Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:15 amThere's taking political positions and then there's falling for a big fat lie.
There's taking political positions and then there's falling for a big fat lie.
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The GOP will win the Senate and Keep the House
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Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:15 amThere's taking political positions and then there's falling for a big fat lie.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:15 am
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:16 amPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:18 amNeither Conservatism nor Liberalism are based on "a big fat lie". They are just different and equally valid political views.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:18 amPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:23 am
Democrats need to better target this demographic. Working class whites vote in their own worst interest.
Unfortunately, it's because they're driven away by social liberalism -- but I think that if Democrats propose things like expanded Social Security, truly universal healthcare, more social benefits, etc - they might be able to win them back. And when they finally see that the GOP is the complete antithesis, they'll come back to the Democrats. Social liberalism needs to remain at the forefront, but expansion of the welfare state (with universalism) needs to become apart of the agenda, to attract not just educated middle class groups and minority groups, but to attract more white working class people. And then, when the GOP opposes all of those things - that would directly benefit many of those people - it'll be unlikely that the white working class will go back to the GOP.
Targeting and keeping the white working class vote could be a huge boost for the Democrats, and shore up another era of continuous Democrat congressional majorities. Remember when Democrats held the house for 40 years straight, with no interruptions?
Democrats should work on solidifying the 'big tent' concept. Relying solely on demographics changes could end up backfiring. (A common thing is that the change in US racial demographics will benefit Democrats - which is true, but relying only on that could be shaky.) The big tent concept, as well as current minority support, combined with a strong share of the white vote are all important. If Democrats can win over not just minorities and socially liberal middle class whites, but also white working class votes, they'll have a majority of the white vote and will be able to win almost every election.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:25 amArlenton wrote:Dragomerian Islands wrote:Ok, know I see what you are doing. You are now throwing a fit because I provided evidence that could not be refuted by you and your only response is by quoting polls that are inaccurate to begin with.
Also, your link goes to a forum. No actual trends could be found.
You know what, I give up. Ive tried to show you the polls, ive tried explaining the current electoral trends in the southern Appalachian region, I backed everything I said up with sources & stats and I can't even convince you that the most Republican states are red states!
But when results of this election come in, matching the nearly universally accepted polls, trends and statistics, and the Republicans make gains, don't take it too hard, understanding American electoral politics is very difficult. If you really want to make a difference and prove me wrong, go out and vote, donate money to the Democratic candidates, or even go campaign for them in the competitive states (though i notice you don't know which states are and are not competitive)
And if you want to make a bet on this election's results im all in
Polls are not stats, they are opinions. And polls like these do not even accurately represent the opinion of the actual voters.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:27 amAtlanticatia wrote:(Image)
Democrats need to better target this demographic. Working class whites vote in their own worst interest.
Unfortunately, it's because they're driven away by social liberalism -- but I think that if Democrats propose things like expanded Social Security, truly universal healthcare, more social benefits, etc - they might be able to win them back. And when they finally see that the GOP is the complete antithesis, they'll come back to the Democrats. Social liberalism needs to remain at the forefront, but expansion of the welfare state (with universalism) needs to become apart of the agenda, to attract not just educated middle class groups and minority groups, but to attract more white working class people. And then, when the GOP opposes all of those things - that would directly benefit many of those people - it'll be unlikely that the white working class will go back to the GOP.
Targeting and keeping the white working class vote could be a huge boost for the Democrats, and shore up another era of continuous Democrat congressional majorities. Remember when Democrats held the house for 40 years straight, with no interruptions?
Democrats should work on solidifying the 'big tent' concept. Relying solely on demographics changes could end up backfiring. (A common thing is that the change in US racial demographics will benefit Democrats - which is true, but relying only on that could be shaky.) The big tent concept, as well as current minority support, combined with a strong share of the white vote are all important. If Democrats can win over not just minorities and socially liberal middle class whites, but also white working class votes, they'll have a majority of the white vote and will be able to win almost every election.
Whoever has the white working class on their side usually controls congress.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:28 amDragomerian Islands wrote:Arlenton wrote:
You know what, I give up. Ive tried to show you the polls, ive tried explaining the current electoral trends in the southern Appalachian region, I backed everything I said up with sources & stats and I can't even convince you that the most Republican states are red states!
But when results of this election come in, matching the nearly universally accepted polls, trends and statistics, and the Republicans make gains, don't take it too hard, understanding American electoral politics is very difficult. If you really want to make a difference and prove me wrong, go out and vote, donate money to the Democratic candidates, or even go campaign for them in the competitive states (though i notice you don't know which states are and are not competitive)
And if you want to make a bet on this election's results im all in
Polls are not stats, they are opinions. And polls like these do not even accurately represent the opinion of the actual voters.
Screw the arguments, do you want to make a bet or nah?
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:29 amI'm not talking about that.
I'm talking about the GOP.
They don't represent ALL conservatives, however misguided they are.
The GOP is a big fat lie.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:30 amThe Rich Port wrote:Murkwood wrote:Neither Conservatism nor Liberalism are based on "a big fat lie". They are just different and equally valid political views.
I'm not talking about that.
I'm talking about the GOP.
They don't represent ALL conservatives, however misguided they are.
The GOP is a big fat lie.
The Democratic Party is a big fat lie.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:31 amDragomerian Islands wrote:Arlenton wrote:
You know what, I give up. Ive tried to show you the polls, ive tried explaining the current electoral trends in the southern Appalachian region, I backed everything I said up with sources & stats and I can't even convince you that the most Republican states are red states!
But when results of this election come in, matching the nearly universally accepted polls, trends and statistics, and the Republicans make gains, don't take it too hard, understanding American electoral politics is very difficult. If you really want to make a difference and prove me wrong, go out and vote, donate money to the Democratic candidates, or even go campaign for them in the competitive states (though i notice you don't know which states are and are not competitive)
And if you want to make a bet on this election's results im all in
Polls are not stats, they are opinions. And polls like these do not even accurately represent the opinion of the actual voters.
Speaking as one of those 'actual voters' I can tell you right now that Montana isn't electing a Democrat to the Senate and highly unlikely to do so for the House either, and the polls reflecting this do a rather good job of reflecting conditions on the grounds (Amanda Curtis being roughly as popular as cow-chips in comparison to Daines).
Your belief in opposition to this certainty and likelihood, respectively, is pure fantasy in the former case and blind guessing in the other.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:32 amArlenton wrote:Atlanticatia wrote:(Image)
Democrats need to better target this demographic. Working class whites vote in their own worst interest.
Unfortunately, it's because they're driven away by social liberalism -- but I think that if Democrats propose things like expanded Social Security, truly universal healthcare, more social benefits, etc - they might be able to win them back. And when they finally see that the GOP is the complete antithesis, they'll come back to the Democrats. Social liberalism needs to remain at the forefront, but expansion of the welfare state (with universalism) needs to become apart of the agenda, to attract not just educated middle class groups and minority groups, but to attract more white working class people. And then, when the GOP opposes all of those things - that would directly benefit many of those people - it'll be unlikely that the white working class will go back to the GOP.
Targeting and keeping the white working class vote could be a huge boost for the Democrats, and shore up another era of continuous Democrat congressional majorities. Remember when Democrats held the house for 40 years straight, with no interruptions?
Democrats should work on solidifying the 'big tent' concept. Relying solely on demographics changes could end up backfiring. (A common thing is that the change in US racial demographics will benefit Democrats - which is true, but relying only on that could be shaky.) The big tent concept, as well as current minority support, combined with a strong share of the white vote are all important. If Democrats can win over not just minorities and socially liberal middle class whites, but also white working class votes, they'll have a majority of the white vote and will be able to win almost every election.
Whoever has the white working class on their side usually controls congress.
Exactly. Which was the case during the 40 years Democrats held the majority in the house.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:36 amOccupied Deutschland wrote:Dragomerian Islands wrote:Polls are not stats, they are opinions. And polls like these do not even accurately represent the opinion of the actual voters.
Speaking as one of those 'actual voters' I can tell you right now that Montana isn't electing a Democrat to the Senate and highly unlikely to do so for the House either, and the polls reflecting this do a rather good job of reflecting conditions on the grounds (Amanda Curtis being roughly as popular as cow-chips in comparison to Daines).
Your belief in opposition to this certainty and likelihood, respectively, is pure fantasy in the former case and blind guessing in the other.
Polls point to a Republican win in Montana ranging from 53% to 55%
Dragomerian Islands prediction for Montana is a Democratic win, with the GOP having at most 25% of the total vote.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:37 am... In what ways, exactly?
There's already discussion that the GOP doesn't represent all conservatives.
And the GOP has a solid track record of playing fast and loose with the truth.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:40 amPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:40 amWell the Democratic Party doesn't represent all liberals.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:41 amPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:44 amAnd? At least they're not contemptibly misrepresentative.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:46 amYou didn't pay much attention to all their statements about 'America overstepping its bounds in the war on terror' and then notice them proceed to stepping further in prosecuting that same war, did you?
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:47 amHow about if you win I will have to change my flag & sig to whatever you want me to for a month or something, and vice versa.
I bet that the GOP will have a net gain of seats in the senate.
You bet the Democrats will have a net gain of seats in the senate.
If neither party has a net gain we tie and nothing happens.
Does this sound like something you will be willing to take part in?
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:49 amPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:51 amArlenton wrote:But seriously, does anyone want to bet on the Democrats taking the house?
Not before 2022.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:53 amI'll tell you what, I hope you're right but I very much suspect that Election Night is going to be quite long and sad for you.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:02 pm