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Greek Financial Crisis Thread

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Baltenstein
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Postby Baltenstein » Mon Jul 06, 2015 7:42 am

CTALNH wrote:To Rissotia,greed and death and Baltenstein:
No offence

Suck it.

60,53% Voted OXI

I told you so.


Yes, and now the Greek government is going to make a new proposal to the Eurogroup, which will be based on Juncker's proposal. The one that was rejected by the referendum.

OMG, such a great victory for the people. :roll:
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Kelinfort
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Postby Kelinfort » Mon Jul 06, 2015 7:46 am

Greece controls their own destiny now. Short of a new agreement with a debt writedown or debt forgiveness, Greece should exit the Eurozone. It will be the only way to have some hope of a better future.

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Postby Gauthier » Mon Jul 06, 2015 7:48 am

Oxi dokie...
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Postby Minoa » Mon Jul 06, 2015 7:52 am

Arkolon wrote:
Qart chadast wrote:
Its not like Germany has to agree with the Greeks, its about giving the Greeks some more space and time to solve the crisis. The current attitude of Germany towards Greece hasn't improved anything in Greece, its basicly a fail and its time for Merkel to realize that she isn't going to solve the Greek crisis this way.

The 'Greek crisis' is a debt crisis that is solved through debt repayment. Austerity and the plan Merkel has for Greece is essentially the only conventional way to tackle a debt crisis.

However, the debt it owes is so huge that it looks so unsustainable. I doubt Greece can realistically pay all of that.
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Arkolon
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Postby Arkolon » Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:02 am

Qart chadast wrote:
Arkolon wrote:Greece is earning money, and until June 30th Greece was on track to paying off all of its debt repayments. That is a success of austerity, as the debt crisis was essentially being solved. Unfortunately, Syriza, and all those who voted OXI, prolonged it to where we are today. I'm not going to pretend I don't see where they're coming from what with their living conditions, but compared to the alternatives voting OXI was the cruddiest choice. Greece was also about to sign a bailout package that came with reforms and lots of money, which would have helped solve the Greek crisis as it meant fulfilling debt repayments and instating much-needed reforms... which voting OXI basically blocked which is why the mess we are in now is worse than it was two weeks ago before this episode of the Greek crisis began.

The banks will collapse soon and Greece will begin printing out New Drachmas to keep the economy breathing, bringing the country down to its knees in front of the Eurogroup, and all those who voted OXI will have no one to blame but themselves.


Sources?

Source for what? Are you unaware that the bailout package was cancelled? I haven't made any claims that would require any sources, since I'm just reading BBC News back to you.

The problem in these EU packages is that it fails to create jobs, it drives people homeless and it eats away the last bits of money the remaining people have.

This, however, necessitates a source. Go read the EU package and tell me what, exactly, is supposed to drive people homeless and eat away at the last bits of their money. Aside from the sales tax change, of course, since that was there specifically to cut the deficit by about a third-- which is useful for reasons other than stimulating economic growth.

The entire reason why the Greek people voted no was becouse of the EU destroying Greece with its packages. A country needs people and it needs jobs. Just imagine if all those people had a job and a house, do you have any idea how much money that would bring in for Greece? Yet the EU, ECB and IMF keep pushing on "reforms" that aren't doing anything good to Greece or its people.

So your solution is what? Give everyone a job and a house? The EU, ECB, and IMF are trying to get Greece to stay in line with its debt repayment schedule and to insulate it from future debt crises by pushing through much-needed reforms. The EU, ECB, and IMF are trying to stimulate investment in the only way they can: not scaring away investors. Because if Greece goes full out and defaults on all loans in the most flagrant way possible, Greece may as well be a nuclear wasteland when it comes to investor attraction.

Meh, i doubt it. There are plenty of reasons to keep the banks standing and there are plenty of alternatives to solve the crisis.

Yes, there are plenty of reasons, but right now the Greek banks are running out of Euros. Once they run out of Euros, either the system collapses or the Greek government starts issuing IOUs-- literally printing their own currency. Without Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) from the ECB, these 'New Drachmas' (the IOUs) will become the only useful currency in Greek daily life. Issuing IOUs is reverting to the drachma by another name.

The Greek government is already looking at the NDB for example.

I'm afraid I don't speak acronym.

Also, there was a time where there was a simular situation in Iceland, and look at them today, they're doing just fine. Its not like this is the end for Greece or anything, even going bankrupt won't be the end and it can be fixed fairly quickly.

Icelandic banks filed for bankruptcy as a result of the global financial crisis in 2008. A situation that is more comparable to Iceland is Northern Rock and RBS in the UK and Lehman Brothers/AIG/other banks in the US that were on the verge of collapse and where some were bailed out by the state. "The Icelandic solution" is only really applicable in 2008 US and UK where those banks were failing. Here we are talking about Greece literally running out of Euros. Applying "the Icelandic solution" here is liking telling me you want to bake a cake with IKEA instructions for a chair. And since Greece is a Eurozone member, the crisis is in fact much bigger than just in Greece itself, and has the potential of being a worldwide crisis, and a continent-wide crisis for sure.
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Postby Qart chadast » Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:31 am

Arkolon wrote:
Qart chadast wrote:
Sources?

Source for what? Are you unaware that the bailout package was cancelled? I haven't made any claims that would require any sources, since I'm just reading BBC News back to you.

The problem in these EU packages is that it fails to create jobs, it drives people homeless and it eats away the last bits of money the remaining people have.

This, however, necessitates a source. Go read the EU package and tell me what, exactly, is supposed to drive people homeless and eat away at the last bits of their money. Aside from the sales tax change, of course, since that was there specifically to cut the deficit by about a third-- which is useful for reasons other than stimulating economic growth.

The entire reason why the Greek people voted no was becouse of the EU destroying Greece with its packages. A country needs people and it needs jobs. Just imagine if all those people had a job and a house, do you have any idea how much money that would bring in for Greece? Yet the EU, ECB and IMF keep pushing on "reforms" that aren't doing anything good to Greece or its people.

So your solution is what? Give everyone a job and a house? The EU, ECB, and IMF are trying to get Greece to stay in line with its debt repayment schedule and to insulate it from future debt crises by pushing through much-needed reforms. The EU, ECB, and IMF are trying to stimulate investment in the only way they can: not scaring away investors. Because if Greece goes full out and defaults on all loans in the most flagrant way possible, Greece may as well be a nuclear wasteland when it comes to investor attraction.

Meh, i doubt it. There are plenty of reasons to keep the banks standing and there are plenty of alternatives to solve the crisis.

Yes, there are plenty of reasons, but right now the Greek banks are running out of Euros. Once they run out of Euros, either the system collapses or the Greek government starts issuing IOUs-- literally printing their own currency. Without Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) from the ECB, these 'New Drachmas' (the IOUs) will become the only useful currency in Greek daily life. Issuing IOUs is reverting to the drachma by another name.

The Greek government is already looking at the NDB for example.

I'm afraid I don't speak acronym.

Also, there was a time where there was a simular situation in Iceland, and look at them today, they're doing just fine. Its not like this is the end for Greece or anything, even going bankrupt won't be the end and it can be fixed fairly quickly.

Icelandic banks filed for bankruptcy as a result of the global financial crisis in 2008. A situation that is more comparable to Iceland is Northern Rock and RBS in the UK and Lehman Brothers/AIG/other banks in the US that were on the verge of collapse and where some were bailed out by the state. "The Icelandic solution" is only really applicable in 2008 US and UK where those banks were failing. Here we are talking about Greece literally running out of Euros. Applying "the Icelandic solution" here is liking telling me you want to bake a cake with IKEA instructions for a chair. And since Greece is a Eurozone member, the crisis is in fact much bigger than just in Greece itself, and has the potential of being a worldwide crisis, and a continent-wide crisis for sure.


1) A source for your claim that Greece is making money. And to clarify, when i said making money, i mean making "profit" to repay its debt.

2) I'm not talking about the current package, i'm talking in general. Most of these packaages, especially those back in the early days caused massive unemployment and it still stands above 25% at this point. Same goes for those owning a home.

3) Not a solution to everything, but it sure would bring in alot of money through taxes. The EU, ECB and IMF are largly to blame for the unemployment and homeless rates in Greece today, not fully but largly. Also partly true, they want to attract investors but they fail drasticly at that job to be honest.
Greece won't be lost. If Greece would go bankrupt its more then likely China and Russia will take advantage of it and start investing in the country, though it remains to be seen on what levels they will invest.

4) Honestly, wether they use the Euro's or their own currency is not really my concern. But we'll see what happens, i believe either today or tomorrow they had talks with the ECB at least. The main concern remains that once the banks collapse, not only Greece has a serious problem (if the NDB doesn't feel like helping out) but Cyprus aswell i believe. But again, we'll find out how things roll on that part in the coming two/three days.

5) The New Development Bank, set up by the BRICS nations. They could possibly involve themselves in Greece, though it probably won't happen aslong as Greece is still in negotiations with the IMF. Its also a matter of question on how far the NDB has the capability of helping Greece since its a relative new thing.

6) Fair enough, its not exactly the same, but i'm just trying to point out that even if things turn south, it doesn't mean the end. It just depends on the way they try to restore themselves. And true, the crisis in Greece will affect alot of nations, especially those who use the Euro, that's why its important that the EU, ECB and IMF start listening to the Greek people. Not like they should just write off all debt and such, but there's no doubt they'll have to give in at some matters.
Also i'd really like to try to bake a cake with IKEA instructions for a chair, interesting to see what would become of it :P

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Cormo
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Postby Cormo » Mon Jul 06, 2015 9:24 am

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Postby Liberty and Linguistics » Mon Jul 06, 2015 9:29 am

Kelinfort wrote:Greece controls their own destiny now. Short of a new agreement with a debt writedown or debt forgiveness, Greece should exit the Eurozone. It will be the only way to have some hope of a better future.


I'd agree, provided that SYRIZA wasn't in power. Sure, Greece now has more fiscal autonomy and monetary autonomy, which can aid them in reform packages and whatnot. The Eurozone, after all, cockblocked any reasonable attempts at reform.

However, SYRIZA, by all definitions, is an old school keynesian, democratic socialist, and vaguely anti capitalist party. As such, they do have a platform which includes some radical ideas. Radical ideas that would push Greece past the brink in which it currently stands.
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Pollona
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Postby Pollona » Mon Jul 06, 2015 9:43 am

Qart chadast wrote:3) Not a solution to everything, but it sure would bring in alot of money through taxes. The EU, ECB and IMF are largly to blame for the unemployment and homeless rates in Greece today, not fully but largly. Also partly true, they want to attract investors but they fail drasticly at that job to be honest.
Greece won't be lost. If Greece would go bankrupt its more then likely China and Russia will take advantage of it and start investing in the country, though it remains to be seen on what levels they will invest.


Unfortunately Greece is not in a position to engage in large scale fiscal stimulus. The debt burden is simply too massive for any investor to take such a project seriously. The only other realistic options to jump start the economy are non-austerity measures (i.e. things that don't fiddle with taxes or spending) like structural market reforms. It would make Greece more competitive and encourage private sector investment given a healthier business climate.

I think here you are overstating the likelihood that Russia and/or China would want to get heavily involved. Russia is currently dealing with a quite nasty recession and China is coping with a wobbling stock market and slower growth. They have their own economic problems to handle right now.

Qart chadast wrote:5) The New Development Bank, set up by the BRICS nations. They could possibly involve themselves in Greece, though it probably won't happen aslong as Greece is still in negotiations with the IMF. Its also a matter of question on how far the NDB has the capability of helping Greece since its a relative new thing.


It only has capital investments of $100 Billion with the possibility of approximately $50 Billion available for an initial fund. The NDB would essentially be spending all of it's starting capital on bailing out Greece. While the offer sounds nice, it's as usual just another Russian conjuring trick. There's nothing in it for Brazil, India, or South Africa; they have nothing to gain by spending all of their development money on Greek debt payments.

Qart chadast wrote:6) Fair enough, its not exactly the same, but i'm just trying to point out that even if things turn south, it doesn't mean the end. It just depends on the way they try to restore themselves. And true, the crisis in Greece will affect alot of nations, especially those who use the Euro, that's why its important that the EU, ECB and IMF start listening to the Greek people. Not like they should just write off all debt and such, but there's no doubt they'll have to give in at some matters.


A Grexit would definitely be uncharted territory, and who knows what the knock off effects would be? The issue is that there are still hard-liners who do not want to let Greece off the hook for the debts they owe. It all goes back to the moral hazard problem: if you renegotiate and restructure debt agreements, who is to say others will not want the same. Why have any reforms at all then? That's the problem the Northern Eurozone is grappling with. They (quite reasonably) believe that if they mishandle the situation, there will simply be a new round of bailouts in 5-10 years.

So it's a game of convincing both sides that they have something to get out of a deal. At this point, I'd give it an even chance for a third bailout compromise to emerge, or a Grexit. We will have to see what Athens intends to propose to the Troika.
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Postby Teemant » Mon Jul 06, 2015 9:48 am

Minoa wrote:
Qart chadast wrote:
Well you still have Merkel and Dijselbloem.

But how would Syriza find another tough guy so that they don't have to even think about capitulating? It pays to have a Plan B if the referendum doesn't scare the Eurogroup.


Why should Eurogroup be afraid in the first place?
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Postby Geilinor » Mon Jul 06, 2015 9:53 am


His position is reasonable, Ireland took the bailout program it was offered and is doing much better than Greece.
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Postby Geilinor » Mon Jul 06, 2015 10:19 am

Varoufakis' departure was a little dramatic, it seems. :p http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33413569
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Postby Teemant » Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:03 pm

ECB didn't give more liquidity to Greece banks so banks won't be open on tuesday I guess. Will they (banks) ever open again?
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Postby Geilinor » Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:05 pm

Teemant wrote:ECB didn't give more liquidity to Greece banks so banks won't be open on tuesday I guess. Will they (banks) ever open again?

Tsipras says that the banks will only be reopened after a deal is made with the Eurogroup. That could be days or weeks.
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Postby Teemant » Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:11 pm

Geilinor wrote:
Teemant wrote:ECB didn't give more liquidity to Greece banks so banks won't be open on tuesday I guess. Will they (banks) ever open again?

Tsipras says that the banks will only be reopened after a deal is made with the Eurogroup. That could be days or weeks.


Or never. It seems that Eurogroup isn't so eager to make a deal anymore especially considering that in countries which make Eurogroup support to help Greece with a new deal has declined greatly over last few weeks. It is important because new program must go through all eurogroup countries parliaments (18 countries).
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Geadland
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Postby Geadland » Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:37 pm

The problem with this referendum, besides the fact it was done with just 8 days' notice, was that voters were only asked half of the question. The voters rejected one of the bailout offers, but what do they actually want? Would they be placated if they were given a more favourable bailout offer? Or does their opposition to bailout-austerity programs outweigh their overwhelming support for the euro? The fundamental dilemma facing Greece is this: should Greece continue down the current path and remain in the Eurozone, or should they leave and default on their debt?

It's a nasty dilemma, but there needs to be a serious debate in Greece on this. Unfortunately, Syriza seem completely convinced that Greece can have the best of both worlds. Alexis Tsipras' negotiating technique is to avoid compromise, assuming that the Troika will compromise on their (rather harsh) demands and go out of their way to prevent the much-feared 'Grexit', even if it means they have to write off debt or pay out cash. It doesn't seem to have occurred to Syriza that the Troika may not want to compromise any more than they do. If Greece is able to obtain free debt write-offs by having Tsipras as their prime minister, what message does that send to countries where Podemos and Marine Le Pen have been growing in popularity?

The Troika should have compromised, back in the days when Greece's pro-EU establishment political parties were in power. It should have been apparent that this mountain of debt is too much for Greece, that the debt needed restructuring and that the country was never going to get its budget balanced by 2018. And the EU should have realised that economic policies that are good for Germany are not necessarily good for the rest of the EU. They should have employed some stimulus spending and implemented quantitative easing earlier. In fact, they never should have let Greece into the Eurozone, but everyone knows that. The fact that Greece elected Syriza to power is a case of chickens coming home to roost.

A Grexit isn't inevitable at this stage, but it is now the most likely outcome.
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Postby The Alma Mater » Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:14 pm

Qart chadast wrote:
The Alma Mater wrote:
Why not ? The Greek people have been ignoring them for decades after all.


No they have not.


Really ? What exactly has Greece done in the past 40 years or so to create a sustainable economy, able to pay its debts ?
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Postby Laerod » Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:33 pm

The Alma Mater wrote:
Qart chadast wrote:
No they have not.


Really ? What exactly has Greece done in the past 40 years or so to create a sustainable economy, able to pay its debts ?

Joined Somalia, Sudan, and Zimbabwe as a country that didn't pay its debts to the IMF? It's a fucking joke that an otherwise stable European country joins two failed states and one constantly wracked by civil war on that list.

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Postby Geilinor » Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:38 pm

The euro outside eurozone option is possible but Greece would end up like Montenegro. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-30/these-are-greeces-5-possible-paths
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Postby Martean » Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:40 pm

Geadland wrote:It's a nasty dilemma, but there needs to be a serious debate in Greece on this. Unfortunately, Syriza seem completely convinced that Greece can have the best of both worlds. Alexis Tsipras' negotiating technique is to avoid compromise, assuming that the Troika will compromise on their (rather harsh) demands and go out of their way to prevent the much-feared 'Grexit', even if it means they have to write off debt or pay out cash. It doesn't seem to have occurred to Syriza that the Troika may not want to compromise any more than they do. If Greece is able to obtain free debt write-offs by having Tsipras as their prime minister, what message does that send to countries where Podemos and Marine Le Pen have been growing in popularity?


I think you've got it just right. The EU is not acting taking only into account economic factors, as it should, but it is rather trying to stop the unstoppable: the possibility that anti-EU (FN), or moderate euroskeptics (Podemos) parties reach power in more countries than the tiny, bankrupt Greece. Because one thing is to cope with one anti-establishment party that accounts only for 2% of the GDP and slightly more than 11 million inhabitants. But if big countries such as Spain, France and Italy dare to vote ''wrongly'' it could mean the end of the EU. And at least one of those three is holding it's general elections this November, just after the local and regional elections on May, which meant a huge political earthquake.

This is why the EU is acting like this with Greece, and not because it's the best thing to do economically. So don't try to find any economic logic for this: this is politics, not economics.
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Postby Qart chadast » Mon Jul 06, 2015 2:39 pm

Pollona wrote:
Qart chadast wrote:3) Not a solution to everything, but it sure would bring in alot of money through taxes. The EU, ECB and IMF are largly to blame for the unemployment and homeless rates in Greece today, not fully but largly. Also partly true, they want to attract investors but they fail drasticly at that job to be honest.
Greece won't be lost. If Greece would go bankrupt its more then likely China and Russia will take advantage of it and start investing in the country, though it remains to be seen on what levels they will invest.


Unfortunately Greece is not in a position to engage in large scale fiscal stimulus. The debt burden is simply too massive for any investor to take such a project seriously. The only other realistic options to jump start the economy are non-austerity measures (i.e. things that don't fiddle with taxes or spending) like structural market reforms. It would make Greece more competitive and encourage private sector investment given a healthier business climate.

I think here you are overstating the likelihood that Russia and/or China would want to get heavily involved. Russia is currently dealing with a quite nasty recession and China is coping with a wobbling stock market and slower growth. They have their own economic problems to handle right now.

Qart chadast wrote:5) The New Development Bank, set up by the BRICS nations. They could possibly involve themselves in Greece, though it probably won't happen aslong as Greece is still in negotiations with the IMF. Its also a matter of question on how far the NDB has the capability of helping Greece since its a relative new thing.


It only has capital investments of $100 Billion with the possibility of approximately $50 Billion available for an initial fund. The NDB would essentially be spending all of it's starting capital on bailing out Greece. While the offer sounds nice, it's as usual just another Russian conjuring trick. There's nothing in it for Brazil, India, or South Africa; they have nothing to gain by spending all of their development money on Greek debt payments.

Qart chadast wrote:6) Fair enough, its not exactly the same, but i'm just trying to point out that even if things turn south, it doesn't mean the end. It just depends on the way they try to restore themselves. And true, the crisis in Greece will affect alot of nations, especially those who use the Euro, that's why its important that the EU, ECB and IMF start listening to the Greek people. Not like they should just write off all debt and such, but there's no doubt they'll have to give in at some matters.


A Grexit would definitely be uncharted territory, and who knows what the knock off effects would be? The issue is that there are still hard-liners who do not want to let Greece off the hook for the debts they owe. It all goes back to the moral hazard problem: if you renegotiate and restructure debt agreements, who is to say others will not want the same. Why have any reforms at all then? That's the problem the Northern Eurozone is grappling with. They (quite reasonably) believe that if they mishandle the situation, there will simply be a new round of bailouts in 5-10 years.

So it's a game of convincing both sides that they have something to get out of a deal. At this point, I'd give it an even chance for a third bailout compromise to emerge, or a Grexit. We will have to see what Athens intends to propose to the Troika.


1) I agree and that's why other nations should step in and help Greece along those lines. Making more people unemployed and homeless isn't going to fix anything and will likely only distance the Greek people further from the Euro and the European Union. Reforms on several sectors would indeed also be a good start, though i'm no expert on the current situation so i won't dare to say on which sectors proper reforms could and should be made.

They won't get into it heavely, true, but there is serious Chinese and Russian interest in several Greec sectors like the infrastructure, more specific Greek harbours. Then theres also the NDB which might help Greece, but that's yet to be seen as Greece hasn't asked for yet and as its a relative new thing so nobody is sure how far they could help Greece.

2) It would honestly be a joke if they just paid off the debts of Greece and leave it at that. Obviously they have their own way of dealing with such matters, but as said earlier, it remains to be seen as little is known about how they would handle these kinds of things.

3) You got a point and yes it more or less is what Northern Europe thinks, but things aren't as easy as that anymore, especially after the Greek No vote. The EU has to give in on some parts, most likely parts that will offer the Greek people a bit of a break to catch a breath. I do doubt others will demand the same as the EU has no simular case to Greece, or at least not as worse as Greece. We should also remember that all countries paid up to Greece, and unlike Northern Europe, Southern Europe does support a small relief for Greece, and they are economicly in a worse situation then the north. While Syriza may have demanded too much relief before the referendum, the north has dealth with them in the wrong way from the start and it has made the north, especially Germany very arrogant towards Greece. The EU completely missed the whole message Greece send when they elected Syriza and thought they could continue the way they did before. If they had understood the message they could have sat around the table and figure something out that would please both parties. The EU now just sat there and demanded the same without any real negotiations, which was just a terrible move of the EU.
I gotta agree on that last part, its pretty much a 50/50 chance and its just a matter of time for us to know what's going to happen from here on.

Teemant wrote:ECB didn't give more liquidity to Greece banks so banks won't be open on tuesday I guess. Will they (banks) ever open again?


I think the banks will still open, though there will probably be a tight limit to what people can get from the bank. The ECB is obvious just going to wait and see what will happen at the coming EU meeting.

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95X
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Founded: Sep 30, 2004
Capitalist Paradise

Postby 95X » Mon Jul 06, 2015 2:50 pm

Martean wrote:This is why the EU is acting like this with Greece, and not because it's the best thing to do economically. So don't try to find any economic logic for this: this is politics, not economics.
I was discussing this exact point with someone the other night. Neither of us would be surprised if the ultimate result is a puppet government controlled not by the people of Greece but its creditors. Or an outright end to Greece's sovereignty.
Nation not my RL views, etc.
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Krumbia
Minister
 
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Founded: Jan 27, 2011
Ex-Nation

Postby Krumbia » Mon Jul 06, 2015 4:02 pm

Having just been updating his Wikipedia article (as you do), I wait with anticipation what Euclid Tsakalotos does in his new role.

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Liberty and Linguistics
Senator
 
Posts: 4565
Founded: Jan 09, 2015
Ex-Nation

Postby Liberty and Linguistics » Mon Jul 06, 2015 4:12 pm

Geadland wrote:The problem with this referendum, besides the fact it was done with just 8 days' notice, was that voters were only asked half of the question. The voters rejected one of the bailout offers, but what do they actually want? Would they be placated if they were given a more favourable bailout offer? Or does their opposition to bailout-austerity programs outweigh their overwhelming support for the euro? The fundamental dilemma facing Greece is this: should Greece continue down the current path and remain in the Eurozone, or should they leave and default on their debt?

It's a nasty dilemma, but there needs to be a serious debate in Greece on this. Unfortunately, Syriza seem completely convinced that Greece can have the best of both worlds. Alexis Tsipras' negotiating technique is to avoid compromise, assuming that the Troika will compromise on their (rather harsh) demands and go out of their way to prevent the much-feared 'Grexit', even if it means they have to write off debt or pay out cash. It doesn't seem to have occurred to Syriza that the Troika may not want to compromise any more than they do. If Greece is able to obtain free debt write-offs by having Tsipras as their prime minister, what message does that send to countries where Podemos and Marine Le Pen have been growing in popularity?

The Troika should have compromised, back in the days when Greece's pro-EU establishment political parties were in power. It should have been apparent that this mountain of debt is too much for Greece, that the debt needed restructuring and that the country was never going to get its budget balanced by 2018. And the EU should have realised that economic policies that are good for Germany are not necessarily good for the rest of the EU. They should have employed some stimulus spending and implemented quantitative easing earlier. In fact, they never should have let Greece into the Eurozone, but everyone knows that. The fact that Greece elected Syriza to power is a case of chickens coming home to roost.

A Grexit isn't inevitable at this stage, but it is now the most likely outcome.


Could Greece have afforded stimulus spending? Frankly, they avoided mass default as a result of austerity. Austerity, for the most part, is a negative as raising both taxes and cutting spending go together like bananas and mayonnaise. After all, if one pays more taxes and receives less services from the government, it's mere rudimentary common sense and math to predict that this said person will be substantially poorer. This isn't just an anectodal hypothetical, it was observed in Greece. Sure, the economy grew under ND and recovered to an extent. But, the living standards of the Greek people have not risen.

Stimulus is not the only other option. An economy, especially an economy on the brink of literal collapse, is not equivalent to a tired human being who needs extra caffeine to "move again." When the government pours money. I'd start here for more information on the flaws of both stimuli and keynesianism..

Greece could take a third, and potentially costly option, that involves radical slashes in government size coupled with modest tax cuts to ease economic and governmental burdens off the backs of the Greek people. It's a long shot, but it sure as hell beats Tspiras' plan to tax the rich at 75%.
I am: Cynic, Depressive, Junior in HS, Arizonan, Sarcastic, Wannabe Psychologist, Lover of Cinema and Rum.


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Borusenfront
Bureaucrat
 
Posts: 60
Founded: Jun 27, 2015
Ex-Nation

Postby Borusenfront » Mon Jul 06, 2015 4:20 pm

Stormwrath wrote:

I disagree on the underlined statement. I'm pretty sure the EU member-states have an opt-out optin, not just the UK and Denmark.


Greco-Roman pantheon or Norse pantheon? :D

Yes because they were among the luckiest to be able to renegotiate an opt-out.

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