US Senate Elections thread, 2014 Edition!

[Insaeldor]

I suggest adding a poll on who people think will win.

Why? Anyone with a cable connection will tell you the GOP's going to win only thing we're stuck debating about is how many seats they will pick up.

[Nigerian Kenya]

My average for CO-GOV finishes so insanely close it's not even funny, at Hickenlooper +0.16%. I have honestly no clue what to do here, but my gut tells me Hickenlooper will eek out a win, so going with that provided no other polls are released. CO-GOV moves to Lean D.

The other 3 toss-ups (NC-SEN, KS-SEN, KS-GOV) will receive a call sometime tomorrow.

Here are my new senate odds for all interested:

Chance of the GOP winning the senate majority: 75%

Individual Chances of Victory:

SD - Rounds (R) - 90% (Weiland (D) - 7%, Pressler (I) - 3%)
AR - Cotton (R) - 90%
KY - McConnell (R, inc.) - 85%
CO - Gardner (R) - 65%
IA - Ernst (R) - 65%
LA - Cassidy (R) - 65%
AK - Sullivan (R) - 60%
GA - Perdue (R) - 60%
KS - Orman (I) - 55%
NC - Hagan (D, inc.) - 53%
NH - Shaheen (D, inc.) - 60%
NM - Udall (D, inc.) - 95%

[Arkinesia]

I'm a bit surprised at how quickly Georgia became competitive.

Nathan Deal won the governorship by ten points in 2010 but won't win by nearly as much. And that's assuming he wins, which doesn't look like a given right now.

David Perdue is barely above coin-flip chance of victory in a state Romney carried by nearly eight points just two years ago. If he wins, it won't be by a margin of that magnitude.

Georgia has been slowly trending back blue for about six years now but one of my friends who's big on political analysis was talking about maybe 2020 Georgia would be purple. Now it looks like it could very well be purple in 2016 and potentially leaning blue in 2020.

[Empire of Vlissingen]

I expect the Republicans to win.
I wonder how Obama would deal with that.

[Espresso and Insanity]

I'm a bit surprised at how quickly Georgia became competitive.

Nathan Deal won the governorship by ten points in 2010 but won't win by nearly as much. And that's assuming he wins, which doesn't look like a given right now.

David Perdue is barely above coin-flip chance of victory in a state Romney carried by nearly eight points just two years ago. If he wins, it won't be by a margin of that magnitude.

Georgia has been slowly trending back blue for about six years now but one of my friends who's big on political analysis was talking about maybe 2020 Georgia would be purple. Now it looks like it could very well be purple in 2016 and potentially leaning blue in 2020.

I'd say that both Deal and Perdue have a very good chance of winning, especially if a second round of voting happens, which also seems likely.

[New Bierstaat]

I'm a bit surprised at how quickly Georgia became competitive.

Nathan Deal won the governorship by ten points in 2010 but won't win by nearly as much. And that's assuming he wins, which doesn't look like a given right now.

David Perdue is barely above coin-flip chance of victory in a state Romney carried by nearly eight points just two years ago. If he wins, it won't be by a margin of that magnitude.

Georgia has been slowly trending back blue for about six years now but one of my friends who's big on political analysis was talking about maybe 2020 Georgia would be purple. Now it looks like it could very well be purple in 2016 and potentially leaning blue in 2020.

Perhaps, but the closeness of the race has more to do with the strong candidacy of Michelle Nunn and the gaffes made by David Perdue. I still expect the Republican candidate to carry Georgia in 2016, and Johnny Isakson starts out safe as well unless he retires or blows it.

[Valica]

As a Kentuckiana native, I am really only watching the Kentucky election.

Mitch said it wasn't his job to bring jobs to Kentucky, so I'm surprised he still has support.
Alison Grimes seems pretty solid and she's a democrat. Republicans in these states are crazy.

Here's hoping Kentucky gets Grimes.

[Espresso and Insanity]

As a Kentuckiana native, I am really only watching the Kentucky election.

Mitch said it wasn't his job to bring jobs to Kentucky, so I'm surprised he still has support.
Alison Grimes seems pretty solid and she's a democrat. Republicans in these states are crazy.

Here's hoping Kentucky gets Grimes.

Unfortunately, her chances of winning are slim. She could pull of an upset victory, but most polls have indicated that such a event is unlikely.

[Valica]

As a Kentuckiana native, I am really only watching the Kentucky election.

Mitch said it wasn't his job to bring jobs to Kentucky, so I'm surprised he still has support.
Alison Grimes seems pretty solid and she's a democrat. Republicans in these states are crazy.

Here's hoping Kentucky gets Grimes.

Unfortunately, her chances of winning are slim. She could pull of an upset victory, but most polls have indicated that such a event is unlikely.

What? Last I checked, it was neck-and-neck.

[New England and The Maritimes]

CNN has been saying how Republicans are gonna "Win it all" pretty much nonstop lately. I don't see it. In fact, I see the GOP losing quite a bit of ground. Nothing has gone right for them, they're going to be booted out of probably half their governorships, the only thing they can keep is the house and that's because they cheated to get it in the first place. Senate races were "favoring Republicans" last election cycle and they didn't even make a dent.

[Espresso and Insanity]

Unfortunately, her chances of winning are slim. She could pull of an upset victory, but most polls have indicated that such a event is unlikely.

What? Last I checked, it was neck-and-neck.

It as about a month ago. But, Grimes made a few gaffes, and her popularity was short lived.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3485.html

[Espresso and Insanity]

CNN has been saying how Republicans are gonna "Win it all" pretty much nonstop lately. I don't see it. In fact, I see the GOP losing quite a bit of ground. Nothing has gone right for them, they're going to be booted out of probably half their governorships, the only thing they can keep is the house and that's because they cheated to get it in the first place. Senate races were "favoring Republicans" last election cycle and they didn't even make a dent.

But, they may also gain governorships, in places like Massachusetts, Arkansas, and maybe even Colorado. I, like you, am a bit sick of hearing the constant "we're going to win" rhetoric, but you just admit that the GOP will likely win a majority. Based off of polls and statistics, it's probable.

[New England and The Maritimes]

CNN has been saying how Republicans are gonna "Win it all" pretty much nonstop lately. I don't see it. In fact, I see the GOP losing quite a bit of ground. Nothing has gone right for them, they're going to be booted out of probably half their governorships, the only thing they can keep is the house and that's because they cheated to get it in the first place. Senate races were "favoring Republicans" last election cycle and they didn't even make a dent.

But, they may also gain governorships, in places like Massachusetts, Arkansas, and maybe even Colorado. I, like you, am a bit sick of hearing the constant "we're going to win" rhetoric, but you just admit that the GOP will likely win a majority. Based off of polls and statistics, it's probable.

A majority of voters in every state despise them. Sometimes I can't stand this country, honestly. I hope there's some mix-up and America nukes itself into oblivion.

[Espresso and Insanity]

But, they may also gain governorships, in places like Massachusetts, Arkansas, and maybe even Colorado. I, like you, am a bit sick of hearing the constant "we're going to win" rhetoric, but you just admit that the GOP will likely win a majority. Based off of polls and statistics, it's probable.

A majority of voters in every state despise them. Sometimes I can't stand this country, honestly. I hope there's some mix-up and America nukes itself into oblivion.

That's simply not true. Look, I despise the GOP, but you're ignoring just about every election analysis and poll when you say "the GOP can't win the senate." They may not do as well as expected, but I can't see the Democrats winning crucial states like Louisiana, Arkansas, Georgia, Colorado, and Iowa.

[New England and The Maritimes]

A majority of voters in every state despise them. Sometimes I can't stand this country, honestly. I hope there's some mix-up and America nukes itself into oblivion.

That's simply not true. Look, I despise the GOP, but you're ignoring just about every election analysis and poll when you say "the GOP can't win the senate." They may not do as well as expected, but I can't see the Democrats winning crucial states like Louisiana, Arkansas, Georgia, Colorado, and Iowa.

All of those races are minimum tied. It's well within margin of error, so saying you "can't see it" is absurd.

So, basically, in two years every single person in America looked at the GOP, how they've run everything into the ground on purpose, and said "Actually, I like these guys!"

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Welp, tomorrow are the elections in Texas and I don't have my voter ID card registration.

This sucks balls. Ah well, it's not like I have voted before anyways.

[Valica]

We should push to put down the broke horse that is the republican party.

Democrats have their faults, but at least they understand how the world works.
Republicans, as a whole, ignore facts and push archaic and idealistic policies that do nothing but hurt this country.

The democratic party will eventually split into a few parties, and we will see the republicans all but vanish.

To go the way of the whig.

[Valica]

It as about a month ago. But, Grimes made a few gaffes, and her popularity was short lived.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3485.html

It's 52 - 44 in a poll taken 15 days ago.
That isn't entirely representative of the actual vote, either.

Living in this state and knowing the people I do, many people who wouldn't normally vote plan on attending this election.
Most of the people I talked to say they plan on voting for Grimes because of what Mitch said about bringing jobs to KY.

Don't be surprised if Grimes pulls ahead.

[New England and The Maritimes]

It as about a month ago. But, Grimes made a few gaffes, and her popularity was short lived.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3485.html

It's 52 - 44 in a poll taken 15 days ago.
That isn't entirely representative of the actual vote, either.

Living in this state and knowing the people I do, many people who wouldn't normally vote plan on attending this election.
Most of the people I talked to say they plan on voting for Grimes because of what Mitch said about bringing jobs to KY.

Don't be surprised if Grimes pulls ahead.

I am not surprised by the absolute, supreme stupidity of the voting public anymore, honestly. Grimes might make it, but damn will it be tough, even in a state that has been run into the ground for decades by Republican after Republican.

[Valica]

I am not surprised by the absolute, supreme stupidity of the voting public anymore, honestly. Grimes might make it, but damn will it be tough, even in a state that has been run into the ground for decades by Republican after Republican.

I'm crossing my fingers and hoping she wins.
This state needs a democrat for a while.

Living on the border, I know that Indiana needs it more, but there is way less of a chance.
Any democrat Indiana gets won't get anything done.

[Nigerian Kenya]

But, they may also gain governorships, in places like Massachusetts, Arkansas, and maybe even Colorado. I, like you, am a bit sick of hearing the constant "we're going to win" rhetoric, but you just admit that the GOP will likely win a majority. Based off of polls and statistics, it's probable.

A majority of voters in every state despise them. Sometimes I can't stand this country, honestly. I hope there's some mix-up and America nukes itself into oblivion.

I'd like to point out that in the 2010 exit polls, 53% said they had an unfavorable view of the republican party. Why did the republicans do so well? Because the exact same number - 53% - had an unfavorable view of the democratic party. The people hated both parties, and simply voted for change. And that's likely to happen again tomorrow.

[Espresso and Insanity]

I am not surprised by the absolute, supreme stupidity of the voting public anymore, honestly. Grimes might make it, but damn will it be tough, even in a state that has been run into the ground for decades by Republican after Republican.

I'm crossing my fingers and hoping she wins.
This state needs a democrat for a while.

Living on the border, I know that Indiana needs it more, but there is way less of a chance.
Any democrat Indiana gets won't get anything done.

Trust me, I'm crossing my fingers for a Grimes victory as well. I don't want to imagine the idea of McConnell being Senate Majority Leader. But, unfortunately, Grimes has polled poorly enough for that "idea" to probably be a reality by the time the new senate is sworn in.

[Oil exporting People]

Well this thread fail apart.

CNN has been saying how Republicans are gonna "Win it all" pretty much nonstop lately. I don't see it. In fact, I see the GOP losing quite a bit of ground. Nothing has gone right for them, they're going to be booted out of probably half their governorships, the only thing they can keep is the house and that's because they cheated to get it in the first place. Senate races were "favoring Republicans" last election cycle and they didn't even make a dent.

I'm not trying to be a jerk, but what are you smoking? Even left-wing pollsters and the Democrats themselves are admitting this is a Republican year. Unless something major happens in the next 24 hours, the Senate is going GOP.

Sometimes I can't stand this country, honestly. I hope there's some mix-up and America nukes itself into oblivion.

So you want hundreds of millions of innocent people to die because they exercised their right to elect their own officials? Words can't describe how messed up that is. I'm being honest in saying this, but you need help if you really believe this. If you were joking, ask yourself if Holocaust jokes are funny because what you proposed is just as much a genocide.

[Calimera II]

I'm crossing my fingers and hoping she wins.
This state needs a democrat for a while.

Living on the border, I know that Indiana needs it more, but there is way less of a chance.
Any democrat Indiana gets won't get anything done.

Trust me, I'm crossing my fingers for a Grimes victory as well. I don't want to imagine the idea of McConnell being Senate Majority Leader. But, unfortunately, Grimes has polled poorly enough for that "idea" to probably be a reality by the time the new senate is sworn in.

OFFtopic: You came to late, you would have qualified for ''Best newcomer'' (Poster awards).

[The 502nd SS]

Welp, tomorrow are the elections in Texas and I don't have my voter ID card registration.

This sucks balls. Ah well, it's not like I have voted before anyways.

I voted for the first time on Friday