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The GOP will win the Senate and Keep the House

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How would you prefer the 114th congress be set up? How will it be?

GOP House/GOP Senate
102
32%
GOP House/ Dem Senate (current)
24
8%
Dem House/ Dem Senate
143
45%
Dem House/ GOP Senate
7
2%
Other?
41
13%
 
Total votes : 317

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The Rich Port
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Posts: 32900
Founded: Jul 29, 2008
Father Knows Best State

Postby The Rich Port » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:15 am

Murkwood wrote:
The Rich Port wrote:
They're ignorant for many reasons, mainly their own stupidity and misinformation on the part of Republicans.

Or, you know, it's possible for people to not be ignorant and still come to different political conclusions.


There's taking political positions and then there's falling for a big fat lie.
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Arlenton
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Posts: 5397
Founded: Dec 16, 2012
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Arlenton » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:15 am

Kelinfort wrote:
Arlenton wrote:lmao, that's like taking candy from a baby! :rofl:
Or should I say, taking money from a very overconfident liberal!

You've never talked to Blazed, have you?

No, who is Blazed?

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Kelinfort
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Posts: 16423
Founded: Nov 10, 2013
Ex-Nation

Postby Kelinfort » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:16 am

Arlenton wrote:
Kelinfort wrote:You've never talked to Blazed, have you?

No, who is Blazed?

Blazedtown? The guy in the previous post you wee commenting on before Murk?

He's not what you'd call a liberal. Well, actually, his views are eclectic.

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Murkwood
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 7819
Founded: Apr 05, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Murkwood » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:18 am

The Rich Port wrote:
Murkwood wrote:Or, you know, it's possible for people to not be ignorant and still come to different political conclusions.


There's taking political positions and then there's falling for a big fat lie.

Neither Conservatism nor Liberalism are based on "a big fat lie". They are just different and equally valid political views.
Degenerate Heart of HetRio wrote:Murkwood, I'm surprised you're not an anti-Semite and don't mind most LGBT rights because boy, aren't you a constellation of the worst opinions to have about everything? o_o

Benuty wrote:I suppose Ken Ham, and the league of Republican-Neocolonialist-Zionist Catholics will not be pleased.

Soldati senza confini wrote:Did I just try to rationalize Murkwood's logic? Please shoot me.

Catholicism has the fullness of the splendor of truth: The Bible and the Church Fathers agree!

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Arlenton
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Posts: 5397
Founded: Dec 16, 2012
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Arlenton » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:18 am

Kelinfort wrote:
Arlenton wrote:No, who is Blazed?

Blazedtown? The guy in the previous post you wee commenting on before Murk?

He's not what you'd call a liberal. Well, actually, his views are eclectic.

Oh, well then I cant say I have.
But I can say that Democrats taking the house is not gunna happen.
Last edited by Arlenton on Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Atlanticatia
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Founded: Mar 01, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Atlanticatia » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:23 am

Image

Democrats need to better target this demographic. Working class whites vote in their own worst interest.

Unfortunately, it's because they're driven away by social liberalism -- but I think that if Democrats propose things like expanded Social Security, truly universal healthcare, more social benefits, etc - they might be able to win them back. And when they finally see that the GOP is the complete antithesis, they'll come back to the Democrats. Social liberalism needs to remain at the forefront, but expansion of the welfare state (with universalism) needs to become apart of the agenda, to attract not just educated middle class groups and minority groups, but to attract more white working class people. And then, when the GOP opposes all of those things - that would directly benefit many of those people - it'll be unlikely that the white working class will go back to the GOP.

Targeting and keeping the white working class vote could be a huge boost for the Democrats, and shore up another era of continuous Democrat congressional majorities. Remember when Democrats held the house for 40 years straight, with no interruptions?

Democrats should work on solidifying the 'big tent' concept. Relying solely on demographics changes could end up backfiring. (A common thing is that the change in US racial demographics will benefit Democrats - which is true, but relying only on that could be shaky.) The big tent concept, as well as current minority support, combined with a strong share of the white vote are all important. If Democrats can win over not just minorities and socially liberal middle class whites, but also white working class votes, they'll have a majority of the white vote and will be able to win almost every election.
Last edited by Atlanticatia on Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:25 am, edited 2 times in total.
Economic Left/Right: -5.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.95

Pros: social democracy, LGBT+ rights, pro-choice, free education and health care, environmentalism, Nordic model, secularism, welfare state, multiculturalism
Cons: social conservatism, neoliberalism, hate speech, racism, sexism, 'right-to-work' laws, religious fundamentalism
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Dragomerian Islands
Minister
 
Posts: 2710
Founded: Aug 26, 2013
Capitalist Paradise

Postby Dragomerian Islands » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:25 am

Arlenton wrote:
Dragomerian Islands wrote:Ok, know I see what you are doing. You are now throwing a fit because I provided evidence that could not be refuted by you and your only response is by quoting polls that are inaccurate to begin with.


Also, your link goes to a forum. No actual trends could be found.

:eyebrow:
You know what, I give up. Ive tried to show you the polls, ive tried explaining the current electoral trends in the southern Appalachian region, I backed everything I said up with sources & stats and I can't even convince you that the most Republican states are red states!

But when results of this election come in, matching the nearly universally accepted polls, trends and statistics, and the Republicans make gains, don't take it too hard, understanding American electoral politics is very difficult. If you really want to make a difference and prove me wrong, go out and vote, donate money to the Democratic candidates, or even go campaign for them in the competitive states (though i notice you don't know which states are and are not competitive)

And if you want to make a bet on this election's results im all in :p

Polls are not stats, they are opinions. And polls like these do not even accurately represent the opinion of the actual voters.
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Arlenton
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5397
Founded: Dec 16, 2012
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Arlenton » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:27 am

Atlanticatia wrote:(Image)

Democrats need to better target this demographic. Working class whites vote in their own worst interest.

Unfortunately, it's because they're driven away by social liberalism -- but I think that if Democrats propose things like expanded Social Security, truly universal healthcare, more social benefits, etc - they might be able to win them back. And when they finally see that the GOP is the complete antithesis, they'll come back to the Democrats. Social liberalism needs to remain at the forefront, but expansion of the welfare state (with universalism) needs to become apart of the agenda, to attract not just educated middle class groups and minority groups, but to attract more white working class people. And then, when the GOP opposes all of those things - that would directly benefit many of those people - it'll be unlikely that the white working class will go back to the GOP.

Targeting and keeping the white working class vote could be a huge boost for the Democrats, and shore up another era of continuous Democrat congressional majorities. Remember when Democrats held the house for 40 years straight, with no interruptions?
Democrats should work on solidifying the 'big tent' concept. Relying solely on demographics changes could end up backfiring. (A common thing is that the change in US racial demographics will benefit Democrats - which is true, but relying only on that could be shaky.) The big tent concept, as well as current minority support, combined with a strong share of the white vote are all important. If Democrats can win over not just minorities and socially liberal middle class whites, but also white working class votes, they'll have a majority of the white vote and will be able to win almost every election.

Whoever has the white working class on their side usually controls congress.
Last edited by Arlenton on Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Arlenton
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5397
Founded: Dec 16, 2012
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Arlenton » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:28 am

Dragomerian Islands wrote:
Arlenton wrote: :eyebrow:
You know what, I give up. Ive tried to show you the polls, ive tried explaining the current electoral trends in the southern Appalachian region, I backed everything I said up with sources & stats and I can't even convince you that the most Republican states are red states!

But when results of this election come in, matching the nearly universally accepted polls, trends and statistics, and the Republicans make gains, don't take it too hard, understanding American electoral politics is very difficult. If you really want to make a difference and prove me wrong, go out and vote, donate money to the Democratic candidates, or even go campaign for them in the competitive states (though i notice you don't know which states are and are not competitive)

And if you want to make a bet on this election's results im all in :p

Polls are not stats, they are opinions. And polls like these do not even accurately represent the opinion of the actual voters.

Screw the arguments, do you want to make a bet or nah?

User avatar
The Rich Port
Post Czar
 
Posts: 32900
Founded: Jul 29, 2008
Father Knows Best State

Postby The Rich Port » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:29 am

Murkwood wrote:
The Rich Port wrote:
There's taking political positions and then there's falling for a big fat lie.

Neither Conservatism nor Liberalism are based on "a big fat lie". They are just different and equally valid political views.


I'm not talking about that.

I'm talking about the GOP.

They don't represent ALL conservatives, however misguided they are.

The GOP is a big fat lie.
LAUGH, AND GROW FAT
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Economic Report | Regional Forum | Political Compass
CAPINTERN | OMSA | OZZY | PACT | APAC
Summary | Vanguard | The Book Of Sue
THE BILLION BIT BRONY
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User avatar
Arlenton
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5397
Founded: Dec 16, 2012
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Arlenton » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:30 am

The Rich Port wrote:
Murkwood wrote:Neither Conservatism nor Liberalism are based on "a big fat lie". They are just different and equally valid political views.


I'm not talking about that.

I'm talking about the GOP.

They don't represent ALL conservatives, however misguided they are.

The GOP is a big fat lie.

The Democratic Party is a big fat lie.

User avatar
Occupied Deutschland
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 18790
Founded: Oct 01, 2010
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Occupied Deutschland » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:31 am

Dragomerian Islands wrote:
Arlenton wrote: :eyebrow:
You know what, I give up. Ive tried to show you the polls, ive tried explaining the current electoral trends in the southern Appalachian region, I backed everything I said up with sources & stats and I can't even convince you that the most Republican states are red states!

But when results of this election come in, matching the nearly universally accepted polls, trends and statistics, and the Republicans make gains, don't take it too hard, understanding American electoral politics is very difficult. If you really want to make a difference and prove me wrong, go out and vote, donate money to the Democratic candidates, or even go campaign for them in the competitive states (though i notice you don't know which states are and are not competitive)

And if you want to make a bet on this election's results im all in :p

Polls are not stats, they are opinions. And polls like these do not even accurately represent the opinion of the actual voters.

Speaking as one of those 'actual voters' I can tell you right now that Montana isn't electing a Democrat to the Senate and highly unlikely to do so for the House either, and the polls reflecting this do a rather good job of reflecting conditions on the grounds (Amanda Curtis being roughly as popular as cow-chips in comparison to Daines).
Your belief in opposition to this certainty and likelihood, respectively, is pure fantasy in the former case and blind guessing in the other.
I'm General Patton.
Even those who are gone are with us as we go on.

Been busy lately--not around much.

User avatar
Atlanticatia
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5973
Founded: Mar 01, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Atlanticatia » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:32 am

Arlenton wrote:
Atlanticatia wrote:(Image)

Democrats need to better target this demographic. Working class whites vote in their own worst interest.

Unfortunately, it's because they're driven away by social liberalism -- but I think that if Democrats propose things like expanded Social Security, truly universal healthcare, more social benefits, etc - they might be able to win them back. And when they finally see that the GOP is the complete antithesis, they'll come back to the Democrats. Social liberalism needs to remain at the forefront, but expansion of the welfare state (with universalism) needs to become apart of the agenda, to attract not just educated middle class groups and minority groups, but to attract more white working class people. And then, when the GOP opposes all of those things - that would directly benefit many of those people - it'll be unlikely that the white working class will go back to the GOP.

Targeting and keeping the white working class vote could be a huge boost for the Democrats, and shore up another era of continuous Democrat congressional majorities. Remember when Democrats held the house for 40 years straight, with no interruptions?
Democrats should work on solidifying the 'big tent' concept. Relying solely on demographics changes could end up backfiring. (A common thing is that the change in US racial demographics will benefit Democrats - which is true, but relying only on that could be shaky.) The big tent concept, as well as current minority support, combined with a strong share of the white vote are all important. If Democrats can win over not just minorities and socially liberal middle class whites, but also white working class votes, they'll have a majority of the white vote and will be able to win almost every election.

Whoever has the white working class on their side usually controls congress.


Exactly. Which was the case during the 40 years Democrats held the majority in the house.
Economic Left/Right: -5.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.95

Pros: social democracy, LGBT+ rights, pro-choice, free education and health care, environmentalism, Nordic model, secularism, welfare state, multiculturalism
Cons: social conservatism, neoliberalism, hate speech, racism, sexism, 'right-to-work' laws, religious fundamentalism
i'm a dual american-new zealander previously lived in the northeast US, now living in new zealand. university student.
Social Democrat and Progressive.
Hanna Nilsen, Leader of the SDP. Equality, Prosperity, and Opportunity: The Social Democratic Party

User avatar
Arlenton
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5397
Founded: Dec 16, 2012
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Arlenton » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:36 am

Occupied Deutschland wrote:
Dragomerian Islands wrote:Polls are not stats, they are opinions. And polls like these do not even accurately represent the opinion of the actual voters.

Speaking as one of those 'actual voters' I can tell you right now that Montana isn't electing a Democrat to the Senate and highly unlikely to do so for the House either, and the polls reflecting this do a rather good job of reflecting conditions on the grounds (Amanda Curtis being roughly as popular as cow-chips in comparison to Daines).
Your belief in opposition to this certainty and likelihood, respectively, is pure fantasy in the former case and blind guessing in the other.

Polls point to a Republican win in Montana ranging from 53% to 55%
Dragomerian Islands prediction for Montana is a Democratic win, with the GOP having at most 25% of the total vote. :lol2:

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The Rich Port
Post Czar
 
Posts: 32900
Founded: Jul 29, 2008
Father Knows Best State

Postby The Rich Port » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:37 am

Arlenton wrote:
The Rich Port wrote:
I'm not talking about that.

I'm talking about the GOP.

They don't represent ALL conservatives, however misguided they are.

The GOP is a big fat lie.

The Democratic Party is a big fat lie.


... In what ways, exactly?

There's already discussion that the GOP doesn't represent all conservatives.

And the GOP has a solid track record of playing fast and loose with the truth.
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Dragomerian Islands
Minister
 
Posts: 2710
Founded: Aug 26, 2013
Capitalist Paradise

Postby Dragomerian Islands » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:40 am

Arlenton wrote:
Dragomerian Islands wrote:Polls are not stats, they are opinions. And polls like these do not even accurately represent the opinion of the actual voters.

Screw the arguments, do you want to make a bet or nah?

I will win, so what is the point?
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Arlenton
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Posts: 5397
Founded: Dec 16, 2012
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Arlenton » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:40 am

The Rich Port wrote:
Arlenton wrote:The Democratic Party is a big fat lie.


... In what ways, exactly?

There's already discussion that the GOP doesn't represent all conservatives.


And the GOP has a solid track record of playing fast and loose with the truth.

Well the Democratic Party doesn't represent all liberals.
Last edited by Arlenton on Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:41 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Arlenton
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5397
Founded: Dec 16, 2012
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Arlenton » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:41 am

Dragomerian Islands wrote:
Arlenton wrote:Screw the arguments, do you want to make a bet or nah?

I will win, so what is the point?

Ok what do you want to bet?

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The Rich Port
Post Czar
 
Posts: 32900
Founded: Jul 29, 2008
Father Knows Best State

Postby The Rich Port » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:44 am

Arlenton wrote:
The Rich Port wrote:
... In what ways, exactly?

There's already discussion that the GOP doesn't represent all conservatives.


And the GOP has a solid track record of playing fast and loose with the truth.

Well the Democratic Party doesn't represent all liberals.


And? At least they're not contemptibly misrepresentative.
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Occupied Deutschland
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 18790
Founded: Oct 01, 2010
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Occupied Deutschland » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:46 am

The Rich Port wrote:
Arlenton wrote:Well the Democratic Party doesn't represent all liberals.


And? At least they're not contemptibly misrepresentative.

You didn't pay much attention to all their statements about 'America overstepping its bounds in the war on terror' and then notice them proceed to stepping further in prosecuting that same war, did you?
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Arlenton
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5397
Founded: Dec 16, 2012
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Arlenton » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:47 am

Arlenton wrote:
Dragomerian Islands wrote:I will win, so what is the point?

Ok what do you want to bet?

How about if you win I will have to change my flag & sig to whatever you want me to for a month or something, and vice versa.

I bet that the GOP will have a net gain of seats in the senate.
You bet the Democrats will have a net gain of seats in the senate.
If neither party has a net gain we tie and nothing happens.

Does this sound like something you will be willing to take part in?

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Dragomerian Islands
Minister
 
Posts: 2710
Founded: Aug 26, 2013
Capitalist Paradise

Postby Dragomerian Islands » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:49 am

Arlenton wrote:
Dragomerian Islands wrote:I will win, so what is the point?

Ok what do you want to bet?

How about my 2014 Ferrari F12berlinetta (worth about $320,000).

-A bit of an excessive bet, but I know I am right, so what is the harm?
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Myrensis
Senator
 
Posts: 3653
Founded: Oct 05, 2010
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Myrensis » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:51 am

Arlenton wrote:But seriously, does anyone want to bet on the Democrats taking the house?


Not before 2022.

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Farnhamia
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Posts: 90959
Founded: Jun 20, 2006
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Farnhamia » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:53 am

Dragomerian Islands wrote:
Arlenton wrote:Ok what do you want to bet?

How about my 2014 Ferrari F12berlinetta (worth about $320,000).

-A bit of an excessive bet, but I know I am right, so what is the harm?

I'll tell you what, I hope you're right but I very much suspect that Election Night is going to be quite long and sad for you.
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Arlenton
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Posts: 5397
Founded: Dec 16, 2012
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Arlenton » Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:02 pm

Dragomerian Islands wrote:
Arlenton wrote:Ok what do you want to bet?

How about my 2014 Ferrari F12berlinetta (worth about $320,000).

-A bit of an excessive bet, but I know I am right, so what is the harm?

Sounds good to me.

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