US Senate Elections thread, 2014 Edition!

[Espresso and Insanity]

Trust me, I'm crossing my fingers for a Grimes victory as well. I don't want to imagine the idea of McConnell being Senate Majority Leader. But, unfortunately, Grimes has polled poorly enough for that "idea" to probably be a reality by the time the new senate is sworn in.

OFFtopic: You came to late, you would have qualified for ''Best newcomer'' (Poster awards).

Haha, thanks.

[Nigerian Kenya]

Calling the final Tossups

I'm ready to call the final three toss-ups.

First, in the North Carolina Senate Race, Hagan seems to have run out the clock. She still leads Tillis just barely (Average: Hagan +1.00), and goes into election day with the edge. North Carolina Senate moves to Lean D

Second, I am predicting defeats for both incumbents in Kansas. Both races should be close, and it's definitely not out of the question that we could see recount(s) here. My average for the Senate race ends at Orman +0.75, and my average for the Governor's race finishes at Davis +3.33. Kansas could very well turn red at the last minute and reelect its incumbents, but both challengers go into election day with the edge. Kansas Sen moves to Lean I, Governor to Lean D.

This sets my 'final' senate prediction at 52-48 or 53-47 R depending on how Orman caucuses. My gubernatorial prediction finishes at 26-23-1 R. And I am also expecting a GOP net gain in the house of about 5-12 seats. The chance of a republican senate majority finishes at 75%.

Senate control will not be called on election night - I believe Louisiana Sen., Georgia Sen., and Georgia Gov. will all go to runoffs. The republicans are the favorites to win all three, though I reserve the right to edit that prediction anytime from the moment these races are projected by the networks to go to runoffs to the day of the runoff.

Tomorrow, sometime in the early afternoon, I will do a final check of my sources to make sure there isn't any surprise polling, and then officially lock these ratings in. As of right now, they are nearly locked in, but not quite. Then I'll simply wait for the polls to close, and see how close I come to the correct predictions. I do not expect to get every race right - somewhere, someplace, even the best predictors miss something. But I am confident that I will come close provided that there is not some big polling failure.

I want to thank all of you who shared your predictions. It has been a great time, and no matter what happens tomorrow, I hope to see all of you take a second jab at it in 2016.

~Nigerian Kenya

[West Aurelia]

Republicans have 70% chance of taking the Senate - The New York Times.

According to our statistical election-forecasting machine, the Republicans have a moderate edge, with about a 70% chance of gaining a majority.

[Greed and Death]

Republicans have 70% chance of taking the Senate - The New York Times.

According to our statistical election-forecasting machine, the Republicans have a moderate edge, with about a 70% chance of gaining a majority.

(Image)

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/senate-outlook

Now at 79% GOP victory. The republican Ad 2 billion dollar blitz is taking its toll.

[Calimera II]

Let the Republicans win pleaaaase!

[Espresso and Insanity]

Let the Republicans win pleaaaase!

Let the Republicans win? It sounds as if you're asking the Democrats for a favor.

Joking aside, I'm hoping the GOP doesn't win a majority. It's likely that they will, but I'm trying to remain optimistic.

[Calimera II]

Let the Republicans win pleaaaase!

Let the Republicans win? It sounds as if you're asking the Democrats for a favor.

Joking aside, I'm hoping the GOP doesn't win a majority. It's likely that they will, but I'm trying to remain optimistic.

Well, if the Republicans lose, no side will be able to do something good.

[Espresso and Insanity]

Let the Republicans win? It sounds as if you're asking the Democrats for a favor.

Joking aside, I'm hoping the GOP doesn't win a majority. It's likely that they will, but I'm trying to remain optimistic.

Well, if the Republicans lose, no side will be able to do something good.

What do you mean?

[Calimera II]

Well, if the Republicans lose, no side will be able to do something good.

What do you mean?

The senate is Democrat, the House of representatives is Republican.

[Espresso and Insanity]

What do you mean?

The senate is Democrat, the House of representatives is Republican.

Yes, that's true. What makes you think that there would be less gridlock when the GOP controls both the house and senate?

[Cool Spring]

The Repubs have to get 6 seats correct?

[Terrordome]

Let the Republicans win pleaaaase!

On a side note I bet the repubs will stand fully behind hedge fund manager Paul singers efforts to push Argentina into another default and impound it's cadet ships.

[Calimera II]

Let the Republicans win pleaaaase!

On a side note I bet the repubs will stand fully behind hedge fund manager Paul singers efforts to push Argentina into another default and impound it's cadet ships.

Obama isn't doing any better, so who cares?

[Jinwoy]

It actually makes me scared that the Republicans still have a winning chance at anything. Seriously, how backward does one have to be...??

[Insaeldor]

It actually makes me scared that the Republicans still have a winning chance at anything. Seriously, how backward does one have to be...??

Only reasons repubs are winning is because most incumbents are Dems. This isn't really an anti-democrat pro-republican type of thing it an anti-incumbent kind of thing.

[Talanzaar]

Eh, theres always 2016. Get ready Republicans

[Insaeldor]

Eh, theres always 2016. Get ready Republicans

If they fuck this up be perpetrated for a democratic majority in 2016. Although I would also say that third parties are going to have one hell of a good time come 2016.

[Kelinfort]

Let the Republicans win pleaaaase!

Who gives a shit, they blow this two year time spend and 2016 and 2020 are going to be a blue tide. The ebbs and flows do nothing to help us and never have.

[Insaeldor]

Well I just finished voting here in Kansas.

Senate: voted for Greg Orman
House: voted for Chris Clemmons the Libertarian candidate.
Voted to keep all court officials in sense I've liked the performance of the courts in my state as of now.
Voted to repeal some constitutional ban that would prevent charitable raffles preformed by the legislature.

[Espresso and Insanity]

Well I just finished voting here in Kansas.

Senate: voted for Greg Orman
House: voted for Chris Clemmons the Libertarian candidate.
Voted to keep all court officials in sense I've liked the performance of the courts in my state as of now.
Voted to repeal some constitutional ban that would prevent charitable raffles preformed by the legislature.

If I may ask, why'd you vote Libertarian?

[Insaeldor]

Well I just finished voting here in Kansas.

Senate: voted for Greg Orman
House: voted for Chris Clemmons the Libertarian candidate.
Voted to keep all court officials in sense I've liked the performance of the courts in my state as of now.
Voted to repeal some constitutional ban that would prevent charitable raffles preformed by the legislature.

If I may ask, why'd you vote Libertarian?

Because Jenkins and Wakefield are both pretty shitty.

[Espresso and Insanity]

If I may ask, why'd you vote Libertarian?

Because Jenkins and Wakefield are both pretty shitty.

Fair enough, I suppose. You just don't seem like the type of person who'd vote for the Libertarians, given your political compass.

[Insaeldor]

Because Jenkins and Wakefield are both pretty shitty.

Fair enough, I suppose. You just don't seem like the type of person who'd vote for the Libertarians, given your political compass.

Socially I agree fully with the Libertarian party although they are far to Laissez-faire for my taste but I can reconcile those issues and support a libertarian.

[Insaeldor]

Oh and I voted for the Democrat Paul Davis for Governor.

[Espresso and Insanity]

Fair enough, I suppose. You just don't seem like the type of person who'd vote for the Libertarians, given your political compass.

Socially I agree fully with the Libertarian party although they are far to Laissez-faire for my taste but I can reconcile those issues and support a libertarian.

Well, I suppose I understand. Personally, I couldn't back a libertarian, but to each his own.