Are leftists becoming a minority?

[Romalae]

http://www.gallup.com/video/181361/gall ... stent.aspx

(Image)

Thanks!

No problem. Pew Research and Gallup usually have the best polling/survey information, in my view.

[Imperial Esplanade]

But what is the evidence that they are more "left-wing?"

That's actually pretty misleading. Even though most youth are currently trending progressively, they actually prefer to be independent of the progressive-conservative dichotomy. Also, they're historically bad low-information voters. As this generation matures and becomes more engaged in society, our collective political alignment may very well change.

http://dailyorange.com/2014/11/rasamny- ... formation/

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/03/ ... adulthood/

As a millennial myself, I can attest to the fact that most in my generation have absolutely no clue what Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, or any other 2016 candidate (whether potential or current) endorses or opposes, just that Obama seemed like a pretty hip guy. Also, the overwhelming majority of us millennials generally have little to no interest in even voting in the first place... at least for now. The point is, you're assuming that millenials will remain aligned progressively, despite not being all that much aware of our political culture, the political process, and even the political candidates. They're also at an age where their political ideology is far from being solidified, and where the Democrats could possibly be on the retreat again in 2016.

[Imperial Esplanade]

Case in point:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/3 ... 76732.html

[Romalae]

That's actually pretty misleading. Even though most youth are currently trending progressively, they actually prefer to be independent of the progressive-conservative dichotomy.

No, they prefer to be Independent of the Republican-Democrat dichotomy. From the Pew study you linked, "Pew Research Center surveys show that half of Millennials (50%) now describe themselves as political independents ... At the same time, however, Millennials stand out for voting heavily Democratic and for liberal views on many political and social issues, ranging from a belief in an activist government to support for same-sex marriage and marijuana legalization." So Millennials tend to have more liberal views, but identify politically as Independents.

Also, they're historically bad low-information voters. As this generation matures and becomes more engaged in society, our collective political alignment may very well change.

That does not mean it will turn around completely. It seems unlikely that Millennials will by and large abandon their socially progressive views on issues like gay marriage or religiosity.

[Yumyumsuppertime]

If anything, despite the billions of dollars that the Kochs threw at astroturfing various right-wing factions, I suspect that the movement has peaked, and we're likely on a road back to moderation.

[Imperial Esplanade]

No, they prefer to be Independent of the Republican-Democrat dichotomy. From the Pew study you linked, "Pew Research Center surveys show that half of Millennials (50%) now describe themselves as political independents ... At the same time, however, Millennials stand out for voting heavily Democratic and for liberal views on many political and social issues, ranging from a belief in an activist government to support for same-sex marriage and marijuana legalization." So Millennials tend to have more liberal views, but identify politically as Independents.

You completely missed the point. The overwhelming majority of millennials, albeit currently aligning themselves with leftist politics, don't really know much of anything of anything when it comes to political issues. In fact, they stay away from them. The second post, I left a link of a Harvard study (hardly a conservative college by any stretch) and they found of the millenials who ACTUALLY voted in the midterms, they trended just as conservatively as the rest of Americans. It's that second demographic that is more important, and it goes to show that politically active millenials generally do not follow that paradigm.

That does not mean it will turn around completely. It seems unlikely that Millennials will by and large abandon their socially progressive views on issues like gay marriage or religiosity.

You do realize that there's more to it than just gay marriage and religion? If we're going strictly off of social issues, Millennials are also the most pro-life of any previous American generation... and pro-life millennials hold the abortion issue as a much more important political issue too.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... /?page=all

This, combined with my previous point, shows that actually that may very well happen. The more politically active (and presumptively knowledgeable) millennials are, the more they actually trend conservatively.

[Hippie Utopia]

I don't think the left is in any kind of trouble... most of the world is becoming more socially left, and the welfare state is facing no serious challenge. America, for example, is becoming more accepting of homosexuals and marijuana, and for all the talk by Republicans of free markets, are not as strongly pro-capitalism as their rhetoric would imply. Hillary Clinton is still the front runner for president despite a number of controversies, and the Republican Party is struggling to remain relevant in the face of societal changes. As far as Obama's popularity goes, Bush's tanked in his second term as well... so it doesn't necessarily imply that the left is doomed, especially given the other evidence.

[Shaggai]

Fascism is a reactionary movement which eschews facts for a mythologizing narrative. Just because they're factually wrong doesn't mean that their ideology isn't reactionary.

Left and right are abstractions for fairly loose political coalitions. It's certainly not any sort of underlying principle. However, the coalitions are certainly things that exist in the world today, and it's useful to have words for them.

I don't mean to butt in, and I haven't read through your conversation, but fascism most definitely wasn't a reactionary ideology. For its time, it was quite the opposite. You should read into national syndicalism and the Third Position if you don't believe me.

Fascism views itself, within the ideology, as a return to past greatness. It's not in accordance with other reactionary ideologies, because it's founded on a mythologizing narrative rather than the actual facts of the past, but it is reactionary within its own context.

[Prussia-Steinbach]

I feel like the right wing is simply becoming more vocal and active. I think the left is actually growing, bit by bit. The American push for drug decriminalization and marriage equality is indicative of this.

[Norstal]

I feel like the right wing is simply becoming more vocal and active. I think the left is actually growing, bit by bit. The American push for drug decriminalization and marriage equality is indicative of this.

The U.S is just becoming more libertarian. Look at the cuts to welfare and treatment of the homeless. That's not necessarily more left-wing.

[Prussia-Steinbach]

I feel like the right wing is simply becoming more vocal and active. I think the left is actually growing, bit by bit. The American push for drug decriminalization and marriage equality is indicative of this.

The U.S is just becoming more libertarian. Look at the cuts to welfare and treatment of the homeless. That's not necessarily more left-wing.

That's... probably true. Well fuck. Good coming in with the bad. Need to get out there and spread some discontent.

[Pandeeria]

I feel like the right wing is simply becoming more vocal and active. I think the left is actually growing, bit by bit. The American push for drug decriminalization and marriage equality is indicative of this.

Generally, as a group becomes more and more irrelevant, they tend to become more and more vocal in a desperate attempt to keep being heard.

The right-wing is simply in decline, at least in comparison to how right-wing the US use to be. It's nice, our country is finally starting to go down the natural path of liberalization that Western Europe and Canada have already experienced. It will be a while, but we'll get there eventually.

[Willamette Valley]

You completely missed the point. The overwhelming majority of millennials, albeit currently aligning themselves with leftist politics, don't really know much of anything of anything when it comes to political issues. In fact, they stay away from them. The second post, I left a link of a Harvard study (hardly a conservative college by any stretch) and they found of the millenials who ACTUALLY voted in the midterms, they trended just as conservatively as the rest of Americans. It's that second demographic that is more important, and it goes to show that politically active millenials generally do not follow that paradigm.

The slice of the electorate that votes in midterms tends to be more conservative than that which votes in presidential election years in general

[Tahar Joblis]

There are currently three factors to keep in mind.

First, conservatives are out-reproducing liberals, and political views are to a large degree inherited. The right-wing's opposition to birth control, abortion, etc is paying off in the long run, to some degree.

Second, young "conservatives" of the present are not in all ways the same as old "conservatives" of the past. The status quo has changed, and you can see a shift in generational attitudes and party stances, correspondingly. It is very difficult, for example, to find a modern "conservative" of the day explicitly endorsing racism, and such things as miscegnation laws. Mainstream conservatives insist that liberals are the racist ones, mainstream liberals insist that conservatives are the racist ones, and the end of the story is that almost everyone agrees with yesterday's liberals who denounced racism as a bad thing.

Third, there's a lot of in-fighting going on over in the left wing. I know, I feel like I'm in the trenches of it when I debate here on NSG, often enough.

[Imperial Esplanade]

You completely missed the point. The overwhelming majority of millennials, albeit currently aligning themselves with leftist politics, don't really know much of anything of anything when it comes to political issues. In fact, they stay away from them. The second post, I left a link of a Harvard study (hardly a conservative college by any stretch) and they found of the millenials who ACTUALLY voted in the midterms, they trended just as conservatively as the rest of Americans. It's that second demographic that is more important, and it goes to show that politically active millenials generally do not follow that paradigm.

The slice of the electorate that votes in midterms tends to be more conservative than that which votes in presidential election years in general

That's a hilarious oversimplification.

Instead of simply saying 'that's because it's the midterms,' maybe you ought to understand a bit more further as to why the midterms tend to be more 'conservative' - a more dedicated, informed voting base across the nation tends to show up. What should be more alarming is that the fact most millennials who DO show up are actually just as 'conservative' as the rest of America, that goes to show that the whole 'millennials are ultra progressives' we keep hearing about is a heap of nonsense... it's the (for the lack of the better term) 'politically stupid' millennials who are ultra liberal.

Yet another case in point, especially at the bottom.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc ... ys/374427/

Collectively, we support the idea of socialism simply because 'it sounds nice.' Yet, when asked to define it, millennials have absolutely no clue what it is or its' history.

[Sociobiology]

The slice of the electorate that votes in midterms tends to be more conservative than that which votes in presidential election years in general

That's a hilarious oversimplification.

Instead of simply saying 'that's because it's the midterms,' maybe you ought to understand a bit more further as to why the midterms tend to be more 'conservative' - a more dedicated, informed voting base across the nation tends to show up. What should be more alarming is that the fact most millennials who DO show up are actually just as 'conservative' as the rest of America, that goes to show that the whole 'millennials are ultra progressives' we keep hearing about is a heap of nonsense... it's the (for the lack of the better term) 'politically stupid' millennials who are ultra liberal.

Yet another case in point, especially at the bottom.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc ... ys/374427/

Collectively, we support the idea of socialism simply because 'it sounds nice.' Yet, when asked to define it, millennials have absolutely no clue what it is or its' history.

the same could be said for Christianity, Capitalism, Organic Food, and any number of any other this people support. the older generation has been complaining about the younger generation being less informed since the time of Aristotle, and probably longer.

[Pope Joan]

What evidence is there that leftists have ever been a majority, in the West?

[Imperial Esplanade]

That's a hilarious oversimplification.

Instead of simply saying 'that's because it's the midterms,' maybe you ought to understand a bit more further as to why the midterms tend to be more 'conservative' - a more dedicated, informed voting base across the nation tends to show up. What should be more alarming is that the fact most millennials who DO show up are actually just as 'conservative' as the rest of America, that goes to show that the whole 'millennials are ultra progressives' we keep hearing about is a heap of nonsense... it's the (for the lack of the better term) 'politically stupid' millennials who are ultra liberal.

Yet another case in point, especially at the bottom.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc ... ys/374427/

Collectively, we support the idea of socialism simply because 'it sounds nice.' Yet, when asked to define it, millennials have absolutely no clue what it is or its' history.

the same could be said for Christianity, Capitalism, Organic Food, and any number of any other this people support. the older generation has been complaining about the younger generation being less informed since the time of Aristotle, and probably longer.

............

Late-comer is late, injecting nonsensical, irrelevant commentary.

[Tahar Joblis]

What evidence is there that leftists have ever been a majority, in the West?

"In the West" is a pretty poor generalization. The United States has been generally center-right for most of the last century, for example, but the Scandinavian countries have not been center-right for most of the last century. Does "the West" include Eastern Europe or Yugoslavia?

And how narrowly are we defining "leftist"? Because if we're not talking about being specifically socialist and simply being on the left, I'll point to the president with the single most dramatic achievements in terms of moving public policy in a progressive direction, i.e., the president most clearly "on the left."

[Prussia-Steinbach]

What evidence is there that leftists have ever been a majority, in the West?

I think what he's really trying to ask is, is the right becoming stronger as the left decreases in number?

[Shaggai]

There are currently three factors to keep in mind.

First, conservatives are out-reproducing liberals, and political views are to a large degree inherited. The right-wing's opposition to birth control, abortion, etc is paying off in the long run, to some degree.

Second, young "conservatives" of the present are not in all ways the same as old "conservatives" of the past. The status quo has changed, and you can see a shift in generational attitudes and party stances, correspondingly. It is very difficult, for example, to find a modern "conservative" of the day explicitly endorsing racism, and such things as miscegnation laws. Mainstream conservatives insist that liberals are the racist ones, mainstream liberals insist that conservatives are the racist ones, and the end of the story is that almost everyone agrees with yesterday's liberals who denounced racism as a bad thing.

Third, there's a lot of in-fighting going on over in the left wing. I know, I feel like I'm in the trenches of it when I debate here on NSG, often enough.

Conservatives are out-reproducing liberals, but liberals are out-memeing conservatives. If you look at the Quiverfull movement, which is probably the most extreme in terms of out-reproducing everyone else, apparently about 80% of their kids leave the movement. And, of course, there's the shift in the Overton window, as you mentioned. Honestly, talking about whether the left or right is a majority or a minority is a bit misleading, because leftism is time-variant and left and right are defined with regards to the center point of the Overton window.

[Diopolis]

There are currently three factors to keep in mind.

First, conservatives are out-reproducing liberals, and political views are to a large degree inherited. The right-wing's opposition to birth control, abortion, etc is paying off in the long run, to some degree.

Second, young "conservatives" of the present are not in all ways the same as old "conservatives" of the past. The status quo has changed, and you can see a shift in generational attitudes and party stances, correspondingly. It is very difficult, for example, to find a modern "conservative" of the day explicitly endorsing racism, andthat such things as miscegnation laws. Mainstream conservatives insist that liberals are the racist ones, mainstream liberals insist that conservatives are the racist ones, and the end of the story is that almost everyone agrees with yesterday's liberals who denounced racism as a bad thing.

Third, there's a lot of in-fighting going on over in the left wing. I know, I feel like I'm in the trenches of it when I debate here on NSG, often enough.

Conservatives are out-reproducing liberals, but liberals are out-memeing conservatives. If you look at the Quiverfull movement, which is probably the most extreme in terms of out-reproducing everyone else, apparently about 80% of their kids leave the movement. And, of course, there's the shift in the Overton window, as you mentioned. Honestly, talking about whether the left or right is a majority or a minority is a bit misleading, because leftism is time-variant and left and right are defined with regards to the center point of the Overton window.

Considering they have 10-12 kids each, their movement can do that while continuing to grow without anyone new joining it. Also, looking at Mormons or (very devout; I understand that most Catholics are cafeteria Catholics)Catholics might be a better representation of what he means by conservatives outbreeding liberals. Those groups are more established and older; they are much better at retaining membership.

[Shaggai]

Conservatives are out-reproducing liberals, but liberals are out-memeing conservatives. If you look at the Quiverfull movement, which is probably the most extreme in terms of out-reproducing everyone else, apparently about 80% of their kids leave the movement. And, of course, there's the shift in the Overton window, as you mentioned. Honestly, talking about whether the left or right is a majority or a minority is a bit misleading, because leftism is time-variant and left and right are defined with regards to the center point of the Overton window.

Considering they have 10-12 kids each, their movement can do that while continuing to grow without anyone new joining it. Also, looking at Mormons or (very devout; I understand that most Catholics are cafeteria Catholics)Catholics might be a better representation of what he means by conservatives outbreeding liberals. Those groups are more established and older; they are much better at retaining membership.

20% of 10 is 2. If they have 10 kids each on average, they're at balance. As for Catholics and Mormons, they're still getting outmemed. The Overton window tends to move leftwards. They can't continue to be as conservative while remaining at all mainstream.

[Prussia-Steinbach]

Proud to have been raised a conservative, racist, sexist, Southern Baptist, and to have broken from the mold completely and entirely.

[Diopolis]

Considering they have 10-12 kids each, their movement can do that while continuing to grow without anyone new joining it. Also, looking at Mormons or (very devout; I understand that most Catholics are cafeteria Catholics)Catholics might be a better representation of what he means by conservatives outbreeding liberals. Those groups are more established and older; they are much better at retaining membership.

20% of 10 is 2. If they have 10 kids each on average, they're at balance. As for Catholics and Mormons, they're still getting outmemed. The Overton window tends to move leftwards. They can't continue to be as conservative while remaining at all mainstream.

They're not particularly mainstream- the vast majority of Catholics ignore the Vatican or follow its laws only selectively, but a minority do follow them strictly- at the moment. I'm not so sure about Mormons. It's possible we're looking at a situation where the mainstream is liberal but everyone who isn't mainstream is conservative.