Ostroeuropa wrote:I suspect we'll see the nation-state become the planet-state. Multi-planetary nations won't really be a thing, though some vague notion of a human empire may come around with a set up similar to NATO.
I'm of the opinion that it won't be centred around earth. Probably mars or somewhere else, because of the aforementioned problems in trying to glue together hundreds of radically different systems of law and culture and such, compared to simply landing on mars and declaring that it's all One Nation, and always shall be.
<donning best hard sci-fi hat and then tuning dials for maximum soft sci-fi reception>
Prior to the spread of human civilization beyond the Solar system, I believe that the building block of human political and social organization beyond Earth orbit (or at most, the Earth-Moon subsystem) will be the individual habitat or facility — IOW, the base, station, or colony. In essence, everything beyond Earth itself (or [again] at most the Earth-Moon subsystem) will be the futuristic equivalent of the city-state of Classical times. There is a sound basis for this in the current treaties themselves, as I will (eventually) explain, and it is in many ways the most natural way for politics and society to be organized in the PMT future across the would-be "High Frontier".
Which brings us to human political and social organization once humanity expands beyond our Solar system.
The two big issues for interstellar exploration and colonization are energy and time. Energy is a problem because of the massive amounts of power required to accelerate a starship to even a modest fraction of light-speed, and time is a problem because even at light-speed voyages will take years. But if the means can be found to attain velocities of at least .9c (i.e., 90% of the speed of light in a vacuum), then time dilation begins to come into play — and time dilation works in a traveller's FAVOR.
Here's how that works: A voyage from Sol to Proxima Centauri, the closest star to Earth, at .01c (i.e., 1% of the speed of light in a vacuum) would take at least 424 years, 3 months, and 18 days, not allowing for acceleration or deceleration. At .1c (i.e., 10% of the speed of light in a vacuum), travel time drops to 42 years, 5 months, and 5 days, again not allowing for acceleration or deceleration. These are very long voyages, and the ability of both crewmen and equipment to make them without suffering some kind of catastrophic failure seem highly questionable.
But now let's imagine that we find a way to accelerate a starship to .9c (i.e., 90% of the speed of light in a vacuum). Ignoring time lost in accelerating and decelerating, such a starship could reach Proxima Centauri in 4 years, 8 months, and 17 days. More importantly, however, is this: Relativistic effects (and specifically, time dilation) would reduce the APPARENT length of the voyage from the viewpoint of the vessel and its crew to just 2 years and 21 days. That's much closer to falling within the range of possible human voyages, both from the standpoint of equipment capabilities and human toleration.
And at .99c (i.e., 99% of the speed of light in a vacuum), things get even better. Ignoring time lost in accelerating and decelerating, a starship traveling at .99c could reach Proxima Centauri in 4 years, 3 months, and 13 days; but thanks to time dilation, that voyage would appear to take only 7 months and 8 days (!) from the standpoint of the crew and the vessel. Accelerate the starship up to .999c (i.e., 99.9% of the speed of light in a vacuum) and the ship makes the voyage in 4 years, 2 months, and 29 days (i.e., roughly two weeks sooner) from the perspective of an Earthbound observer (or one on Proxima Centauri, for that matter); take time dilation into account, however, and the vessel and crew experience only 2 months and 8 days flight time, significantly less than even at .99c.
Finally, at .999999c (i.e., 99.9999% of the speed of light in a vacuum), the voyage still takes 4 years, 2 months, and 28 days from an Earthbound observer's perspective (i.e., one day less than at .99c); but from the standpoint of the ship and its crew, the voyage takes slightly more than 2 hours (2h 4m, to be exact) — less than half as long as a typical commercial airline flight across the North American continent. Warp drive might not be possible; but from the perspective of a relativistic starship crew, what difference does that make? It's all the same.
The point here is that we don't need to presume the ability to "break the light barrier" to imagine interstellar trade and travel. What we DO need are ridiculously powerful engines harnessing incredible amounts of energy combined extremely effective systems for sweeping dust and debris out from ahead of any would-be relativistic starship; if we have that, we can colonize the stars.
The thing is, that doesn't change the fact that it STILL takes years for ships to travel interstellar distances. The fact that relative time runs slower on the ship making the voyage is wonderful (from the standpoint of making said voyage both feasible and bearable), but it doesn't change the fact that nothing subluminal can make it from Sol to Proxima Centauri in under 4 years, 2 months, and 28 days (or, rather, 4 years, 2 months, 27 days, and 21 hours [for those of you out there who insist on extreme precision in such matters]).
All of which means that — on a PRACTICAL basis — interstellar governance and social interaction are extremely problematic. If Earth were to establish a colony within the Proxima Centauri system (or, more practically, within the Alpha Centauri system, slightly further away at 4.367 light-years distance), merely passing instructions or information back and forth would take YEARS in spite of the effects of time dilation. No order or decree from the home world could be recieved in less than 4 years, 2 months, and 28 days (or 4 years, 4 months, and 7 days in the case of Alpha Centauri), and acknowledgement of reciept (let alone acknowledgement of COMPLIANCE) couldn't get back to Earth in under 8 years, 5 months, and 25 days (or 8 years, 8 months, and 25 days in the case of Alpha Centauri).
The mere idea of trying to govern one star system from another under such circumstances is nothing short of ridiculous.
So in any relativistic interstellar future, government will AT MOST be organized along SYSTEM lines; the largest governments out there will govern individual star systems and all of their inhabitants. Cultures COULD (at least in theory) extend across multiple close star systems, but only with extreme local variations (think of how fads take time to percolate from major population centers like New York or Los Angeles to small towns in the American hinterland, and now multiply this phenomenon by an order of magnitude). "Culture groups" of roughly similar systems won't extend much more than a dozen light years in any direction, which means that each will at most encompass a dozen (or fewer) star systems, including marginal systems largely bereft of worlds capable of supporting large colonies; this means that each of these "culture groups" will probably be centered on one (or at most two) closely connected "core" systems (which will, between them, still exhibit notable differences in fashion and cultural practice), with the lesser outlying worlds (i.e., the "hardscrabble frontier" or "sticks") all having a "backwater" or "retro" flavor when compared to the "trendy" core. Travel 20-30 light-years in any direction (a relativistic journey of 1 year and 4 months [or so] at .999c, but just 15½ days at .999999c), and you'll find yourself in a totally different "culture group" that will likely either feel like another country altogether — or the like the country you just left, but in the midst of a different (and alternate) historical era.
And travel 150 light-years (a 6 year, 8 months, and 18 days voyage at .999c; but just 2 months and 17 days [or so] at .999999c), and you'll be living among people whose societies have drifted apart through literally HUNDREDS of years of differential cultural evolution. Their languages will have drifted apart; their religions will have drifted apart, and their customs and political practices will have drifted part, to the point where (at the very least) it will feel as though you're travelled from one European or Asian country to another; certain things will feel the same, but many will be different (and some things radically so).
But here's the REALLY interesting thing: If interstellar travel is relatively common, then there will exist yet another distinct culture — or a "superculture", if you prefer. This will be "ship culture", and it will consist of the shared culture and common experience of those people who live on starships, travelling from one place to another for various purposes. Because these people will all be aging VERY slowly (at only 4.4% of the speed on the rest of the universe if they travel at .999c, and at only something like 0.14% of the speed of the rest of the universe at .999999c), they will end up having a "throwback" culture compared to everybody else, to the point where (after just a few centuries) they'll seem archaic or even ancient when compared to everyone else. Their TECHNOLOGY won't be outdated, of course (because they'll be able to acquire and adopt the latest scientific breakthroughs at each stop they make on their lifelong journey across the cosmos), but their CULTURE most definitely will be. They'll be living impossibly long lives compared with everybody else (lives in excess of 2000 years if they travel at .999c, and in excess of 70,000 years[!] if they travel at .999999c). "Ship people" would likely operate outside of any wider government affiliation, observing local law at each stop but otherwise governing themselves. In order to avoid the loss of connections of friendship and affection, these "ship people" would bring their own families with them and likely only form close attachments to other "ship people", with whom they'd interact by remote communication or whenever they were (rarely) doing business in the same system at the same (relative) time.
It's not the usual interstellar sci-fi future, but it's a future that has potential as far as writing compelling works of literary fiction. Hopefully, what I've offered here will inspire some of the more creative denizens of NSG to go in that direction in some of their offerings.
C-ship's pages on Time Dilation