Ukraine Crisis II: Electric Boogaloo

[Ethel mermania]

all i know if i were estonian i would be worried

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSB ... 9?irpc=932

[Alien Space Bats]

This whole "unidentified local self-defense forces" spectacle makes me wonder if the PR China is taking any notes in regards to Taiwan. Or at least some disputed Japanese/Philippino islands.

That might be halfway useful... if anyone actually LIVED on any of those disputed landmasses.

More seriously, though, I doubt that the Chinese possess Russia's taste for brazen violations of international law.

[The blood ravens]

all i know if i were estonian i would be worried

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSB ... 9?irpc=932

Unless Putin has a death wish he won't mess with Estonia.

[Volnotova]

This whole "unidentified local self-defense forces" spectacle makes me wonder if the PR China is taking any notes in regards to Taiwan. Or at least some disputed Japanese/Philippino islands.

This is why I think China is "supporting" (or at least not opposing) Russia in the Crimea crisis and why the weak western response is so dangerous.

The seemingly relative indifference of China's elite is not a simple case of apathy.

In fact, I fully suspect them to eventually support Russia's (Putin's) territorial claims/disputes in return for the Kremlin supporting their interests when it comes to China's East Asian territorial claims.

This is even more dangerous when taking into account the slowing down of Chinese economic growth: The Chinese elite could divert attention by asserting Chinese territorial claims, through force.

[Volnotova]

all i know if i were estonian i would be worried

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSB ... 9?irpc=932

Unless Putin has a death wish he won't mess with Estonia.

Depends on just how far Western elites are willing to go to enforce their geo-political interests.

[Ethel mermania]

This whole "unidentified local self-defense forces" spectacle makes me wonder if the PR China is taking any notes in regards to Taiwan. Or at least some disputed Japanese/Philippino islands.

That might be halfway useful... if anyone actually LIVED on any of those disputed landmasses.

More seriously, though, I doubt that the Chinese possess Russia's taste for brazen violations of international law.

honestly i think they do. they still talk about the shame and humiliation they suffered in the last century. they may be right, but foreign policy built on avenging humiliation never ends well.

[Kouralia]

Unless Putin has a death wish he won't mess with Estonia.

Depends on just how far Western elites are willing to go to enforce their geo-political interests.

Estonia is a member of NATO, and plays host to the NATO Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence. Failure to act in that situation would be tantamount to every NATO member state signing a document to dissolve NATO.

[Greed and Death]

This whole "unidentified local self-defense forces" spectacle makes me wonder if the PR China is taking any notes in regards to Taiwan. Or at least some disputed Japanese/Philippino islands.

That might be halfway useful... if anyone actually LIVED on any of those disputed landmasses.

More seriously, though, I doubt that the Chinese possess Russia's taste for brazen violations of international law.

China wont invade Taiwan, because they need Taiwan intact in order to reap the benefits of it. A Taiwan that fights China tooth and nail would be worthless by the time the Chinese won.
Bombed out industry, technology, and public infrastructure. Most of the younger educated population would be dead, disabled, or imprisoned from the fighting.

[OMGeverynameistaken]

Once the first wave lands, the airspace is going to be swarming with NATO forces. Putin's not going to risk the embarrassment of a Russian force stranded in Moldova. Even if they don't get cut off, they're still left with the problem of supplying forces in the region.

A quick look at the Moldovan airport pages on Wikipedia (there are only 5 operational airports in the country, and two of those are listed as 'unclear' status...I'm not sure what that means,) indicates that there are 4 airports capable of landing an Il-76. Two of those have rather short runways and are probably unmaintained (hence their 'unclear' status,) a third is a military airbase (landing there would probably be a bad idea,) and the third is Moldova's international airport. Chisinau International has ONE runway. I hope the mighty Russian war machine is familiar with holding patterns, because all those VDV troops and airborne APCs people are envisioning are going to be waiting for a while.

Chisinau International isn't located in a particularly convenient area for access to the disputed region and, quite frankly, I don't think that Putin, however blatant his seizure of part of Ukraine might have been, is going to try outright annexing a landlocked, avowedly neutral, country of minimal strategic value which is surrounded by states that don't like Russia, one of which is a NATO member. And really, Moldova's top export is sunflower seeds. Most of which they already sell to Russia anyway.

So yeah, accepting that Putin is a megalomaniac with plans for world domination, I don't think he's going to lubricate the conquering Russian steambearroller with sunflower oil.

I guess I want clear enough, VDV is Russia's paratroopers, and BMD's are air-droppable with crew inside, so basically the Il-76 simply has to fly over Moldova. but you have a point, Putin is a smart man, he wouldn't risk conflict over sunflower seeds.

You still need to supply paratroopers, and BMDs are thirsty.

And there's a very good reason the last big paradrops were in WWII.

[Greed and Death]

I guess I want clear enough, VDV is Russia's paratroopers, and BMD's are air-droppable with crew inside, so basically the Il-76 simply has to fly over Moldova. but you have a point, Putin is a smart man, he wouldn't risk conflict over sunflower seeds.

You still need to supply paratroopers, and BMDs are thirsty.

And there's a very good reason the last big paradrops were in WWII.

Even in a cold LZ paradrops result in 20% injuries.

[Breadknife]

And there's a very good reason the last big paradrops were in WWII.

Not sure how you'd classify "big paradrops", but I recall the Suez Crisis featuring paratroop deployment by at least two of the nations involved...

[Scholmeria]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RxSzSWbcxo
I though all the time that she was a corrupt gas princess who had good relations with Putin.

[Baltenstein]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RxSzSWbcxo
I though all the time that she was a corrupt gas princess who had good relations with Putin.

You would think that politicians would have learned to watch their words when they are talking about Ukraine-related topics over the phone by now.

Seriously, where do the Russians get all those leaks from?

[Natalia Poklonskaya]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RxSzSWbcxo
I though all the time that she was a corrupt gas princess who had good relations with Putin.

She's fucking nuts if she thinks she can actually defeat the entire Russian Armed Forces.

[Occupied Deutschland]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RxSzSWbcxo
I though all the time that she was a corrupt gas princess who had good relations with Putin.

Russia Today.
Ehnope. Conversation either didn't happen, or didn't happen as that 'leak' sounds.

[Alien Space Bats]

Seriously, where do the Russians get all those leaks from?

When you have freedom of movement through someone else's territory (not to mention sympathizers out the ass), it's not hard to tap all the phones.

Russia Today.
Ehnope. Conversation either didn't happen, or didn't happen as that 'leak' sounds.

This is one case where I have no doubt the data is genuine: Two Ukrainians talking about how angry they are that their country has been ass-raped by Russia.

But the amazing thing here is what's to come: Russia and all of its apologists will express outrage over the Ukrainians' outrage and cite this as further evidence of their need to bring the Ukraine to heel. That's the thing about brutes: It's not enough to brutalize their victims; they have to then have their victims express their fawning gratitude over having been brutalized in turn.

[Occupied Deutschland]

Russia Today.
Ehnope. Conversation either didn't happen, or didn't happen as that 'leak' sounds.

This is one case where I have no doubt the data is genuine: Two Ukrainians talking about how angry they are that their country has been ass-raped by Russia.

But the amazing thing here is what's to come: Russia and all of its apologists will express outrage over the Ukrainians' outrage and cite this as further evidence of their need to bring the Ukraine to heel. That's the thing about brutes: It's not enough to brutalize their victims; they have to then have their victims express their fawning gratitude over having been brutalized in turn.

It seems Tymoshenko did confirm the conversation took place (though she said the latter part of it was edited). Color me a bit surprised.

But yes, I don't exactly see how it isn't understandable. She's been a large proponent of friendly ties with Russia/Putin in the past, having part of the country conquered by them/him must be a rather brutal wakeup call. Not exactly prone to inspire a fawning attitude for the Russian Federation.

In fact, it's almost like having your country invaded can cause an outbreak of nationalist fervor that can even dip into extremism focused against the invaders. Who ever would have guessed (Besides me, like four hundred pages ago, in this thread's predecessor)? Great job breaking it, Putin/Russia. It's perfectly plausible, hell it's downright likely, Svoboda and Pravy Sektor become much more powerful forces in the country (hell, Tymoshenko's admission of the leak as being legit could even be viewed as her VOLUNTARILY associating herself with anti-Russia nationalist Ukrainian sentiment) now that Russia's carved out a chunk of their opposition and proved them entirely correct in their sentiments and concerns over Russian influence in government and designs on Ukrainian territory.

If anti-Russia sentiment takes off to a greater extent in Ukraine than it already had, Russia has no one to blame but themselves.

[Scholmeria]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RxSzSWbcxo
I though all the time that she was a corrupt gas princess who had good relations with Putin.

You would think that politicians would have learned to watch their words when they are talking about Ukraine-related topics over the phone by now.

Seriously, where do the Russians get all those leaks from?

well, there is a great 5th column in Ukraine and the Baltics (8 millions Russians in Ukraine and many more russophile Ukrainians), so to inflitrate in the government would not be so hard. There are ceratinly many Yanukovychs relicts in the Ukrainian establishment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RxSzSWbcxo
I though all the time that she was a corrupt gas princess who had good relations with Putin.

She's fucking nuts if she thinks she can actually defeat the entire Russian Armed Forces.

Maybe I have a wrong impression, but she is speaking more of anger and because she is desperate of Russians occupying her country.

[Scholmeria]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RxSzSWbcxo
I though all the time that she was a corrupt gas princess who had good relations with Putin.

Russia Today.
Ehnope. Conversation either didn't happen, or didn't happen as that 'leak' sounds.

well, Tymoshenko claims the last part was edited, so You are right.

[Priory Academy USSR]

If anti-Russia sentiment takes off to a greater extent in Ukraine than it already had, Russia has no one to blame but themselves.

You're saying that as if it would be a problem for the Russian government. Having fervently anti-Russian fascists in power would only weaken the position of Ukraine in Crimea (and if Putin pushes it, Eastern Ukraine as a whole).

[Baltenstein]

If anti-Russia sentiment takes off to a greater extent in Ukraine than it already had, Russia has no one to blame but themselves.

You're saying that as if it would be a problem for the Russian government. Having fervently anti-Russian fascists in power would only weaken the position of Ukraine in Crimea (and if Putin pushes it, Eastern Ukraine as a whole).

Pretty much, an electoral victory of Swoboda/Right Sector is the best Putin can hope for. The Ukrainian military will still be no match for Russia and he will have a boogey-man to point at and claim that protecting Crimea from the Fascist Banderist hordes was totally the right thing to do.

[Scholmeria]

Another anti-Ukrainian rand comes from Gregory Gysi, parliamentarian in the German Bundestag of the party Die Linke (successor of the former SED party that ruled East Germany for about 40 years; literary the party is translate as "the Left") who said that Ukraine is ruled by fascist and saying lies about the suppose progroms of Russians which is bullshit. Given that he and his party are a Cold War relic it is not wondering.

Thanks God Merkel beated the Left in most former East German Federal states and made the party even more weaker.

[Baltenstein]

Another anti-Ukrainian rand comes from Gregory Gysi, parliamentarian in the German Bundestag of the party Die Linke (successor of the former SED party that ruled East Germany for about 40 years; literary the party is translate as "the Left") who said that Ukraine is ruled by fascist and saying lies about the suppose progroms of Russians which is bullshit. Given that he and his party are a Cold War relic it is not wondering.

Thanks God Merkel beated the Left in most former East German Federal states and made the party even more weaker.

Many leftist parties across Europe harbor a truly strange love for Putin's Russia.

On the one hand, there's virtually nothing a democratic socialist could possibly find pleasant about Russia's crony capitalism, entaglement between church and state, heavy-handed jingoism and reactionary civil policies.

On the other, there's always the slight nostalgia for the Soviet Union and the vague notion that somehow, someone should defy American hegemony on the world stage (even if it means kicking weaker countries around).

[Baltenstein]

But yes, I don't exactly see how it isn't understandable. She's been a large proponent of friendly ties with Russia/Putin in the past, having part of the country conquered by them/him must be a rather brutal wakeup call. Not exactly prone to inspire a fawning attitude for the Russian Federation.

If anti-Russia sentiment takes off to a greater extent in Ukraine than it already had, Russia has no one to blame but themselves.

Compared to the US, who usually wage war against countries which, at least in the perception of the American public, are considered to be rogue states (Milosevic's Serbia, Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, Saddam's Iraq), Russia has a somewhat unique habit of invading countries that Russia itself sees as "fraternal nations" (Hungary in '56, Czechoslovakia in '68 and now Ukraine).

[Gravlen]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RxSzSWbcxo
I though all the time that she was a corrupt gas princess who had good relations with Putin.

You would think that politicians would have learned to watch their words when they are talking about Ukraine-related topics over the phone by now.

Seriously, where do the Russians get all those leaks from?

Edward Snowden *nod*

Is it a coincidence that Russia started invading other nations and listening in on phone calls just after he arrived? I think not!


Seriously though, if NSA has the means and ability to eavesdrop on phone calls, it's not surprising that Russia does it as well.