Next Government you Predict your IRL Nation will Have.

[Valaran]

UK: Either Labour minority, supported by a number of small left-wing parties.... Or the horrific possibility of a Tory/UKIP coalition :/

Not under FPTP. I'm predicting a Tory minority or small majority. It seems unlikely right now, but I think that over the coming months the Tories will establish a clear poll lead.

Its not much more unlikely than most of the other options I suppose. Hopefully the situation might become more obvious closer to May.

But then I'd still be happy with a Tory Lib-Dem coalition (one of the few who would it seems)

[Laerod]

Germany:
CDU (Christian Democrats)

Wishful thinking. The CSU will be in the government as well if the CDU makes it.

[Arcanda]

Fascists.

[Cworaliya]

Hmmh, Germany... I guess Angela Merkel and the Christian Democrats will remain in power for some 20-30 years.

There are rumours that she will not compete in the next Bundestag-elections in 2017. Maybe then the SPD will finally stand a chance to win the chancellorship

[Estado Nacional]

It is my belief, that we shalt have a Sixth French Republic, run by myself, others in such a revolutionary government, as well as the masses themselves in an economic direct-democracy Qadhafi style; with a Communist economy, a Traditionalist socio-cultural outlook, an anti-Revisionist platform, an environmentalist platform, a transparency anti-corruption platform, a Pluralist platform (ensuring peaceful co-existence between all religions, ethnicities, races, irreligious in our country, utilising Syria's model as inspiration), a Left-wing Nationalist platform; with a staunch foreign policy that runs along the lines of anti-Capitalism, anti-Zionism, anti-Fascism, anti-Nazism, anti-Banderites, anti-Uribism, anti-Apartheid (believe it or not, some nations like Morocco or Israel still practise it), anti-McCarthyism, anti-Hedonism, anti-Liberalism, anti-Conservatism, anti-Libertarianism, anti-Mercantilism, anti-Social Darwinism, anti-Imperialism, anti-Colonialism, anti-Ottomanism, anti-Takfirism in addition to anti-Globalisation. Such a Sixth Republic's economics might be a blend of Central Planning (State regulates economy in addition to means of production, organises five-year period guidelines, etcetera), Project Cybersyn, with Localised Planning (revolutionary popular committees run by all peasants & workers; masses own means of production). The State would not touch personal property (your homes, personal belongings, electronics, food, cars, etcetera), however will abolish private property (corporations, conglomerates, private sector financial mobster banks, etcetera). Nationalisation of all domestic in addition to foreign assets would ensue to prioritise people over profits, to utilise these assets for the benefit of the masses by throwing it all into redistribution of wealth, land reforms, socio-economic public programmes, raising living standards, whilst also reduce income inequality altogether.

Come the fuck on.

[Arcanda]

It is my belief, that we shalt have a Sixth French Republic, run by myself, others in such a revolutionary government, as well as the masses themselves in an economic direct-democracy Qadhafi style; with a Communist economy, a Traditionalist socio-cultural outlook, an anti-Revisionist platform, an environmentalist platform, a transparency anti-corruption platform, a Pluralist platform (ensuring peaceful co-existence between all religions, ethnicities, races, irreligious in our country, utilising Syria's model as inspiration), a Left-wing Nationalist platform; with a staunch foreign policy that runs along the lines of anti-Capitalism, anti-Zionism, anti-Fascism, anti-Nazism, anti-Banderites, anti-Uribism, anti-Apartheid (believe it or not, some nations like Morocco or Israel still practise it), anti-McCarthyism, anti-Hedonism, anti-Liberalism, anti-Conservatism, anti-Libertarianism, anti-Mercantilism, anti-Social Darwinism, anti-Imperialism, anti-Colonialism, anti-Ottomanism, anti-Takfirism in addition to anti-Globalisation. Such a Sixth Republic's economics might be a blend of Central Planning (State regulates economy in addition to means of production, organises five-year period guidelines, etcetera), Project Cybersyn, with Localised Planning (revolutionary popular committees run by all peasants & workers; masses own means of production). The State would not touch personal property (your homes, personal belongings, electronics, food, cars, etcetera), however will abolish private property (corporations, conglomerates, private sector financial mobster banks, etcetera). Nationalisation of all domestic in addition to foreign assets would ensue to prioritise people over profits, to utilise these assets for the benefit of the masses by throwing it all into redistribution of wealth, land reforms, socio-economic public programmes, raising living standards, whilst also reduce income inequality altogether.

Come the fuck on.

No, just no.I'm anti-6th Republic and I am for a federal model base on America's.That, or France will just secede from Paris .

[Angleter]

Seems like a good idea on paper, but in reality, it is highly unlikely that it would work.

If I get Russia & co to supply this revolution like they have for the People's Army of Vietnam... the likelihood of its successful realisation disproportionately increases.

Dear Mr. Putin,

You know the whole funding Marine Le Pen's next Presidential bid thing? That's a dead duck - you won't get anywhere with that. No, what you should do instead is spend, like, a trillion rubles on an armed uprising led by me that will drag a nuclear weapons state into civil war and overthrow the elected government of a NATO member that is also one of the five most powerful military nations on Earth. The attraction of a Gaddafist France is surely too attractive for the French people to resist. By the way, my plans for rebellion against France are easily available online.

Best,
Souriya al-Assad.

[Stormaen]

Conservative minority or coalition government of Labour–Liberal Democrats–SNP. Either way, I think we're set for a hung parliament.

Prior to this year, I would've (and indeed have) predicted a Labour majority, albeit a small one. However, with polls giving the SNP ~50% of the vote and ~50 (of 59) Scottish Westminster seats, I think it highly doubtful Labour will be able to win a majority.

Cameron and the Conservatives on the other hand (who are largely riding Cameron's coattails), have managed to deliver on their economic promises (though how much of that was their success or the failure of other nations' success is another debate entirely).

Then there's the UKIP factor. How much of an impact they'll make can't really be predicted. Polls forecast anywhere between 1 and 20+ seats, though I think anything over 4 is a little optimistic.

I think it's safe to say that, although all the old players will be at the table with perhaps newcomers in form of UKIP and the SNP, 2015 will be the least predictable election in a generation.

[Valaran]

Conservative minority or coalition government of Labour–Liberal Democrats–SNP. Either way, I think we're set for a hung parliament.

Prior to this year, I would've (and indeed have) predicted a Labour majority, albeit a small one. However, with polls giving the SNP ~50% of the vote and ~50 (of 59) Scottish Westminster seats, I think it highly doubtful Labour will be able to win a majority.

Cameron and the Conservatives on the other hand (who are largely riding Cameron's coattails), have managed to deliver on their economic promises (though how much of that was their success or the failure of other nations' success is another debate entirely).

Then there's the UKIP factor. How much of an impact they'll make can't really be predicted. Polls forecast anywhere between 1 and 20+ seats, though I think anything over 4 is a little optimistic.

I think it's safe to say that, although all the old players will be at the table with perhaps newcomers in form of UKIP and the SNP, 2015 will be the least predictable election in a generation.

This is a good summary

(can't even find a nitpick I'd disagree with )

[Calimera II]

Germany:
CDU (Christian Democrats)

Wishful thinking. The CSU will be in the government as well if the CDU makes it.

CSU is basically Bavaria's CDU.

[Republica Federal de Catalunya]

In Catalonia i guess that there will be a Big Coalition of catalan parties and members of the society with the goal declaring independence in the next legislature.

Now there are already 87 deputies from 135 form parties that supported the november 9th referendum, they only need 69 to have qualified majority. Spanish nationalist parties will be even more divided with the irruption of PODEMOS.

[Estado Nacional]

It's hard to guess. PT has won this year's elections (the closest in our history) after an incredibly arduous campaign; they are extremely worn out. Our president will receive a failed economy as legacy from her first term. Her party is in trouble. Couple that with a Congress that has taken a clear shift to the right, a rabbid opposition, a corruption scandal of historical proportions, a great loss of trust from her main allies in Congress, PMDB, who intend to launch their own candidate in 2018 and the split in her own party between Dilmaists and Lulaists (most notably, Marta Suplicy, who resigned from the Ministry of Culture due to disagreements with Dilma's economic policies and now intends to defect to PMDB in order to run for mayor of São Paulo).

Dilma's party knows she's incompetent. They know that letting her control the economy like in the last four years is electoral suicide in 2018 — which is why we're seeing pro-market tendencies in the post-electoral period, such as the appointment of Joaquim Levy (who holds a PHD by University of Chicago ) to the Ministry of Finance and raising interest rates.

I don't think it'll work out due to Dilma's presence (who, unlike her party, actually believes she's doing the right thing on the economy). If it were up to her, she'd appoint Mercadante or Tombini to the post, who are just as economically retarded as her. PT has never had to take any significant unpopular economic measures, "austerity" has never been in their dictionary because they received a stable economy when they reached the Presidency and surfed on the Chinese growth and a commodity boom for most of the decade. They'll either have to enter the twenty-first century or risk becoming what PDT — Dilma's former party — is today.

If Joaquim Levy manages to retain his political independence (doubtful) and the economy starts growing again, then PT will possibly win the 2018 elections. If PSDB merges with DEM, as they intend to, they'll get a lot more votes in the Northeast — DEM has been strong there since they were known as UDN, mainly due to "coronelismo", for better or for worse. I think PMDB's disagreements with the government will only grow over time. Eduardo Cunha, their leader in the Chamber of Deputies, and even our vice-president said Dilma thinks she's "omnipotent, omniscient and omnipresent" and that makes it hard for her to listen to PMDB's wishes. If they actually launch their own candidate, I'd go as far as saying that basically everything that's not Coastal Brazil will vote for them. But as I said, it's hard to guess.

[Stormaen]

Conservative minority or coalition government of Labour–Liberal Democrats–SNP. Either way, I think we're set for a hung parliament.

Prior to this year, I would've (and indeed have) predicted a Labour majority, albeit a small one. However, with polls giving the SNP ~50% of the vote and ~50 (of 59) Scottish Westminster seats, I think it highly doubtful Labour will be able to win a majority.

Cameron and the Conservatives on the other hand (who are largely riding Cameron's coattails), have managed to deliver on their economic promises (though how much of that was their success or the failure of other nations' success is another debate entirely).

Then there's the UKIP factor. How much of an impact they'll make can't really be predicted. Polls forecast anywhere between 1 and 20+ seats, though I think anything over 4 is a little optimistic.

I think it's safe to say that, although all the old players will be at the table with perhaps newcomers in form of UKIP and the SNP, 2015 will be the least predictable election in a generation.

This is a good summary

(can't even find a nitpick I'd disagree with )

I really ought to be a political journo!

I forgot to mention the Lib Dems. The latest polls by Lord Ashcroft suggest they're on curse to lose around half of their seats with even Clegg in danger: the same poll puts Labour within 3 points of Clegg's Sheffield–Hallam seat.

So if the Lib Dems do form part of what I term a "ROY coalition" (red–orange–yellow, after Lab-Lib Dem-SNP colours), don't be betting any money on Clegg continuing as deputy prime minister; there's no guarantee he'll be there.

[Valaran]

This is a good summary

(can't even find a nitpick I'd disagree with )

I really ought to be a political journo!

I forgot to mention the Lib Dems. The latest polls by Lord Ashcroft suggest they're on curse to lose around half of their seats with even Clegg in danger: the same poll puts Labour within 3 points of Clegg's Sheffield–Hallam seat.

So if the Lib Dems do form part of what I term a "ROY coalition" (red–orange–yellow, after Lab-Lib Dem-SNP colours), don't be betting any money on Clegg continuing as deputy prime minister; there's no guarantee he'll be there.

Everyone forgets the lib-dems

I did too, and I might even vote for them

Again, a fair assessment, and the best one I can think of at this stage.

[Republica Federal de Catalunya]

On the other hand in Spain I imagine a Great coalition of very weakened conservative PP and socialist PSOE to keep left wing PODEMOS party, a kind of Syrisa, out of the power and a Rise from spanish ultra nationalist parties as such UPyD.

[Insaeldor]

This is a good summary

(can't even find a nitpick I'd disagree with )

I really ought to be a political journo!

I forgot to mention the Lib Dems. The latest polls by Lord Ashcroft suggest they're on curse to lose around half of their seats with even Clegg in danger: the same poll puts Labour within 3 points of Clegg's Sheffield–Hallam seat.

So if the Lib Dems do form part of what I term a "ROY coalition" (red–orange–yellow, after Lab-Lib Dem-SNP colours), don't be betting any money on Clegg continuing as deputy prime minister; there's no guarantee he'll be there.

Ah motherfucker.

I'll post this again

#GetYourShitTogetherClegg.

[Greed and Death]

Too early to predict.
Looks like a divided government with the Republicans controlling the legislature or at least the lower house and the Democrats controlling the white house. However recent spats of disorder and rioting tend to benefit law and order and dog whistle Republicans. So if the Republicans at the state level can keep provoking African Americans to do activities that get them on the news in a negative fashion they will improve their odds of taking the White House.

[East Cambridgeshire]

UKIP-Tory coalition with Farage as Prime Minister. Hopefully.

[European Socialist Republic]

UKIP-Tory coalition with Farage as Prime Minister. Hopefully.

[The Blaatschapen]

PVV-VVD-CDA



or: VVD-D66-PvdA

[Laerod]

Wishful thinking. The CSU will be in the government as well if the CDU makes it.

CSU is basically Bavaria's CDU.

Incorrect. The CSU is a party on the national level that has an agreement with the CDU that the latter runs for office everywhere but Bavaria. To state that it's the Bavarian CDU is a gross misunderstanding of German and Bavarian politics.

[East Cambridgeshire]

UKIP-Tory coalition with Farage as Prime Minister. Hopefully.

[Calimera II]

CSU is basically Bavaria's CDU.

Incorrect. The CSU is a party on the national level that has an agreement with the CDU that the latter runs for office everywhere but Bavaria. To state that it's the Bavarian CDU is a gross misunderstanding of German and Bavarian politics.

It is. It is a different party but it's policies are almost the same, not to mention that Merkel and Horst Seehofer have always worked closely together. The CDU is non-existent in Bavaria, and people who want to vote for the CDU vote for the CSU instead, and why? Because the CSU and the CDU form the CDU/CSU bloc. They are considered sister parties.

[Stormaen]

UKIP-Tory coalition with Farage as Prime Minister. Hopefully.

Never going to happen. Farage is actually trailing behind the Conservative incumbent in polls from South Thanet, the constituency he intends to contest. At most, UKIP will likely win 4 seats. At the moment, the most optimistic polls for the Conservatives give them ~327 seats, enough for a majority (of 4).

For UKIP to have any deciding factors in a possible Con-UKIP government coalitions, they'll need to win somewhere in the region of 20 seats with the Conservatives on around 300. The reasoning is simple enough: 326 seats are required for a majority. However, once you take away any seats Sinn Féin win (due to abstaining from Westminster), that reduced the number of seats required for a workable majority to – depending on SF victories in 2015 – around 320. The closer the Conservatives get to that number, the more likely they'll be able to form a working minority government. If they fall too short, no other party willing to work with them will have the numbers to make up the difference, including UKIP with any number of seats less than around 20.

In reality, a monitory Conservative government would probably turn to the DUP to prop it up, rather than UKIP. Too much bad blood between them, methinks.

[Empire of Vlissingen]

Netherlands a centre right coalittion of PVV, CDA and VVD.

No coalition that includes Geert Wilders can reasonably be called "center-right".

They called this combination centre right in the media during Rutte 1.