US Senate Elections thread, 2014 Edition!

[New Bierstaat]

There are currently no vacant seats in the Senate.

Oh, what about the ones in the House? Why are they vacant?

Two of the three were vacated by Congressmen who got high-paying private sector jobs; the third seat was held by Eric Cantor, who resigned after losing his primary.

[West Aurelia]

Oh, what about the ones in the House? Why are they vacant?

Two of the three were vacated by Congressmen who got high-paying private sector jobs; the third seat was held by Eric Cantor, who resigned after losing his primary.

I see. Thanks for the clarification.

[New Bierstaat]

US Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) has gone up with a new TV advertisement that makes her look more desperate than ever: it ties challenger Thom Tillis (R) to the 2013 Trayvon Martin shooting (which happened in Florida). I don't understand the point of doing such a thing. Does she really think such a preposterous thing will drive the black turnout she needs? Also, Hagan leads in almost every poll. Why would she commit such a mistake from a position of strength?

If the polling average is inside a point by Election Day, I may flip North Carolina's call in Tillis's favor even if Hagan still leads. I have a little bit of a feeling that the remaining undecideds in this race won't look too favorably on that ad.

Also, I may flip my call in Kansas. I never moved it past Leans R on the premise that Sen. Pat Roberts would bounce back, and he had plenty of time to do so (and, for a while, was), but he's plateaued at a tie or small deficit against independent Greg Orman. I'm still skeptical that a bright red state (that's in no danger of changing its partisan affiliation) would kick out a GOP senator in a GOP year when they've got a chance to retake the Senate, but not as skeptical as I was.

I voted early last Saturday. I did get at least one mailer (from the Bruce Rauner campaign) encouraging me to vote, but nothing from Jim Oberweis's campaign. I ended up voting for Rauner, but even for this Republican, it was a tough choice. I respect and trust Pat Quinn and support the job he's done and the moderate path he's charted, but I just done want to see the third Illinois governor in a row get hauled away to prison. It still wouldn't be the end of the world if Quinn won, by any means.

[Insaeldor]

Just wanted to tell you guys thanks for keeping track of the races they have been very informative. All I can really say is that based on Canpaign advertisements alone Pat Roberts looks extremely desperate to keep a hold of his seat as things like his age, committee attendance record, housing status, and time in government are all coming into question. And instead of combating those issues he basicly just throws out ads that say "Greg Orman is democrat!" With no other substance aside from some slander about his past business dealing (which may or may not be true but I'm not incline to believe a Roberts ad) and the gubernatorial race isn't much different. From what I'm seeing the campaign have divulged into wether you want your second amendment rights or you want a better education fund. Sam's been playing defense from what I've seen and from the polls Davis has anywhere between a 3-5 point edge over Brownback which is well outside the margine of error.

It will be funny to see Kansas blue this time around seeing as my whole political life has been in a red Kansas and knowing that Kansas hasn't done that well compared to other states it might be nice to see what change will bring about.

[New Bierstaat]

With Election Day 3 days away, it's time to further separate the competitive from the uncompetitive. To that end, it's time for some rating changes, particularly on the Democratic side.

As much as Republicans probably wanted to send Al Franken home due to his extreme partisanship and his outright ridicule and open hatred for conservatives (he wrote a book called "Rush Limbaugh Is a Big Fat Idiot", extremely unbecoming of a United States Senator), among other things, a strong challenger never materialized. I'm of the opinion that even Michele Bachmann, who I believe is sixty years old and is obviously pretty far right, could have mounted a better challenge than did Mike McFadden, due in part to name recognition stemming from her run for president in 2012. Now, Bachmann is retiring, presumably to build a career writing books or lobbying (or both).

Even in the fairly purple state of Minnesota in a GOP year when its perennial swing district in Duluth is poised to swing back to the GOP, they won't be knocking off the Senate's least bipartisan Democrat. Get ready for another six years of Al Franken, Republicans' most hated senator other than perhaps Harry Reid or Dianne Feinstein.

MN - Franken: Safe D

Next, in Oregon, Monica Wehby was touted by the Republicans as the best candidate they'd had there in a long time. She looked strong coming out of the primary, but news released during the primary that she'd been accused of domestic violence stopped her momentum, which she never really regained. She's been down by as much as 20% in recent polling, and people who are down by that much with three days left tend to lose, badly. I don't think I have to say much more about this one other than that if the GOP would have been able to keep it and a few other states competitive, they'd have been looking at a possible gain well into the double digits.

OR - Merkley: Safe D

Next, in New Mexico, Tom Udall (cousin of liberal Democratic Sen. Mark Udall in Colorado) was, for most of this cycle, looked at as invulnerable. However, former state GOP Chairman Allen Weh (R), a strong candidate, is pulling closer and could technically pull out a win, though it'd easily be the biggest upset of the cycle if he did.

NM - Udall, T.: Likely D

Lastly, it's pretty clear that the race in Michigan is over. Even RCP, which still has 10 tossups and only calls a race if there's a huge lead, has the race at Likely D, and I don't see a path to victory for former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. This one's staying blue; it's too bad for the GOP that Reps. Dave Camp and Justin Amash both passed on this seat, which either one would be leading handily.

MI - (Levin): Safe D

Again, I may flip North Carolina if the last round of polls this weekend warrants it.

[Espresso and Insanity]

With Election Day 3 days away, it's time to further separate the competitive from the uncompetitive. To that end, it's time for some rating changes, particularly on the Democratic side.

As much as Republicans probably wanted to send Al Franken home due to his extreme partisanship and his outright ridicule and open hatred for conservatives (he wrote a book called "Rush Limbaugh Is a Big Fat Idiot", extremely unbecoming of a United States Senator), among other things, a strong challenger never materialized. I'm of the opinion that even Michele Bachmann, who I believe is sixty years old and is obviously pretty far right, could have mounted a better challenge than did Mike McFadden, due in part to name recognition stemming from her run for president in 2012. Now, Bachmann is retiring, presumably to build a career writing books or lobbying (or both).

Even in the fairly purple state of Minnesota in a GOP year when its perennial swing district in Duluth is poised to swing back to the GOP, they won't be knocking off the Senate's least bipartisan Democrat. Get ready for another six years of Al Franken, Republicans' most hated senator other than perhaps Harry Reid or Dianne Feinstein.

MN - Franken: Safe D

Next, in Oregon, Monica Wehby was touted by the Republicans as the best candidate they'd had there in a long time. She looked strong coming out of the primary, but news released during the primary that she'd been accused of domestic violence stopped her momentum, which she never really regained. She's been down by as much as 20% in recent polling, and people who are down by that much with three days left tend to lose, badly. I don't think I have to say much more about this one other than that if the GOP would have been able to keep it and a few other states competitive, they'd have been looking at a possible gain well into the double digits.

OR - Merkley: Safe D

Next, in New Mexico, Tom Udall (cousin of liberal Democratic Sen. Mark Udall in Colorado) was, for most of this cycle, looked at as invulnerable. However, former state GOP Chairman Allen Weh (R), a strong candidate, is pulling closer and could technically pull out a win, though it'd easily be the biggest upset of the cycle if he did.

NM - Udall, T.: Likely D

Lastly, it's pretty clear that the race in Michigan is over. Even RCP, which still has 10 tossups and only calls a race if there's a huge lead, has the race at Likely D, and I don't see a path to victory for former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. This one's staying blue; it's too bad for the GOP that Reps. Dave Camp and Justin Amash both passed on this seat, which either one would be leading handily.

MI - (Levin): Safe D

Again, I may flip North Carolina if the last round of polls this weekend warrants it.

What do you mean when you say "flip North Carolina?" Do you currently regard it as a toss up, or a state that leans democratic?

[Nigerian Kenya]

Races will be moved around over today, sunday, and monday as PPP releases its final polls. This will include moving all races out of toss-up, and possible other changes. On election day, probably around Noon CST, I'll make any last-minute changes, then lock up the ratings, and wait for the polls to close...

First, a few changes to make before the slew of polls begins:

Moving to Leans D
IL-GOV
NH-SEN

Moving to Leans R
WI-GOV

Remaining Toss-Ups
KS-SEN
NC-SEN
KS-GOV
CO-GOV
MI-GOV
FL-GOV
CT-GOV

[Espresso and Insanity]

Races will be moved around over today, sunday, and monday as PPP releases its final polls. This will include moving all races out of toss-up, and possible other changes. On election day, probably around Noon CST, I'll make any last-minute changes, then lock up the ratings, and wait for the polls to close...

First, a few changes to make before the slew of polls begins:

Moving to Leans D
IL-GOV
NH-SEN

Moving to Leans R
WI-GOV

Remaining Toss-Ups
KS-SEN
NC-SEN
KS-GOV
CO-GOV
MI-GOV
FL-GOV
CT-GOV

If I may ask, why did you move the Wisconsin race to the "Leans R" category. Burke isn't that far behind in most polls...

[Nigerian Kenya]

Races will be moved around over today, sunday, and monday as PPP releases its final polls. This will include moving all races out of toss-up, and possible other changes. On election day, probably around Noon CST, I'll make any last-minute changes, then lock up the ratings, and wait for the polls to close...

First, a few changes to make before the slew of polls begins:

Moving to Leans D
IL-GOV
NH-SEN

Moving to Leans R
WI-GOV

Remaining Toss-Ups
KS-SEN
NC-SEN
KS-GOV
CO-GOV
MI-GOV
FL-GOV
CT-GOV

If I may ask, why did you move the Wisconsin race to the "Leans R" category. Burke isn't that far behind in most polls...

Because she's been consistently trailing, even if it's only by small margins, and her last internal also showed her slightly behind.

And now ready to make a couple more changes:

CT-GOV to Leans D
ID-GOV: Leans R to Strong Lean R

[New Bierstaat]

With Election Day 3 days away, it's time to further separate the competitive from the uncompetitive. To that end, it's time for some rating changes, particularly on the Democratic side.

As much as Republicans probably wanted to send Al Franken home due to his extreme partisanship and his outright ridicule and open hatred for conservatives (he wrote a book called "Rush Limbaugh Is a Big Fat Idiot", extremely unbecoming of a United States Senator), among other things, a strong challenger never materialized. I'm of the opinion that even Michele Bachmann, who I believe is sixty years old and is obviously pretty far right, could have mounted a better challenge than did Mike McFadden, due in part to name recognition stemming from her run for president in 2012. Now, Bachmann is retiring, presumably to build a career writing books or lobbying (or both).

Even in the fairly purple state of Minnesota in a GOP year when its perennial swing district in Duluth is poised to swing back to the GOP, they won't be knocking off the Senate's least bipartisan Democrat. Get ready for another six years of Al Franken, Republicans' most hated senator other than perhaps Harry Reid or Dianne Feinstein.

MN - Franken: Safe D

Next, in Oregon, Monica Wehby was touted by the Republicans as the best candidate they'd had there in a long time. She looked strong coming out of the primary, but news released during the primary that she'd been accused of domestic violence stopped her momentum, which she never really regained. She's been down by as much as 20% in recent polling, and people who are down by that much with three days left tend to lose, badly. I don't think I have to say much more about this one other than that if the GOP would have been able to keep it and a few other states competitive, they'd have been looking at a possible gain well into the double digits.

OR - Merkley: Safe D

Next, in New Mexico, Tom Udall (cousin of liberal Democratic Sen. Mark Udall in Colorado) was, for most of this cycle, looked at as invulnerable. However, former state GOP Chairman Allen Weh (R), a strong candidate, is pulling closer and could technically pull out a win, though it'd easily be the biggest upset of the cycle if he did.

NM - Udall, T.: Likely D

Lastly, it's pretty clear that the race in Michigan is over. Even RCP, which still has 10 tossups and only calls a race if there's a huge lead, has the race at Likely D, and I don't see a path to victory for former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. This one's staying blue; it's too bad for the GOP that Reps. Dave Camp and Justin Amash both passed on this seat, which either one would be leading handily.

MI - (Levin): Safe D

Again, I may flip North Carolina if the last round of polls this weekend warrants it.

What do you mean when you say "flip North Carolina?" Do you currently regard it as a toss up, or a state that leans democratic?

Leans Democratic currently. The Republican, however, is within striking distance and could take the lead by Election Day.

[Espresso and Insanity]

If I may ask, why did you move the Wisconsin race to the "Leans R" category. Burke isn't that far behind in most polls...

Because she's been consistently trailing, even if it's only by small margins, and her last internal also showed her slightly behind.

And now ready to make a couple more changes:

CT-GOV to Leans D
ID-GOV: Leans R to Strong Lean R

Fair enough. But, as one who strongly dislikes Walker, I'm going to remain optimistic about Burke's chances, even if she seems unlikely to win.

And, I'm going to again question your analysis, since Malloy and Foley have both held leads in the polls in the last few months in Connecticut. The most recent poll said that Malloy has a slight lead, but some polls said the some for Foley days earlier. I'd say that the race between Malloy and Foley in Connecticut will go down to the wire, just as it did four years ago.

[Espresso and Insanity]

What do you mean when you say "flip North Carolina?" Do you currently regard it as a toss up, or a state that leans democratic?

Leans Democratic currently. The Republican, however, is within striking distance and could take the lead by Election Day.

I'll agree with you there.

[Nigerian Kenya]

Because she's been consistently trailing, even if it's only by small margins, and her last internal also showed her slightly behind.

And now ready to make a couple more changes:

CT-GOV to Leans D
ID-GOV: Leans R to Strong Lean R

Fair enough. But, as one who strongly dislikes Walker, I'm going to remain optimistic about Burke's chances, even if she seems unlikely to win.

And, I'm going to again question your analysis, since Malloy and Foley have both held leads in the polls in the last few months in Connecticut. The most recent poll said that Malloy has a slight lead, but some polls said the some for Foley days earlier. I'd say that the race between Malloy and Foley in Connecticut will go down to the wire, just as it did four years ago.

Again, in case I wasn't perfectly clear, I am making a call on EVERY toss-up race, which means moving every toss-up to at least the Leans Category between now and the election. I am more or less going off what the final polls say, which in CT points to a narrow Malloy win.

And, although I can barely believe I am doing it, I am moving KY-SEN from Leans R to Strong Lean R. The final polling seems to point to Grimes doing worse than Lunsford did in '08.....

[Talanzaar]

Any final prediction? Here are mine

Republicans easily take MO, SD and WV

Iowa - GOP
Colorado - GOP
North Carolina - DEM
Kansas - Independent
Georgia - Tossup, lean GOP (Will probably be run-off)
Kentucky - GOP
New Hampshire - DEM
Alaska - Tossup, lean GOP
Arkansas - GOP
Louisiana - GOP

52 Republicans (+7), 47 Democrats (-7), 1 Independent

[Nigerian Kenya]

It's time to make a call on Michigan and Florida governor. Both races remain extremely close and don't make me feel good about calling either one for either candidate, but I am just going to go with my averages and hope they prove correct. Florida will head to Leans D, for Fmr. Gov. Charlie Crist, and Michigan will head to Leans R, for incumbent Mark Snyder.

Remaining Toss-Ups
KS-SEN
NC-SEN
CO-GOV
KS-GOV

Most/all of these will receive a call on Monday (may issue a call on CO-GOV tonight)

[Greed and Death]

Huff post shows a 75% chance of the GOP taking the Senate.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/senate-outlook
I think the DNC's best chance is to boycott the polls this election giving the GOP congress less legitimacy when tussling with Obama over policy.

[Espresso and Insanity]

At the moment, here are some of my final predictions. I just wrote predictions for the "toss up" states, or states deemed competitive. So, don't expect to see predictions for states like Hawaii or Vermont, which are not up for grabs.

Alaska: Alaska's polling is notoriously inaccurate, which would explain the widely differing polls over the last few weeks. But, because Begich is an incumbent who has had leads in right leaning polls, like Rasmussen, I predict that he'll win by a slim margin. Ultimately, this race is still a toss up, but I do think the incumbent can win re-election.

Colorado: Udall has been polling poorly for a while now. However, Colorado's polls are known to favor the Democrats, and this was seen in their previous gubernatorial and senate elections. Regardless, Udall has yet to lead a poll in a while, so I think he will lose re-election, and that Gardner, the republican, will win. But, this race is still a toss up, and anything could happen.

Kansas: Roberts, the incumbent, is unpopular and has led very few polls. Orman, an independent, will likely win, but the election will still be close, and anything could happen. However, Orman promised to caucus with whoever the winning party is, meaning that he'll probably caucus with the Republicans.

Georgia: Even if Nunn beats Perdue in the first round of voting, I can't imagine that either candidate will win the 50% of the votes required to avoid a second round of voting. So, during the second round of voting, I presume that many of the Libertarians who voted for their canidate will vote for Perdue. The Republicans will probably win here, but the race is still one to look at.

Iowa: Polling has been fairly close for the last month, but most polls have showed Ernst, the Republican in the lead. This race will be close, but I believe the Republicans will take Iowa.

Kentucky: For a period of time, it seemed that Grimes, the Democrat challenging Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell, had a chance. But, she made a few gaffes, and Mitch McConnell is likely to hold onto Kentucky. This race could be close, but I'd be surprised if the Republicans lost here.

Louisiana: Even if the Democratic incumbent wins the first round, she'll have only won due to the splitting of the GOP vote. Two Republicans are running in the first round, meaning that in the second round of voting, the incumbent will have to go up against only one other person, significantly hurting her chances of winning re-election. This race could be close, but the GOP will likely win it.

New Hampshire: Scott Brown slowly increased his percentages in the polls, and almost caught up to the Democratic incumbent, Shaheen, a few weeks ago. But, recent polls have shown Scott Brown trailing behind Shaheen. So, I believe the Democrats will hold onto the Granite State, but this is still very much a toss up. Scott Brown has won in upsets before, he could do it again. Anyways, the Democrats will probably win re-election here, but keep an eye on this race.

North Carolina: Hagan, the Democratic incumbent, is vulnerable, but she has a narrow lead in the polls. She could be defeated, but I believe she'll likely, but not certainly, win re-election. The Democrats will probably hold onto the Tar Heel State, but by a narrow margin.

[Burleson]

I suggest adding a poll on who people think will win.

[Greed and Death]

At the moment, here are some of my final predictions. I just wrote predictions for the "toss up" states, or states deemed competitive. So, don't expect to see predictions for states like Hawaii or Vermont, which are not up for grabs.



New Hampshire: Scott Brown slowly increased his percentages in the polls, and almost caught up to the Democratic incumbent, Shaheen, a few weeks ago. But, recent polls have shown Scott Brown trailing behind Shaheen. So, I believe the Democrats will hold onto the Granite State, but this is still very much a toss up. Scott Brown has won in upsets before, he could do it again. Anyways, the Democrats will probably win re-election here, but keep an eye on this race.
.

On New Hampshire I do not think Scott Brown was intended to win, I think he was intended to force the Democrats to divert resources to the state, which they did. Republicans have out raised the Democrats this election cycle(in both traditional funding and in PACs) so the Democrats have been forced to be more tactical in where they spend.

[Espresso and Insanity]

At the moment, here are some of my final predictions. I just wrote predictions for the "toss up" states, or states deemed competitive. So, don't expect to see predictions for states like Hawaii or Vermont, which are not up for grabs.



New Hampshire: Scott Brown slowly increased his percentages in the polls, and almost caught up to the Democratic incumbent, Shaheen, a few weeks ago. But, recent polls have shown Scott Brown trailing behind Shaheen. So, I believe the Democrats will hold onto the Granite State, but this is still very much a toss up. Scott Brown has won in upsets before, he could do it again. Anyways, the Democrats will probably win re-election here, but keep an eye on this race.
.

On New Hampshire I do not think Scott Brown was intended to win, I think he was intended to force the Democrats to divert resources to the state, which they did. Republicans have out raised the Democrats this election cycle(in both traditional funding and in PACs) so the Democrats have been forced to be more tactical in where they spend.

So, you're saying they purposely ran him to get the Democrats to spend in certain states? I have reason to doubt that.

[Espresso and Insanity]

I suggest adding a poll on who people think will win.

Seems a bit futile, since anybody who's glanced at the polls knows the Republicans will win.

[Greed and Death]

On New Hampshire I do not think Scott Brown was intended to win, I think he was intended to force the Democrats to divert resources to the state, which they did. Republicans have out raised the Democrats this election cycle(in both traditional funding and in PACs) so the Democrats have been forced to be more tactical in where they spend.

So, you're saying they purposely ran him to get the Democrats to spend in certain states? I have reason to doubt that.

In a certain state, that might have otherwise considered New Hampshire an easy win and diverted funds to other states that were contentious from the beginning.

[Myrensis]

Huff post shows a 75% chance of the GOP taking the Senate.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/senate-outlook
I think the DNC's best chance is to boycott the polls this election giving the GOP congress less legitimacy when tussling with Obama over policy.

Meh, all the DNC really can do is hunker down behind Obama's veto pen and wait till 2016 when Republicans are far more vulnerable in terms of seats and can't rely on low voter turnout, particularly among Democrats, to get them in.

Don't really think 'legitimacy' is going to be a particularly useful issue to either side, since after the behavior of the GOP over the last 6 years the battle lines are fairly clearly drawn. Either you believe that elections only count for anything if Republicans win, or you think it's time to give the Republicans a taste of their own medicine.

[Maineiacs]

So, you're saying they purposely ran him to get the Democrats to spend in certain states? I have reason to doubt that.

In a certain state, that might have otherwise considered New Hampshire an easy win and diverted funds to other states that were contentious from the beginning.

If your theory is correct, it must do wonders for Brown's ego to know that his Party considers him nothing more than a useful distraction.

[New Bierstaat]

At the moment, here are some of my final predictions. I just wrote predictions for the "toss up" states, or states deemed competitive. So, don't expect to see predictions for states like Hawaii or Vermont, which are not up for grabs.



New Hampshire: Scott Brown slowly increased his percentages in the polls, and almost caught up to the Democratic incumbent, Shaheen, a few weeks ago. But, recent polls have shown Scott Brown trailing behind Shaheen. So, I believe the Democrats will hold onto the Granite State, but this is still very much a toss up. Scott Brown has won in upsets before, he could do it again. Anyways, the Democrats will probably win re-election here, but keep an eye on this race.
.

On New Hampshire I do not think Scott Brown was intended to win, I think he was intended to force the Democrats to divert resources to the state, which they did. Republicans have out raised the Democrats this election cycle(in both traditional funding and in PACs) so the Democrats have been forced to be more tactical in where they spend.

I don't think so. The GOP spent more than the Democrats in New Hampshire, one of the few states where it had such an advantage.

Plus, New Hampshire is swingy, and Jeanne Shaheen is not a moderate, so on paper, she probably looked vulnerable.