Ukraine Megathread: Crimea River Part Deux

[Kubra]

Rushka will not be attacked millitarly. There is a lot of decent people that are waiting to start a democratic revolution, like the one in Georgia and Kyrgistan. The only issue is who will replace Putin. Whether that be Ksenia Sobchak or Navalny, there are to many candidates.

There will be no "revolution" in Russia. This is a wishful prediction.

sure there will be, 2 years from now in the month of october

[Bratislavskaya]

Rushka will not be attacked millitarly. There is a lot of decent people that are waiting to start a democratic revolution, like the one in Georgia and Kyrgistan. The only issue is who will replace Putin. Whether that be Ksenia Sobchak or Navalny, there are to many candidates.

With Putin's all time high approval ratings (89% according to a quick Google Search), I somehow doubt it.

[Dortmundia]

Rushka will not be attacked millitarly. There is a lot of decent people that are waiting to start a democratic revolution, like the one in Georgia and Kyrgistan. The only issue is who will replace Putin. Whether that be Ksenia Sobchak or Navalny, there are to many candidates.

With Putin's all time high approval ratings (89% according to a quick Google Search), I somehow doubt it.

Since he conrols the media it i not hard for him to score so high.

[Dortmundia]

Fair enough, but this didn't stop some from trying (Tartaria, with Kazan, was on the verge of breaking away). And the differences dont neccesarily have to be ethnic: the Ural republics could easily break off, as lets be honest Vladivostok probably would do just fine outside of Moscow's reach.

And yes, we both agree on this. The current situation does need change, dont get me wrong. I just think revolution is the wrong path forward.

Well the mainshitholl in Yugoslavia was started by the Serbian-Kosovo dispute yes, but it is after this point that the Croats, tired of the serbs, attempted to breakoff. We supported this manouever. Everything after that is well.... that was just a disaster for everyone involved

I dont think you quite understand what Im getting at: Yeltsin was incapable of standing up to NATO at this time. He could only watch helplessly as it happened, for if he tried to speak up he woulc have lost "valuable" support in the west.

Tartstan was de facto independent, and guess what the independence movement was lead by a Russian. Also, doubtfull since thoose mentioned places are inhabitated by Russians who are not fond of seceding and loyal to Moscow.

Well, I respect your opinion but I do not agree with your second part.

You did not supported this manuveour until 1992, also the secession of Croatia was caused by Miloševićs anti-beraucratic revolutions.7

Well, that is not even correct. The opinion of the RF was that NATO could spread but not in the former USSR. Russias geostrategic interest was to have buffer zones. With the entrance of the Baltics which was not possible anymore.

[Byzantium Imperial]

Fair enough, but this didn't stop some from trying (Tartaria, with Kazan, was on the verge of breaking away). And the differences dont neccesarily have to be ethnic: the Ural republics could easily break off, as lets be honest Vladivostok probably would do just fine outside of Moscow's reach.

And yes, we both agree on this. The current situation does need change, dont get me wrong. I just think revolution is the wrong path forward.

Well the mainshitholl in Yugoslavia was started by the Serbian-Kosovo dispute yes, but it is after this point that the Croats, tired of the serbs, attempted to breakoff. We supported this manouever. Everything after that is well.... that was just a disaster for everyone involved

I dont think you quite understand what Im getting at: Yeltsin was incapable of standing up to NATO at this time. He could only watch helplessly as it happened, for if he tried to speak up he woulc have lost "valuable" support in the west.

Tartstan was de facto independent, and guess what the independence movement was lead by a Russian. Also, doubtfull since thoose mentioned places are inhabitated by Russians who are not fond of seceding and loyal to Moscow.

Well, I respect your opinion but I do not agree with your second part.

You did not supported this manuveour until 1992, also the secession of Croatia was caused by Miloševićs anti-beraucratic revolutions.7

Well, that is not even correct. The opinion of the RF was that NATO could spread but not in the former USSR. Russias geostrategic interest was to have buffer zones. With the entrance of the Baltics which was not possible anymore.

I suspect I may have made one error: was the baltics part of the first or second nato expansion?

[Dortmundia]

I suspect I may have made one error: was the baltics part of the first or second nato expansion?

Second. They joined in march 2004., 2 months before they joined the EU. Poland and the others joined in 1999.

[Byzantium Imperial]

I suspect I may have made one error: was the baltics part of the first or second nato expansion?

Second. They joined in march 2004., 2 months before they joined the EU. Poland and the others joined in 1999.

Woops, well live and learn

[Bojikami]

Rushka will not be attacked millitarly. There is a lot of decent people that are waiting to start a democratic revolution, like the one in Georgia and Kyrgistan. The only issue is who will replace Putin. Whether that be Ksenia Sobchak or Navalny, there are to many candidates.

...What? No. The idea of Putin being forced out of power are unlikely, and even those who would want to see Putin deposed (Left Front, etc.) will not be instituting the kind of capitalist, centrist democracy you think is likely to rise from this. In addition, Putin being deposed now will not at all solve anything. It will likely make things harder on the Russian people.

[Byzantium Imperial]

Rushka will not be attacked millitarly. There is a lot of decent people that are waiting to start a democratic revolution, like the one in Georgia and Kyrgistan. The only issue is who will replace Putin. Whether that be Ksenia Sobchak or Navalny, there are to many candidates.

...What? No. The idea of Putin being forced out of power are unlikely, and even those who would want to see Putin deposed (Left Front, etc.) will not be instituting the kind of capitalist, centrist democracy you think is likely to rise from this. In addition, Putin being deposed now will not at all solve anything. It will likely make things harder on the Russian people.

Ah, reinforcements have arrived

[Shofercia]

Rushka will not be attacked millitarly. There is a lot of decent people that are waiting to start a democratic revolution, like the one in Georgia and Kyrgistan. The only issue is who will replace Putin. Whether that be Ksenia Sobchak or Navalny, there are to many candidates.

Putin approval rating: http://b-i.forbesimg.com/markadomanis/f ... Rating.png

I guess if you can't win in a fair fight, you coup. Worked wonders for Honduras, we all know that they're a thriv... oh wait, no, they're actually so desperate that they're sending their kids through dangerous paths to serve as janitors in the US. Yeah, that shit won't work in Russia.

Rushka will not be attacked millitarly. There is a lot of decent people that are waiting to start a democratic revolution, like the one in Georgia and Kyrgistan. The only issue is who will replace Putin. Whether that be Ksenia Sobchak or Navalny, there are to many candidates.

Im honestly scared of the possibility of Putin being forced out via revolution. If Russia were to fall into complete chaos, the consequences are almost unimaginable.

Are you scared of Megalon attacking Japan? I'm just asking because both have an equal probability of happening.

Im honestly scared of the possibility of Putin being forced out via revolution. If Russia were to fall into complete chaos, the consequences are almost unimaginable.

If something happens it won't be until 2024, when Putin has promised to step down.

And in 2024 we'll have someone who falls somewhere between Ivanov and Medvedev, policy wise. I know it won't be Serduykov

Im honestly scared of the possibility of Putin being forced out via revolution. If Russia were to fall into complete chaos, the consequences are almost unimaginable.

Please, do not fear monger.

You crack me up.

Nothing especially would happen. Sure there will be some great news coverage, but since the Russians are to fond in a father figure they would love the new leader if he do what they expect to do.

You mean if the leader improves the standard of living of the population, they'll love him? Yeah, that's not limited to just Russians.

Please, do not fear monger. Nothing especially would happen. Sure there will be some great news coverage, but since the Russians are to fond in a father figure they would love the new leader if he do what they expect to do.

Your implying a new strongman comes into power (which wouldnt change a god damn thing mind you). The other alternative is that in the chaos of revolution, republics start breaking off from the federation, including those with large industrial resources or nuclear weapons, and the central government tries to use military force to get them back in.

If you think I'm fearmonger im not, because Russia has a very unfortunate past when it comes to revolutions turning for the worse, and also in the past 20 years has experienced armed seperatism and general anarchy in a state of democratic chaos. Given how centralized Russia has become around Putin, it is a very scary possibility what would happen if Putin left before a proper succession could be arranged.


Also mind you, the most democratic leader in Russian history was Boris Yelstin. He still ordered his tanks to open fire on the Duma, which in most countries is the sign of a sham democracy

Yeltsin wasn't the most democratic leader that Russia had. He stopped being a democratic leader when he shelled the Parliament with tanks. Any claims that he had to democracy after that are just as made up, as Saddam's WMDs, probably by the very same group of people.

If something happens it won't be until 2024, when Putin has promised to step down.

Well, at least he has time to plan a succession then. Thats good

There's already a plan. It's not like he doesn't have experience in this kind of stuff. Read Mark Ames if you're really interested. I don't always agree with his conclusions, but his research is decent.

Your implying a new strongman comes into power (which wouldnt change a god damn thing mind you). The other alternative is that in the chaos of revolution, republics start breaking off from the federation, including those with large industrial resources or nuclear weapons, and the central government tries to use military force to get them back in.

If you think I'm fearmonger im not, because Russia has a very unfortunate past when it comes to revolutions turning for the worse, and also in the past 20 years has experienced armed seperatism and general anarchy in a state of democratic chaos. Given how centralized Russia has become around Putin, it is a very scary possibility what would happen if Putin left before a proper succession could be arranged.


Also mind you, the most democratic leader in Russian history was Boris Yelstin. He still ordered his tanks to open fire on the Duma, which in most countries is the sign of a sham democracy

The only reason why Russia had unfortune with past revolution is that all of them were led by corrupt leader with unhonest plans and second when revolution happened in Russia usually the rest of the world was also not in a good shape.

But now, if such thing happens I am sure Russias neighbour like the EU and China will help her because nobody is in interest to have a sick Russia. Sure there is Chechnya but is a to small area to influence the whole country.

Yes, Boris Yeltsins first term is legitimate. One day when russia democrtise he will be known as a reformed and will be celebrated in whole russia. Also, do you really want to Putin plan his successor, that will mean russia is turning into a monarchy?

If his term was ever legitimate, it most certainly stopped being legitimate when he shelled the Parliament with tanks.

[Shofercia]

Yes, the EU funds projects that are idiotic from an economic perspective. The EU is pushing for austerity and open borders, these aren't great economic minds we're dealing with here. And my source said that it'll almost double, irrespective of the new construction.

The EU has more specialised people on that issue, people who knoe thing better than you and I. Also, Lithuania build a LNG terminal just to avoid russian gas. It pays less for gas than before buying from Gazprom.

Dortmundia, you've been caught using the "Trust My Experts" tactic. Yellow card. Don't do it again. Also, if that's the case with Lithuania, (which I doubt,) that means that Lithuania was overpaying GazProm.

If that were the case, then Russian GDP would've fallen massively by now. That hasn't happened. Why do you continue to argue against the facts with such ferocity, Dortmundia? The whole "hurr durr Rusha Gaz Dependant" myth of idiocy was debunked by the current situation, where the oil price fell dramatically and Russia's economy didn't.

Actually not, because the oil prices have not falled so drastically, and even after some time the prices were just like before. So, it was not enough to bankrupt Russia but is clearly showed that her economy is to dependant.

If you are right, how come that Russia is in recession for a year now, which started at the same time when the oil prices dropped? How comes that Russia still despite the normalisation of oil price cannot recover from the oil shock?

Oil prices didn't fall drastically? Forbes disagrees: http://www.forbes.com/sites/brucemccain ... -collapse/



That's a chart showing oil falling from $110 to $60. That's almost a 50% decline. Russia's economy declined by 1.1 percent. When product A falls by 40%, and product B falls by 1%, we know that product B is not dependent on product A. We, (most NSGers,) know that. You might not, Dortmundia.

You said Eastern European countries, and in Eastern Europe, in quite a few places, Orthodoxy is prevalent, but you seem to be unable to grasp the difference between correlation and causation. If Orthodoxy was such a "vile economic virus" how come did Russia thrive economically, just as Orthodox Faith increased in Russia?

Let us nitpick, shall we. The Orthodox faith in Rushka started to prevail in the early 90s, interestingly in the same time when Yeltsin started to mismanage russia. Also, tell me how come there is no economic successful orthodox country, besides russia (which again its success can thank to oil)?

It's really not nitpicking. You said that an Orthodox country cannot have a successful economy. I pointed out that's bullshit, and showed you factual evidence. You proceeded to call that nitpicking, and regurgitate the oil bullshit that was discredited a while ago. Then again, you actually think that Ksenia Sobchak might come to power in Russia, why not go straight for John McCain?

That's classic fearmongering, especially when your so factless and desperate that you have to bring up Stalin, only to fail to comprehend that we fought against Nazi Germany, which was trying to commit actual genocide against us, and Stalin was an ally. Against Nazis, we would've allied with anyone, even Churchill. Oh wait, we did.

I am not making this up. Russia cannot make any normal election without fraud, it is clear that it is not able to have democracy due to its illiberal mentality. That is normal considering the history of russia. Also, the Russians just love a father figure as president, so that I why I brough up Stalin. But hey he is not the only example, look the Tsars or Putin.

Yes, Russians loved father figures so much that we couped the Csar. Oh wait, that makes no sense.

The Russian people seemed to have agreed that when faced with many bad options, just go with the easy and less bad one



Well, at least he has time to plan a succession then. Thats good

Less, Putin is definitely the less-bad option. Forget the fact that under Putin, Russia has continually isolated itself from the rest of the world, has acted as an agitator with multiple countries, has threatened other countries with missiles and oversaw the largest downturn in Post-Soviet Russia's economy. Sure, Russian Nationalism is at an all-time high, but the Russian Nominal GDP per capita isn't set to rebound to pre-sanction levels until 2019.

If anything, Putin has set Russia down a path of further isolation and animosity with the power players who actually matter. Iran and Syria have proven to be such great allies, amirite?

Largest downturn was under Putin? Really now?

Russia's economy before Putin:



Russia's economy during the Putin/Medvedev Administration:



It's why I love facts, they're just so specific when it comes to fighting all of the anti-Putin horseshit. Speaking of Russian isolation, have you heard that India and Pakistan joined the Russo-Chinese Shanghai Cooperation Organization? Some mighty isolation there. Iran is indeed a great ally to have, why do you think Obama's easing sanctions? For shits and giggles?

[Shofercia]

I really hope there isn't a revolution

that'll only end terribly

There won't be a Revolution.

With Putin's all time high approval ratings (89% according to a quick Google Search), I somehow doubt it.

Since he conrols the media it i not hard for him to score so high.

Right, he totally controls the Internet. Max Barry is his personal slave /sarcasm

Tartstan was de facto independent, and guess what the independence movement was lead by a Russian. Also, doubtfull since thoose mentioned places are inhabitated by Russians who are not fond of seceding and loyal to Moscow.

Perhaps the land of tarts was de facto independent, but Tatarstan most certainly wasn't.

Rushka will not be attacked millitarly. There is a lot of decent people that are waiting to start a democratic revolution, like the one in Georgia and Kyrgistan. The only issue is who will replace Putin. Whether that be Ksenia Sobchak or Navalny, there are to many candidates.

...What? No. The idea of Putin being forced out of power are unlikely, and even those who would want to see Putin deposed (Left Front, etc.) will not be instituting the kind of capitalist, centrist democracy you think is likely to rise from this. In addition, Putin being deposed now will not at all solve anything. It will likely make things harder on the Russian people.

What have you against Navalny and Sobchak? (Aside from almost everything.) So we'll have massive ethnic violence and a massive economic drop, who cares? (Aside from almost everyone.) Those are the leaders chosen by Dortmundia, so he has spoken, and so shan't it be

[Vassenor]

MH17: 'Russian missile system fragments' at crash site

Fragments of a suspected Russian missile system have been found at the site of the flight MH17 crash in east Ukraine, Dutch investigators say.

They say the parts, possibly from a Buk surface-to-air system, are "of particular interest" and could help determine who was involved in the crash.

But they say they have not proved a "causal connection" between the parts and the crash. MH17 crashed in an area held by pro-Russian rebels in July 2014, killing all on board.

[The Krogan]

MH17: 'Russian missile system fragments' at crash site

Fragments of a suspected Russian missile system have been found at the site of the flight MH17 crash in east Ukraine, Dutch investigators say.

They say the parts, possibly from a Buk surface-to-air system, are "of particular interest" and could help determine who was involved in the crash.

But they say they have not proved a "causal connection" between the parts and the crash. MH17 crashed in an area held by pro-Russian rebels in July 2014, killing all on board.

Interesting development.

[Bratislavskaya]

With Putin's all time high approval ratings (89% according to a quick Google Search), I somehow doubt it.

Since he conrols the media it i not hard for him to score so high.

Considering he doesn't control the independent Polling Company that conducted the Poll, it is quite hard.

[Byzantium Imperial]

MH17: 'Russian missile system fragments' at crash site

Fragments of a suspected Russian missile system have been found at the site of the flight MH17 crash in east Ukraine, Dutch investigators say.

They say the parts, possibly from a Buk surface-to-air system, are "of particular interest" and could help determine who was involved in the crash.

But they say they have not proved a "causal connection" between the parts and the crash. MH17 crashed in an area held by pro-Russian rebels in July 2014, killing all on board.

Lets be honest, we all know where the misjles was made anyway. The only debate there ever was who specifically (russian or donbass) shot it

[The Krogan]

MH17: 'Russian missile system fragments' at crash site

Lets be honest, we all know where the misjles was made anyway. The only debate there ever was who specifically (russian or donbass) shot it

Well there are/were the conspiracy's about the Ukrainian air force shooting it down.

[Byzantium Imperial]

Lets be honest, we all know where the misjles was made anyway. The only debate there ever was who specifically (russian or donbass) shot it

Well there are/were the conspiracy's about the Ukrainian air force shooting it down.

Which is technically possible, but the misiles might still very well had been built in Russia anyway

[Bratislavskaya]

MH17: 'Russian missile system fragments' at crash site

Lets be honest, we all know where the misjles was made anyway. The only debate there ever was who specifically (russian or donbass) shot it

The question of where the missiles actually came from is also a question which is important. As in, where they Russian made from Russia to the rebels, or where the Soviet made, from the Ukrainians to the rebels.

[Vassenor]

Lets be honest, we all know where the misjles was made anyway. The only debate there ever was who specifically (russian or donbass) shot it

Well there are/were the conspiracy's about the Ukrainian air force shooting it down.

Despite the fact the airliner was flying a lot higher than the service ceiling of the fighter jet that allegedly shot it down.

[The Krogan]

Well there are/were the conspiracy's about the Ukrainian air force shooting it down.

Despite the fact the airliner was flying a lot higher than the service ceiling of the fighter jet that allegedly shot it down.

Not saying I believe it, it's just I've had CBC comment section posters rage spew it at me more times then I care to count.

[Vassenor]

Despite the fact the airliner was flying a lot higher than the service ceiling of the fighter jet that allegedly shot it down.

Not saying I believe it, it's just I've had CBC comment section posters rage spew it at me more times then I care to count.

I'm not saying you do. I'm just giving my critique of the theories in general.

[The Krogan]

Not saying I believe it, it's just I've had CBC comment section posters rage spew it at me more times then I care to count.

I'm not saying you do. I'm just giving my critique of the theories in general.

Cool stuff.

[Estruia]

Less, Putin is definitely the less-bad option. Forget the fact that under Putin, Russia has continually isolated itself from the rest of the world, has acted as an agitator with multiple countries, has threatened other countries with missiles and oversaw the largest downturn in Post-Soviet Russia's economy. Sure, Russian Nationalism is at an all-time high, but the Russian Nominal GDP per capita isn't set to rebound to pre-sanction levels until 2019.

If anything, Putin has set Russia down a path of further isolation and animosity with the power players who actually matter. Iran and Syria have proven to be such great allies, amirite?

Largest downturn was under Putin? Really now?

Russia's economy before Putin:

(Image)

Russia's economy during the Putin/Medvedev Administration:

(Image)

It's why I love facts, they're just so specific when it comes to fighting all of the anti-Putin horseshit. Speaking of Russian isolation, have you heard that India and Pakistan joined the Russo-Chinese Shanghai Cooperation Organization? Some mighty isolation there. Iran is indeed a great ally to have, why do you think Obama's easing sanctions? For shits and giggles?

Guess what, the Soviet Union wasn't Russia, so Putin DID oversee the largest economic downturn in the Modern Russian State's History. You also keep using the PPP, which is basically useless when comparing GDP per capita. Russia's Nominal GDP per capita has TANKED over the last two years, and isn't set to rebound until 2019 (if it does at all, predictions are unreliable like that.)

As for India and Pakistan joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, they're still observers until 2016. Let's be honest, the only reason they joined was for China. Russia is the annoying little brother in this situation.

[Byzantium Imperial]

You must have short term memory, because last I check Russia was doing far worse in the 90's before Putin cane around. 2015 is nothing compared to 1995