The Mod-Sanctioned Scottish Referendum Megathread

[Roski]

I do find one aspect particularly intriguing...the polls consistently painted a close "Yes" win - about 5% separating the "Yes" and "no" votes. Instead, the margin is about 10% - "Yes" 45%, "No" 55%.

I wonder why? Was it sampling errors, deliberate bias (nothing sells papers like a horse-race election, not a snoozer), some variant of the Bradley effect in play ("No" voters claiming to be undecided or "yes" voters out of some sense of social pressure), or something else?

Because "No" overtook a further lead in Edinburg.

[Jinwoy]

I do find one aspect particularly intriguing...the polls consistently painted a close "Yes" win - about 5% separating the "Yes" and "no" votes. Instead, the margin is about 10% - "Yes" 45%, "No" 55%.

I wonder why? Was it sampling errors, deliberate bias (nothing sells papers like a horse-race election, not a snoozer), some variant of the Bradley effect in play ("No" voters claiming to be undecided or "yes" voters out of some sense of social pressure), or something else?

Basically, when you work out the margin of error (typically around 10%), you post the result that would make the most controversy because news.

[The Archregimancy]

Yes, but many of us will consider West Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire and Inverclyde (which did vote No, by however narrow a margin) as being part of greater Glasgow.

So while Utceforp missed Dundee, "Yes only won in Dundee and parts of greater Glasgow" would be a fair enough comment.

Ah. Fair enough, then

Any particular idea why Glasgow was much more pro-indie than the rest of Scotland?

Well, technically Dundee returned the highest Yes vote.

But for Glasgow, which is where my mother, the only pro-Yes member of my family is from...

I would think it's a combination of Glasgow - particularly Glasgow-region industry - suffering badly under Thatcher, and many traditional social democratic Glaswegians believing particularly strongly that Conservative-led UK governments can no longer represent their political interests. I disagree - obviously - that the latter should be enough reason to vote for independence, but it's an argument that seems to hold particular force in some of the traditional working-class urban centres of Scotland; including Glasgow and Dundee.

[Greater Gaelicland]

Scotland Says Naw, £10 that the FM tops himself within a week

[New Chalcedon]

Oh, that's fair enough - I certainly don't object to supporters of the losing side of the vote crying into their beers. A certain sorrow is natural.

I'm not a Scot, I'm a New Zealander.

Oh, so you'd have been crying into second-rate beer, then. Most likely our exports.

<---Is Australian

[Dalcaria]

Wait, most of the people disappointed with the results here aren't even from the UK or Scotland, and then the same back for those pleased with them? I find that slightly ironic in a way.

[Eastern Equestria]

They got us all riled up for nothing. Oh well, back to our normal lives I suppose.

[El Fiji Grande]

I do find one aspect particularly intriguing...the polls consistently painted a close "Yes" win - about 5% separating the "Yes" and "no" votes. Instead, the margin is about 10% - "Yes" 45%, "No" 55%.

I wonder why? Was it sampling errors, deliberate bias (nothing sells papers like a horse-race election, not a snoozer), some variant of the Bradley effect in play ("No" voters claiming to be undecided or "yes" voters out of some sense of social pressure), or something else?

That's a very good question, and one that intrigues me as well.

[Jinwoy]

Appropriate, in celebration of union.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBQAoJd7Yno

[Utceforp]

Wait, most of the people disappointed with the results here aren't even from the UK or Scotland, and then the same back for those pleased with them? I find that slightly ironic in a way.

That's just the result of the fact that the majority of NS isn't from the British Isles. Non-Brits are always going to outweigh Brits.

[SuperFruitland]

Salmond making pro-independence comments, in a speech supposed to be about the "No" vote winning the referendum...

[New Laikland]

Appropriate, in celebration of union.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBQAoJd7Yno

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuU_CD9S3XM

Freedom feels wonderful!

[New Chalcedon]

Ah. Fair enough, then

Any particular idea why Glasgow was much more pro-indie than the rest of Scotland?

Well, technically Dundee returned the highest Yes vote.

But for Glasgow, which is where my mother, the only pro-Yes member of my family is from...

I would think it's a combination of Glasgow - particularly Glasgow-region industry - suffering badly under Thatcher, and many traditional social democratic Glaswegians believing particularly strongly that Conservative-led UK governments can no longer represent their political interests. I disagree - obviously - that the latter should be enough reason to vote for independence, but it's an argument that seems to hold particular force in some of the traditional working-class urban centres of Scotland; including Glasgow and Dundee.

Ah, thank you.

Basically, when you work out the margin of error (typically around 10%), you post the result that would make the most controversy because news.

That's what the headlines might say - "YES VOTE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE!", for instance.

But the polling outfit always reports the median of their MoE vote - which means that they're 5% (inching close to 6% as the gap widens with late returns) off from the actual result...which is unusually large.

I do find one aspect particularly intriguing...the polls consistently painted a close "Yes" win - about 5% separating the "Yes" and "no" votes. Instead, the margin is about 10% - "Yes" 45%, "No" 55%.

I wonder why? Was it sampling errors, deliberate bias (nothing sells papers like a horse-race election, not a snoozer), some variant of the Bradley effect in play ("No" voters claiming to be undecided or "yes" voters out of some sense of social pressure), or something else?

Because "No" overtook a further lead in Edinburg.

I'm sorry, I don't understand.

[The balkens]

Appropriate, in celebration of union.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBQAoJd7Yno

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuU_CD9S3XM

Freedom feels wonderful!

they do have freedom.

[Liriena]

I do find one aspect particularly intriguing...the polls consistently painted a close "Yes" win - about 5% separating the "Yes" and "no" votes. Instead, the margin is about 10% - "Yes" 45%, "No" 55%.

I wonder why? Was it sampling errors, deliberate bias (nothing sells papers like a horse-race election, not a snoozer), some variant of the Bradley effect in play ("No" voters claiming to be undecided or "yes" voters out of some sense of social pressure), or something else?

I am intrigued by this as well. Going by the polls, I expected a far closer result, and more substantial victories for YES in YES-friendly areas.

I think it might have been a matter of some yes-leaning undecided feeling too insecure about an independent Scotland to risk it when the time to actually cast their ballots came. Kinda like in some elections, where from a plethora of candidates people will stick to the most familiar, simply because, even if they desire change to some degree, they are still too insecure to abandon the comfort of the familiar.

Anybody can vote for the radical option in a poll, but the ballot boxes are another matter entirely.

[Alyakia]

salmond tl;dr

decided not at this stage to become an independent country (alyakia note: so you better keep your vows)
lots of people voted for independence (alyakia note: so you better keep your vows)
democracy won (please accept it)
great turnout
i accept the result
keep your vows for more powers *crowd goes wild*
i met a 61 year old lady for voted for the first time and a former soldier and it was cool
i dont think things will be allowed to go back to business as usual in politics again
(special note: unionists getting at salmond being possibly the most charismatic UK politician at this time, lol)
foward!

Salmond making pro-independence comments, in a speech supposed to be about the "No" vote winning the referendum...

he's making statements about the people of scotland making a decision and going forward. if you think these are pro-independence that's probably your problem.

[The Republic of Pantalleria]

I'm not a Scot, I'm a New Zealander.

Oh, so you'd have been crying into second-rate beer, then. Most likely our exports.

<---Is Australian

So? We sell you our wine.

[Ainin]

Salmond making pro-independence comments, in a speech supposed to be about the "No" vote winning the referendum...

It's Salmond. I think that says enough.

[New Chalcedon]

Salmond making pro-independence comments, in a speech supposed to be about the "No" vote winning the referendum...

That man has no grace. A concession is supposed to be gracious, not an attempt to fire up for round #2....

[The Archregimancy]

I do find one aspect particularly intriguing...the polls consistently painted a close "Yes" win - about 5% separating the "Yes" and "no" votes. Instead, the margin is about 10% - "Yes" 45%, "No" 55%.

I wonder why? Was it sampling errors, deliberate bias (nothing sells papers like a horse-race election, not a snoozer), some variant of the Bradley effect in play ("No" voters claiming to be undecided or "yes" voters out of some sense of social pressure), or something else?

This is something I partially covered earlier in the thread...

Though I couldn't speculate on the cause, polling for referendums fairly consistently overestimates the 'Yes' vote. In 1995, for example, Yes went in to polling day with an apparent 6 point lead in Quebec.

See here for details: viewtopic.php?p=21784027#p21784027

[New Laikland]

they do have freedom.

The No vote won, haven't you seen?

[Ainin]

Salmond making pro-independence comments, in a speech supposed to be about the "No" vote winning the referendum...

That man has no grace. A concession is supposed to be gracious, not an attempt to fire up for round #2....

Goddamn money and ethnic votes.

[95X]

I've been following this from the West Coast of the United States, where over the last few hours I've been watching one of the BBC's online feeds and discussing this in the NS Sports IRC channel. This has definitely been history in the making.

Congratulations to those who won and commiserations to those who lost.

Maybe it's just me, or the fact that stuff's a bit different here, but when elections don't turn out the way I'd hoped (cough, 2000, 2004), we at least agree that life will still go on and we should be making the best of it.

I'd just like to implore everyone to be good to one another (Yes, I know the medium is NSG, I'm referring to regular life). Seriously, whether your side won or lost, or even if you have no opinion, tell your friends and those you care about how much you appreciate them. Take a deep breath if necessary. See the big picture that politics isn't everything. And just, generally, have a good day.

[The Archregimancy]

Moray is in; and has voted No.

That leaves the Highlands.

[New Chalcedon]

Oh, so you'd have been crying into second-rate beer, then. Most likely our exports.

<---Is Australian

So? We sell you our wine.

O, rly?

*toddles off to check teh interwebz for facts*