The Mod-Sanctioned Scottish Referendum Megathread

[NERVUN]

I do find one aspect particularly intriguing...the polls consistently painted a close "Yes" win - about 5% separating the "Yes" and "no" votes. Instead, the margin is about 10% - "Yes" 45%, "No" 55%.

I wonder why? Was it sampling errors, deliberate bias (nothing sells papers like a horse-race election, not a snoozer), some variant of the Bradley effect in play ("No" voters claiming to be undecided or "yes" voters out of some sense of social pressure), or something else?

That's a very good question, and one that intrigues me as well.

I seem to recall a news article that said this poll played merry hell with the pollsters. Pollsters use previous elections to craft their predictions about likely voters to ask. This had never been done before in Scotland so...

[Marcurix]

they do have freedom.

The No vote won, haven't you seen?

And? If you think that means we don't have freedom, you don't know what freedom is.

[The Nihilistic view]

I'm British and i'm pleased with the result. In answer to the thread poll.

[SuperFruitland]

Salmond making pro-independence comments, in a speech supposed to be about the "No" vote winning the referendum...

That man has no grace. A concession is supposed to be gracious, not an attempt to fire up for round #2....

imagine

next week, in the Guardian

SALMOND CALLS FOR SECOND REFERENDUM news headline

*world facepalms*

[New Laikland]

And? If you think that means we don't have freedom, you don't know what freedom is,

WHAT did you just say to me?

[The balkens]

they do have freedom.

The No vote won, haven't you seen?

Yes, its a thing called having the FREEDOM to vote in a wonderful democracy like the UNITED KINGDOM.

[Utceforp]

Appropriate, in celebration of union.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBQAoJd7Yno

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuU_CD9S3XM

Freedom feels wonderful!

Scotland is in a democratic country, they are free. Of course, it could be a little democraticer if they got rid of that pesky royal family, but that's not the point of this thread, especially since the pro-independence groups seem to have wanted to keep the Queen.

[Alyakia]

Salmond making pro-independence comments, in a speech supposed to be about the "No" vote winning the referendum...

That man has no grace. A concession is supposed to be gracious, not an attempt to fire up for round #2....

he's firing up for more powers and scotland moving forward. there's only a round #2 if they fail to do this. i don't see why people saying "lots of people voted for independence" is controversial.

[El Fiji Grande]

Salmond:

"....Scotland has decided at this stage to remain part of the union...."

[New Chalcedon]

I do find one aspect particularly intriguing...the polls consistently painted a close "Yes" win - about 5% separating the "Yes" and "no" votes. Instead, the margin is about 10% - "Yes" 45%, "No" 55%.

I wonder why? Was it sampling errors, deliberate bias (nothing sells papers like a horse-race election, not a snoozer), some variant of the Bradley effect in play ("No" voters claiming to be undecided or "yes" voters out of some sense of social pressure), or something else?

This is something I partially covered earlier in the thread...

Though I couldn't speculate on the cause, polling for referendums fairly consistently overestimates the 'Yes' vote. In 1995, for example, Yes went in to polling day with an apparent 6 point lead in Quebec.

See here for details: viewtopic.php?p=21784027#p21784027

Ah, thank you. So it's not a one-off...which still leaves me wondering about the cause of it all.

[Liriena]

Salmond:

"....Scotland has decided at this stage to remain part of the union...."

Nice choice of words. Not too subtle, not too conspicuous.

[The Republic of Pantalleria]

So? We sell you our wine.

O, rly?

*toddles off to check teh interwebz for facts*

CER honey (Closer Economic Relations)

[NERVUN]

And? If you think that means we don't have freedom, you don't know what freedom is,

WHAT did you just say to me?

New Laikland, knock it off. You're getting very close to the line.

[Kaztropol]

if any of you drive along the M77, you might see the thing I saw yesterday. Between junctions 5 and 6, i think. on the eastern side.

There's a wooden structure, a sort of pyramid thing, looks a bit like a letter A. Dunno what it is, it's been there for years. Might be a tower for a weather station or something.

Anyway, yesterday, it was dressed up, with a union flag on top, and a big sign saying "Empty Oil Well" on it.

was one of the most curious and amusing campaigning things I've seen.

[New Laikland]

New Laikland, knock it off. You're getting very close to the line.

Just an Irishman knocking fun at the Scottish. I'll head off and do some more productive things, now.

*Tips fedora* Farewell, thread.

[SuperFruitland]

Well, to celebrate the United Kingdom staying united, you can buy your tickets for England-San Marino from the FA now!

(i do know the UK =/= England, but still...)

[New Chalcedon]

O, rly?

*toddles off to check teh interwebz for facts*

CER honey (Closer Economic Relations)

CER honey?

*looks for some hunny to eat*

More seriously, I know you sell a lot to us, and we to you. I just didn't think you sold much wine to us...Australia's a big wine producer. Must be all the Brits here....

(please don't hit me, Mods! )

[The Nihilistic view]

Well, to celebrate the United Kingdom staying united, you can buy your tickets for England-San Marino from the FA now!

(i do know the UK =/= England, but still...)

Can we vote to give the England team to Scotland?

[Dalcaria]

Wait, most of the people disappointed with the results here aren't even from the UK or Scotland, and then the same back for those pleased with them? I find that slightly ironic in a way.

That's just the result of the fact that the majority of NS isn't from the British Isles. Non-Brits are always going to outweigh Brits.

Oh I know, I just find it ironic that they care so much. XD Granted, I'm not a resident of the isles either, but I fully consider myself British and plan on making myself a resident there in the future, so my own pride in my heritage is what gives me a "stake" in this, so to speak. But for other people just weighing in, it does seem a little odd to me, especially from the Yes side. The No side I get because they fear how it will effect business and such (especially in the EU), but the Yes side goes into nationalism and "old wounds" and I question how good their understanding is of how people in the UK actually fell about things, and I apply this to Scotland as well. A lot of foreign Yes supporters seem to think all Scots feel they've been trampled on in life, but clearly this isn't the case now. More importantly, you got a lot of chest thumping in this debate, but a lot of that for the Yes side also came from foreign Yes supporters, whereas with the No side I suspect it would have stayed more to the UK, so I'm a little annoyed that they take the "William Wallace" stance, so to speak, without understanding that Scots have got more things they are concerned about than just "fighting off the English". I respect the Yes side's opinion, and I respect non-Brits getting involved in this, I just think many non-Brits didn't look at the situation as a whole. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's the feeling I got.

[Herargon]

Scotland stays with the UK, it seems.

Poll results:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish ... ndum,_2014

[Herargon]

Also, as a non-native second language English speaker, I'm wondering; what does gloating mean? The OP mentioned that.

[SuperFruitland]

Well, to celebrate the United Kingdom staying united, you can buy your tickets for England-San Marino from the FA now!

(i do know the UK =/= England, but still...)

Can we vote to give the England team to Scotland?

*UK government decides to form United Kingdom international team*

*UK international team wins everything*

*Scotland decides that keeping in the UK was good idea*

*UK government kicks out Scottish players from UK team*

*Scotland holds another referendum*

*UK team dissolves back into previous teams*

*Rinse and repeat*

[NERVUN]

CER honey (Closer Economic Relations)

CER honey?

*looks for some hunny to eat*

More seriously, I know you sell a lot to us, and we to you. I just didn't think you sold much wine to us...Australia's a big wine producer. Must be all the Brits here....

(please don't hit me, Mods! )

*The Mod currently moderating is awash in Australian and New Zealand wine, but not his beloved Californian*

Bloody Japan!

[Wisconsin9]

Also, as a non-native second language English speaker, I'm wondering; what does gloating mean? The OP mentioned that.

It's sort of like mocking an opponent who's lost.

[SuperFruitland]

Meanwhile, Highland STILL HASN'T DECLARED.

*sigh*

I did say I would be here until the last votes were counted....