Greek Financial Crisis Thread

[Sebtopiaris]

"So, my people, are we fucked, or ARE WE FUCKED?"
-Tspiras rn

Greferendum, 5/6/15
[ ] Yes, we're fucked.
[ ] Yep, very fucked.

I must say, the word "yep" has a lively ring to it, I'm hoping that option wins.

[Arkolon]

A default is missing your bill. Greece missed a payment hence defaulted.

Bankruptcy is a process of handling a debt by an outside party (the Court).

The IMF not calling it a default seems to highlight some caution from the IMF itself, which I may have missed out, but according to The Guardian article, “if it looks like a default, swims like a default, and quacks like a default, then it’s probably a default”.

Being in arrears is a technical term for the IMF. For all intents and purposes, and in layman's terms, it's pretty much a default, but in technical terms it only means paying late to the IMF. The IMF will treat Greece as if it defaulted but offers it a "grace period" (usually for 30 days but this will look like it'll go on indefinitely) so that Greece can pay the loan back. So it's not really a default, since there is a grace period and the loans still exist, but it's taken as a default, because Greece is in arrears.

[Camelza]

And we didn't? Are you kidding me? Greece faced the worst austerity policies these five years, no one can deny this.

Yes, and were they effective? Were the incompetent managers sent home? Were the tax evaders found and prosecuted? Was the deficit/GDP cut down? Were absurd benefits eliminated.

There have been made considerable improvements over the last two years (ND's government included, I'm not a factionalist) in combating tax evation, while there is still room for improvement you can't say that nothing has happened. Do also note that for such reforms to be made funds are needed, funds which the current government doesn't have, along with a stable environment, which the current government doesn't have considering the whole old-party political machine of the country is fighting to bring the government down.
Furthermore, my point was that Austerity as an economic policy is doomed to fail and is an unjust anti-worker policy that brings about a new middleage in working and living conditions for the common people; we've tried it and it only plunged the Greek economy further down in recession. My opinion is that the only way out of the crisis is of a classical Keynesian shape, something which the European partners refuse to even discuss as an option.

How are you going to save Greece and its citizens with more austerity? If anything this(the memorandum, current proposal, etc) is a plan to save Greek banks and make sure Greece will continue paying its debts regardless the wellbeing of the people living in this state. Austerity itself is simply a way to reduce worker rights and production cost, saving companies in the expense of the working people.

The problem is that banks are also granting the circulation of currency, which is fundamental in the current system, especially for the lower classes who can't just move their money to offshore accounts. The only other solution would be to nationalise banks right now.

The "only other solution" is outright denied by the creditors.

I haven't had you shorted for the neoliberal austerity-advocate type Ris.

Because I'm not one. Take a peep at my earlier posts in this thread and others.

In this very post you said it's the only option and even defended it, by pretty much saying that the "greek government wasn't able to implement it correctly and that's why it failed", no? Am i interpreting your post wrongly? I'd be happy if that is the case.
But If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, it usually is.

[Camelza]

Bankruptcy is a legal protection that you can request and a court can grant, but there are no legal structures that I am aware of that can provide Greece such a status.

A default is missing your bill. Greece missed a payment hence defaulted.

Bankruptcy is a process of handling a debt by an outside party (the Court).

Any guess on what happens now?

[Greed and Death]

A default is missing your bill. Greece missed a payment hence defaulted.

Bankruptcy is a process of handling a debt by an outside party (the Court).

Any guess on what happens now?

Greece gets cut out of the credit markets even worse than before.

[Camelza]

Any guess on what happens now?

Greece gets cut out of the credit markets even worse than before.

Well, fuck. This turned out worse than expected.
I hope we won't see extremelly dramatic situation as a result of this.

[Teemant]

Reading The Guardian and it seems that Tsipras doesn't want to held referendum anymore. Probably because if Greece people vote NO (which seems most likely) they have no plan and no money to go forward.

[Greed and Death]

Greece gets cut out of the credit markets even worse than before.

Well, fuck. This turned out worse than expected.
I hope we won't see extremelly dramatic situation as a result of this.

Tsipras backed down referendum is being cancelled and the bailout terms are being accepted.

[Nordenkalt]

They should just leave the EU

[CTALNH]

Well, fuck. This turned out worse than expected.
I hope we won't see extremelly dramatic situation as a result of this.

Tsipras backed down referendum is being cancelled and the bailout terms are being accepted.

My country just died.

[Camelza]

Well, fuck. This turned out worse than expected.
I hope we won't see extremelly dramatic situation as a result of this.

Tsipras backed down referendum is being cancelled and the bailout terms are being accepted.

To be accurate he just brought to the table a proposal closer to the one the creditors presented him with and Daiselbloom said they can't agree on a proposal until after the referendum is finished.
No action was taken regarding the referendum by the Greek government, it remains as is.

[Baltenstein]

Just Greed and Death being his usual trolling self.

[Camelza]

Just Greed and Death being his usual trolling self.

Mhm.
His post is not far from what may actually happen though.

[Risottia]

Yes, and were they effective? Were the incompetent managers sent home? Were the tax evaders found and prosecuted? Was the deficit/GDP cut down? Were absurd benefits eliminated.

There have been made considerable improvements over the last two years (ND's government included, I'm not a factionalist) in combating tax evation, while there is still room for improvement you can't say that nothing has happened.

I'm pointing out that it hasn't happened ENOUGH - and Tsipras only lost time. I had a lot of hopes for the Syriza cabinet, and they're gone.

Do also note that for such reforms to be made funds are needed, funds which the current government doesn't have, along with a stable environment, which the current government doesn't have considering the whole old-party political machine of the country is fighting to bring the government down.

The first logical step, as I have already said, would have been to kick out of the seats of power the managers of the public sector that had been appointed by PASOK and ND alike. Did Syriza do so? Because I sure haven't heard about it.

Furthermore, my point was that Austerity as an economic policy is doomed to fail and is an unjust anti-worker policy that brings about a new middleage in working and living conditions for the common people; we've tried it and it only plunged the Greek economy further down in recession. My opinion is that the only way out of the crisis is of a classical Keynesian shape, something which the European partners refuse to even discuss as an option.

Austerity as an economic policy for everyday is doomed to fail, yea. Austerity as a temporary means to the end of cutting down the deficit has worked in other countries (Spain, Italy to name two), which leads me to think that in Greece it has been implemented poorly.
Also, defaulting isn't the best of option, because, the world being what it is, in the future Greece will need more loans to kickstart its economy again, and defaulting isn't going to give better loan conditions in the next future.

The "only other solution" is outright denied by the creditors.

And why is it being denied? I guess it's because the Greek cabinet has failed to earn any trust.

by pretty much saying that the "greek government wasn't able to implement it correctly and that's why it failed", no? Am i interpreting your post wrongly? I'd be happy if that is the case.
But If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, it usually is.

I fail to see how saying "Greece should repay its debt and lessen its deficit by raising VAT on luxury, by making everyone pay fully their due taxes, and by chopping off parasitic benefits, and then start investing in infrastructures or all the money it can give to workers and pensioners will end up in the hands of bankers and tax evaders again" makes me a neoliberist, or a duck, or both.

[Risottia]

They should just leave the EU

Exactly, how having to pay tarifs on their exports towards the biggest market in the area is going to help the Greek economy?

[Martean]

Just Greed and Death being his usual trolling self.

Mhm.
His post is not far from what may actually happen though.

There will still be referendum
Syriza backs the 'NO' option
The EU has not accepted their proposal.

Tsipras has just said so in ERT, the Greek public TV. Yes, there are newspapers in my country translating the interview, maybe because we see us reflected on Greece.

[Martean]

They should just leave the EU

Exactly, how having to pay tarifs on their exports towards the biggest market in the area is going to help the Greek economy?

Yeah, because the Greek economy depends on its exports, and that is why reducing labour costs by a 30% has made the Greek economy get better.

[Martean]

Furthermore, my point was that Austerity as an economic policy is doomed to fail and is an unjust anti-worker policy that brings about a new middleage in working and living conditions for the common people; we've tried it and it only plunged the Greek economy further down in recession. My opinion is that the only way out of the crisis is of a classical Keynesian shape, something which the European partners refuse to even discuss as an option.

Austerity as an economic policy for everyday is doomed to fail, yea. Austerity as a temporary means to the end of cutting down the deficit has worked in other countries (Spain, Italy to name two), which leads me to think that in Greece it has been implemented poorly.
Also, defaulting isn't the best of option, because, the world being what it is, in the future Greece will need more loans to kickstart its economy again, and defaulting isn't going to give better loan conditions in the next future.

WTF

[Chestaan]

Austerity as an economic policy for everyday is doomed to fail, yea. Austerity as a temporary means to the end of cutting down the deficit has worked in other countries (Spain, Italy to name two), which leads me to think that in Greece it has been implemented poorly.
Also, defaulting isn't the best of option, because, the world being what it is, in the future Greece will need more loans to kickstart its economy again, and defaulting isn't going to give better loan conditions in the next future.

WTF

Strange definition of worked... Also, the ECB bought up plenty of Spanish and Italian bonds, something which helped stabilise those economies but they didn't do it for Greece. Also I don't understand how Greek austerity has been poorly implemented seeing as how Greece has cut 26% off its government spending compared to Italy's 2%.

[Camelza]

There have been made considerable improvements over the last two years (ND's government included, I'm not a factionalist) in combating tax evation, while there is still room for improvement you can't say that nothing has happened.

I'm pointing out that it hasn't happened ENOUGH - and Tsipras only lost time. I had a lot of hopes for the Syriza cabinet, and they're gone.

Do also note that for such reforms to be made funds are needed, funds which the current government doesn't have, along with a stable environment, which the current government doesn't have considering the whole old-party political machine of the country is fighting to bring the government down.

The first logical step, as I have already said, would have been to kick out of the seats of power the managers of the public sector that had been appointed by PASOK and ND alike. Did Syriza do so? Because I sure haven't heard about it.

Syriza can't just sack managers of the public sector due to their political allegiance without solid proof of their guilt, there is a long bureucratic road in need for that to happen.
Do you think Tsipras is an absolute monarch just because he managed to form a coaliation government? Greece is very much ruled by Pasok and ND in many areas, including; Justice, Army, Police, Local Government(Syriza is nearly non-existent there due to the local elections happening before Syriza's popularity gain), Bureaucracy etc .....Syriza and Anel only hold a majority in the parliament, it would take years for syriza to cleanse the country from this 30-year-old(some say older) political machine.

Furthermore, my point was that Austerity as an economic policy is doomed to fail and is an unjust anti-worker policy that brings about a new middleage in working and living conditions for the common people; we've tried it and it only plunged the Greek economy further down in recession. My opinion is that the only way out of the crisis is of a classical Keynesian shape, something which the European partners refuse to even discuss as an option.

Austerity as an economic policy for everyday is doomed to fail, yea. Austerity as a temporary means to the end of cutting down the deficit has worked in other countries (Spain, Italy to name two), which leads me to think that in Greece it has been implemented poorly.

So you agree that austerity is positive? As for Greece, it failed not because it was implemented poorly, hell it was(and remains) the most harsh austerity programme of all the countries mentioned, with tremendous humanitarian effects on our society, but most importantly(at least for you); it caused the majority of Greek and Greek-based companies who based their profits in internal consumption to go bankrupt/leave, or in the best case lose tremendous amounts of capital, this, along with the impoverishment and unemployment of large parts of the Greek people meant less taxes for the government.
It failed because that's what austerity is designed for; to bring societies to their knees, so that a free market capitalist system can exist completely unrestricted without laws, or anyone voicing an opinion.

Also, defaulting isn't the best of option, because, the world being what it is, in the future Greece will need more loans to kickstart its economy again, and defaulting isn't going to give better loan conditions in the next future.

Good think I don't support Greece defaulting then.

The "only other solution" is outright denied by the creditors.

And why is it being denied? I guess it's because the Greek cabinet has failed to earn any trust.

Trust my ass, feelings have no place in political and economic juxtaposition between governments and officials, only people like you and me buy into this.
The politicians want (at best) to remain in power and protect their and their supporters interests and bussinessmen just want to make profits out of such situations.
Both sides are egotistic as hell, so no one has any trust for the other right from the beggining. There's no such a thing as "trust" in modern, or older times' politics.
If greece declared tommorow that it hands down all of its northern half to be a free-trade zone with no labour laws and no taxation for all European companies, most European leaders would praise Greece for its braveness and call them honorable people and idiotic shite like that(as they did when Samaras' government was in power).

by pretty much saying that the "greek government wasn't able to implement it correctly and that's why it failed", no? Am i interpreting your post wrongly? I'd be happy if that is the case.
But If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, it usually is.

I fail to see how saying "Greece should repay its debt and lessen its deficit by raising VAT on luxury, by making everyone pay fully their due taxes, and by chopping off parasitic benefits, and then start investing in infrastructures or all the money it can give to workers and pensioners will end up in the hands of bankers and tax evaders again" makes me a neoliberist, or a duck, or both.

You're completely misinterpreting the proposal and ignoring extremely serious parts of it.
1)VAT will not only be increased in luxury products, it will be increased in all of the Islands of Greece practically wrecking one of the poorest regions of Greece(despite turism, just look at your very own Sicily and Sardinia), as well as by 2% in general, furthermore Farmers will be excempt by all current reliefs, damning a whole sector that already has been hurt greatly in the crisis to uncertainity and chaos.
2)The Pension system will undergo a reform law from 2012 that was deemed to harsh to be implemented back then, it will practically turn the "Defined contribution" pension system into a negative "Defined benefit" pesnion system were the state will be able to pay you half the money you've managed to save in your working life in order to benefit the economy, since "working stamps" will be nullified.
3)Greece will keep bailing out its Banks, so all the money from the creditors will just end up in Credit Agricole, Commerzbank and ECB.

But It's ok, whatever's going to happen will happen, I'll plan my life accordingly.

And yes, you're a duck; Ris the Neoliberduck.

[Martean]

WTF

Strange definition of worked... Also, the ECB bought up plenty of Spanish and Italian bonds, something which helped stabilise those economies but they didn't do it for Greece. Also I don't understand how Greek austerity has been poorly implemented seeing as how Greece has cut 26% off its government spending compared to Italy's 2%.

Besides, the fact that Spain has only started growing after the government put an end to massive austerity (as the 2014 EU elections were approaching), and after seeing how now that the government is starting to invest again and ending cutbacks our economy will grow more or less a 3-4% this year. I can't understand why some people still think an austericide is the solution for europe.

[Teemant]

WTF

Strange definition of worked... Also, the ECB bought up plenty of Spanish and Italian bonds, something which helped stabilise those economies but they didn't do it for Greece. Also I don't understand how Greek austerity has been poorly implemented seeing as how Greece has cut 26% off its government spending compared to Italy's 2%.

Greece didn't so much cut their spending but it dropped just because GDP dropped but the problems remained. Cuts must be made as % of GDP (where problems are).

[Martean]

Strange definition of worked... Also, the ECB bought up plenty of Spanish and Italian bonds, something which helped stabilise those economies but they didn't do it for Greece. Also I don't understand how Greek austerity has been poorly implemented seeing as how Greece has cut 26% off its government spending compared to Italy's 2%.

Greece didn't so much cut their spending but it dropped just because GDP dropped but the problems remained. Cuts must be made as % of GDP (where problems are).

Wh...?!

Spending does NOT go down after GDP goes down. Indeed, spending tends to rise during a reccession as unemployment (therefore, unemployment subsidies) are requested for more people. What DOES go down are revenues.

And even though revenues have gone down, and there was at the start a significant rise in the spending as unemployment soared. Right now Greece has managed to pass from a 8% primary deficit to a 1% surplus. With a difference, it's GDP has gone down a 'mere' 27%.

Seeing your macroeconomic knowledge, I can understand why you consider yourself a 'right-wing liberal'

[Teemant]

Greece didn't so much cut their spending but it dropped just because GDP dropped but the problems remained. Cuts must be made as % of GDP (where problems are).

Wh...?!

Spending does NOT go down after GDP goes down. Indeed, spending tends to rise during a reccession as unemployment (therefore, unemployment subsidies) are requested for more people. What DOES go down are revenues.

And even though revenues have gone down, and there was at the start a significant rise in the spending as unemployment soared. Right now Greece has managed to pass from a 8% primary deficit to a 1% surplus. With a difference, it's GDP has gone down a 'mere' 27%.

Seeing your macroeconomic knowledge, I can understand why you consider yourself a 'right-wing liberal'

I'm not an economist but I'm more than sure that Greece can make it's debt sustainable and solve it's problems would they only beat tax evasion. Former tax-collector said in interview that this would give Greece minimum 10 billion euros a year more.

[Borusenfront]

They should just leave the EU

Exactly, how having to pay tarifs on their exports towards the biggest market in the area is going to help the Greek economy?

But what is Greece exporting? In your previous posts you explained ship manufacturing is not the best export materials.

Also, even the most greatest fans of EU integration can see the euro was a bad idea from begin.