Harry Reid has been waxing optimistic when asked about the future of Democrats’ hold on the U.S. Senate. In an interview with a local television station last week, the Senate majority leader said it is unlikely that Republicans will gain the six seats necessary to gain control of the upper chamber.
“It'd be very, very hard for them to do that,” he said.
Netting six Senate seats is a challenge, especially since part of that equation would require Republicans to retain their own competitive seats in places like Georgia and Kentucky. But Republicans believe that the stars, moons, and planets are all aligning for just such a changing tide this November.
For one thing, the president's party has historically struggled in the officeholder’s sixth year. What’s more, Democrats have to defend 21 of the 36 seats up for re-election this time, and of the nine most competitive races, seven are currently held by Democrats. Indeed, the top challenge for the party this cycle is defending seats in several states President Obama lost in 2012.
On the other hand, Republicans historically have a difficult time knocking off Democratic incumbents. And this cycle, several vulnerable Democrats have the advantage of family legacies that they hope will shield them against the president’s unpopularity and the changing politics of their states. Indeed, Democratic incumbents have shown resiliency in the polls so far.
But that advantage may be fleeting. While no Republican challenger is leading an incumbent by a significant margin, no Democratic incumbent in a difficult race is polling above 50 percent -- a threshold that has come to signal vulnerability. Republicans view this trend as a sign of their strength heading into Labor Day weekend, after which the campaigns traditionally ramp up and constituents start to pay closer attention to the candidates.
The momentum appears to be on the Republicans’ side, as Obama’s approval rating is low, dissatisfaction with Washington is high, incumbents are showing signs of weakness, and the midterm dynamics and climate are favorable.
Three Democratic-held states already appear to be in the Republicans’ column: Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. If the GOP can hang on to Georgia and Kentucky, they would need to pick up just three more to win the majority. And there are a few different pathways that get them there.
One of the most recent examples came in Alaska last week, when Republicans nominated establishment-favored Dan Sullivan to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. The incumbent is leading by 4.6 percentage points in the RCP average, but analysts expect the race to tighten as Sullivan’s general election campaign revs up.
In Colorado, Republican Rep. Cory Gardner cleared what could have been a troublesome GOP field, and is now just 2.5 percentage points behind Democratic Sen. Mark Udall despite months of negative ads targeting him. The Colorado race figures to be one of the closest in the country, and will keep both Republicans and Democrats on their toes up through election night. Though the state isn’t a must-win for Republicans’ hopes of claiming the majority, it will serve as an important race for the party in both the midterm and the presidential contest two years from now. President Obama won there in 2008 and 2012, and a GOP victory in 2014 could have an impact on 2016.
Republicans’ best hopes rest in states Mitt Romney won in 2012: Arkansas, North Carolina, Alaska and Louisiana.
Races in the first two are virtually tied. In Louisiana, Mary Landrieu leads the Republican field by several points, but she falls behind Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy by one point in December runoff matchups (the likely scenario if no one clears the 50 percent mark on Nov. 4). Both Landrieu and Mark Pryor in Arkansas have long-standing, well-respected legacies in their states (both have featured their popular fathers in ads), and could well hold their ground despite the unfavorable climate. Nonetheless, they still remain among the most vulnerable senators, and their Republican opponents are financially competitive.
"For the last five months, Democrats have been saying that their ‘legacy candidates’ provide an advantage, but the data shows it’s irrelevant,” said Brad Dayspring, the spokesman for the NRSC. “If it were true, Landrieu, Begich, Udall, and Pryor would be at or above 50 percent.”
Although Mitch McConnell doesn’t come from a famous Kentucky political family, it could be argued that under that logic, he is also vulnerable. The RCP average shows him leading Alison Lundergan Grimes by just three percentage points, with 47.6 percent of the support. But Republicans could win red state seats in Kentucky and Georgia and still fail to claim the majority. Their chances increase, however, if they make gains in Colorado, or Iowa, or North Carolina or even Michigan. While New Hampshire might be more of a long shot for Republicans compared to other states, a narrowing of that race over the next several weeks could signal trouble for Democrats elsewhere, including in normally dependable Democratic strongholds of Oregon and Minnesota. Democrat Jeanne Shaheen began airing her first negative ad in the Granite State this week.
Lawmakers return from recess in September, when those issues might play out more vividly.
Democrats, meanwhile, will likely reprise legislation on the minimum wage and pay equity, designed to turn out supporters on Nov. 4. Republicans don’t seem to be worried about those issues, and argue that there is little major legislation or an overarching issue to which Democratic incumbents can cling.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/08/28/why_republicans_will_take_the_senate_123788.html#ixzz3G4oGXjWj
Happy Days are here again. According to most polling organizations, the GOP is favored to win control of the Senate by a healthy margin. Although this might only last 2 years, 2016 is likely to shake up both chambers, still....The GOP is going to win. The users of NS leans to the left....a lot....sometimes bordering on the socialistic. So I can't imagine how this must feel for the more liberal American users, knowing that any hopes you might have had for the congress....gone *poof*. I'm not going to try to be neutral, I'm happy the GOP is going to win. I'm not a conservative, but I feel like we'd all be better off with the GOP controlling both houses. Maybe, just maybe....actual legislation will be passed. Like job saving, bank busting, tax cutting legislation. I'm looking forward to the next 2 years. But I also acknowledge this will be bad on some fronts. Alternative energy, civil liberties and civil rights will probably suffer, along with entitlement programs....but that's just the way it is.
I'm predicting GOP 52/ Dem 48
Side note, I can't stand Mitch McConnell and I wish he was gone from the Senate. He can't be the senate leader. At the same time, after watching the Kentucky debates, Grimes is terrible. Her fake politician answers, the lame ads, the empty political rhetoric. She might be worse than Mitch McConnell, I want him gone...but I don't want her either. Anybody else?
But what does NSG think? Am I wrong, will the Democrats hold on to the senate? Is a GOP majority a bad thing? What will a GOP Majority lead too? Will Obama-care be repealed? Could Obama be impeached then convicted? If the GOP can win both chambers, what does that mean for 2016? President Paul or President Christie or perhaps.....President Bush? OPINIONS! OPINIONS!
