Ukraine Crisis II: Electric Boogaloo

[Thellonya]

For the pro russian/russian rebels: http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/h ... xJ1_cu0c7e

[Lemanrussland]

For the pro russian/russian rebels: http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/h ... xJ1_cu0c7e

I think it's funny they forgot to color in Kaliningrad.

So embarrassing.

[Gravlen]

Because it appears Russia is invading only with small military units that are mixed in with the rebels, rather than carrying out a full-scale invasion.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are Russian intelligence agents, military instructors and advisors in the Donbass right now.

The Ukranians are basically accusing the Russians of launching probing attacks along the border, the deepest apparently going to a depth of 30 km. I'm not so sure at the moment, but it seems many otherwise neutral nations (like Finland) have been convinced by satellite images collected by the US, which purportedly show Russian SPHs crossing the border and setting up firing positions in Ukraine, then going back across the border the next day.

Ukraine claims that a battalion of Russian soldiers has set up a base in the southeastern part of the country.

[Lemanrussland]

I wouldn't be surprised if there are Russian intelligence agents, military instructors and advisors in the Donbass right now.

The Ukranians are basically accusing the Russians of launching probing attacks along the border, the deepest apparently going to a depth of 30 km. I'm not so sure at the moment, but it seems many otherwise neutral nations (like Finland) have been convinced by satellite images collected by the US, which purportedly show Russian SPHs crossing the border and setting up firing positions in Ukraine, then going back across the border the next day.

Ukraine claims that a battalion of Russian soldiers has set up a base in the southeastern part of the country.

Yes, allegedly in Pobeda. I don't know if that is just an incursion or if they are "setting up an HQ" as the Ukrainians are saying.

[Lemanrussland]

Here's the latest map of the situation I've seen, in English.

http://lifeinua.info/wp-content/uploads ... 8_eng1.jpg

[Costa Fierro]

So Donestk is pretty much isolated?

[Wolfenium]

For the pro russian/russian rebels: http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/h ... xJ1_cu0c7e

I think it's funny they forgot to color in Kaliningrad.

So embarrassing.

No. They got Królewiec right.

[Gravlen]

An article by "notorious Russophobe Simon Shuster" on how the families of some killed and injured Russian soldiers are reacting to the silence from the Kremlin:

http://time.com/3198068/russian-soldiers-in-ukraine-put-pressure-on-putins-denials/

[Lemanrussland]

Well, it's pretty well known that there are Russian "volunteers" in Ukraine at the moment so it wouldn't surprise me if intelligence agents and advisers are present there. After all, don't some members of the Donbass leadership have ties to the FSB?

There have been far right groups in Russia organizing and sending over fighters since the crisis in Eastern Ukraine began. There are also apparently foreign fighters from Chechnya and Serbia in the region as well.

So Donestk is pretty much isolated?

Yes, though I'm quite sure the encirclement isn't completely water tight, there are probably fighters moving in and out of that area.

[Estruia]

For those who are interested, this is the newest dispatch from VICE News on the Ukraine crisis.

[The Lone Alliance]

-snip-.

Your views on this crisis seem different to mine, so I would like the chance to discuss it with you. Have you read my initial post?

Sure I"ll get on that.

I'm interested in following this crisis, so I thought I'd throw my hat into the ring in, so-to-speak, in this thread.

My general feeling is that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate,

While they're claims to power weren't conventional, the previous Administration proved itself to be very despotic in the end and by the end of it it had no legitimacy either.

and has no right to deny its eastern citizens their native tongue (Russian).

That language law was only added in by the previous president I believe so I'm wondering why they didn't rebel in all those years and years of not having Russian as an official language?

I praise Russia for supporting the self-defence of the Russian speaking Ukrainian easterners, however I am starting to feel as though the Russians are becoming belligerent in regards to the Ukrainian border.

I happen to disagree, I believe that if it wasn't for Russia's seizure of the Crimea this entire insurgency would have never happened. It's far more likely that the entire rebellion was supported by Russia in the beginning in order to gain a land bridge to Crimea.

To anyone planning a strategy around it then it does look like it would be an easy thing to do. The Crimea take over left large parts of Ukraine's military power bottled up in Crimea, the new government was in disarray from the change of power leaving the chain of command disrupted, and since much of Ukraine's armed forces trained with Russia in the past and held many people who supported the previous president, their loyalty to the new government would be questionable.

On paper it would been easy enough to pull a repeat of Crimea, just lock down the region, surround any loyalists, wait for them to surrender, then move in and annex after they pull out.

The fact that the first elite unit they sent to the Rebels just handed everything to them and switched sides would have only added to that belief.

I'm sure the rebels and Putin both believed that Ukraine would be forced to the table to hand over just enough to give them East Ukraine and the land bridge to Crimea.

I guess, like the last group of rebels who used a red and blue saltire flag, they believed that the government would just realize it would be too much work and let them go.

Instead Ukraine doesn't know how to give up and now this has turned into a proxy war by Russia, and Russia's now committed to East Ukraine even as both sides destroy everything of value there.

This escalation is more than likely frustration from Ukraine not giving up, no matter what losses the rebels inflict Ukraine just seem to get more volunteers to fill the ranks, and thanks to the rising Anti-Russia feeling and volunteers pouring in, this might end up becoming a new Spanish Civil War. Neither side can stop this war because it's an ego thing now.

Ukraine 'has' to win in East Ukraine because to do otherwise would lead to the end of Ukraine as a functioning country, and Russia has to win because they promised to protect Russian speakers and if they don't they'll have left East Ukraine out to dry, not to mention Crimea is nearly impossible to maintain without land access.

I strongly condemn the annexation of Crimea, as a flagrant violation of Russia's legal commitments to the denuclearization treaty.

I find it an act of war and quite frankly see this as a good enough excuse for Ukraine to withdraw from any nuclear treaty and seek the means to become a nuclear power as soon as possible.

I would like to see the west and Russia put pressure on the Ukrainian government to abandon the anti-Russian policies,

They are completely right in having anti-Russian policies. Russia annexed Crimea and is more or less the only reason the Rebellion in the east has been able to maintain itself.

followed by the repatriation of Crimea into the Ukrainian state, whereupon elections should be held for all of Ukraine's government and legislative posts. I would additionally imagine that future attempts at reconciliation would involve devolved power to Russian-speaking civil authorities in Donetsk, Lugansk, and Crimea.

Crimea was already effectively semi-independent from the beginning and look what they did with it.

To pacify the international situation, I would urge Russia to meet its legal commitments to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine,

That will never happen because Russia has no intention of ever handing Ukraine anything, if anything these recent events suggest that Russia plans to seize more land.

and urge a newly elected Ukrainian government to extend the lease of the land to Russia's black sea fleet base in Sevastopol.

They were going to have that lease anyway,
the new government wouldn't have revoked it because it's too good of a money maker for the region.

Though I heard rumors that China wanted the base instead.

[Germanic Templars]

For those who are interested, this is the newest dispatch from VICE News on the Ukraine crisis.

Huh..Attaching pliers to the nipples.....kinky.

Still video proves what I wanted to see about Donetsk and their "parade".

EDIT: BTW, thanks for linking.

[Sumshchyna]

For the pro russian/russian rebels: http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/h ... xJ1_cu0c7e

Do I get to slow clap now? And all the Russian majority speaking oblasts of Ukraine?

*slow clap*

[OMGeverynameistaken]

For the pro russian/russian rebels: http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/h ... xJ1_cu0c7e

I think it's funny they forgot to color in Kaliningrad.

So embarrassing.

I've produced a more accurate map:
http://i.imgur.com/plApIpQ.png

[The Lone Alliance]

For the pro russian/russian rebels: http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/h ... xJ1_cu0c7e

Do I get to slow clap now? And all the Russian majority speaking oblasts of Ukraine?

*slow clap*

If speaking the language of a nation makes you part of that nation automatically that means most of the planet belongs to Spain and the UK.

So that's the problem? The Russian speaking parts of Ukraine believe that just because they speak Russian that the land they're in is automatically Russia's?

I guess the slow clap is all they can do.

I think it's funny they forgot to color in Kaliningrad.

So embarrassing.

I've produced a more accurate map:
http://i.imgur.com/plApIpQ.png

No No, wait don't you see, this is obviously proof that NATO intends to wage an evil war of aggression to invade Kaliningrad!!!!

Of course with the food import ban there might soon be a Humanitarian disaster in Kaliningrad.

Obviously NATO need to ready a Humanitarian Aid convoy to rescue them just like Russia did for Luhansk.

[Costa Fierro]

I think it's funny they forgot to color in Kaliningrad.

So embarrassing.

I've produced a more accurate map:
http://i.imgur.com/plApIpQ.png

Why is Romania kebabs?

[Kouralia]

I've produced a more accurate map:
http://i.imgur.com/plApIpQ.png

Why is Romania kebabs?

They're questionably kebab.

[Lemanrussland]

Why is Romania kebabs?

They're questionably kebab.

No, they are of strong Roman blood, descendants of Trajan.

[Mefpan]

Why is Romania kebabs?

They're questionably kebab.

I think there's someone who takes offense to that.

[Baltenstein]

They're questionably kebab.

I think there's someone who takes offense to that.

He certainly liked making literal Kebab out of Kebabs.

[Kaizara]

Full scale war in the making?

[Mefpan]

Full scale war in the making?

I've read the article title as "Crisis deepens as Pope reveals himself to be Catholic, Bears are found to shit in woods and water has recently been proven to be wet".

No, seriously. This isn't even news anymore. I don't think anyone's trying to reasonably deny it at this point beyond the obligatory diplomatic-head-shaking and pointing-at-convenient-distractions-in-the-sky. We're just shouting at each other as loudly as possible without getting moderative flak for creatively denouncing and insulting the factions of this conflict we dislike.

[Gravlen]

Russian authorities still deny that Russians are involved in Ukraine, and Putin recently said that Russia "cannot talk about any ceasefire conditions whatsoever" since they're not involved.

Meanwhile, the US, NATO and the Polish are saying clearly what they think is going on: Russian invasion and war in Europe.

The US:

U.S. officials also said Russian troops were directly involved in the latest fighting, despite Moscow's denials.

Intelligence now indicates that up to 1,000 Russian troops have moved into southern Ukraine with heavy weapons and are fighting there, a U.S. official told CNN on Thursday.

U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt also said Thursday that Russian soldiers were directly involved in the fighting, alongside the pro-Russia rebels.

"Russian supplied tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and multiple rocket launchers have been insufficient to defeat Ukraine's armed forces, so now an increasing number of Russian troops are intervening directly in the fighting on Ukrainian territory," he said on Twitter.

"Russia has also sent its newest air defense systems including the SA-22 into eastern Ukraine and is now directly involved in the fighting."

NATO:

NATO believes well over 1,000 Russian troops are operating inside Ukraine, a NATO military officer said on Thursday.

The officer, briefing reporters on condition of anonymity, referred to the Russian actions as "incursions" rather than an invasion.

"We assess well over 1,000 Russian troops are now operating inside Ukraine," he said at NATO's military headquarters in southern Belgium. "They are supporting separatists (and) fighting with them."

http://news.yahoo.com/over-1-000-russian-troops-operating-ukraine-nato-120622806.html

Western intelligence agencies have evidence that the Russian army is directly operating in eastern Ukraine, Poland's prime minister said on Wednesday.

"Nobody can seriously accept talk of "separatists" in Ukraine anymore," Donald Tusk told parliament, adding that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has over the past day gathered "very solid confirmation" that the Russia military has entered Ukraine.

"The information is from NATO and confirmed by our intelligence, and is basically unambiguous," he said.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/poland-russian-army-operating-in-ukraine-20140827-00084#ixzz3Bh5BD18U

Considering how Russian troops have been captured in Ukraine, and how rebel leaders multiple times have confirmed the presence of Russians, it's hard to argue for the position held by Moscow. A recent addition:

Prime Minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) Alexander Zakharchenko said that around 3-4 thousand Russian volunteers were fighting for DPR militia.

“Many of them have left the republic, but the majority stayed here,” he said in an address on Russian TV news channel Rossiya 24.

...

“Current servicemen are also fighting in our ranks, as they came to us to struggle for our freedom instead of their vacations. This is characteristic only for Russians,”

But wait, he's just claiming that the soldiers are really just freelancing while on vacation!

East Ukrainian pro-Russian separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko said serving Russian soldiers, on leave from their posts, are fighting Ukrainian troops alongside the rebels, Russian state television reported.

"Among us are fighting serving soldiers, who would rather take their vacation not on a beach but with us, among brothers, who are fighting for their freedom," said Zakharchenko in an interview posted on Vesti.ru, the Internet site of a Russian state television station.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/28/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-soldiers-idUSKBN0GS0N120140828

Valentina Melnikova, the head of Russia’s Soldiers’ Mothers Committee, has a different view on how voluntary all of this is:

Russian conscripts are forced to sign contracts saying they’re volunteering to fight with the separatists, said Melnikova, and “if the guys refuse to sign, their commanders sign the paperwork for them.”

She had accused the entire high command, along with Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Putin of invading Ukraine and of committing a crime against Russian citizens by sending Russian soldiers to "the bloody battlefields" without declaring the war, without signing legal papers with the servicemen, without letting Russian mothers know where exactly their drafted sons ended up dying. The day before, Russian servicemen were fighting shoulder to shoulder with pro-Russian separatists in Novoazovsk, a strategic port city on the Russian border. By taking over Novoazovsk, the separatists cleared the way for more servicemen to pour into Ukraine. “According to our expert analyses,” said Melnikova – and few organizations have better information than hers – “ there are over 10,000 Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine today."

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/28/russian-moms-denounce-putin-s-not-so-secret-ukraine-invasion.html

Ella Polyakova, a member of President Vladimir Putin's advisory council on human rights, said on Thursday she believed Russia was carrying out an invasion of Ukraine. "When masses of people, under commanders' orders, on tanks, APCs and with the use of heavy weapons, (are) on the territory of another country, cross the border, I consider this an invasion," Polyakova told Reuters.

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

Full scale war in the making?

Kiev resorting to hyperbole to cover it's military losses.

[Constantinopolis]

As a supporter of the Russian side in this conflict, I really am wondering what is Russia's strategy here. The rebels are obviously going to lose if left on their own. So, what is to be done? Full-scale invasion? That would have disastrous consequences in terms of Russia's relations with the West, but then again one might argue that there is not much left to lose. The West is going to adopt a virulent anti-Russian stance in the coming years anyway, so Russia might as well say "fuck it" and drive its tanks over the border in full force. It's highly unlikely that any other country will go to war against Russia over this, so, other than facing an economic embargo (which it is probably going to face anyway), Russia should be fine.

On the other hand, this would be a massive blow to Russia's international image, and, depending on how far west into Ukraine they go, they might have to deal with a nationalist insurgency. Worst of all, it is very hard to make friends and build diplomatic alliances after you've just used naked military force to defeat a hostile neighboring government. That makes all your proposals from now on look like "an offer you can't refuse". Other countries in the Russian sphere may have second thoughts about the Eurasian Union project. It's not worth taking Eastern Ukraine if it means losing all of Central Asia, for example.

So what are the other options? Continued covert support for the rebels, perhaps, combined with waiting for winter (and hoping it is long and harsh). Let's see how brave the Ukrainian nationalists feel when Russian gas gets turned off and they freeze. Maybe that could force them to sign a "heat for land" deal. Then again, maybe not. What if the conflict just drags on for another year?

Another possibility would be to say "good game, well played" and allow the Kiev government to reconquer the Donbass, perhaps in exchange for some symbolic concessions so that Russia can save face. After all, it's not clear that an independent Novorossiya would be of much benefit to the long-term goal of pushing back US and EU influence in Ukraine. Furthermore, the Kiev government - in submission to the EU and IMF - is enacting some extremely unpopular economic policies, and so far this war has been a great way for the government to keep people distracted while it is screwing them over and robbing them of their future. Without the war, popular anger may turn against Poroshenko and his brutal austerity measures in a few months. So Russia could just pull back and wait for the Kiev government to collapse under popular pressure (again), perhaps creating an opening for the pro-Russian side this time.