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Double, Double Oil and Trouble

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Marcurix
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Double, Double Oil and Trouble

Postby Marcurix » Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:54 am

Greetings NSG.

So, if you've been paying attention to the news, or perhaps your petrol pump, in the last few months you're aware of the decline in oil prices. Prices have declined by as much as 40% in the last three months, and there are fears they could decline further.

This concern has lead to a spate of articles and reports, including this one by the BBC:
http://m.bbc.com/news/business-30393690

Seems this decline has gotten people across several sectors bothered, particularly since OPEC has so far declined to cut production.

So, what say you NSG? Is this drastic fall in the price of oil a good or a bad thing? A blip in a trend or a sign of things to come? How do you feel it will affect the world? How has it affected you?

Discuss.

From my standpoint the falling price of oil is a mixed bag for me. I live in an area of Scotland that, while not the centre of the oil industry, is close and can be impacted quite negatively as a result. The company I work for also has a couple of contracts with oil companies worldwide, and those may soon be thrown into doubt as a result. I do, however, feel this won't be a longterm trend but that we may be dealing with this for the majority of 2015.

On the more worldly state of things, some places that rely on oil for their budgets (Russia, Alberta, Venezuela, ect) seem to be scrambling to fix, or at least adjust, to the situation as the negative repercussions for them are felt.
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Ashmoria
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Postby Ashmoria » Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:00 am

its a good thing. it wont last anyway but its nice to have someone other than the oil companies benefitting from that money.

the price of gas here is about $.60/liter now. whats the price in Scotland? has it gone down for you too?
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Marcurix
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Postby Marcurix » Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:28 am

Ashmoria wrote:its a good thing. it wont last anyway but its nice to have someone other than the oil companies benefitting from that money.

the price of gas here is about $.60/liter now. whats the price in Scotland? has it gone down for you too?



A little bit, but I don't currently have a car so not too much for me.

I think the lowest price I've seen recently was around 116p/ litre
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Fionnuala_Saoirse
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Postby Fionnuala_Saoirse » Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:54 am

Ashmoria wrote:its a good thing. it wont last anyway but its nice to have someone other than the oil companies benefitting from that money.

the price of gas here is about $.60/liter now. whats the price in Scotland? has it gone down for you too?


Seems to have gone from around 128 pence per litre to around 117 pence per litre in Edinburgh
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Conserative Morality
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Postby Conserative Morality » Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:57 am

I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.
Last edited by Conserative Morality on Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Frazers
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Postby Frazers » Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:08 am

Marcurix wrote:
Ashmoria wrote:its a good thing. it wont last anyway but its nice to have someone other than the oil companies benefitting from that money.

the price of gas here is about $.60/liter now. whats the price in Scotland? has it gone down for you too?



A little bit, but I don't currently have a car so not too much for me.

I think the lowest price I've seen recently was around 116p/ litre


I wonder if the oil price drops will have any effect on the opinions towards independence in Scotland.

Seems like you guys dodged a bullet even more than previously known.

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Allet Klar Chefs
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Postby Allet Klar Chefs » Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:08 am

Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

Maybe it's just that the Arabs really, really hate African and American efforts to do them over with their own reserve, and since the largest Kuwaiti and Saudi oil fields basically seep oil like an spread gash, they don't have much to worry about themselves.

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The Grim Reaper
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Postby The Grim Reaper » Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:12 am

Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Unite ... Conference

When you throw in the G20 Summit, the timing seems as if it was built up to respond to prevailing sentiments regarding the place of renewables and oils.

However, it is possible that this hasn't been thought out very carefully - or, more likely, that any such effects are peripheral. Falling oil prices could reduce the power of the oil lobbies in nations like Australia, the USA, and Russia.

That would, in turn, open up MORE investment in renewable energy spearheaded by various interest groups of disgruntled out-of-work energy engineers looking to stab their former, dying employers in the pack by throwing their lot into an infant industry which just happens to need their skills.

It's more likely, IMO, that it's a powerplay by OPEC - they might be trying to short oil and in doing so, placing themselves in a dominant market position, expecting a future drop in prices that would have been out of their hands. By driving a truck through the bottom of the market, they're crippling the future capacity of other nations to produce oil - holding on to their own market position, and actually utilizing their production capacity for a change.
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Sdaeriji
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Postby Sdaeriji » Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:21 am

Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.


I think it's more likely that they're trying to drive prices down below the point of profitability for shale oil extraction.
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Ashmoria
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Postby Ashmoria » Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:37 am

I think its an effort to screw Russia. what with the economic sanctions already causing the Russian economy trouble a $60/barrel oil price will put them into a depression. if they can make it last 2 years (seems doubtful) it will be devastating.

what could possibly go wrong?
whatever

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Iwassoclose
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Postby Iwassoclose » Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:48 am

OPEC wants dominance over oil, or near dominance but with every body in the neighborhood suddenly drilling for oil, well they cant have that.

Also fuck OPEC.

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Marcurix
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Postby Marcurix » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:35 am

Ashmoria wrote:I think its an effort to screw Russia. what with the economic sanctions already causing the Russian economy trouble a $60/barrel oil price will put them into a depression. if they can make it last 2 years (seems doubtful) it will be devastating.

what could possibly go wrong?


I've also heard theories it's an attempt to undermine the shale gas exploits and oil sands in N.America, and that exactly how far the price falls (which the person put at below $60 a barrel) would indicate the objective.
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Estado Nacional
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Postby Estado Nacional » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:41 am

Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.


That's probably what's actually happening.
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Marcurix
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Postby Marcurix » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:46 am

Frazers wrote:
Marcurix wrote:

A little bit, but I don't currently have a car so not too much for me.

I think the lowest price I've seen recently was around 116p/ litre


I wonder if the oil price drops will have any effect on the opinions towards independence in Scotland.

Seems like you guys dodged a bullet even more than previously known.


The nature of oil prices was a concern raised during the campaign, I couldn't say wether the current situation has changed any minds though. Been trying to avoid that topic as of late.
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A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
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Valica
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Postby Valica » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:49 am

Hopefully when the prices slingshot back, people will have been so used to low prices that they invest that saved money in renewable methods for cars.

Tesla, water engines, clean-burning fuels.
All of it needs to come so we can kill oil and have a shot at saving our godforsaken planet.
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Postby Arkolon » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:50 am

This was covered in The Economist magazine: the US pumping out more barrels of petrol through fracking means Saudi Arabia pressures OPEC to decline oil prices to stay competitive. Although other OPEC members desperately need more revenue and could hardly survive with lower petrol prices, such as Venezuela, Saudi Arabia is trying its best to stay the market leader.
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Ashmoria
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Postby Ashmoria » Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:56 am

Marcurix wrote:
Ashmoria wrote:I think its an effort to screw Russia. what with the economic sanctions already causing the Russian economy trouble a $60/barrel oil price will put them into a depression. if they can make it last 2 years (seems doubtful) it will be devastating.

what could possibly go wrong?


I've also heard theories it's an attempt to undermine the shale gas exploits and oil sands in N.America, and that exactly how far the price falls (which the person put at below $60 a barrel) would indicate the objective.

that could be. this price also makes alternative energy types unprofitable so its not a great idea.

im not against ruining the shale oil industry in general. I dislike this push to suck every possible bit of oil out of the ground right now instead of holding some back "for later". *shrug*
whatever

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Big Jim P
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Postby Big Jim P » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:26 pm

Gas for less than $2 a gallon in some places? What's not to like?
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Second Blazing
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Postby Second Blazing » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:30 pm

Ashmoria wrote:I think its an effort to screw Russia. what with the economic sanctions already causing the Russian economy trouble a $60/barrel oil price will put them into a depression. if they can make it last 2 years (seems doubtful) it will be devastating.

what could possibly go wrong?


This. Oil and natural gas are Russia's lifeblood, without high prices, their economy will crash.
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Maurepas
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Postby Maurepas » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:37 pm

Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

I would actually say the conspiracy is directed at Shale Oil more than likely. If you drive the price down low enough it's no longer cost effective to Frack which is a big competitor with OPEC in the international market.

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Postby Northwest Slobovia » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:47 pm

Maurepas wrote:
Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

I would actually say the conspiracy is directed at Shale Oil more than likely. If you drive the price down low enough it's no longer cost effective to Frack which is a big competitor with OPEC in the international market.

There's a lot of business sources saying this (Reuters, The Economist, couple otehrs, though it's too late for me to provide links). It's not an unreasonable thing for OPEC to do, but I've also seen discussion of how much money the Frac'ing companies have salted away for price drops. Apparently, they can take the hit for some months before they have to start slowing down their own production.

'course some sources are also looking at Iran, Venezuela, and/or Russia as possible economic targets of Saudi wrath. The Saudis have no love for Iran, and the US governemtn might be/might have been suggesting they put pressure on Russia, even at the short-term cost of domestic oil production.

I think either reason (market share or petro-politics) is plausible, and frankly, screwing up all of them (frac'ers, other countries) while lowering my fuel price is fine with me. :)
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Estva
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Postby Estva » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:48 pm

Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

It's actually rather commonly accepted fact that the Saudis are doing exactly this, but against shale oil, not renewable oil.
Last edited by Estva on Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Imyoji » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:51 pm

Big Jim P wrote:Gas for less than $2 a gallon in some places? What's not to like?

More like what's not to fear. I'm extremely skeptical of such a drop, not to mention much of my fears align nicely to my disdain of the Sauds and OPEC.

It could be this:
Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

And it would be disastrous in the long term. Though it's more shale oil if anything.
Last edited by Imyoji on Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Jordsindia » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:55 pm

Valica wrote:Hopefully when the prices slingshot back, people will have been so used to low prices that they invest that saved money in renewable methods for cars.

Tesla, water engines, clean-burning fuels.
All of it needs to come so we can kill oil and have a shot at saving our godforsaken planet.

Yea, because oil is solely responsible for killing off the planet. WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE!! ALL GONNA DIE I TELL YA! THE TEMPERATURE ROSE A DEGREE OR TWO!
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Imyoji
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Postby Imyoji » Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:57 pm

Jordsindia wrote:
Valica wrote:Hopefully when the prices slingshot back, people will have been so used to low prices that they invest that saved money in renewable methods for cars.

Tesla, water engines, clean-burning fuels.
All of it needs to come so we can kill oil and have a shot at saving our godforsaken planet.

Yea, because oil is solely responsible for killing off the planet. WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE!! ALL GONNA DIE I TELL YA! THE TEMPERATURE ROSE A DEGREE OR TWO!

Maybe if you payed more attention to the scientific studies or were remotely scientific literate, you would not say such bull that easily.
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