Malaysian Airliner crashes in Ukraine

[NERVUN]

And this is for you:
*** One week ban for flaming ***.

That seems a little harsh..unless it wasn't his first offense.

It wasn't.

[OMGeverynameistaken]

Justice requires evidence and due process. Right now, all we've got to go on is hearsay, speculation and an alleged 'confession' produced by the Ukrainians.

So maybe just cool your jets for a while and wait until some actual facts emerge from this mess.

So what are the facts then? Hmm? We know that there is a practical state of war there, the area is controlled by by pro-russians, plus Kiev was in contact with the plane, so what does that say?

That it was Colonel Mustard in the library with a pool cue.

None of that provides us with solid evidence that any party did anything. I have, however, said multiple times that I believe it was most likely a separatist group who shot the plane down.

[Organized States]

Russia wants to annex this region and the separatist rebels are in favor of that.

Still the Ukrainians or some one else would have had to have noticed. Satellite, Heli, Plane etc etc

You'd be surprised how easy it is to move that kind of stuff around. The Chinese moved almost a half million strong force into North Korea without being noticed by the UN (despite the UN doing daily surveillance flights) during the Korean War.

[The Serbian Empire]

Well, based off of this description, sounds like a textbook proxy attack.

Why, I couldn't tell you.

I can't think of a reason why Putin would give the separatists a ballistic missile system, especially a Buk. Putin would have known this would happen, even he's not that crazy. This is only going to get worse for Russia.

For eventual annexation of the separatist territory?

[Costa Fierro]

Could it be that Russians did this instead of the rebels given the reaction?

Russia really wouldn't have the motives to do it. Russians would also largely have the discipline to discern between military and civilian aircraft. As Russian separatists claimed to have shot down a Ukrainian military aircraft in the exact same area on the same day (and circumstantial evidence at this stage that alleges that the separatists didn't realize until they examined the wreckage that it wasn't military), I'd say with some confidence that the Russian separatists are responsible.

[The Serbian Empire]

Could it be that Russians did this instead of the rebels given the reaction?

Russia really wouldn't have the motives to do it. Russians would also largely have the discipline to discern between military and civilian aircraft. As Russian separatists claimed to have shot down a Ukrainian military aircraft in the exact same area on the same day (and circumstantial evidence at this stage that alleges that the separatists didn't realize until they examined the wreckage that it wasn't military), I'd say with some confidence that the Russian separatists are responsible.

I think the separatists got the equipment from the Russians, but weren't given the training to discern the military and civilian aircraft.

[Cyyro]

That seems a little harsh..unless it wasn't his first offense.

It wasn't.

Uh ok, makes sense. Good job.

[Costa Fierro]

Russia really wouldn't have the motives to do it. Russians would also largely have the discipline to discern between military and civilian aircraft. As Russian separatists claimed to have shot down a Ukrainian military aircraft in the exact same area on the same day (and circumstantial evidence at this stage that alleges that the separatists didn't realize until they examined the wreckage that it wasn't military), I'd say with some confidence that the Russian separatists are responsible.

I think the separatists got the equipment from the Russians, but weren't given the training to discern the military and civilian aircraft.

Both Ukraine and Russia use the Buk system and have them in inventories. It is likely that neither side received any training and therefore simply fired without actually knowing what they were firing at.

[Sin and Debauchery]

Could it be that Russians did this instead of the rebels given the reaction?

Russia really wouldn't have the motives to do it. Russians would also largely have the discipline to discern between military and civilian aircraft. As Russian separatists claimed to have shot down a Ukrainian military aircraft in the exact same area on the same day (and circumstantial evidence at this stage that alleges that the separatists didn't realize until they examined the wreckage that it wasn't military), I'd say with some confidence that the Russian separatists are responsible.

It wouldn't be the first time Russia shot down a civilian airliner: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007

Taking into account that the Russian Armed Forces, despite what Putin says, are in a largely dilapidated state, with lots of conscripts and nearly non-existing training, i can see the Russians accidentally shooting down the airliner.

[Lemanrussland]

The rebels captured Buk air defense systems from Ukraine a few weeks ago (on June 29).

That doesn't rule the possibility of Russia providing Buks to the separatists, but there is no evidence for that. So more than likely the system used (if it was the rebels who shot down the plane) was captured.

[Lalaki]

I think we need people who are neutral in the East-West conflict to investigate this. A lot of the speculation here seems to be opinion based.

[Organized States]

The rebels captured Buk air defense systems from Ukraine a few weeks ago (on June 29).

That doesn't rule the possibility of Russia providing Buks to the separatists, but there is no evidence for that. So more than likely the system used (if it was the rebels who shot down the plane) was captured.

Yup, my question is, did Russia supply the parts and ammunition for the older Buks taken out of Soviet Armories when the Rebels decided to put them back into use?

[The Serbian Empire]

I think the separatists got the equipment from the Russians, but weren't given the training to discern the military and civilian aircraft.

Both Ukraine and Russia use the Buk system and have them in inventories. It is likely that neither side received any training and therefore simply fired without actually knowing what they were firing at.

Yep, it's bad news when untrained rebels can get SAM systems so easily.

[Costa Fierro]

The rebels captured Buk air defense systems from Ukraine a few weeks ago (on June 29).

That doesn't rule the possibility of Russia providing Buks to the separatists, but there is no evidence for that. So more than likely the system used (if it was the rebels who shot down the plane) was captured.

Well, it's looking increasingly likely that the rebels did actually shoot the plane down, on the basis that the Russians and the Ukrainians would have had the training to familiarize themselves with how the Buk system worked, not to mention (at this stage) circumstantial evidence indicating that the rebels had shot at and down an aircraft that they thought was a Ukrainian military one.

[The Serbian Empire]

The rebels captured Buk air defense systems from Ukraine a few weeks ago (on June 29).

That doesn't rule the possibility of Russia providing Buks to the separatists, but there is no evidence for that. So more than likely the system used (if it was the rebels who shot down the plane) was captured.

Well, it's looking increasingly likely that the rebels did actually shoot the plane down, on the basis that the Russians and the Ukrainians would have had the training to familiarize themselves with how the Buk system worked, not to mention (at this stage) circumstantial evidence indicating that the rebels had shot at and down an aircraft that they thought was a Ukrainian military one.

The question is does three weeks of training provide enough experience to identify civilian craft from military ones? The answer is probably not.

[Costa Fierro]

The rebels captured Buk air defense systems from Ukraine a few weeks ago (on June 29).

That doesn't rule the possibility of Russia providing Buks to the separatists, but there is no evidence for that. So more than likely the system used (if it was the rebels who shot down the plane) was captured.

Yup, my question is, did Russia supply the parts and ammunition for the older Buks taken out of Soviet Armories when the Rebels decided to put them back into use?

They weren't in armories. Both Russia and Ukraine use the system as part of their aerial air defense network.

[Trygg]

I can't think of a reason why Putin would give the separatists a ballistic missile system, especially a Buk. Putin would have known this would happen, even he's not that crazy. This is only going to get worse for Russia.

For eventual annexation of the separatist territory?

You may need to think about this for a few seconds before jumping to conclusions. Lets play out your scenario. Putin gives a missile system to Russian militants. Militants proceed to shoot down a passenger aircraft unaffiliated with any nation involved in the Ukraine crisis. Almost two hundred people die. Everyone blames Russia. Russia proceeds to invade Ukraine. Do you have any idea how this would make Russia look? Putin might as well reinstate gulags and political purges, tell the world, and then ask the EU and NATO "What you gonna do about it". Obviously, not something Putin wants to happen. Still not convinced? We shall continue the scenario. The Russian invasion would undoubtedly lead to a bloody war, likely to be prolonged by Russian sympathizers in Ukraine fighting Ukrainian nationalists far after the conflict has ended. IE: Afghanistan all over again. Ask anyone in Russia about Afghanistan, and you'll realize why Putin doesn't want that to happen, let alone give unstable separatists a high tech ballistic weapon.

[Shofercia]

"If". Thus far we have no idea who shot down the plane, and I'm certain that it wasn't Russia. That leaves two parties. If there's malice, it's most likely Kiev. Malice hasn't been proven. Without malice, it's 50/50 between Kiev and the Rebels. Isolating Russia over this seems a tad absurd. This is why the World Community should determine whether malice was involved, before taking any actions. Using this tragedy to drive a wedge between Russia and Europe, prior to any investigation whatsoever, seems absurd.

It's not about the recent incident with this plane, but about Russia's foreign policy in general.

Such as? What, outside of Ukraine, are you unhappy with? Putin saving Americans millions of dollars by preventing America's entry into the Syrian Civil War, and then throwing Obama a lifeline by making Assad destroy some of his chemical weapons? Putin criticizing the No Fly Zone, and warning about disaster in Libya which, btw, occurred?

You're pretty spot on about an increase in anti-Russian sentiment.

The only people I've heard here who really take Russia's side on this already have a usually left leaning, decidedly anti-Western stance on any issue of foreign policy. They are a minority and though Russia doesn't like it, Europe is increasingly likely to stand for itself politically.

Anti-Russian sentiment has been on the rise for the past few years as relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated.

http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/ ... g-poll.pdf

I suspect Russia will not fair well in the next edition of this poll.

Edit: Found the 2014 edition, unfortunately the poll was conducted mostly before the events in Ukraine.

Negative views of Russia now average 45 per cent across the countries polled in 2013 and 2014. They largely outweigh positive views (31%), and have gone up four points since 2013. The worsening opinion of Russia is a general trend observed in many different countries across all continents, led by Kenya (up 16 points), Spain (up 15 points), Brazil (up 13 points), and Canada (up 12 points).

Yes, those aren't good results, but Ukraine is as bad as it gets. Unless, of course, the US/EU opt to escalate.

Really, you have concrete proof? Yeah, didn't think so. It would make no sense for Russia to target a plane from a friendly state.

I agree, that makes no sense at all. An attack with the intent to shoot down the plane can be ruled out I think. Still, Russia can be held accountable for arming the rebels, which gave them the opportunity to get their hands on high-tech equipment like this, that should never be used by people who aren't fully trained and authorized to use it.

Ukraine has even less reason to shoot down any plane, since the rebels have no planes - therefore it would make little sense to believe it is a rebel plane. Ukraine would be stupid to down a Russian plane since it would mean war with Russia and their inevitable destruction, and even more stupid to down a European carrier - risking the loss of support from their most important ally. Note that the Ukrainians haven't shot down a single plane so far - why start now? Next to that, a rebel commander claimed the downing of a Ukrainian transport airplane minutes after contact was lost with this plane on his Twitter. An accident, therefore, in which the plane was mistaken for a Ukrainian transport by rebels, seems the most likely scenario. An accident made possible by severe Russian negligence.

Ukraine could've moved the BUKs out of Novorossiya, like I've been saying, repeatedly. Russia didn't give the BUKs to the Rebels. If Russians are negligent in giving the Rebels weapons, wouldn't Kiev be even more negligent in leaving the BUKs in Novorossiya? And if the Rebels have no planes, why move the BUKs into Donetsk, especially after Putin stated that Russia won't invade Ukraine if Ukraine begins to genuinely negotiate with the Rebels?

...And do what? 1)Break all relations with Russia? 2)Go to war with Russia so that Oligarchs that happen to be pro-Western can stay in power in Ukraine? If Russia was attacking some little country that's all pro-Human Rights, that'd be one thing. But this isn't Russia going after the Czech Republic. This is Russia 3)reannexing land, 4)part of which Ukraine stole in 1994, and 5)opting to support a power faction in Ukraine that's not supported in the West. The West is supporting Oligarchs, who are far from ideal "Human Rights" activists.

1) Of course not. Embassies and other institutions are great avenues to insert intelligence agents into the country.
2) No, but we can always help the Ukrainian government crush the insurrectionists. Then of course there is support our people within Russia. Should the situation ever end up, in the far future, deeming it, we could also fund groups that would...be a hindrance on Russian security.
3 &4) Irredentism is never cool. Also didn't Russia drop its claims in the late 90's?
5) Hence why we need to check Russia. They are trying to stop the expansion of the Western SOI.

2) Military aid? That'll simply place Russia in China's camp, allowing China to be a lot more aggressive. It'll also kill off what's left of the West-Russia ties, at least the genuine ones. And the Russian military could send in the special forces, operating as Rebels. Ukraine's not worth it.
3/4) Not sure about those claims, but those claims weren't Russian to drop. Zero Sevastopolians voted for Yeltsin, so his administration didn't have the right to take away Sevastopol's vote, anymore than the government of Virginia can take away the voting rights of Californians in California. Also, if the people living there want it, Russia wants it, and all sides would benefit, why not? Yes, it should've been done better, no argument there, but if Crimea & Sevastopol were ignored for two decades by Kiev, if more than 3/4ths of the Crimeans voted for it, and if more than 3/4ths of Russians want it, why not? It only went to Ukraine over political games in Moscow.
5) You're expanding it to Russia's doorstep. This really isn't worth a major confrontation for the US/EU. By shrinking Russia's sphere of influence in Europe, you're expanding China's sphere of influence in Asia. And if Russia rents their submarine fleet to China, then China would have enough firepower to annex Taiwan.

[Organized States]

Yup, my question is, did Russia supply the parts and ammunition for the older Buks taken out of Soviet Armories when the Rebels decided to put them back into use?

They weren't in armories. Both Russia and Ukraine use the system as part of their aerial air defense network.

Weren't there a large number of Buks in storage nearby?

[Costa Fierro]

They weren't in armories. Both Russia and Ukraine use the system as part of their aerial air defense network.

Weren't there a large number of Buks in storage nearby?

I don't know. I doubt that it would be though.

I also read some heresay about the Americans coming out and confirming that their omnipotent tracking systems registered an SAM launch and registered an explosion consistent with a SAM hit against an aircraft.

[Shofercia]

Just a career question: how much does it pay to be a KGB troll ? Maybe it pays well ?

Typical Russophobic response to them being totally discredited is typical. I'm just glad that people like you aren't in charge of any country's nuclear policy, although you guys can run the nukilar policy all day long.

Just a career question: how much does it pay to be a KGB troll ? Maybe it pays well ?

85 rubles though Shofercia doubtless earns an extra for his sheer dedication.

A perfect wage to survive in California

Kids, I don't like working for governments. It's called the private sector, and it's fucking awesome

85 rubles though Shofercia doubtless earns an extra for his sheer dedication.

People attack the poster when they have nothing useful to add.

It was a tragedy and we still don't know what happened (except from bias sources like Ukraine's interior ministry) let's wait and see. The fact that so many instantly go on anti-Russian tirades is proof of the dangerous current of Russophobia in our time.

And anyone who dares to call out their Russophobia is instantly branded a part of the Kremlin's web brigade, which makes their claims more pathetic than McCain's run for presidency.

It was a tragedy and we still don't know what happened (except from bias sources like Ukraine's interior ministry) let's wait and see.

Russian backed Cossacks claimed responsibility for this.

The fact that so many instantly go on anti-Russian tirades is proof of the dangerous current of Russophobia in our time.

Ooh, let's roll out the Russophobia wagon.

According to Ukraine's government, which has been blaming Russia for all sins under the Sun, repeatedly. And yeah, if there are people calling posters "Kremlin trolls", it's 100% legit to call a Russophobe, a Russophobe. Tell me Costa Fierro, if someone said "oh hey, let's nuke New Zealand's most sparsely populated space" and actually meant it, is that someone who loves New Zealand very much?

Notice how quick everyone starts blaming Russia or anyone pro Russian? great job turning this into politics, the west has no heart.

Plane is flying over pro-Russian stronghold. Plane is shot down over said stronghold. Doesn't take much to guess who may be responsible.

Hmm... Ukraine military deploys air defence battalion to Donetsk on Wednesday. Ukraine is currently suffering its worst defeat of the entire war. Ukrainian troops and citizens have been subjected by their government and media to a relentless campaign of deranged fear-mongering. Ukrainian troops are constantly told that Ukrainian forces have been attacked by Russian troops and Russian planes. For some unfathomable reason, a Malaysian airliner deviates from the Mariupol route used by airliners over the previous days and instead follows a flight path that takes it straight over Donetsk. Against this backdrop, freshly-arrived Ukrainian air defense troops detect an unidentified aircraft moving toward their position from the west. Should anybody surprised by what happens next?

See, I can do that too. Now, why don't we get some facts before speculating, eh? Does that sound good?

[The Klishi Islands]

I think we need people who are neutral in the East-West conflict to investigate this. A lot of the speculation here seems to be opinion based.

You're right. Papua New Guinea to the rescue!

[Costa Fierro]

I think we need people who are neutral in the East-West conflict to investigate this. A lot of the speculation here seems to be opinion based.

You're right. Papua New Guinea to the rescue!

Black Cannibal Jesus shall rise again to save us!

[Shofercia]

Where have Russia and the US blamed separatists?

If anything, the Russian state media is blaming the Ukrainians.

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2014/07/17/official-malaysian-plane-shot-down-over-ukraine.html?comp=7000023435700&rank=1

Later, Putin said Ukraine bore responsibility for the crash, but he didn't address the question of who might have shot it down and didn't accuse Ukraine of doing so.
"This tragedy would not have happened if there were peace on this land, if the military actions had not been renewed in southeast Ukraine," Putin said, according to a Kremlin statement issued early Friday. And, certainly, the state over whose territory this occurred bears responsibility for this awful tragedy."

But U.S. intelligence assessments suggest it is more likely pro-Russian separatists or the Russians rather than Ukrainian government forces shot down the plane, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

Well, at least US and Russian officials have the balls to say that they don't know. Now can we please put the Civil War on hold and have the UNSC investigate?

2nd The weapons were not taken from Russia they were given.

They were taken from Kiev's force by the Rebels.

So, given this thread is 36 pages in, is there a general consensus on what actually happened?

The general consensus is that we should investigate.

[The Serbian Empire]

Just a career question: how much does it pay to be a KGB troll ? Maybe it pays well ?

The KGB doesn't pay well. I tried to get a contract with them and they never exceeded 1000 rubles a month. That's $28.70 a month.