Constantinopolis wrote:Valkalan wrote:More likely a "modern" USSR would be more repressive than it was in the 1980s. Consider the reasons for its disintegration. The peoples of the many former Soviet republics voted to become independent. If the USSR would have chosen to remained unified, it would have to deal with secessionist movements in the manner that is familiar to them, repression.
But the Soviet Union was getting gradually less repressive for the last several decades of its existence, and yet, until Gorbachev, it never had a serious problem with secessionist movements. Gorbachev lifted too many restrictions too quickly. A gradual easing of repression, combined with other improvements, could have easily led to a situation where the various SSRs demanded more autonomy but not outright independence.Valkalan wrote:In the end, the modern soviet state would likely be similar to China both in political modus operandi and economic management.
Yes, I agree that this was a strong possibility, but then the USSR wouldn't have the Soviet system any more. It would have a different kind of system - namely Chinese-style capitalism.
So, for the purpose of the exercise in this thread, we are assuming that the Soviet Union lasted until 2014 and did NOT switch to an entirely different kind of economic system, like China did.
Consider the case of Scottish independence that is to be decided later this month. The UK is a prosperous nation with extensive liberties, yet there exist those who desire independence. What makes you think that the people of the USSR, a nation that lacked prosperity or any great personal liberty, would want to remain a part of that cesspool? As for the question of economic management, I gave the USSR the benefit of the doubt that they would have sought a more market-oriented model, especially given the perestroika reforms. However seeing as how wish to image that the 21th century USSR had retained a command economy, perhaps you should examine other extant command economies. Cuba and North Korea will suffice.



