Next Government you Predict your IRL Nation will Have.

[Calimera II]

I have really no idea.

[Nervium]

I hope the next Belgian goverment is idiot-free.


My hope deminishes every day.

[Calimera II]

I hope the next Belgian goverment is idiot-free.


My hope deminishes every day.

The current Belgian government is the best you could have right now.

[The Blaatschapen]

PVV-VVD-CDA

No. The CDA is definitely not willing to work together with the PVV anymore, since that was one of the reasons of their decline (2010-2013). The VVD has said that they don't want to form a coalition with the PVV, due to the ''Moroccans'' incident.

or: VVD-D66-PvdA

They PvdA is not very popular under VVD voters. Mark Rutte will most definitely try to form a coalition with the Christian Democrats instead (CDA).

How likely is D66 to burn their fingers again on a coalition on the right? It went horribly wrong in Balkenende II for them. So VVD-CDA-D66 is not likely an option.

And VVD-CDA alone will not have a majority.

Mind that I said PVV-VVD-CDA. And not VVD-CDA-PVV as it was last time. The difference being that PVV would be the biggest in the coalition I predict, and thus gets the benefit of starting coalition talks. Of course, while we can ignore the biggest party (it has happened before, with the coalition of van Agt I), it is not custom to do so.

Then again, it is PVV, custom goes out of the window with them.

[Nervium]

I hope the next Belgian goverment is idiot-free.


My hope deminishes every day.

The current Belgian government is the best you could have right now.

If you take out the Flemish nationalists, the liberal parties, then proceed to add the CdH and social democratic parties, yes.


Oh wait.

[Vistulange]

I'm assuming the 2015 general elections will be, again, the Justice and Development Party (AKP). After that, well...I think I've got a legitimate basis for believing there won't be a 2019 general election.

[Calimera II]

No. The CDA is definitely not willing to work together with the PVV anymore, since that was one of the reasons of their decline (2010-2013). The VVD has said that they don't want to form a coalition with the PVV, due to the ''Moroccans'' incident.




They PvdA is not very popular under VVD voters. Mark Rutte will most definitely try to form a coalition with the Christian Democrats instead (CDA).

How likely is D66 to burn their fingers again on a coalition on the right? It went horribly wrong in Balkenende II for them. So VVD-CDA-D66 is not likely an option.

Oh, it is very likely, the CDA recently has had a complete transformation. And D66 is power-hungry.

And VVD-CDA alone will not have a majority.

But VVD-CDA-D66 will.

[Terrad]

Norway: Probably will become a republic when they decide "The monarchy doesn't play a big role politically or culturally, screw it let's become a republic."

[Vecima]

Ireland: Fine Gael/Independents/Greens(MAYBE)
OR
Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil

[Degenerate Heart of HetRio]

Brazil: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the usual circle of small shameful parties that coalition with and taint the PT, I hope.

[Britanno]

Its not much more unlikely than most of the other options I suppose. Hopefully the situation might become more obvious closer to May.

But then I'd still be happy with a Tory Lib-Dem coalition (one of the few who would it seems)

I'd love that, I'm a moderate Tory so it would be nice to have the Lib Dems in government with us again.

Then again, I can't see it happening. Clegg won't be leader of his party after the election and it's hard to see how Tim Farron or Danny Alexander would choose the Tories over Labour.

[Martean]

Spain: Podemos at the brink of an absolute mayority, supported by United Left, and Left-Wing Basque, Catalan, and Galician Nationalists (Podemos-IU-Amaiur-ERC-BNGa)

[The Blaatschapen]

How likely is D66 to burn their fingers again on a coalition on the right? It went horribly wrong in Balkenende II for them. So VVD-CDA-D66 is not likely an option.

Oh, it is very likely, the CDA recently has had a complete transformation. And D66 is power-hungry.

And VVD-CDA alone will not have a majority.

But VVD-CDA-D66 will.

Did the VVD have one, since that's where the big problem was. Verdonk...

*looks at Teeven and Opstelten*

Nope. The conservative wing of the VVD is still there. Despite the leader of the VVD not being part of that wing.

And I'll see if the CDA actually had their transformation when they're in power again. It's easy to transform when you're in the opposition. Though I heard that Camiel has no job. He's more charismatic than Buma. I would not be surprised if he comes back.

So again, I'm not really seeing VVD-CDA-D66 as option. While I do see "purple" as an option. The non-conservativeness of PvDA will balance out the conservatives in the VVD.

[Southern Hampshire]

For all the five countries I've lived in

United Kingdom: It is awfully hard to predict. It's almost impossible. I reckon another Conservative / Lib Dem coalition might pull through.

- Gibraltar: This one is even more awful to predict. You have the Socialist Labour on one side (current governing), the Liberal Party who will give their arse to the winners and the Social Democrats. The Social Democrats and Socialist Labour have been head-to-head for the last 40 years and the parliament switched hands frequently until the last 16, when Socialist Labour won all the time. However, Socialist Labour has recently suggested a progressive taxation to increase budget, which definitely won't go down too well with the population as most of us are well-off and prefer a fair-share of burden than a higher share as you go up. I reckon the Social Democrats will win this time purely because of their promise to upkeep the flat income tax.

New Jersey/US: Chris Christie. Non-negotiable. Chris Christie may even be the answer to both questions if he stands for President. Guaranteed in NJ, though. I am however fairly sure that a Republican government will pull through. I also reckon that 2016 will be the first ever time with a Libertarian rep in the Congress.

Poland: As much as I hate to say it, probably a Law and Justice (PiS) coalition with some of it's vassals. I think the departure of Donald Tusk from Poland to the EU was a major blow to the Civil Platform (PO) party. Ewa Kopacz hasn't made herself known enough and I do not think this will allow her to win an election. I like the EU and want it's federalization, but at the moment it's a dead cause with all the recessions going on. Donald Tusk, in my view, wasted his career by deciding to go "up" into the EU. He was governing for 8 years, I hoped for another 4. But hey, if PO manage to get another 4 without Tusk that's great.

Israel: Israel is already going through it's most turbulent parliamentary governance. Fifteen parties in the parliament. Says it all. Of all above, this is the most difficult to predict. The opposition is suffering greatly. So is the coalition. However, Likud's (Coalition-governor, Netanyahu's party) is going strong. Netanyahu's decisive and military actions towards Gaza, West Bank, Syria and Iraq will go hugely in his favour. Israel's massive economical growth is also often accredited to his government, and will likely sway thousands of voters to his party. His new economical reforms including less progressive taxation (lowering top rate by 15%) is likely to go down well with northern Israel who's population are vehement supporters of Likud's rival (The Jewish Home), but coalition, party. His military reforms which include a massive new funding to cyberwarfare/cyberdefence at the expense of welfare cuts and lowered debt interest will play in his favour from conservatives Israelis, many of whom are currently with the opposition. As said here, the lowered debt interest is also a championing of Netanyahu's economics which allowed him to pay it off.

Equally, the second big-player in the coalition, Yesh Atid, is now led by a very popular figure from both the television and military. They are going even further, suggesting a flat income tax, however, like Likud, they too are claiming that they are the reason Israel's economy is in such a state. They are also suggesting the ability to take pension in a lump sum, rather than installments, as part of their economic freedom reforms. This will likely go down well with conservatives, and, perhaps, even Likud voters.

Hatnuah, another coalition party, is also going strong. They too are claiming that they championed the economy, but most of all, they are claiming that they are the reason of Israel's decreased pollution and increase in small businesses. And rightly so - they are the only 'Green' party in the Knesset. Hatnuah's revolutionizing reforms which include secular Zionism and pro-peace politics are likely to go down well with Israel's Arab population. I predict they will become another big player, equal to Likud and Yesh Atid.

Then we go to the opposition. Suffering. The Labor party is a complete and utter failure. Isaac Herzog's extreme unpopularity is likely to be a mitigating factor in their downfall. Herzog's strong belief in a one-state solution is turning his voters away who do not want to share their economic growth with the Palestinians. Israel's strong economical position and improvement under the coalition is playing hugely in his downfall, as, obviously, people want it to continue, and it almost certainly won't under the LAB. However, on a good note, growing inequality (although slow) may or may not go in his favour. Almost definitely going to be worse off after the election, though.

Then we have the Shas, the second biggest opposition party and fourth biggest overrall. Good god, it is almost as if they are revolutionizing politics without doing a thing. Several conservatives, especially Ashkenazic Jews, are in fury over Netanyahu's 'soft touch' approach to Syria, ISIS, Iran and to some extent West Bank. Netanyahu's failure over securing the mound for the Jews rather than for the Muslims are going hugely in favour of the Israeli religious vote for the Shas. They are also likely to grow. They have done nothing other than pledge further funding for the military to eliminate ISIS, invest even more in drones than the current $2 billion that there already is (highest in the world) and their pledge to stop Palestinians to travel on the same public transport as Israelis and lowering the voting age to 16 nation-wide.

I am almost sure that the winning party in 2017 will come from the current Coalition, but which party will take leadership of the coalition is impossible to say. Shas are likely to become part of the next coalition as well after their reconciliation with Netanyahu over national conscription. This renders the opposition ... non-existent.

[Islamic State of UKIP]

Hard to say. Either a Labour-SNP coalition with Salmond as deputy PM in a Dick Chaney type role, or we'll leave the union altogether as it was only kept together by Westminster tearing up the Edinburgh Agreement and then breaking their "Vow". Hopefully the first though, we could do a lot to better the rest of the U.K. and then leave in 2020

[Chestaan]

Ireland: Fine Gael/Independents/Greens(MAYBE)
OR
Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil

The next election may be the most interesting since the founding of the state. The left wing parties and Sinn Fein look set to gain massively when compared to the last general election and it may even be the case that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael don't have enough seats combined to form the next government.

[Pandeeria]

US:

If everything stays at this rate, we'll be an authoritarian corporacratic state.

[Kelinfort]

Democratic President and Republican Congress, but perhaps the Democrats win back the Senate.

[Pandeeria]

Democratic President and Republican Congress, but perhaps the Democrats win back the Senate.

I think in the long run (over the course of 30ish years) they'll win the presidency, have both the house and senate, and will have more members then the republicans in the Supreme Court.

[Alizeria]

It's hard to say with New Zealand as we only just had an election, but I honestly suspect that National will scrape in with a fourth term in 2017.

Labour is still going to take a long time to recover from its internal problems, especially given their shocking result in September and I can't imagine Winston Peters will still be around in 2017 which will lose the left a valuable coalition partner (let's face it, Winston won't go into coalition with John Key).

Admittedly Andrew Little looks like a very effective opposition leader, and could well get Labour into the 30% range by 2017 making it a much closer election but unless John Key gets hit by a bus, or unless there is a real scandal which manages to taint him (the 'Dirty Politics' stuff won't because the only people who care are the people who already oppose Mr. Key) I think that they will narrowly gain a fourth term.

I can actually see Labour winning government in 2017, although not by a large majority. It will definitely need to be with the Greens and whichever batshit left-wing party rises in the next three years following the demise of both the Internet Party and Mana. New Zealand Prime Ministers generally do not last beyond three terms, if recent history is to be believed.

Little seems like a best bet for 2017, if he manages to avoid being a complete and utter moron like his predecessors. Time will tell.

I definitely think that a Labour victory is within the realms of possibility in 2017 (whereas in 2011 and 2014 it was pretty much in the bag for the Nats) and that Andrew Little could make an effective Prime Minister. It'll be a close one, but on the other hand my gut instinct says Key might just go for the record. You can tell he's modelled himself off Keith Holyoake and he could well reach that goal.

But it's way too early to tell, though I suspect Labour are going to do a lot better in 2017 under Little's leadership.

-- Remind me to put more detailed reasons for why I think National can win a fourth term in this space tomorrow when I'm sober--

[Fortschritte]

UK: Either Labour minority, supported by a number of small left-wing parties.... Or the horrific possibility of a Tory/UKIP coalition :/

Say what you will about Cameron, but I don't think he's dumb enough to explore the possibilities of a coalition with UKIP.

[Kelinfort]

UK: Either Labour minority, supported by a number of small left-wing parties.... Or the horrific possibility of a Tory/UKIP coalition :/

Say what you will about Cameron, but I don't think he's dumb enough to explore the possibilities of a coalition with UKIP.

UKIP may win a single seat or two, if they win anything. Cameron would need the Lib Dems again, even after they get destroyed.

[Fortschritte]

In 2016, I'm guessing that the US will have a Democratic president and a GOP congress. I'm not sure about the senate. The idealistic side of me says that the Democrats will win it back, but the more realist side of me thinks that the Dems will make gains in the Senate, but won't secure a majority.

[Insaeldor]

Democratic President and Republican Congress, but perhaps the Democrats win back the Senate.

I doubt it, republicans aren't completly consumed by the Tea Party and they've got a few feild able candidates. After such grueling losses I think we're seeing an end to the 2008 democratic surge government.

Democratic President and Republican Congress, but perhaps the Democrats win back the Senate.

I think in the long run (over the course of 30ish years) they'll win the presidency, have both the house and senate, and will have more members then the republicans in the Supreme Court.

30ish? Try less then ten. Usually takes one two term president to force a shift from one party to another. Maybe will be a two termer and then a one termer before we see a switch back too democratic control.

[Fortschritte]

Say what you will about Cameron, but I don't think he's dumb enough to explore the possibilities of a coalition with UKIP.

UKIP may win a single seat or two, if they win anything. Cameron would need the Lib Dems again, even after they get destroyed.

That too. I can't imagine UKIP winning more than 5 seats, because they don't have any real "strongholds." And, if the LibDems do get completely obliterated to the point where they have very few seats, a grand coalition between Labour and the Tories could be necessary.