Ukraine Megathread: Crimea River Build a Bridge, Get Over It

[Dalcaria]

Well, they did kidnap an Estonian intelligence officer just this morning.

That officer is from a video game!

No no no, he was real, but it was Ukrainian jets that kidnapped him!

[Allanea]

Why was an Estonian military officer in Russia?

[Dalcaria]

They won't fuck around up there. NATO would get extremely twitchy.

Well, they did kidnap an Estonian intelligence officer just this morning.

Can we just start a WW3 mega thread now already? Russia and China are going out of their way to tick off so many people, I just don't think we can dedicate a megathread to every underhanded thing they do, cause we'd end up with a lot!

[Dalcaria]

Why was an Estonian military officer in Russia?

According to BBC he was in Estonia, at a border checkpoint. Unless new information has arisen that says that isn't where he was kidnapped, then I will ask, when has Estonia's side of the border started to belong to Russia?

Edit: Ah, correction. The kidnapping (it sounds like) occurred within Estonia's borders, whereas the "spying" the Russians are saying happened in Russia. So basically, they can't prove he was spying on them and they didn't detain him within the country, so they had to kidnap him instead to get what they want, which as far as I know is illegal, even if he was supposedly spying. So really, it doesn't matter what he was doing in Russia, why was he allowed to cross the border in or out of the country if he was suspected of a crime?

[Costa Fierro]

Why was an Estonian military officer in Russia?

He wasn't. Russian border police have (allegedly) said that the recorded an illegal crossing by Russian agents into Estonia and then back into Russia.

Edit: The officer in question was part of an internal security organization involved with fighting cross border smuggling. The area he was abducted from was one of the regions in Estonia where border security was light and presumably he was onto something when the Russians wandered in and snatched him.

Basically it's got to the stage where no one believes Russia's bullshit anymore. They claim he was on their side of the border but they also deny sending tanks and equipment over the border as well as denied (underlined for the benefit of people who cannot read) any involvement in Crimea.

[Laerod]

Just wait until the Baltics get passive-aggressive letters from Russia about ethnic Russians. I wouldn't be surprised.

They won't fuck around up there. NATO would get extremely twitchy.

Sure they will. Putin's MO thus far has been to push his bullshit as far as he can before meeting any resistance and then digging in. He's going to test the waters in the Baltic states now that he's succeeded in breaking numerous treaties with only sanctions to show for it.

[Organized States]

Good.

[Lyttenburg]

Sure they will. Putin's MO thus far has been to push his bullshit as far as he can before meeting any resistance and then digging in. He's going to test the waters in the Baltic states now that he's succeeded in breaking numerous treaties with only sanctions to show for it.

Wanna bet? ASB already lost one to me.

[Laerod]

Sure they will. Putin's MO thus far has been to push his bullshit as far as he can before meeting any resistance and then digging in. He's going to test the waters in the Baltic states now that he's succeeded in breaking numerous treaties with only sanctions to show for it.

Wanna bet? ASB already lost one to me.

Sure I do.

*scrolls up to the posts about Russians abducting Estonian security*

I won! =D

[Lyttenburg]

Wanna bet? ASB already lost one to me.

Sure I do.

*scrolls up to the posts about Russians abducting Estonian security*

I won! =D

No you didn't. The supposed "kidnapping" a) Are even not close to "testing the waters" in Baltic b) Took place yesterday.

No, wonna a real bet? But, first of all, explain what YOU inderstand by "testing the waters in Baltics", to aboid future misundersanding.

[Laerod]

Sure I do.

*scrolls up to the posts about Russians abducting Estonian security*

I won! =D

:clap:

No you didn't. The supposed "kidnapping" a) Are even not close to "testing the waters" in Baltic b) Took place yesterday.

No, wonna a real bet? But, first of all, explain what YOU inderstand by "testing the waters in Baltics", to aboid future misundersanding.

I won't be debating the finer details of why entering a bet on terms as vague as "fucking around with the Baltics" or "testing the waters" was a stupid move on your part.

[Lyttenburg]

I won't be debating the finer details of why entering a bet on terms as vague as "fucking around with the Baltics" or "testing the waters" was a stupid move on your part.

And wasn't it stupid on your part to make such a loud claim, as:

He's going to test the waters in the Baltic states now that he's succeeded in breaking numerous treaties with only sanctions to show for it.

C'mon! Where is your spirit? If you are so sure of your claims - why refuse a bet?

[Allanea]

Laerod, this is very simple.

If you legitimately think Putin will do nasty things in the Baltic, why aren't you willing to write down - on this web forum - what exactly qualifies as "testing the waters in the Batlic"?

[Laerod]

Laerod, this is very simple.

If you legitimately think Putin will do nasty things in the Baltic, why aren't you willing to write down - on this web forum - what exactly qualifies as "testing the waters in the Batlic"?

Basically because there's three or four categories of people in this thread. Lyttenburg falls into the category of anti-Western/pro-Russian contrarians, as in they've subscribed to a worldview so hard that anything that appears to challenge it is immediately shouted down regardless of any validity. And I'm not going to bother expending too much energy on someone like that. You could argue that this is not conducive to debate, but that fails to take into account that there's nothing to debate in the first place if someone considers the whole thing a shouting match rather than an exercise in trying to convince someone else using factual information.

Up until now, they were the only one that asked and I'm not in the mood to entertain their little game of sticking their fingers in their ears. If you're interested, "fucking around with the Baltics" and "testing the waters" are vague terms I used because Putin is rather unpredictable at times. What he'll do is rather speculative. For clarification though, I suspected there would be something along the lines of agitating the ethnic Russians in the Baltics, provocations along the border, or infringements on the sovereignty of the Baltic States. Note that I hadn't read about the incident with the abduction when I posted that, so it turns out that my prediction had already come true.

Posting these qualifiers, however, was utterly pointless as long as it was only Lyttenburg that cared. I already know what they would have responded, namely either something disputing that the abduction happened in Estonian territory or that the Estonian guy entered Russian territory and therefore it was justified (or, you know, both, because Lyttenburg has shown signs of cognitive dissonance before). So if I could already be having the same quality conversation in my head, why bother wasting the effort on doing it in the thread?

[Lyttenburg]

Basically because there's three or four categories of people in this thread. Lyttenburg falls into the category of anti-Western/pro-Russian contrarians, as in they've subscribed to a worldview so hard that anything that appears to challenge it is immediately shouted down regardless of any validity. And I'm not going to bother expending too much energy on someone like that. You could argue that this is not conducive to debate, but that fails to take into account that there's nothing to debate in the first place if someone considers the whole thing a shouting match rather than an exercise in trying to convince someone else using factual information.

Up until now, they were the only one that asked and I'm not in the mood to entertain their little game of sticking their fingers in their ears. If you're interested, "fucking around with the Baltics" and "testing the waters" are vague terms I used because Putin is rather unpredictable at times. What he'll do is rather speculative. For clarification though, I suspected there would be something along the lines of agitating the ethnic Russians in the Baltics, provocations along the border, or infringements on the sovereignty of the Baltic States. Note that I hadn't read about the incident with the abduction when I posted that, so it turns out that my prediction had already come true.

Posting these qualifiers, however, was utterly pointless as long as it was only Lyttenburg that cared. I already know what they would have responded, namely either something disputing that the abduction happened in Estonian territory or that the Estonian guy entered Russian territory and therefore it was justified (or, you know, both, because Lyttenburg has shown signs of cognitive dissonance before). So if I could already be having the same quality conversation in my head, why bother wasting the effort on doing it in the thread?

tl;dr - Слив зачситан.

I, meanwhile, can make a prediction of my own. That this cease-fire won't stand for long. Kiev has no desire to negotiate with People Republics, and any "concession" on part of Poroshenko may lead to 3rd Maydan. Also, some battalions of the National guard are financed and controlled by the Ukrainian oligarchs, like Kolomoiskiy, and thye have previously proved unruly. During the rest attempt to reach a ceasefire Lolomoiskiy basically told Poroshenlo to go fuck oneself, 'cause his, Kolomoiskiy's, battalions, won't respect some "ceasefire".

The West and US of A are also not interested in anything, that would even remotely look like "Russian victory", also, because it gives them an exellent pretext to inflame paranoia, revive NATO and use sanctions left and right. So, this "ceasefire" would be used by Kiev to a) Bury the dead and fudge the number of losses b) Scrap for reinforcements and then attempt a hopeless attempt to retake lost territories.

West, so far, provided only limited help to the Ukraine - US of A sent army rations (majority of which didn't even reached the front lines, but was stolen and even was available for sale on the Internet), Hungary is sending a dozen of tanks. Also, according to some not yet verified info,Kiev plans to buy out Mongolian copters, that were sent to them for repairs - 9 Mi-24В.

Maybe, reaching a permanent peace agreement with Novorossiya would be now a best case scenario for the Ukrainian government - but for purely political reasons, and despite piss-poor state of the military forces - they simply can't.

[Allanea]

That this ceas-fire won't stand for long

I have just gone online to post that the ceasefire has been violated.

Lyttenburg's prediction is... correct again.

[Lyttenburg]

- Video of burned out tanks and BMPs of the Ukrainian army near Starobeshevo. Impressive.

- Destroyed Ukrainian tank on Mariupol's outskirts. On his left board was a graffity - "Onward, to Moscow!". Well, this little engine could not.

[The Lone Alliance]

I, meanwhile, can make a prediction of my own. That this ceas-fire won't stand for long. Kiev has no desire to negotiate with People Republics, and any "concession" on part of Poroshenko may lead to 3rd Maydan. Also, some battalions of the National guard are financed and controlled by the Ukrainian oligarchs, like Kolomoiskiy, and thye have previously proved unruly. During the rest attempt to reach a ceasefire Lolomoiskiy basically told Poroshenlo to go fuck oneself, 'cause his, Kolomoiskiy's, battalions, won't respect some "ceasefire".

They could respect the cease fire if they were denied ammo, but who's to tell.

If anything, I'd be more suspicious of a false flag attack.

The West and US of A are also not interested in anything, that would even remotely look like "Russian victory", also, because it gives them an exellent pretext to inflame paranoia, revive NATO and use sanctions left and right. So, this "ceasefire" would be used by Kiev to a) Bury the dead and fudge the number of losses b) Scrap for reinforcements and then attempt a hopeless attempt to retake lost territories.

NATO doesn't need anymore excuses, the summit already gave them all they wanted, this Estonia thing isn't going to do anything but add fuel to the fire.

Edit: Well looks like someone's deciding to act, I wonder who's firing the first shot though?

West, so far, provided only limited help to the Ukraine - US of A sent army rations (majority of which didn't even reached the front lines, but was stolen and even was available for sale on the Internet), Hungary is sending a dozen of tanks. Also, according to some not yet verified info,Kiev plans to buy out Mongolian copters, that were sent to them for repairs - 9 Mi-24В.

Croatia apparently sold their entire stock of MI-8s and might have also sold their MI-17s to them as well.

Maybe, reaching a permanent peace agreement with Novorossiya would be now a best case scenario for the Ukrainian government - but for purely political reasons, and despite piss-poor state of the military forces - they simply can't.

Right now there isn't much of a good victory for anyone.

Ukraine, obviously, can't claim victory at all, their military has been emasculated and Russia's pretty much camping on their lawn while having the gall to pretend they aren't, the instability is going to last for awhile, however things aren't as bad as they could be.

Right now the rebels can't really claim a full victory either.

The amount of destruction in Donbass and Luhansk has apparently rendered around 28% and 56% of both regions industrial capability destroyed. along with a large part of their infrastructure. The only people who will bankroll those repairs will be Russia. Furthermore the area they claimed originally and the area they hold is far more modest even if they organize their lines, and Mariupol still isn't theirs, which ruins their chances of advancing through the south and securing a land route to Crimea and conquering the rest of the Pro-Russian regions of Ukraine. The fact that they tried to invade Mariupol before the ceasefire kicked in showed how important that city was to their plans. And they failed.

Russia can't claim total victory either, Crimea is still surrounded and dependent on Ukraine, whatever goodwill they had with the west has been blown to hell, and eventually the Russians will have to return home. It's a waiting game now, basically if Ukraine doesn't act then someone will have to false flag one.

Basically if this is a victory, it's a Pyrrhic Victory.

That this ceas-fire won't stand for long

I have just gone online to post that the ceasefire has been violated.

Lyttenburg's prediction is... correct again.

By which side is the question. And if it means it's off or if this is one off things, that's the real question.

- Destroyed Ukrainian tank on Mariupol's outskirts. On his left board was a graffity - "Onward, to Moscow!". Well, this little engine could not.

How in the world did Ukraine get Armor into Mariupol?

And how is anyone supposed to know it wasn't added after it was knocked out?

[Gravlen]

I, meanwhile, can make a prediction of my own. That this cease-fire won't stand for long.

That's not a difficult prediction to make, since the Russian/rebel forces even before the ceasefire went into effect invited journalists to a press conference on how Ukraine is violating the ceasefire.

That said, the reports I'm seeing is that the ceasefire is "largely holding" so far.

[Allanea]

Apparently one of the rebel units has its own Youtube channel with English subtitles.

You can familiarize yourself with the exploits of the legendary Motorola here

[Lyttenburg]

Croatia apparently sold their entire stock of MI-8s and might have also sold their MI-17s to them as well.

Still, this is not enough. The fact that the Uraine had to resort to buying mothballed helis 20+ years old in unkown technical condition just points out how they are desperate.

Right now there isn't much of a good victory for anyone.

Ukraine, obviously, can't claim victory at all, their military has been emasculated and Russia's pretty much camping on their lawn while having the gall to pretend they aren't, the instability is going to last for awhile, however things aren't as bad as they could be.

But they would be soon, if Kiev won't sign any kind of armistice. Also, remember Starks and Gazprom's motto - "The Winter is coming"

By the way, losing Donbass, even its curren bombed out shape, is still very costly for the entire Ukraine. About 40% of the Ukrainian energy is still derived from heat electropower station running on coal (and 20% comes from natural gas). Donetsk coal Basin (Donbas) was the chief supplier of coal for the entire country. And now what? Where would the new government find the money to buy coal?

Right now the rebels can't really claim a full victory either.

The amount of destruction in Donbass and Luhansk has apparently rendered around 28% and 56% of both regions industrial capability destroyed. along with a large part of their infrastructure. The only people who will bankroll those repairs will be Russia.

And here you are partially wrong. Besides Russia, there are other people who are interested in regions reconstruction - the Ukrainian oligarchs, and Rinat Akhmetov in particular, once the richest and most powerful of them. At first he was ambivalent toward the separatist movement in his own Donetsk oblast, but later he fled to Kiev. You can even see him at Poroshenko's presidential inauguration. He is still extremly wealthy, not exactly a friend of the new Kiev's government and other oligarchs. He owns most of the coal mines in the region. For a promise, that People Republic's won't nationalise his property and curb his influnce in the local administrations, he might bankroll a part of restoration bills.

Furthermore the area they claimed originally and the area they hold is far more modest even if they organize their lines, and Mariupol still isn't theirs, which ruins their chances of advancing through the south and securing a land route to Crimea and conquering the rest of the Pro-Russian regions of Ukraine. The fact that they tried to invade Mariupol before the ceasefire kicked in showed how important that city was to their plans. And they failed.

I still say that all who subscribe to theory, that Russia wants a "land bridge to Crimea" are wrong. Russia may wish for that, but, seriously, no one entertains such far fetched idea as being realistic. And reasons for not taking Mariupol, given militia's forces supremacy and the fact that they've managed to capture two city districts are political.

- Destroyed Ukrainian tank on Mariupol's outskirts. On his left board was a graffity - "Onward, to Moscow!". Well, this little engine could not.

How in the world did Ukraine get Armor into Mariupol?

And how is anyone supposed to know it wasn't added after it was knocked out?

There were armor units in Mariupol. No seriously, claiming that "graffity was added later" is lame, because besides "Onward to Moscow!", it sported 2 "Смерть Ворогам!" ("Death to Enemies!" in Ukrainian) obviously written before the tank was destroyed.

[Respawn]

Ukraine, obviously, can't claim victory at all, their military has been emasculated and Russia's pretty much camping on their lawn while having the gall to pretend they aren't, the instability is going to last for awhile, however things aren't as bad as they could be.

Maybe not in the short term. But if the Ukrainian government is smart, they can easily win in the long term.

If Donetsk and Luhansk become a Transnistria style "independent" state, Ukraine would have a greatly reduced pro-Russian minority and firm support from the US and EU.
Russia, on the other hand, has lost all international credibility and all they have gained is three poor backwaters. No one is likely to invest it them except Russia, and Russia will have to waste endless amounts of money propping up its little satellite state like the ones in Georgia.

Ukraine should not accept any kind of federalisation, as Russia will continue to have leverage if they do.
The biggest sticking point is Ukraine's dependence on the Russian economy. This will take the most time and will need Poland style reforms. Even without Donbass, Ukraine has fertile lands and a cheap labour force.

Getting rid of a hostile minority is a victory in itself, even if it means losing territory. Fun fact: Denmark entered its golden period following the loss of Slesvig and Holsten (which were full of Germans) to Prussia and Austria in 1864. So it would be smart for Kiev to at least recognise the de-facto independence of the east, but that is doubtful as any Ukrainian politician who even thinks about that would be labelled as a traitor.

[Baltenstein]

Sure they will. Putin's MO thus far has been to push his bullshit as far as he can before meeting any resistance and then digging in. He's going to test the waters in the Baltic states now that he's succeeded in breaking numerous treaties with only sanctions to show for it.

Wanna bet? ASB already lost one to me.

You mean the bet about Russian forces invading Ukraine before summer's end - which is exactly what happened?

[Lyttenburg]

Maybe not in the short term. But if the Ukrainian government is smart, they can easily win in the long term.

Can you provide any examples of smart moves on behalf of the Ukrainian government, lately?

If Donetsk and Luhansk become a Transnistria style "independent" state, Ukraine would have a greatly reduced pro-Russian minority and firm support from the US and EU.

Firm support expressed by what, exactly? Taps on the shoulder and empty rhetoric? Germany for the second consequent year has negative growth of GDP. Do you really think they want to bankroll or invest in such corrupt unstable country with the slowly burning civil war, political instability and no wil for reforms from the political elites? Besides, not all woes and troubles of the Ukraine can be blamed on "filthy Moscals".

Russia, on the other hand, has lost all international credibility and all they have gained is three poor backwaters. No one is likely to invest it them except Russia, and Russia will have to waste endless amounts of money propping up its little satellite state like the ones in Georgia.

The same was said after august 2008. Somehow, despite all naysayers, Russia (gasp!) survived - as well as Abkhazia ans South Ossetia, which was the real goal actually.

Ukraine should not accept any kind of federalisation, as Russia will continue to have leverage if they do.
The biggest sticking point is Ukraine's dependence on the Russian economy. This will take the most time and will need Poland style reforms.

you forgot to add - and even more billions of credits and investements than Poland received at the start of said reforms and is receivng now.

Even without Donbass, Ukraine has fertile lands and a cheap labour force.

Oh, yeah! How I forgot - cheap immigrant labor from non-EU countries. Just exactly what every European dreams of!

Getting rid of a hostile minority is a victory in itself, even if it means losing territory.

There are so many things that could be said contrary to this statement... And not exactly nice...

[Sovereign California]

I'm willing to let Russia have Crimea, because historically speaking it was apart of Russia for a long period and would have remained so if it weren't for Nikita Khrushchev who didn't anticipate the USSR ceasing to exist. But I'm against Russian wanting of the Donets Basin which would normally belong to Ukraine if it weren't in rebellion.

It doesn't look like Obama is going to ease off on Russia with regards to events in Crimea. I contend that Russia has a genuine claim and interest to Crimea and in exchange for their keeping Crimea but not annexing Ukraine any further, Russia could help with the deteriorating situations in Syria and Iraq.

It actually wasn't part of Russia until the late 1700s. It was controlled by various different peoples for various amounts of time. The Crimean Khanate existed for 300 years, which is almost one-hundred years longer than Russia's two-hundred years of possessing the territory.

And besides, it doesn't really matter. What matters is what the people of Crimea want now. It's irrelevant if Russia was the previous owner of the territory. Great Britain was the previous owner of the east coast of the US. Should they get that territory back?

I doubt Russia will assist in those regions you mentioned. It only seems to be interested in rebuilding it's empire.

I have to give credit to Saiwania and you for knowing that Crimea was previously Russian prior to 1954. As to it being irrelevant that Russia was the previous owner of the territory, it should be relevant because there still is a sizable Russian population living there that legitimately wishes for integration with the rest of Russia.

As to the whole business with the U.K. being the previous owner of the U.S.'s east coast, there are no British-Americans living in the U.S. today that constitute a majority in any of these states that have any desire to secede from the United States and/or become integrated with the United Kingdom.

As for Russia wishing to rebuild its empire, I doubt Russia has any ambitions other than rebuilding its military considering they've retired/scrapped all but three Typhoon class SSBNs, and maybe a half-dozen Delta III & IV class SSBNs, building a new Borei class SSBN.