Islamic State Crisis Megathread (ISIS/ISIL/IS)

[Novus America]

They would probably prefer their own separate government after years of oppression by Sunni Saddam. Probably a rump version of the current Iraqi government they currently control, basically little would change. It seems to be supported by a majority of Shia.

They could make whatever democratic change they want to though.

If you think Jordan should annex the Sunni majority areas, why not suggest Iran annexing the Shia majority areas? Then you could let the rest go to the Kurds or something, right?

Well they could vote to join Iran, but I doubt they would. See the majority of Iran is Persian, and the Shia Arabs in Iran sometimes rebel, so it would probably not work. Jordan is Sunni Arab, so Sunni Iraq would work well in union with Jordan, having the same language and basic ethnic identity. (And again the Hashemites have a special legitimacy amongst their tribes) However Shia Iraq does not have a common language or ethnicity with the majority of Iran.

So I think they would prefer to be an independent state allied to Iran but it would be their choice.

The Kurds certainly deserve their own independent state, which they already have de facto, so little would change for them, except they get recognition, their government would remain the same.

Also I would think rather than having Jordan outright annex Iraq, a United Arab Kingdom, something like a federal UK should be created, with one king, military and federal government but the constituent kingdoms (Jordan, Sunni Iraq and Sunni Syria, possibly Palestine) would each have their own parliament with broad autonomous powers over domestic matters.

[Ganos Lao]

The Kurds certainly deserve their own independent state, which they already have de facto, so little would change for them, except they get recognition, their government would remain the same.

What about the Assyrians? They've been fighting for autonomy/independence for decades. I'm sure they'd be rather vocal about the partitioning of Iraq. They did have militias in the past, but currently all I know is of a police force around the Nineveh Plain.

I found this in Wikileaks:

In a July 3 meeting with PRT and US Army civil affairs personnel, Mayor of Tal Kaif District Basim Bello said Assyrians in Ninewa Province feel intimidated by the Kurds and suffer from a lack of essential services. Bello said the solution lies in the inclusion of all groups in the provincial government. He said civil rights protections for Christians will continue to be a concern whether predominantly Christian areas remain part of Ninewa or join the KRG. He reiterated his party's position that the Christian areas of Ninewa should form an autonomous region under Article 125 of the constitution.

In a separate meeting with Father Dinkha Issa, the Assyrian Christian priest in Al Qosh, Dhinka expressed hope the church could help bring peace to an area that he described as "disputed between two governments" (the Government of Iraq and the KRG). Unlike Basim, Dhinka said there have been no problems with intimidation or interference from political parties or Kurdish security forces. A new orphanage building, funded by ex-KRG Minister of Finance Sarkis Aghajan, was nearly finished.

There are also the Turkmens, who seem to have been the victims of both Arabification and Kurdification; the Turkmen and Kurdish communities have been feuding over land each says belongs to them. Violence has broken out between the two sides, with Ankara giving support to the Turkmen. There's also two groups who are rivals for the support of the Turkmen, a pro-Kurdish faction and a pro-Turkmen/Ankara faction. The Iraqi Turkmen Front are getting Turkish training also, including from the Special Forces Command (Maroon Berets).

There are also the Shabaks, who have ties to the Yazidi despite claiming being Shiites, the Mandaeans, who are the "Sabeans" of Islam and who are burdened with worries that their religion and culture will die out, the Marsh Arabs, and other groups.

Any partition of Iraq will have to include the views and opinions of all these groups, or else there'll be interethnic violence once ISIS is dealt with.

[Genivaria]

I'm subscribed to the Lions of Rojava on Facebook, I occasionally get photos from the field.
A couple times they'd post pictures of dead ISIS fighters.

This sight makes me smile, is there something wrong with me?

[West Aurelia]

I'm subscribed to the Lions of Rojava on Facebook, I occasionally get photos from the field.
A couple times they'd post pictures of dead ISIS fighters.

This sight makes me smile, is there something wrong with me?

What's that?

[The Alma Mater]

I'm subscribed to the Lions of Rojava on Facebook, I occasionally get photos from the field.
A couple times they'd post pictures of dead ISIS fighters.

This sight makes me smile, is there something wrong with me?

Only if you put the images of the dead IS fighters in a slideshow with the nasheed "My Ummah, Dawn has appeared" playing on the background for max irony.

[Novus America]

The Kurds certainly deserve their own independent state, which they already have de facto, so little would change for them, except they get recognition, their government would remain the same.

What about the Assyrians? They've been fighting for autonomy/independence for decades. I'm sure they'd be rather vocal about the partitioning of Iraq. They did have militias in the past, but currently all I know is of a police force around the Nineveh Plain.

I found this in Wikileaks:

In a July 3 meeting with PRT and US Army civil affairs personnel, Mayor of Tal Kaif District Basim Bello said Assyrians in Ninewa Province feel intimidated by the Kurds and suffer from a lack of essential services. Bello said the solution lies in the inclusion of all groups in the provincial government. He said civil rights protections for Christians will continue to be a concern whether predominantly Christian areas remain part of Ninewa or join the KRG. He reiterated his party's position that the Christian areas of Ninewa should form an autonomous region under Article 125 of the constitution.

In a separate meeting with Father Dinkha Issa, the Assyrian Christian priest in Al Qosh, Dhinka expressed hope the church could help bring peace to an area that he described as "disputed between two governments" (the Government of Iraq and the KRG). Unlike Basim, Dhinka said there have been no problems with intimidation or interference from political parties or Kurdish security forces. A new orphanage building, funded by ex-KRG Minister of Finance Sarkis Aghajan, was nearly finished.

There are also the Turkmens, who seem to have been the victims of both Arabification and Kurdification; the Turkmen and Kurdish communities have been feuding over land each says belongs to them. Violence has broken out between the two sides, with Ankara giving support to the Turkmen. There's also two groups who are rivals for the support of the Turkmen, a pro-Kurdish faction and a pro-Turkmen/Ankara faction. The Iraqi Turkmen Front are getting Turkish training also, including from the Special Forces Command (Maroon Berets).

There are also the Shabaks, who have ties to the Yazidi despite claiming being Shiites, the Mandaeans, who are the "Sabeans" of Islam and who are burdened with worries that their religion and culture will die out, the Marsh Arabs, and other groups.

Any partition of Iraq will have to include the views and opinions of all these groups, or else there'll be interethnic violence once ISIS is dealt with.

These groups are mostly too small to be viable as truly independent states but could be granted autonomous municipalities within Kurdistan, the newly formed Sunni Kingdom of Iraq or the remaining Shia Republic of Iraq. Alternatively semi dependant mini states something like Andorra or San Marino could be created. Or some combination of the two.

I would not venture to establish the exact details, some sort of commission of experts and community representatives would have to be formed to hammer out the exact details.

[Filimons]

What about the Assyrians? They've been fighting for autonomy/independence for decades. I'm sure they'd be rather vocal about the partitioning of Iraq. They did have militias in the past, but currently all I know is of a police force around the Nineveh Plain.

I found this in Wikileaks:



There are also the Turkmens, who seem to have been the victims of both Arabification and Kurdification; the Turkmen and Kurdish communities have been feuding over land each says belongs to them. Violence has broken out between the two sides, with Ankara giving support to the Turkmen. There's also two groups who are rivals for the support of the Turkmen, a pro-Kurdish faction and a pro-Turkmen/Ankara faction. The Iraqi Turkmen Front are getting Turkish training also, including from the Special Forces Command (Maroon Berets).

There are also the Shabaks, who have ties to the Yazidi despite claiming being Shiites, the Mandaeans, who are the "Sabeans" of Islam and who are burdened with worries that their religion and culture will die out, the Marsh Arabs, and other groups.

Any partition of Iraq will have to include the views and opinions of all these groups, or else there'll be interethnic violence once ISIS is dealt with.

These groups are mostly too small to be viable as truly independent states but could be granted autonomous municipalities within Kurdistan or the newly formed Kingdom of Iraq or semi dependant mini states something like Andorra could be created.

Do you think the Assyrians are too small to receive their own state? There are about 700,000 of them in Syria and Iraq and a hypothetical Christian nation-state in the Middle East would probably result in something similar to the Israeli 'right of return' or Aliyah.

[Blakk Metal]

These groups are mostly too small to be viable as truly independent states but could be granted autonomous municipalities within Kurdistan or the newly formed Kingdom of Iraq or semi dependant mini states something like Andorra could be created.

Do you think the Assyrians are too small to receive their own state? There are about 700,000 of them in Syria and Iraq and a hypothetical Christian nation-state in the Middle East would probably result in something similar to the Israeli 'right of return' or Aliyah.

Then it definitely shouldn't exist. Israel is already a pain in the ass.

[Novus America]

These groups are mostly too small to be viable as truly independent states but could be granted autonomous municipalities within Kurdistan or the newly formed Kingdom of Iraq or semi dependant mini states something like Andorra could be created.

Do you think the Assyrians are too small to receive their own state? There are about 700,000 of them in Syria and Iraq and a hypothetical Christian nation-state in the Middle East would probably result in something similar to the Israeli 'right of return' or Aliyah.

See my edit above, some sort of commission would have to be created to hammer out the details. The issue with the Assyrians is their communities are not contiguous but if granted small states like San Marino or Andorra these small states could form some sort of Assyrian confederation or federation.

[Filimons]

Do you think the Assyrians are too small to receive their own state? There are about 700,000 of them in Syria and Iraq and a hypothetical Christian nation-state in the Middle East would probably result in something similar to the Israeli 'right of return' or Aliyah.

Then it definitely shouldn't exist. Israel is already a pain in the ass.

If an all-inclusive settlement is reached establishing clear national boundaries, protections for ethnic minorities et al. nothing even remotely resembling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would occur. At its most basic, an Assyrian right of return would allow Assyrians émigrés elsewhere to return to their Homeland in order to establish, govern and bring prosperity to their new nation-state. The same would apply to virtually all states carved out of Syria and Iraq.

[Filimons]

Do you think the Assyrians are too small to receive their own state? There are about 700,000 of them in Syria and Iraq and a hypothetical Christian nation-state in the Middle East would probably result in something similar to the Israeli 'right of return' or Aliyah.

See my edit above, some sort of commission would have to be created to hammer out the details. The issue with the Assyrians is their communities are not contiguous but if granted small states like San Marino or Andorra these small states could form some sort of Assyrian confederation or federation.

I was about to suggest moving people around to establish contiguous communities but then I realised that's not a very good idea.

[Saiwania]

Russia to supply weapons to Iraq without preconditions

Yeah, that is not going to help. The U.S. already gave huge amounts of weapons to Iraq who promptly turned them over to Daesh/ISIS. Even the best armed army is worse than useless if it lacks the will to fight.

It won't. What Russia should be doing is supplying the Syrian Armed Forces and perhaps the Peshmerga. These are the two factions that actually have some measure of success on the battlefield that could be multiplied if they had the needed equipment to drive back IS with. Iraq already has a supplier in Iran and Iraq's central government isn't really accomplishing much except holding Shia territory.

[Novus America]

See my edit above, some sort of commission would have to be created to hammer out the details. The issue with the Assyrians is their communities are not contiguous but if granted small states like San Marino or Andorra these small states could form some sort of Assyrian confederation or federation.

I was about to suggest moving people around to establish contiguous communities but then I realised that's not a very good idea.

Do you think my proposal for a confederation or federation of Andorra/San Marino like mini states would be viable? The only other option I can see would be autonomous municipalities. But I am open to any and all suggestions.

[Novus America]

Yeah, that is not going to help. The U.S. already gave huge amounts of weapons to Iraq who promptly turned them over to Daesh/ISIS. Even the best armed army is worse than useless if it lacks the will to fight.

It won't. What Russia should be doing is supplying the Syrian Armed Forces and perhaps the Peshmerga. These are the two factions that actually have some measure of success on the battlefield that could be multiplied if they had the needed equipment to drive back IS with. Iraq already has a supplier in Iran and Iraq's central government isn't really accomplishing much except holding Shia territory.

Considering the defeat at Palmyra, (Amongst others) I do not have that much more faith in the Syrian armed forces. That leaves the Peshmerga.

[Filimons]

Do you think my proposal for a confederation or federation of Andorra/San Marino like mini states would be viable? The only other option I can see would be autonomous municipalities. But I am open to any and all suggestions.

I wouldn't favour autonomous municipalities within another non-Christian/Assyrian state; frankly, I don't think the central government would adequately protect the Assyrians nor do I think it would guarantee their autonomy and freedoms. So, that option is discarded.

However, I fear a disconnected federation or confederation of Assyrian states would not be able to succeed. How does one ensure coöperation between the different states of the 'Union'? I fear the overly de-centralised and geographically separate nature of this state would make it ungovernable.

By any chance, do you have a map of the areas primarily inhabited by Assyrian Christians?

[Filimons]

It won't. What Russia should be doing is supplying the Syrian Armed Forces and perhaps the Peshmerga. These are the two factions that actually have some measure of success on the battlefield that could be multiplied if they had the needed equipment to drive back IS with. Iraq already has a supplier in Iran and Iraq's central government isn't really accomplishing much except holding Shia territory.

Considering the defeat at Palmyra, (Amongst others) I do not have that much more faith in the Syrian armed forces. That leaves the Peshmerga.

To be fair, they managed to evacuate most civilians at Palmyra and its surrounding areas whereas the Iraqis were quite plainly cowards.

[Novus America]

Considering the defeat at Palmyra, (Amongst others) I do not have that much more faith in the Syrian armed forces. That leaves the Peshmerga.

To be fair, they managed to evacuate most civilians at Palmyra and its surrounding areas whereas the Iraqis were quite plainly cowards.

I will give you that. They certainly fight better than the Iraqi Army, but that is not saying much.

[Filimons]

To be fair, they managed to evacuate most civilians at Palmyra and its surrounding areas whereas the Iraqis were quite plainly cowards.

I will give you that. They certainly fight better than the Iraqi Army, but that is not saying much.

It's an Arab issue I'm afraid.
http://www.meforum.org/441/why-arabs-lose-wars
http://www.nationalpost.com/home/story. ... EF0496C6C5

[Filimons]

Last Syrian border post seized by Daesh.

[Novus America]

Do you think my proposal for a confederation or federation of Andorra/San Marino like mini states would be viable? The only other option I can see would be autonomous municipalities. But I am open to any and all suggestions.

I wouldn't favour autonomous municipalities within another non-Christian/Assyrian state; frankly, I don't think the central government would adequately protect the Assyrians nor do I think it would guarantee their autonomy and freedoms. So, that option is discarded.

However, I fear a disconnected federation or confederation of Assyrian states would not be able to succeed. How does one ensure coöperation between the different states of the 'Union'? I fear the overly de-centralised and geographically separate nature of this state would make it ungovernable.

By any chance, do you have a map of the areas primarily inhabited by Assyrian Christians?

You can google demographics of Iraq or Syria and come up with a few maps, and Wikipedia has some, but none with the detail I would like. A google image search "Assyrian people map" came up with a couple decent images. The Assyrians seem to get limited notice. I do not have such a map, if you can find one let me know, I would certainly like to find one. Partially since I love maps anyways.

I agree with you that maintaining such a union would be difficult, but I am unsure what other options are available. The 3rd option is mass relocation, but of the 3 I think the confederation/ federation is best if far from perfect. I do not think a centralized but geographically separated state would work. Pakistan tried it and failed miserably. If we reject autonomous municipalities and relocation that is the only remaining option of the 3. So unless we come up with a 4th option what other choice do we have? If anything survival instincts and common language and identity might be enough to hold it together. Azerbaijan has two geographically separate autonomous parts, so I think it maybe could work.

[Filimons]

You can google demographics of Iraq or Syria and come up with a few maps, and Wikipedia has some, but none with the detail I would like. The Assyrians seem to get limited notice.

I agree with you that maintaining such a union would be difficult, but I am unsure what other options are available. The 3rd option is mass relocation, but of the 3 I think the confederation/ federation is best if far from perfect. I do not think a centralized but geographically separated state would work. Pakistan tried it and failed miserably. If we reject autonomous municipalities and relocation that is the only remaining option of the 3. So unless we come up with a 4th option what other choice do we have? If anything survival instincts and common language and identity might be enough to hold it together. Azerbaijan has two geographically separate autonomous parts, so I think it maybe could work.

I found this for Syria and this for Iraq. I wish the Assyrians and other Christians were given more attention. One thing, would this state only include Assyrians? Despite the linguistic differences an all-Christian state would be preferable to a solely Assyrian/Chaldean state in my opinion but I am by no means an expert on the subject-matter.

Suddenly, mass relocation doesn't seem so bad! The State of Israel airlifted 14,325 Ethiopian Jews in 36 hours under unfavourable conditions; it's not impossible under better conditions and with more time. If other Christian groups are included they could be relocated with their own and given autonomy so as to have a federal state in which each federal subdivision is mainly populated by speakers of the same language. Can anyone with more experience and knowledge on this subject suggest anything?

[Novus America]

You can google demographics of Iraq or Syria and come up with a few maps, and Wikipedia has some, but none with the detail I would like. The Assyrians seem to get limited notice.

I agree with you that maintaining such a union would be difficult, but I am unsure what other options are available. The 3rd option is mass relocation, but of the 3 I think the confederation/ federation is best if far from perfect. I do not think a centralized but geographically separated state would work. Pakistan tried it and failed miserably. If we reject autonomous municipalities and relocation that is the only remaining option of the 3. So unless we come up with a 4th option what other choice do we have? If anything survival instincts and common language and identity might be enough to hold it together. Azerbaijan has two geographically separate autonomous parts, so I think it maybe could work.

I found this for Syria and this for Iraq. I wish the Assyrians and other Christians were given more attention. One thing, would this state only include Assyrians? Despite the linguistic differences an all-Christian state would be preferable to a solely Assyrian/Chaldean state in my opinion but I am by no means an expert on the subject-matter.

Suddenly, mass relocation doesn't seem so bad! The State of Israel airlifted 14,325 Ethiopian Jews in 36 hours under unfavourable conditions; it's not impossible under better conditions and with more time. If other Christian groups are included they could be relocated with their own and given autonomy so as to have a federal state in which each federal subdivision is mainly populated by speakers of the same language. Can anyone with more experience and knowledge on this subject suggest anything?

Thank you for the maps. A Christian federation is interesting and perhaps survival instinct alone could hold it together. A siege mentality is an effective unifying technique, despite its problems.

And some relocations might be necessary as was done in the aftermath of Yugoslavia so I agree it might have to be included.

Some combination of the three is might have to be considered. Again I would not venture to come up with the destails myself, if I had the power to actually make my ideas more than mere words on the internet I would create an expert commission to create a detailed comprehensive plan taking all these issues into account.

[Genivaria]

I'm subscribed to the Lions of Rojava on Facebook, I occasionally get photos from the field.
A couple times they'd post pictures of dead ISIS fighters.

This sight makes me smile, is there something wrong with me?

Only if you put the images of the dead IS fighters in a slideshow with the nasheed "My Ummah, Dawn has appeared" playing on the background for max irony.

I don't get it.

[Filimons]

Thank you for the maps. A Christian federation is interesting and perhaps survival instinct alone could hold it together. A siege mentality is an effective unifying technique, despite its problems.

And some relocations might be necessary as was done in the aftermath of Yugoslavia so I agree it might have to be included.

Some combination of the three is might have to be considered. Again I would not venture to come up with the destails myself, if I had the power to actually make my ideas more than mere words on the internet I would create an expert commission to create a detailed comprehensive plan taking all these issues into account.

No worries; googling 'Iraq/Syria ethnic maps' will give you a few more if you're interested. A pan-Christian federation involving all Christian groups in the area seems suitable otherwise the resulting state could be too small and weak. I wouldn't worry about the siege mentality after the 'siege' has passed; their common religion should hold them together and the federalisation of the nation-state should keep them happy. L'union fait la force et al.

Undoubtedly, a mix of all three 'solutions would be used. It's unrealistic to believe every single Christian village and town will be completely 'evacuated' and 'transported' to the new state; a certain degree of autonomy should be given to the Christians remaining outside of this Christian state. As we've already discussed, mass relocation would be used under our plan (well, humble suggestion on an internet forum but we can always dream) and the different ethnic communities in the ensuing would be granted a significant degree of autonomy while sharing a central government.

[West Aurelia]

Two children were likely killed in a coalition airstrike in November. This is the first time the coalition has acknowledged civilian deaths (although they haven't been technically confirmed yet).

Some Iraqis blame the US for the fall of Ramadi.

An IS supporter wants to cripple the US economy by making Americans hate chips. I'd actually like to see this attempted.