Estonian Parliamentary Election, 2015

[Busen]

Definitely not the pro-Russia party. Those who vote for that party seem to be hostile against Estonia and I wonder who gave voting rights to those people.

See, it's comments like these that make people associate Estonia with far-right views.

(never mind the fact that a "pro-Russia party" doesn't even exist; there are only anti-Russian and neutral-towards-Russia parties)

Actually no, the only who associate Estonia with far-right views are usually left-winger or Christian Orthodox fundamentalist who see Russia as the "new Jerusalem" and ""orthodox brotherhood". While people like you are giving hearth breaking comments about the "poor Russian vs. ebul Balt" you tend to ignore that the Russians have an immigration status in the Baltics and refusing to learn the native language and instead demanding that the state fit to their needs.
In other words Russians in the Baltics during the USSR are the same as Aryans would have in Generalplan Ost in the cccupied areas.

Center Party targets mainly Russians and it is fair to say it is mainly a pro-Russian party.

[Teemant]

Today will be the last big TV debate (economy is the topic).

Just few days until elections remaining.

[Tallinna Rahvavabariik]

Today will be the last big TV debate (economy is the topic).

Just few days until elections remaining.

Indeed, there were quite a few interesting debates yesterday. Firstly between Sven Mikser (SDE) and Juhan Parts (IRL) on radio, later on Delfi TV the debate between 5 prime ministerial candidates of the larger parties (all except Edgar Savisaar from Center Party) and lastly the aforementioned debate on national TV regarding economic issues. I have to note that while my opinion of Juhan Parts has never been particularly high, yesterday he managed to sink to a new low for me. In both debates he was, simply put, rude - kept talking over the host and other candidates, didn't answer the questions, was overly confrontational with his opponents etc.

Also, of note is that 176 491 e-votes were cast in this election which is a new record for Estonia. E-voting was available from 19th to 25th February. Altogether, 296 109 people have already cast their vote which is 33% of the people who have a right to vote but we won't know the final result until late March 1st or 2nd because March 1 is the official election day.

[Teemant]

According to experts economy debate was won by Jürgen Ligi (Reform party) and I agree with it.

And it wasn't last big TV debate (as I said in a post earlier) but last one will be on Saturday. My mistake.

[Tallinna Rahvavabariik]

Latest poll numbers from today:
Reform Party - 26%
Center Party - 22%
SDE - 19%
IRL - 16%
Free Party - 10%
EKRE - 6%

I'd say it's really strange how different the ratings for Reform and Center are in different polls because just a week ago or so the Center Party had the lead. But only two more days until we know the results so keep your fingers crossed for your favorite party and candidate!

[Teemant]

Today is the election day.

I voted few hours ago and now I can do nothing else than wait for election results.

[Liberty and Linguistics]

Today is the election day.

I voted few hours ago and now I can do nothing else than wait for election results.

From what I've heard, the Reform Party can expect a victory, albeit with a slimmer margin than in 2011. No party wishes to form a coalition with the Centre Party, so I'm optimistic that Estonia will vote in Reform again.

[Tallinna Rahvavabariik]

Still unofficial but with all votes counted the results are as follows:

Reform Party - 30 seats
Center Party - 27 seats
SDE - 15 seats
IRL - 14 seats
Free Party - 8 seats
EKRE - 7 seats

The current coalition (Reform and SDE) lost its majority in the parliament. Personally, I hope that Reform will continue with SDE and add Free Party as the third coalition member but I guess we'll see in the following days and weeks.

[Busen]

Center party got more seat, which is bad. Hopefully this is not true.

[Baltenstein]

Seeing how the Centre Party's percentage of the vote and the percentage of Russophones in the Estonian population in general are almost identical, makes me wonder if almost every single Russophone voted for the Centre-Party and almost every single Estonian native speaker voted for something else.

[Teemant]

I'm happy because Reform party won.

I think most likely coalition will be Reform party + SDE + Free party but I don't rule out any surprises.

[Busen]

I'm happy because Reform party won.

I think most likely coalition will be Reform party + SDE + Free party but I don't rule out any surprises.

I am also happy for the Reform party but could you say something abou the Free party and their ideology? Wikipedia does not give many information and the result indicated that the Free party stole some voters from the Conservatives and Res Publica.

[Teemant]

I'm happy because Reform party won.

I think most likely coalition will be Reform party + SDE + Free party but I don't rule out any surprises.

I am also happy for the Reform party but could you say something abou the Free party and their ideology? Wikipedia does not give many information and the result indicated that the Free party stole some voters from the Conservatives and Res Publica.

According to political compass (that was on Estonian national news (Estonian Public Broadcasting - ERR) website) they are centre-right. What worries me about Free Party is their lack of experience (newcomers) so I don't know how good ministers they would be. Their most notable names are culture persons (theaters and other culture stuff).

It is most likely that IRL (Pro Patria and Res Publica Union) lost votes to Free Party and EKRE. There might be other explanations but it seems the most logical.

[Tallinna Rahvavabariik]

Some personal comments regarding the results:

Of the four parties that were in the previous parliament, only Center Party managed to increase support and they gained one seat. IRL lost 9 seats, SDE 4 and Reform 3 seats. Two new parties, the Free Party and the nationalist conservative EKRE, crossed the threshold and won 8 and 7 seats respectively. Based on a gut feeling and considering their political positions, I'd say that EKRE's seats came mostly at the expense of IRL and Free Party took seats mainly from SDE and Reform but there are certainly other possibilities as well. Since the overall participation in elections was 63,7% which was only 0,2% higher than in 2011, I'd say that there were probably very few people voting who hadn't done so before so the talk of the new parties bringing more people to vote is probably misleading.

Personally, I can't say I'm terribly happy with the result but it's also not the worst that could have happened. It's good that Reform Party won over Center but I would have hoped for a stronger showing for SDE and a worse result for EKRE. But the people have voted and that's democracy.

The results mean that the only way a two-party coalition can be formed is between Reform and Center. However, since Reform has excluded that possibility, they have to find other partners. That result also means that either Reform or Center is the unavoidable coalition partner - to gain the majority in the parliament, at least one of them has to be in the government. And since all the other parties have also declined to work with Center at least as long as Edgar Savisaar is its leader, it means that any possible new government will have to include the Reform Party.

Most analysts have speculated that Reform will continue with SDE and will add the Free Party as a third member but there are a few problems with that. Firstly, Reform, SDE and Free Party would only have 53 seats between the three of them out of 101 which makes for a narrow majority and considering that the Free Party, fitting to its name, consists of rather different political opinions and are mainly united in their wish to have changes (but don't exactly agree on what kind of changes exactly), may easily result in defections to other parties or simply in a situation where their parliamentary faction cannot maintain a united vote.

Secondly, as I've noted before, we may see the return of the triple alliance of Reform, SDE and IRL. While that coalition would have more MP's, 59, the coalition talks would probably be rather difficult because IRL has made many demands that they say they will not back down from and also, their campaign was very confrontational and rude towards their opponents so there may not be that much good will towards IRL in Reform Party at this point. However, purely from ideological perspective, I'd say that IRL would be a closer match for Reform than SDE and a coalition of Reform, IRL and Free Party may be easier to manage from that point of view. However, they would only have 52 seats.

Then there is EKRE with their 7 seats. While they have already indicated that they are willing to be flexible in certain positions and goals, I'm not sure they would make a desirable partner for Reform. Firstly, their somewhat extremist views and eurosceptic stance is definitely not acceptable to any of the other larger parties and also, the most likely coalition inluding them, Reform, IRL and EKRE, would only have 51 seats. Since EKRE has said that they will not form a government with both Center and SDE, it's most probably also the only possible combination including them, with the exception of a four-party coalition of Reform, IRL, Free Party and EKRE but I believe such a coalition would be highly unstable as well. Also, SDE has expressed their disapproval of EKRE's political platform so it's hard to see any combination including both SDE and EKRE.

[Teemant]

It might take now some time until we know what next coalition looks like. Forming a coalition has even taken up to 6 weeks but I don't think it will take this long.

[Tallinna Rahvavabariik]

Things are getting more interesting now. The Free Party seems to play hardball and doesn't want to be an easy partner for Reform. Which is quite logical because, for one, it is a new party and is very much at risk of losing its face and support if they join the new coalition as the smallest partner and make too many compromises. Reform Party, as said before, has already excluded Center Party from possible coalition talks. And yesterday, a new scandal broke over a blog post of an EKRE member which was interpreted as justifying the Nazi regime. The failure of the party's leadership to properly condemn this (they condemned the media instead who broke the story) has now resulted in a situation where both SDE and also Reform Party have excluded the possibility of coalition talks with EKRE. This basically leaves only Reform Party, SDE, IRL and the Free Party to form a new government.

[Teemant]

Things are getting more interesting now. The Free Party seems to play hardball and doesn't want to be an easy partner for Reform. Which is quite logical because, for one, it is a new party and is very much at risk of losing its face and support if they join the new coalition as the smallest partner and make too many compromises. Reform Party, as said before, has already excluded Center Party from possible coalition talks. And yesterday, a new scandal broke over a blog post of an EKRE member which was interpreted as justifying the Nazi regime. The failure of the party's leadership to properly condemn this (they condemned the media instead who broke the story) has now resulted in a situation where both SDE and also Reform Party have excluded the possibility of coalition talks with EKRE. This basically leaves only Reform Party, SDE, IRL and the Free Party to form a new government.

They are now talking about four party coaliton so that all Reform Party, SDE, IRL and Free Party would be in coalition. This would give coalition some 67 seats of 101.

[Baltenstein]

Things are getting more interesting now. The Free Party seems to play hardball and doesn't want to be an easy partner for Reform. Which is quite logical because, for one, it is a new party and is very much at risk of losing its face and support if they join the new coalition as the smallest partner and make too many compromises. Reform Party, as said before, has already excluded Center Party from possible coalition talks. And yesterday, a new scandal broke over a blog post of an EKRE member which was interpreted as justifying the Nazi regime.

*Russia Today execs have a field day*

[Tallinna Rahvavabariik]

They are now talking about four party coaliton so that all Reform Party, SDE, IRL and Free Party would be in coalition. This would give coalition some 67 seats of 101.

While I can see how on one hand such a coalition would make sense - it would represent 2/3 of all voters and therefore have a high degree of legitimation, on the other hand I'm afraid it would be highly unstable and very unlikely to survive until next elections. So far this four-party coalition has been Reform's idea and others, especially SDE, seem rather wary of it and with good reason I think. From Reform's perspective such a coalition would be good because if any of the other parties would make too many demands, it'd be easy to drop them and still have the coalition survive. Also, I suspect the negotiations would turn into a contest where the lowest bidder wins, i.e who would be willing to give up the most demands to accommodate Reform and to get into the government.

[Lytenburgh]

As a sort of Post Scriptum to the latest Elections in Estonia:

Most Russian citizens of Estonia are accomplices of the occupiers and representatives of the "fifth column". Such a conclusion is made by the director of the Centre for Human Rights of Tallinn's Law School of Tallinn's University Eugene Tsybulenko on the basis of past March 1 Estonian parliamentary elections.

"Given that the key politicians of the Center Party openly expressed support for the Kremlin's aggression in the Ukraine, we can state unequivocally that centrists' voters - are accomplices of Russian occupiers and are representatives of the fifth column," - said Tsybulenko pages personal web blog.

The human rights activist said that for candidates of the Estonian Centre Party voted 76% Russians and 14% Estonians. At the same time, indicates Tsybulenko, considering that Estonians a "fifth column" would not be entirely correct. "The pro-Kremlin rhetoric of centrists is spread mostly in Russian, so that these 14% of Estonians may not represent for whom they vote, as opposed to 76% of Russians" - said the author of the post.

Continuing the argument, the human rights activist told that among the remaining 24% of the Russian he has a lot of friends, "who are not occupiers and collaborators and who love Estonia". "But, alas, the majority will be judged by the majority, that is, the 76%" - added Tsibulenko.

A piece of advice summarizes the post: If someone from Russian will again question - why such an attitude toward them? - Let them read this post. "They have made their civilizational choice" - the end of the post.

Yes, that's right. Human rights activist in Estonia blisfully ingonred his job's description for a round of good o;d fashioned Russophobia. Because, when Russian "seccies" (second class citizens) are voting, this is a catasrophe and direct and clear danger to democracy.

[Teemant]

As a sort of Post Scriptum to the latest Elections in Estonia:

Most Russian citizens of Estonia are accomplices of the occupiers and representatives of the "fifth column". Such a conclusion is made by the director of the Centre for Human Rights of Tallinn's Law School of Tallinn's University Eugene Tsybulenko on the basis of past March 1 Estonian parliamentary elections.

"Given that the key politicians of the Center Party openly expressed support for the Kremlin's aggression in the Ukraine, we can state unequivocally that centrists' voters - are accomplices of Russian occupiers and are representatives of the fifth column," - said Tsybulenko pages personal web blog.

The human rights activist said that for candidates of the Estonian Centre Party voted 76% Russians and 14% Estonians. At the same time, indicates Tsybulenko, considering that Estonians a "fifth column" would not be entirely correct. "The pro-Kremlin rhetoric of centrists is spread mostly in Russian, so that these 14% of Estonians may not represent for whom they vote, as opposed to 76% of Russians" - said the author of the post.

Continuing the argument, the human rights activist told that among the remaining 24% of the Russian he has a lot of friends, "who are not occupiers and collaborators and who love Estonia". "But, alas, the majority will be judged by the majority, that is, the 76%" - added Tsibulenko.

A piece of advice summarizes the post: If someone from Russian will again question - why such an attitude toward them? - Let them read this post. "They have made their civilizational choice" - the end of the post.

Yes, that's right. Human rights activist in Estonia blisfully ingonred his job's description for a round of good o;d fashioned Russophobia. Because, when Russian "seccies" (second class citizens) are voting, this is a catasrophe and direct and clear danger to democracy.

Never even seen article like this in Estonian media. Why do you so desperately want to portay Baltic countries as Russophobes? Stop propaganda.

[Lytenburgh]

Never even seen article like this in Estonian media.

Oh? So an article by Russian Estonians is not an article in Estonian media for you?

Why do you so desperately want to portay Baltic countries as Russophobes? Stop propaganda.

1) I don't even need to try.
2) What propaganda?

[Teemant]

Never even seen article like this in Estonian media.

Oh? So an article by Russian Estonians is not an article in Estonian media for you?

Why do you so desperately want to portay Baltic countries as Russophobes? Stop propaganda.

1) I don't even need to try.
2) What propaganda?

You clearly don't even know what newpapers people read in Estonia. I'm sure that 99% Estonian citizens don't even know that newspaper like this even exists.

[Lytenburgh]

You clearly don't even know what newpapers people read in Estonia. I'm sure that 99% Estonian citizens don't even know that newspaper like this even exists.

What, Baltija.eu? Well, given the fact that it was visited 311 887 times for the last 31 days and 10 792 times for the last 24 hours, something tells me that it is know in Estnonia. Maybe, not by "proper" Estonians, but known.

[Baltenstein]

As a sort of Post Scriptum to the latest Elections in Estonia:

Most Russian citizens of Estonia are accomplices of the occupiers and representatives of the "fifth column". Such a conclusion is made by the director of the Centre for Human Rights of Tallinn's Law School of Tallinn's University Eugene Tsybulenko on the basis of past March 1 Estonian parliamentary elections.

"Given that the key politicians of the Center Party openly expressed support for the Kremlin's aggression in the Ukraine, we can state unequivocally that centrists' voters - are accomplices of Russian occupiers and are representatives of the fifth column," - said Tsybulenko pages personal web blog.

The human rights activist said that for candidates of the Estonian Centre Party voted 76% Russians and 14% Estonians. At the same time, indicates Tsybulenko, considering that Estonians a "fifth column" would not be entirely correct. "The pro-Kremlin rhetoric of centrists is spread mostly in Russian, so that these 14% of Estonians may not represent for whom they vote, as opposed to 76% of Russians" - said the author of the post.

Continuing the argument, the human rights activist told that among the remaining 24% of the Russian he has a lot of friends, "who are not occupiers and collaborators and who love Estonia". "But, alas, the majority will be judged by the majority, that is, the 76%" - added Tsibulenko.

A piece of advice summarizes the post: If someone from Russian will again question - why such an attitude toward them? - Let them read this post. "They have made their civilizational choice" - the end of the post.

Yes, that's right. Human rights activist in Estonia blisfully ingonred his job's description for a round of good o;d fashioned Russophobia. Because, when Russian "seccies" (second class citizens) are voting, this is a catasrophe and direct and clear danger to democracy.

Why do you take offense when other people portray Russian minorities living abroad as Fifth Column? Aren't you doing exactly the same?