy Council would definitely not accept a socialist at the top.

Wrangel, unlike some other whites, wasn't entirely against the independence movements' cause. At later stages of the war, he recognized and estabilished relations with the anti-Bolshevik republics of Ukraine and Georgia, and he himself was of Baltic German origin. Given the fact that at the point, Russia was completely ravaged by War Communism and been in war for five years, he would peace out with most of the independent nations - Poland, Baltic States, Finland, maybe Ukraine and the Transcaucasian republics.

The new White Russia, however, is practically doomed to economic and political instability. The concept of democracy is quite foreign to Russian politicians, almost all of which are of Imperial background, or a military leader, or both. Corruption and political street gangs are daily. The numerous post-Civil War famines certainly don't help. With Russia ravaged, industrial capabilities are at a measly percent of what they used to be (still not very big), so the nation's economy is mainly focused on agriculture and export of raw materials, like iron, nickel, oil, coal and manganese, to the growing American and European markets. Imperial Russia did efforts at industrialization, and a democratic Russia with a free market economy and likely land reform can continue those efforts. Discontent is widespread - peasants are sick of famines, industrial workers sympathize with the left and demand better work conditions, while nationalists point out the government's weakness in foreign affairs and cry out that the Great War was deadly, but Russia only lost, despite being between the winners. You can easily see something like Mladorossi come about, but instead of speaking for the Soviets, they would outright support a fascist Italy like state. Wrangel could retire or get popped by a disgruntled far-left activist later on (or just die normally at 1928). People like Milyukov, Guchkov and Ryabushinsky would be working hard to keep everything in check.

To this hypothetical Russia, 1929 would be a very important year. First of all, Nicholas III, one of the fathers of democracy in this new Russia, dies. His heir is Kirill I, who was a supporter of the Mladorossi movement, and overall an autocrat. To parliamentarism, it's a major blow. The Russian people are often more like followers than leaders, favoringly supporting for a figurehead, a leader, rather than elected officials. And when the "father Tsar" is nigh-openly a fascist, you have problems. Meanwhile, the Great Depression begins, and since this Russia is not closed out in a socialist experiment, it also feels the consequences. Raw material and grain exports to the West are brought down to a halt, and the nation falls into an economic crisis. The local industry is no longer supplied with Western spare parts and electronics, so that too hurts. The Bolsheviks, now under either Trotsky, Kamenev or Stalin, would definitely gain support, but so would the right-wing movements.

Kolchak could try to stage a coup and disband the Privy Council to "restore order", or the Mladorossi could follow NSDAP and PNF's footsteps and take power. Maybe Kolchak could lead them, maybe Kazembek like in our timeline, or maybe some charismatic Hitler-Mussolini like figure could rise up from all the politicians and activists not executed by the Soviets in this timeline. One way or the other, Russia becomes a dictatorship again. (to be honest, Bolsheviks re-taking the power is also very plausible, but we know what happens then, so I won't even bother)

This fascist state would resemble Franco's Spain more than anything Hitler and the Nazis cooked up. Repressions of political opponents, Orthodox clerical fascism, anti-parliamentarism, suppression of minorities, et cetera. There could be clashes between the new regime and democracy supporters, but the people, already sick by over a decade of inefficient, corrupt and bickering democracy and searching for a leader, would not be supportive of their cause. Fascist Russia would definitely demand the return of territories lost after WWI and the Civil War, and probably also embrace pan-Slavism and begin to massively arm and industrialize. Overall, Poland, the Baltics and other Slavs ought to be nervous.

This is as far as I go. WW2 and beyond involves too many butterflies.

[Constantinopolis]

"If the Whites had won the war, fascism would be a Russian word." -- attributed to Leon Trotsky

Think Mussolini's Italy or Hungary under Miklós Horthy, writ large. Russia would have been the first state to be ruled by the kind of government that in our timeline we call "fascist" (but in this alternate universe, a different name would be coined for it - probably a Russian word).

However, it would be a weak fascist government, so it may end up like Nationalist China in the 1920s and 30s (i.e. weak central government, provinces run by warlords, a state of near-continuous civil war). In this case, opportunistic foreign invasions would be inevitable, most likely by Poland from the West and Japan from the East. The British Empire might take Central Asia, too, due to their obsession with putting buffers around precious India.

Basically, Russia would be screwed. There may not be a Russian state in existence by the end of the 20th century.

And if Hitler still exists and still comes to power in this universe... the entire world is screwed. There is no way that a White government could withstand the Nazis.

[Uxupox]

A probable doomed existance. Even though the Stalin did a nasty job of killing millions upon millions, he was the right leader for the job to stabilize and strengthen Russia at this point of time. Like Const said before me White Russia would have had no chance whatsoever against Hitler's Wehrmacht. Man the world would have been completely different by this point in time. I wonder what would have had happened to Maoism as well.

[Napkiraly]

"If the Whites had won the war, fascism would be a Russian word." -- attributed to Leon Trotsky

Think Mussolini's Italy or Hungary under Miklós Horthy, writ large. Russia would have been the first state to be ruled by the kind of government that in our timeline we call "fascist" (but in this alternate universe, a different name would be coined for it - probably a Russian word).

However, it would be a weak fascist government, so it may end up like Nationalist China in the 1920s and 30s (i.e. weak central government, provinces run by warlords, a state of near-continuous civil war). In this case, opportunistic foreign invasions would be inevitable, most likely by Poland from the West and Japan from the East. The British Empire might take Central Asia, too, due to their obsession with putting buffers around precious India.

Basically, Russia would be screwed. There may not be a Russian state in existence by the end of the 20th century.

And if Hitler still exists and still comes to power in this universe... the entire world is screwed. There is no way that a White government could withstand the Nazis.

It would have been considerably harder for Hitler to come to power since a lot of his rhetoric and support was in large part based upon opposition to communists, who were seen as far more dangerous due to the existence of the USSR and the amount of support it poured into various communist parties.

---

Enh, hard to say. On one hand most Whites were right wing autocracy supports. However, while nationalistic, they were mostly opposed to ethnic nationalism, particularism, and separatism. However it was a coalition of various of anti-Bolshevik factions, with the likes of the right SR's and Menshevik's joining in. In that case, it could end in a variety of ways depending on how much each of the various factions were able to enforce their will upon Russia. I think the most likely scenario is a reintroduction of the monarchy with its power and influence being determined by the strength of the various factions involved. Second would be a Russian Republic with a Weimar Republic type political climate.

[Saiwania]

Basically, Russia would be screwed. There may not be a Russian state in existence by the end of the 20th century. And if Hitler still exists and still comes to power in this universe... the entire world is screwed. There is no way that a White government could withstand the Nazis.

This sounds exactly what I would want, Russia to be permanently out of the running for Superpower-dom and the US maintaining a nuclear monopoly that gets to tell every other nation what to do.

[Gigaverse]

Basically, Russia would be screwed. There may not be a Russian state in existence by the end of the 20th century. And if Hitler still exists and still comes to power in this universe... the entire world is screwed. There is no way that a White government could withstand the Nazis.

This sounds exactly what I would want, Russia to be permanently out of the running for Superpower-dom and the US maintaining a nuclear monopoly that gets to tell every other nation what to do.

Yay US Imperialism

[Finland SSR]

"If the Whites had won the war, fascism would be a Russian word." -- attributed to Leon Trotsky
...

To be honest, the term "fascio" has been, in some form, used for various nationalist Italian movements since the 1870s, but still, interesting thoughts.

[The Archregimancy]

Which Whites?

I think the major problem with this scenario is the underlying assumption that the different White factions would actually agree on anything if they'd won.

Whatever I think of the Bolsheviks, at least they were united by a genuine ideological fervour; the Whites weren't united by very much except a dislike of the Bolsheviks. And as understandable as that dislike might have been, it never would have been enough to keep them united had they defeated the Red Army. An almost immediate extension of the civil war as Denikin, Kolchak, and other factions fought over the right to rule a prostrate carcass seems the most likely scenario.

And much as I dislike the Bolsheviks - which I do - it's not as if I'm under the illusion that the Whites were much better; in their own very different way, they were at least as violent - they were also in many cases demonstrably inept (Kolchak more so than Denikin).

One of the great tragedies of the Russian Civil War is that almost every involved party were deeply unpleasant violent murderers of some form or another. Except, perhaps, the Czechoslovak Legion; and they didn't really want to be there.

[Risottia]

Which Whites?

I think the major problem with this scenario is the underlying assumption that the different White factions would actually agree on anything if they'd won.

Whatever I think of the Bolsheviks, at least they were united by a genuine ideological fervour; the Whites weren't united by very much except a dislike of the Bolsheviks.

Maybe this could have led to a partitioning of Russia between a Republic of Russia in European Russia, supported by the Entente Powers to a point of being little more than a puppet state, and a Russian Empire Mk.2 limited to Central and Eastern Siberia with an ok from the Japanese.

[The Archregimancy]

Basically, Russia would be screwed.

Russia was screwed.

Russia was screwed whichever side won.

In the end it was screwed by Bolsheviks rather than Whites; but it was still royally screwed - as the Red Terror, Great Purges, Ukrainian famine, and Bolshevik anti-Religion campaigns (amongst others) all so amply demonstrated over the next 20 years.

It likely wouldn't have been any better under the Whites, mind; whomever had won the war would likely have spent the next 20 years in an orgy of repressive violence.

In the end, whether you prefer to be screwed by Bolsheviks or Whites is no doubt a matter of taste; but it's one set of screwing opportunities where I would have preferred to remain resolutely asexual.

[Calimera II]

We don't know. ''What if-history'' is stupid.

[Russo-Byzantine Empire]

A probable doomed existance. Even though the Stalin did a nasty job of killing millions upon millions, he was the right leader for the job to stabilize and strengthen Russia at this point of time. Like Const said before me White Russia would have had no chance whatsoever against Hitler's Wehrmacht. Man the world would have been completely different by this point in time. I wonder what would have had happened to Maoism as well.

The single biggest part of Hitler's platform was crushing Bolshevism. That was why he invaded Russia in the first place. Evenb if he did come to power in this world, he wouldn't have invaded White Russia.

[Napkiraly]

Which Whites?

I think the major problem with this scenario is the underlying assumption that the different White factions would actually agree on anything if they'd won.

Whatever I think of the Bolsheviks, at least they were united by a genuine ideological fervour; the Whites weren't united by very much except a dislike of the Bolsheviks. And as understandable as that dislike might have been, it never would have been enough to keep them united had they defeated the Red Army. An almost immediate extension of the civil war as Denikin, Kolchak, and other factions fought over the right to rule a prostrate carcass seems the most likely scenario.

And much as I dislike the Bolsheviks - which I do - it's not as if I'm under the illusion that the Whites were much better; in their own very different way, they were at least as violent - they were also in many cases demonstrably inept (Kolchak more so than Denikin).

One of the great tragedies of the Russian Civil War is that almost every involved party were deeply unpleasant violent murderers of some form or another. Except, perhaps, the Czechoslovak Legion; and they didn't really want to be there.

Oh the Whites were just as brutal and violent, as indicated by the White Terror. They were also vehemently anti-Semitic and carried out numerous pogroms.

[Napkiraly]

We don't know. ''What if-history'' is stupid.

Depends on the how it is constructed to be honest.

[New Aapelistan]

Biggest thing that would be bad for me, My homeland Finland wouldn't be independent!!!

[The Archregimancy]

Which Whites?

I think the major problem with this scenario is the underlying assumption that the different White factions would actually agree on anything if they'd won.

Whatever I think of the Bolsheviks, at least they were united by a genuine ideological fervour; the Whites weren't united by very much except a dislike of the Bolsheviks. And as understandable as that dislike might have been, it never would have been enough to keep them united had they defeated the Red Army. An almost immediate extension of the civil war as Denikin, Kolchak, and other factions fought over the right to rule a prostrate carcass seems the most likely scenario.

And much as I dislike the Bolsheviks - which I do - it's not as if I'm under the illusion that the Whites were much better; in their own very different way, they were at least as violent - they were also in many cases demonstrably inept (Kolchak more so than Denikin).

One of the great tragedies of the Russian Civil War is that almost every involved party were deeply unpleasant violent murderers of some form or another. Except, perhaps, the Czechoslovak Legion; and they didn't really want to be there.

Oh the Whites were just as brutal and violent, as indicated by the White Terror. They were also vehemently anti-Semitic and carried out numerous pogroms.

I know.

Which is why I wrote "in their own very different way, they were at least as violent" and "One of the great tragedies of the Russian Civil War is that almost every involved party were deeply unpleasant violent murderers of some form or another".

[Nirvash Type TheEND]

#RedLivesMatter

Now that the obligatory shitpost is out of the way, I'd honestly be fine with this scenario. Russia would be war-torn after the Reds resurged and the White gov't failed to maintain order. WWII progresses pretty much the same way, but VE day is a little over a year late. With no Red menace to the east, France launches a war on Germany in the 70s, taking the Rhine, and in the 80s takes the northern counties of Italy not long after. Without a a herd of cats called NATO to herd, America can finally properly annex Canada and Mexico, getting this Greater America party started right.

[Baltenstein]

Baron Ungern von Sternberg would have become supreme overlord of Glorious Russo-Mongolian Empire.

[Finland SSR]

Baron Ungern von Sternberg would have become supreme overlord of Glorious Russo-Mongolian Empire.

If the Reds could kick him out as easily as they did IRL, so could've the Whites themselves.

[The balkens]

Baron Ungern von Sternberg would have become supreme overlord of Glorious Russo-Mongolian Empire.

If the Reds could kick him out as easily as they did IRL, so could've the Whites themselves.

This is the Imperial Russian military....

if the Russo-japanese war was any indication, a White (kek) Russia would probably collapse and Russia as a nation would be a foot note in History books.

[The Qeiiam Star Cluster]

Depends on whether you pick the left SR-Mensheviks, Denikin, Wrangel or Grand Duke Dmitri in the first event.

[Constantinopolis]

Basically, Russia would be screwed. There may not be a Russian state in existence by the end of the 20th century. And if Hitler still exists and still comes to power in this universe... the entire world is screwed. There is no way that a White government could withstand the Nazis.

This sounds exactly what I would want, Russia to be permanently out of the running for Superpower-dom and the US maintaining a nuclear monopoly that gets to tell every other nation what to do.

I'm not sure the Greater Germanic Reich extending from the Atlantic to the Urals would respond very kindly to you trying to tell them what to do.

Also, uh... so I guess you're cool with letting all the Slavic peoples suffer genocide? I mean, I know US imperialism was already built on genociding the native inhabitants of one continent, but this is going a little far.

[The balkens]

This sounds exactly what I would want, Russia to be permanently out of the running for Superpower-dom and the US maintaining a nuclear monopoly that gets to tell every other nation what to do.

I'm not sure the Greater Germanic Reich extending from the Atlantic to the Urals would respond very kindly to you trying to tell them what to do.

Also, uh... so I guess you're cool with letting all the Slavic peoples suffer genocide? I mean, I know US imperialism was already built on genociding the native inhabitants of one continent, but this is going a little far.

Welcome to the 19th century.

Practically every world colonial power was doing it, probably even Russia.

[Constantinopolis]

A probable doomed existance. Even though the Stalin did a nasty job of killing millions upon millions, he was the right leader for the job to stabilize and strengthen Russia at this point of time. Like Const said before me White Russia would have had no chance whatsoever against Hitler's Wehrmacht. Man the world would have been completely different by this point in time. I wonder what would have had happened to Maoism as well.

The single biggest part of Hitler's platform was crushing Bolshevism. That was why he invaded Russia in the first place. Evenb if he did come to power in this world, he wouldn't have invaded White Russia.

Yes he would have. Bolshevism or not, Hitler still wanted Lebensraum in the East. Conquering Russia was always going to be near the top of his agenda no matter who was in power there.

One of the great tragedies of the Russian Civil War is that almost every involved party were deeply unpleasant violent murderers of some form or another.

Arch... that's true of almost every war ever fought.

That's why I don't understand a lot of the present-day lamentations over the violent nature of the Bolsheviks. Of course they were violent. Everyone was violent.

[Constantinopolis]

I'm not sure the Greater Germanic Reich extending from the Atlantic to the Urals would respond very kindly to you trying to tell them what to do.

Also, uh... so I guess you're cool with letting all the Slavic peoples suffer genocide? I mean, I know US imperialism was already built on genociding the native inhabitants of one continent, but this is going a little far.

Welcome to the 19th century.

Practically every world colonial power was doing it, probably even Russia.

I know. But the Nazis wanted to go much further. They were going to make 19th century colonial genocides look like the good old days when everyone was nice and friendly.