Turkey Votes 2015(Parliamentary elections)

[Purger]

Whole of Greece and many parts of the Balkans is historically turkish, so Turks had not a say when thoose territoris were removed from them.

Historically Ottoman, you mean. In other words, imperialism.

They got all that places fair and sqaure. Also, it would be better for Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria to join Turkey for economic purpose.

[New Werpland]

Whole of Greece and many parts of the Balkans is historically turkish, so Turks had not a say when thoose territoris were removed from them.

Historically Ottoman, you mean. In other words, imperialism.

Well to be fair their used to be many Muslims I Greece, and Greeks in Turkey. They had a population trade in the 20's, and both minorities were sent to their "respective" countries.

[The Mid East Federation]

I am Centre-Right and I even support HDP.

Turkey needs HDP, they need these social reforms. Once it becomes a proper nation balanced with social reform and a more social democratic society than I will start supporting some centre-right in Turkey. But right now Turkey is far too right for me to even support a right wing party. Gotta get some left in it to balance it out.

[Shrillland]

Polls will be opening in a few hours, so if you can vote, go do so!

And here is my (approximate) projection for what the new GNA will look like based on an amalgam of the most recent poll numbers:

AKP: 260
CHP: 164
MHP: 100
HDP: 26

In short, Davatoglu wins, but he won't receive a majority. Meanwhile, the other parties won't be able to agree on forming a coalition, so, as I've said, it will be an AKP minority government that will be lucky to last 15 months. However, one of the polls from ORC seems a little more skewed towards the AKP than the others, so take this with a grain of salt.

[Anollasia]

If you don't mind me asking kind sir, are you more against communism or islamism? Because that is essentialy the choice in Turkey right now.

I do not see these elections as a choice between communism and islamism. the AKP is hardly islamist.

If you want communism, vote for the Communist Party of Turkey. CHP is nowhere near communist.

And sure, AKP isn't Islamist at all. They may spend most of their budget on religion, build mosques everywhere, but they're not Islamist at all. They're obviously more secular than CHP. /sarcasm

Polls will be opening in a few hours, so if you can vote, go do so!

And here is my (approximate) projection for what the new GNA will look like based on an amalgam of the most recent poll numbers:

AKP: 260
CHP: 164
MHP: 100
HDP: 26

In short, Davatoglu wins, but he won't receive a majority. Meanwhile, the other parties won't be able to agree on forming a coalition, so, as I've said, it will be an AKP minority government that will be lucky to last 15 months. However, one of the polls from ORC seems a little more skewed towards the AKP than the others, so take this with a grain of salt.

It would be pretty good if the results of this thread's poll were the actual results.

[Shrillland]

I do not see these elections as a choice between communism and islamism. the AKP is hardly islamist.

If you want communism, vote for the Communist Party of Turkey. CHP is nowhere near communist.

And sure, AKP isn't Islamist at all. They may spend most of their budget on religion, build mosques everywhere, but they're not Islamist at all. They're obviously more secular than CHP. /sarcasm

Polls will be opening in a few hours, so if you can vote, go do so!

And here is my (approximate) projection for what the new GNA will look like based on an amalgam of the most recent poll numbers:

AKP: 260
CHP: 164
MHP: 100
HDP: 26

In short, Davatoglu wins, but he won't receive a majority. Meanwhile, the other parties won't be able to agree on forming a coalition, so, as I've said, it will be an AKP minority government that will be lucky to last 15 months. However, one of the polls from ORC seems a little more skewed towards the AKP than the others, so take this with a grain of salt.

It would be pretty good if the results of this thread's poll were the actual results.

As I said though, ORC's poll was skewed towards the AKP. Remove it, and they could actually only get an average of 237 seats with the other parties splitting the balance between them.

[Anollasia]

I was talking about this thread's poll.

[Geilinor]

Polls will be opening in a few hours, so if you can vote, go do so!

And here is my (approximate) projection for what the new GNA will look like based on an amalgam of the most recent poll numbers:

AKP: 260
CHP: 164
MHP: 100
HDP: 26

In short, Davatoglu wins, but he won't receive a majority. Meanwhile, the other parties won't be able to agree on forming a coalition, so, as I've said, it will be an AKP minority government that will be lucky to last 15 months. However, one of the polls from ORC seems a little more skewed towards the AKP than the others, so take this with a grain of salt.

That's almost double what the MHP has now. That sounds like an overestimate, but I'm no expert and I don't live in Turkey, so I can't really say.

[Shrillland]

Polls will be opening in a few hours, so if you can vote, go do so!

And here is my (approximate) projection for what the new GNA will look like based on an amalgam of the most recent poll numbers:

AKP: 260
CHP: 164
MHP: 100
HDP: 26

In short, Davatoglu wins, but he won't receive a majority. Meanwhile, the other parties won't be able to agree on forming a coalition, so, as I've said, it will be an AKP minority government that will be lucky to last 15 months. However, one of the polls from ORC seems a little more skewed towards the AKP than the others, so take this with a grain of salt.

That's almost double what the MHP has now. That sounds like an overestimate, but I'm no expert and I don't live in Turkey, so I can't really say.

Neither am I, but the MHP is polling at about 16%...and I don't come from a PR country, so I don't know how Turkey divides seats. I just figured 9% of the vote equaled about 55 seats, though I did run out of room when I got to the HDP. As I say so often, I don't pretend to be an expert.

[Baltenstein]

Historically Ottoman, you mean. In other words, imperialism.

They got all that places fair and sqaure. Also, it would be better for Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria to join Turkey for economic purpose.

If by "fair and square" you mean took them over by military conquest - guess what, they also lost them fair and square.

If you are seriously arguing that Macedonia, Greece and Bulgaria should join the Turkish state again, and that MHP is the right party to achieve that - you must be nuts.

[Mefpan]

Historically Ottoman, you mean. In other words, imperialism.

They got all that places fair and sqaure. Also, it would be better for Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria to join Turkey for economic purpose.

The Roman Empire had taken these places over fair and square too. And why stop at uniting just the norhteastern portion of the Mediterranean?

[Vistulange]

Polls have closed as of 17:00 (GMT+2) and the results will be counted. I will update this thread as results come in.

Shrilland, we use the D'Hondt method with a 10% threshold for distributing seats. You can't give parties seats without knowing how many votes each party got in each electoral district, because there is no FPTP system in place. The best simulators we have (in Turkish, naturally) generally take the results of the 2011 general elections as a basis for exactly this reason.

That said, your results are incorrect. Today, the HDP has around 36 seats, having entered as independents. If they cross the threshold with 10%, the least they'll be getting is 40-50 MP's. Reduce the seats in the East and Southeast from the AKP and the ones from the remainder of the country from the CHP.

MHP would not be able to get 100 MP's unless it polled around 20%, which would also necessitate the HDP dropping below the threshold...or the AKP falling so low that a political earthquake happens. It is highly unlikely.

[Purger]

They got all that places fair and sqaure. Also, it would be better for Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria to join Turkey for economic purpose.

If by "fair and square" you mean took them over by military conquest - guess what, they also lost them fair and square.

If you are seriously arguing that Macedonia, Greece and Bulgaria should join the Turkish state again, and that MHP is the right party to achieve that - you must be nuts.

No they did not, Greece got a lot of help from their Anglo-French sponsors when they tried conquer Istanbul, the Ottoman conquest was quite the opposite and conquered Balkans without the help of anybody. The Allies made all the job for the Greeks. Bulgaria on other hand got all their terrirotries fair and square. I am not advocating it should happen since it is impossible now, but just arguing that thoose countries would be better off if they joined Turkey than now.
I am not in favuor of MHP winning the election because they tried to killed the Pope, otherwise they would be a good match for Turkey.

[Vistulange]

If by "fair and square" you mean took them over by military conquest - guess what, they also lost them fair and square.

If you are seriously arguing that Macedonia, Greece and Bulgaria should join the Turkish state again, and that MHP is the right party to achieve that - you must be nuts.

No they did not, Greece got a lot of help from their Anglo-French sponsors when they tried conquer Istanbul, the Ottoman conquest was quite the opposite and conquered Balkans without the help of anybody. The Allies made all the job for the Greeks. Bulgaria on other hand got all their terrirotries fair and square. I am not advocating it should happen since it is impossible now, but just arguing that thoose countries would be better off if they joined Turkey than now.
I am not in favuor of MHP winning the election because they tried to killed the Pope, otherwise they would be a good match for Turkey.

I believe that history is history and that just because "X conquered Y" doesn't mean that Y should get the lands they lost to X. No nation, save a very select few, was established with kisses and hugs. Regardless, this is unrelated to and irrelevant to the 2015 general elections and should be saved for another thread, in my opinion.

As for the MHP...why do you think they are a good match for Turkey? I would like a proper example for this.

Also, as I have said before, while the perpetrator against the Pope did have past affiliation with the MHP and the Grey Wolves, he was revealed to be acting independent of the MHP.

[Purger]

Polls have closed as of 17:00 (GMT+2) and the results will be counted. I will update this thread as results come in.

Shrilland, we use the D'Hondt method with a 10% threshold for distributing seats. You can't give parties seats without knowing how many votes each party got in each electoral district, because there is no FPTP system in place. The best simulators we have (in Turkish, naturally) generally take the results of the 2011 general elections as a basis for exactly this reason.

That said, your results are incorrect. Today, the HDP has around 36 seats, having entered as independents. If they cross the threshold with 10%, the least they'll be getting is 40-50 MP's. Reduce the seats in the East and Southeast from the AKP and the ones from the remainder of the country from the CHP.

MHP would not be able to get 100 MP's unless it polled around 20%, which would also necessitate the HDP dropping below the threshold...or the AKP falling so low that a political earthquake happens. It is highly unlikely.

Could you say how many electoral constituencies are there in Turkey and how many representatives each constituency vote into parliament.

10% threshold is to big for the D'Hondt method since D'Hondt favours larger parties in distribution of seats. It is imposible for smaller parties to get a seat in the turkish parliament.

[Vistulange]

Polls have closed as of 17:00 (GMT+2) and the results will be counted. I will update this thread as results come in.

Shrilland, we use the D'Hondt method with a 10% threshold for distributing seats. You can't give parties seats without knowing how many votes each party got in each electoral district, because there is no FPTP system in place. The best simulators we have (in Turkish, naturally) generally take the results of the 2011 general elections as a basis for exactly this reason.

That said, your results are incorrect. Today, the HDP has around 36 seats, having entered as independents. If they cross the threshold with 10%, the least they'll be getting is 40-50 MP's. Reduce the seats in the East and Southeast from the AKP and the ones from the remainder of the country from the CHP.

MHP would not be able to get 100 MP's unless it polled around 20%, which would also necessitate the HDP dropping below the threshold...or the AKP falling so low that a political earthquake happens. It is highly unlikely.

Could you say how many electoral constituencies are there in Turkey and how many representatives each constituency vote into parliament.

10% threshold is to big for the D'Hondt method since D'Hondt favours larger parties in distribution of seats. It is imposible for smaller parties to get a seat in the turkish parliament.

Eh...there are 87 constituencies, but while İzmir I needs around 120.000 votes for a single MP, Bayburt may only need 10.000 votes due the population difference. Istanbul II, might need 300.000 while Diyarbakır only needs 100.000.

As for the 10% threshold, precisely. Now you're getting the point. That's exactly our grievance. 13 years ago, the AKP came to power promising, among many things, that they would abolish the Council of Higher Education (YÖK) and lower/abolish the threshold. They have done neither in their 13 years of government.

Clarification: The number of votes given for the constituencies are merely examples. They may not reflect the truth.

[Purger]

I believe that history is history and that just because "X conquered Y" doesn't mean that Y should get the lands they lost to X. No nation, save a very select few, was established with kisses and hugs. Regardless, this is unrelated to and irrelevant to the 2015 general elections and should be saved for another thread, in my opinion.

As for the MHP...why do you think they are a good match for Turkey? I would like a proper example for this.

Also, as I have said before, while the perpetrator against the Pope did have past affiliation with the MHP and the Grey Wolves, he was revealed to be acting independent of the MHP.

I find the part of the MHP program where they want to establish better relationship with Central Asian turkic nations very good for Turkey. It is a large country with great culture and great people so such a nation needs to have a place under the Sun again so establish sphere of influences in Central Asia would be a good step toward that. Other parties are unfortunately pro-EU and pro-NATO.

[Vistulange]

I believe that history is history and that just because "X conquered Y" doesn't mean that Y should get the lands they lost to X. No nation, save a very select few, was established with kisses and hugs. Regardless, this is unrelated to and irrelevant to the 2015 general elections and should be saved for another thread, in my opinion.

As for the MHP...why do you think they are a good match for Turkey? I would like a proper example for this.

Also, as I have said before, while the perpetrator against the Pope did have past affiliation with the MHP and the Grey Wolves, he was revealed to be acting independent of the MHP.

I find the part of the MHP program where they want to establish better relationship with Central Asian turkic nations very good for Turkey. It is a large country with great culture and great people so such a nation needs to have a place under the Sun again so establish sphere of influences in Central Asia would be a good step toward that. Other parties are unfortunately pro-EU and pro-NATO.

You do not elect parties depending solely on their foreign policy aims. Tell me about the MHP's internal policies, as well.

As for the stated goals: While we may have cultural ties with the Central Asian Turkic nations, they are firmly in Russia's sphere of influence. As a Turk, I believe we need to be firmly oriented towards the West and specifically Europe. There is no path for Turkey but Westernization and democracy. The East and Middle-East have only poverty and authoritarianism for us.

[Rio Cana]

CNN is covering this election. Gloom and doom that is what they seem to be saying, that it will be gloom and doom for Turkey if the current President of Turkeys political party gets a majority and starts changing the constitution. It seems a majority means there is no need for a public referendum when it comes to changing the constitution in Turkey. They say the President could then be given unlimited powers without any check and balances in place. One thing is for sure, the current President of Turkey is a shrewd politician. He knows how to play the game of politics and get his way. Having said that, he hates Syrias political party and President but it seems he is going the same way. The difference is that he is part of the so called Western block unlike the Syrian President who is part of the Russian block.

[Vistulange]

CNN is covering this election. Gloom and doom that is what they seem to be saying, that it will be gloom and doom for Turkey if the current President of Turkeys political party gets a majority and starts changing the constitution. It seems a majority means there is no need for a public referendum when it comes to changing the constitution in Turkey. They say the President could then be given unlimited powers without any check and balances in place. One thing is for sure, the current President of Turkey is a shrewd politician. He knows how to play the game of politics and get his way. Having said that, he hates Syrias political party and President but it seems he is going the same way. The difference is that he is part of the so called Western block unlike the Syrian President who is part of the Russian block.

You need at least 367 out of 550 seats to pass a constitutional change without a referendum. 330 seats are necessary to bring proposed constitutional changes to referandum and 276 to form a government.

As for President Erdoğan, think of him and Prime Minister Davutoğlu as Turkey's own Putin-Medvedev agreement. Simple as that.

[Vistulange]

Vehicles without license plates have been spotted throughout Istanbul. Police have finished an investigation and have come to the conclusion that 8 are owned by civilians and the remainder by police. The CHP and MHP have warned ballot clerks to not let the cars accompany them while escorting votes.

Percentage of ballot boxes opened is 34% from the Anadolu Agency while it is 18% from the Cihan News Agency.

[Purger]

Eh...there are 87 constituencies, but while İzmir I needs around 120.000 votes for a single MP, Bayburt may only need 10.000 votes due the population difference. Istanbul II, might need 300.000 while Diyarbakır only needs 100.000.

Interesting. This seems a good example of malapportionment. Since I love study electoral systems this would be also an interesting case to examine. Malapportionment is a type of electoral manipulation where one seat needs drastically lover votes for a party to win than in another.

As for the 10% threshold, precisely. Now you're getting the point. That's exactly our grievance. 13 years ago, the AKP came to power promising, among many things, that they would abolish the Council of Higher Education (YÖK) and lower/abolish the threshold. They have done neither in their 13 years of government.

Clarification: The number of votes given for the constituencies are merely examples. They may not reflect the truth.

What is this Council actually?

I do not want to seem to defending Erdogan but it seems he is not the one who established this high threshold, and it is also not in interests of other larger parties represened in the parliament to have concurents.

D`Hondt is popular in most countries for a good reason, this reason is because all major parties in all countries in the world have the interest of smaller parties to not get into the parliament since it would damage their seats. From such perspective Turkey is not the one who has such greviance. I am postivly sure CHP, MHP and even the Kurds love that this system remains

I would recomment Turkey beside to lower the threshold also to adopt the Sainte-Laguë method because unlike D`Hondt method it is biased to smaller parties.

You do not elect parties depending solely on their foreign policy aims. Tell me about the MHP's internal policies, as well.

Ok this is true but I doubt MHP is worser than AKP. MHP at least wants that Turkey remains secular.

As for the stated goals: While we may have cultural ties with the Central Asian Turkic nations, they are firmly in Russia's sphere of influence. As a Turk, I believe we need to be firmly oriented towards the West and specifically Europe. There is no path for Turkey but Westernization and democracy. The East and Middle-East have only poverty and authoritarianism for us.

Central Asia has nothing much in common with the Middle East despite being mostly muslim. Central Asians have a different cultural path than the Middle East and Central Asia is secular which fits to Turkey. Also, you seem to not know that Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are rich nations due to oil and gas, so if Turkey has starts to tutoring them it would be benefical for Turkey as well for them. Turkey will send them democracy while Central Asia will send Turkey cheap oil and gas.

Also, liberating them from the Russian sphere of influence will be also a good advantage. Turkic nations are you brothers. You are the same people and have the same language. Wasn`t there a movement in the 90s to unite Turkey and Azerbaijan? What happened with this idea?

Democratisation sure but westernisation is not necesarly good. Democracy does not need to fits western standards and the West is in crisis. Tell me why should Turkey sell its souveregnity and freedom to some European Union?

Turkey is better than that. It does not need some Brussel beraucrats to make your laws.

[Vistulange]

Eh...there are 87 constituencies, but while İzmir I needs around 120.000 votes for a single MP, Bayburt may only need 10.000 votes due the population difference. Istanbul II, might need 300.000 while Diyarbakır only needs 100.000.

Interesting. This seems a good example of malapportionment. Since I love study electoral systems this would be also an interesting case to examine. Malapportionment is a type of electoral manipulation where one seat needs drastically lover votes for a party to win than in another.

Indeed.

What is this Council actually?

The Council of Higher Education regulates the universities, basically. On paper, they recommend rectors for universities and the President appoints them. They also define the cirriculum of the universities.

I do not want to seem to defending Erdogan but it seems he is not the one who established this high threshold, and it is also not in interests of other larger parties represened in the parliament to have concurents.

No, the threshold was established by the 12 September 1980 coup d'etat in order to provide stability. The AKP, however, promised to end it, and have not. They are as good as the ones who established it exactly for this reason.

D`Hondt is popular in most countries for a good reason, this reason is because all major parties in all countries in the world have the interest of smaller parties to not get into the parliament since it would damage their seats. From such perspective Turkey is not the one who has such greviance. I am postivly sure CHP, MHP and even the Kurds love that this system remains

Maybe, but it is not the thing we want for our democracy.

I would recomment Turkey beside to lower the threshold also to adopt the Sainte-Laguë method because unlike D`Hondt method it is biased to smaller parties.

Or just use Germany's system.

Ok this is true but I doubt MHP is worser than AKP. MHP at least wants that Turkey remains secular.

That, I can get behind. That's the only thing they're better at.

Central Asia has nothing much in common with the Middle East despite being mostly muslim. Central Asians have a different cultural path than the Middle East and Central Asia is secular which fits to Turkey. Also, you seem to not know that Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are rich nations due to oil and gas, so if Turkey has starts to tutoring them it would be benefical for Turkey as well for them. Turkey will send them democracy while Central Asia will send Turkey cheap oil and gas.

They may be rich, but they are still in the Russian sphere of influence. Also, send them democracy? Democracy isn't something you export, unless you are the United States, even then, the goods may turn out to be faulty. Especially if you believe they will sell oil and gas to us at cheap prices - would you want to threaten the monopoly the local strongmen of the relevant countries have established over their politics, while they are giving you fuel for cheap, or would you continue to support the men who give you what you want for less?

Also, liberating them from the Russian sphere of influence will be also a good advantage. Turkic nations are you brothers. You are the same people and have the same language. Wasn`t there a movement in the 90s to unite Turkey and Azerbaijan? What happened with this idea?

I am not aware of such a movement. We may be culturally close, like I said, I am not aware of such a movement. And why are we brothers? Solely because we descend from Central Asia? I think we've moved beyond such medieval terms of 'brotherhood' and the like.

Democratisation sure but westernisation is not necesarly good. Democracy does not need to fits western standards and the West is in crisis. Tell me why should Turkey sell its souveregnity and freedom to some European Union?

Turkey is better than that. It does not need some Brussel beraucrats to make your laws.

The West is in crisis? Source, please, for that claim.

Also, "Westernisation" and "integrating with the West" does not necessarily mean joining the European Union. While I believe in the European Union project and would like Turkey to enter it at some point in the future, by "Westernisation" I mean a Western standard of prosperity, freedom and justice, among many other things.

[Great Anatolia]

Unfortunately,
Same Shit Different Day

[Vistulange]

Unfortunately,
Same Shit Different Day

Source?

The High Electoral Council hasn't lifted the press ban on results. We have no official results at hand.