Costa Fierro wrote:Alizeria wrote:It's hard to say with New Zealand as we only just had an election, but I honestly suspect that National will scrape in with a fourth term in 2017.
Labour is still going to take a long time to recover from its internal problems, especially given their shocking result in September and I can't imagine Winston Peters will still be around in 2017 which will lose the left a valuable coalition partner (let's face it, Winston won't go into coalition with John Key).
Admittedly Andrew Little looks like a very effective opposition leader, and could well get Labour into the 30% range by 2017 making it a much closer election but unless John Key gets hit by a bus, or unless there is a real scandal which manages to taint him (the 'Dirty Politics' stuff won't because the only people who care are the people who already oppose Mr. Key) I think that they will narrowly gain a fourth term.
I can actually see Labour winning government in 2017, although not by a large majority. It will definitely need to be with the Greens and whichever batshit left-wing party rises in the next three years following the demise of both the Internet Party and Mana. New Zealand Prime Ministers generally do not last beyond three terms, if recent history is to be believed.
Little seems like a best bet for 2017, if he manages to avoid being a complete and utter moron like his predecessors. Time will tell.
I love you Kiwis but wtf were you guys smoking when you let Kim Dotcom in?





