US Senate Elections thread, 2014 Edition!

[New Bierstaat]

Two ratings changes to be made as I'm starting a new job in two days. I'm going to go ahead and make a call on all the races now just in case I don't have time later. I still reserve the right to change these later, though.

First off, Alaska has been clearly leaning the Republicans' way for some time now as Dan Sullivan (R) has consolidated much of the GOP base following the primary and Sen. Mark Begich's (D) numbers have fallen to around 41%. Begich has made a couple of mistakes of late after previously running an admirable campaign in one of the nation's reddest states. I probably should have changed this rating sooner, but it's time for the rating to reflect the true state of the race, which is about as competitive as New Hampshire or North Carolina (perhaps a bit more so due to notorious polling inaccuracies in the state). This represents the seventh pickup for Republicans.

AK - Begich: Leans R

Second, in Colorado, Cory Gardner's run a smart campaign, approaching the race as a blue state Republican in the mold of Scott Brown or Mark Kirk. A skillful campaigner and reliable conservative, Gardner could end up with presidential ambitions if he wins this seat. However, liberal incumbent Mark Udall benefits from changing demographics and the fact that Colorado has all-mail balloting. Gardner has the momentum as of now, leading in three straight polls, and although Sabato is skeptical of Gardner's ability to translate a slim Election Day advantage into a victory over the incumbent, Nate Silver lists the young congressman as a small favorite.

I'm really uncomfortable about counting out either candidate in this race, but I'm going to go with Gardner in this one due to the president's unpopularity, the GOP's slim lead in the generic ballot which I expect to grow or stay the same, the fact that Michael Bennet barely fended off a far weaker challenger in 2010, and the fact that Udall remains stuck around the president's approval clip while Gardner is surging. I feel crazy making a call on this election at all, but I've got to make sure a call's made by Election Day. This represents the eighth GOP pick-up.

CO - Udall: Leans R

Nigerian Kenya and all others who have offered their predictions, I have enjoyed prognosticating on this set of races together, and hopefully I'm back on by the big day, but if not, the best of luck to you all. Regardless, even if I do come back, this will probably be my last involvement in the General forum, so look for me in the NSG Senate RP if/when it restarts.

My (possibly final) map is here: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/3cz3x67ejz8jcu6/2014.svg

And here's the PNG version:

[Nigerian Kenya]

Long-Shot Republican Opportunities fading

It's time to lock in some races.

First off, in the Minnesota Senate Race, Mike McFadden (R) has proved to be a poor candidate, and nothing seems to be able to drown Sen. Al Franken (D). I kept this race on the board so long just to see if Larry Sabato's belief that it would be closer than expected turned out to be true, but it clearly isn't.

MN-SEN moves from Strong Lean D to Safe D

Meanwhile, in Michigan, Republicans have essentially conceded the senate race: The NRSC and other outside groups are pulling out - and however they try to spin it, it's clear that it's because the polling leads by Gary Peters (D) have gotten big enough that they believe Terri Lynn Land (R) no longer has a real chance. This was once one of the top races in the country, but republicans bungled it and it's time to lock it in.

MI-SEN moves from Strong Lean D to Safe D

Next up, in the Minnesota Governor's Race, Tea Partier Jeff Johnson (R) is continuing to show that he has no way of beating Gov. Mark Dayton (D), and this gets locked in as well. Part of this change is because I want to differentiate the race from MD - where I still see a chance for Larry Hogan (R) to pull off the upset over Anthony Brown (D), and this race, where I no longer see any path to victory for Mr. Johnson.

MN-GOV moves from Strong Lean D to Safe D

And to close off, Pat Quinn fans can cheer, as that race (IL-GOV) has now moved from Toss-Up/Tilt R to Toss-Up/Tilt D due to a change in the polling average.

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With these changes, the chance of a republican senate majority drops from 56% to 51%.

[Alien Space Bats]

I'm glad to see Land falling behind Peters in Michigan, but nobody here is ready to think of this race as a sure thing. Locally, the Democratic Party is sending out almost daily e-mails among the Party faithful for volunteers, and getting ready to crank up the GOTV machine as far as it will go.

Which, in a sense, puts Land in an even worse position: There's been very little effort by Republicans to build up their ground game, and the Land campaign is STILL too reliant on outside money (eg., money from the Kochs and AFP). Such money can buy them lots of airtime, but it cannot be used for GOTV efforts.

And that's where the Michigan Democratic Party is going now: They not only want Gary Peters to inherit Carl Levin's seat, but the BADLY want to beat Rick Snyder. The odds are still against them on that second objective, but if there's one effective strategy that can get them BOTH their goals, it's to mobilize their base and hit the polls hard.

ADDENDUM: We don't have early voting in Michigan, but for the first time ever the Democratic Party arranged to have me sent an absentee ballot application. Somehow, I don't think I'm alone in this. People have increasingly been using absentee ballots as a mechanism for early voting even though the law here doesn't really allow it. As many as 25% of all Michigan voters cast absentee ballots in 2012; I'd be interested in seeing what that percentage is this time around.

Surprisingly, Michigan Republicans haven't used their position in the Legislature to limit the use of absentee ballots in this way; that's probably in part to the fact that Snyder himself is not on board with such efforts. If Snyder loses in November, of course, I'd expect SOME effort by the Legislature to limit absentee voting in response to such "back door" efforts by Michigan voters to obtain for themselves what voters in many other States already have (and are in some places fighting hard to keep). If Democrats actually seize control of the Legislature (unlikely, but still possible), I'd expect them to expand such efforts.

Which brings me to this: In my 2012 Presidential thread, I spent the last 7-10 days scouring early voting and absentee voting reports; they ended up being the biggest (and best) predictor of a solid Obama victory. This time around, I'd recommend doing the same thing: Look at early and absentee voting, and compare them to 2010 and 2012 levels. If the Democrats do substantially better at whipping their troops into early voting compared to 2010, then expect them to beat the polls and pull off a miracle on Election Day; if they seem to be repeating their lackluster 2010 performance, start cracking the champagne bottles for the GOP.

[Nigerian Kenya]

Republicans have a sixth pickup leaning toward them, but senate control remains a Toss-Up

Ah, Alaska. Two months ago, Mark Begich seemed to be swimming against the tide, leading in poll after poll, and with the republican candidates hoping for the polling to be wrong come election day. But then the primary occured, with Attorney Daniel Sullivan defeating Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and 2010 nominee Joe Miller. Now, the opposite is occuring in the polling. Sullivan is leading Begich in poll after poll, in what first seemed to be a primary bounce but now seems to be a real lead. With time running short, I've decided to move this race out of Toss-Up, although I am still keeping a close eye on it. It remains competitive, and AK polling isn't always accurate.

AK-SEN moves from Toss-Up/Tilt R to Lean R

Even with this change, I am putting the chances of a republican senate majority at only 55%. While Republicans have six pickups between the Lean R and Safe R columns, they remain the underdog in Kansas, where it is still unclear who Orman would caucus with. Georgia and Kentucky also remain at only Lean R. Assuming the republicans get all the seats leaning toward them and don't pull off an upset in NH or NC, and Orman caucuses with the democrats, control of the senate will come down to two seats - Colorado and Iowa. Republicans seem to have tiny leads in both places, but the final outcome remains extremely unclear.

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My current estimation of the odds for all non-safe races is as follows:

State - Currently Favored Candidate - Chance of Victory:

SD - Mike Rounds (R) - 75% (Weiland (D) 15%, Pressler (I) 10%)
KY - Mitch McConnell (R, inc.) - 70%
AR - Tom Cotton (R) - 70%
GA - David Perdue (R) - 65%
LA - Bill Cassidy (R) - 60%
AK - Dan Sullivan (R) - 60%
IA - Joni Ernst (R) - 53%
CO - Cory Gardner (R) - 51%
NC - Kay Hagan (D, inc.) - 60%
NH - Jeanne Shaheen (D, inc.) - 60%
KS - Greg Orman (I) - 60%

[Oil exporting People]

With regards to the Senate race here in Virginia, I have yet to see any ads by Warner while I tend to see a Gillespie ad once or twice a day either on the TV or internet.

[Nigerian Kenya]

Senate Rating Changes - Republican chances increasing, but rising uncertainty among individual races

This week, 3 races are entering the Toss-Up Column.

First off, in KS, Pat Roberts (R, inc.) seems to be steadily gaining on Greg Orman (I), with some polls even showing Roberts ahead. While Orman remains a very slight favorite, a downgrade is still merited.

KS-SEN moves from Lean I to Toss-Up/Tilt I

In NC, a late Tillis surge has finally arrived, with the best result among the last five polls being Hagan +3. The rest show Hagan +1-2, or in the case of one poll, Tillis +1. The one poll that shows him ahead isn't junk either - it's from High Point University, which had a strong 2012 performance in National and NC Polling. The RCP average chart has showed Tillis gradually gaining after hitting a low point in Mid-September, and my new average of Hagan +1.56 is her smallest advantage in months. Republicans are definitely turning things around.

NC-SEN moves from Lean D to Toss-Up/Tilt D

And in NH, Scott Brown (R) is surging towards Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). While Brown has yet to see a reliable poll that actually shows him ahead, the average lead for Shaheen is the lowest it's been since last winter, at only Shaheen +2.77, and has been consistently trending downward for weeks. It's time to move this into the Toss-Up category.

NH-SEN moves from Lean D to Toss-Up/Tilt D

Also, while I'm not yet ready to declare SD a Toss-Up, Mike Rounds (R) is continuing to falter in the polling, and both the DSC and NRSC are treating the state as a serious contest for the first time in the entire cycle. While it still looks like Rounds will pull through due to split opposition, his chance of victory continues to fall.

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Republican Chances of a Senate Majority: 60%

Individual Chances of Victory (Non-Safe Races)

AR - Cotton(R) - 70%
KY - McConnell(R, inc.) - 70%
GA - Perdue(R) - 70%
LA - Cassidy(R) - 65%
AK - Sullivan(R) - 65%
SD - Rounds(R) - 65% (Weiland(D) - 20%, Pressler(I) - 15%)
CO - Gardner(R) - 55%
IA - Ernst(R) - 53%
KS - Orman(I) - 53%
NC - Hagan(D, inc.) - 53%
NH- Shaheen(D, inc.) - 55%

[Nigerian Kenya]

2014 Gubernatorial Races - Long-shot opportunities increasing

This list of gubernatorial rating changes contains good news for both parties.

First off, I am moving two previously Safe R races into more competitive territory.

In Idaho, even though it's a very conservative state, Gov. Butch Otter (R) has not satisfied the people of his state, and has only a 39% approval rating. Even among Republicans he's only at 57% approval. He was nearly primaried out of his job this past summer, and now he's up against A.J. Balukoff (D), who can easily show his moderate side by mentioning that he voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. A new poll, from (highly reliable) PPP, shows Otter just 4 points ahead of Baulkoff (39-35), albeit with heavy undecideds and 3rd party support. However, even taking out the third party candidates only boosts Otter's lead to 9 points, and still holds him under 50%. In what is normally a very boring state, this is a contest to watch.

ID-GOV moves from Safe R to Lean R

In Oklahoma, Gov. Mary Fallin (R) is another one that could go down despite her state's heavily republican political leanings. Her opponent, Joe Dorman (D) is a state representative from a district that is more conservative than Oklahoma as a whole. Dorman has been running a smart campaign, focusing almost exclusively on fiscal conservatism, education, and gun rights (he's more conservative than Fallin there, and earns an A+ rating from the NRA). Furthermore, among non you gov public polling, her average lead is only 12.4%, pretty pathetic for a republican in Oklahoma, and none of it has her above 50%. Meanwhile, internals from the Dorman campaign consistently show the race to be very close, while the one internal Fallin has released shows her with a significant lead, but below 45% - not exactly a sign of true confidence. While I'll need to see new public polling showing a single digit race before a huge downgrade is merited, I am ready to make a small one.

OK-GOV moves from Safe R to Strong Lean R

Meanwhile, in Maryland and New Hampshire, races that once looked like (fairly) easy democratic holds are tightening in the final weeks, and while republicans remain the underdogs in both, neither race should be ignored on election night. Maryland is an open seat that has always looked tough for republicans but has tightened considerably, while in NH, Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) remains popular but is being dragged down due to republicans coming home to their candidate and reverse coattails from Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), who is mired in a Toss-Up race.

NH-Gov moves from Safe D to Strong Lean D
MD-Gov moves from Strong Lean D to Lean D

[New Bierstaat]

Just making a quick note that North Carolina and New Hampshire have moved within the margin of error. I'm not changing the ratings because I'm done issuing Toss-Up ratings this cycle. I'm moving soon and cannot guarantee that I'll be able to come back and re-issue ratings in those races, so the only way the ratings are getting changed is if the Republicans, Scott Brown and Thom Tillis, take outright leads in their respective races, a possibility that cannot be counted out but which hasn't happened yet; in this case, I'd rank these as Leans R.

With the GOP poised to pick up 8 seats without these two, picking up just one of these two seats will result in the largest sweep of Senate seats for either party since the Republicans took 12 Democratic-held seats in 1980 on the coattails of President Ronald Reagan's landslide victory over Jimmy Carter.

In two polls released this morning, Tillis has his first lead in a month and Brown his first of the entire campaign, with each leading by 1. Have these two swing states finally broken for the Republicans in this red-leaning year?

I will make two rating changes to further separate the competitive from the uncompetitive. While it seems Democrats have thrown in the towel in Kentucky, I'm not ready to lock it in yet, but here's two rating changes for you:

Republicans seem to be looking at a pickup in Michigan as only being in the periphery of possibilities. They can thank poor candidate quality. Justin Amash would be leading the pack here if he would have run. But now, Rep. Gary Peters (D), a weak candidate himself, has pulled to a consistent lead of around 5. This lead is at least double the margin of error and steady, and it will take a significant development beyond simple convergence to the president's approval rating to win this race for former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R), so let's call this what it is. I'm sure Carl Levin is breathing a sigh of relief knowing his seat probably won't be taken by a Republican.

MI - (Levin): Likely D

Second, Tom Cotton in Arkansas has pulled to an equally significant lead, and while the numbers have merited this change for a while, I've held off due to the fact that Mark Pryor is not a bad candidate and was once leading this race. Now, he's clearly behind by two standard deviations and in deep, deep trouble, and again, this race will take a significant event to flip. I could see Democrats holding on to Tim Johnson's seat in South Dakota before this one.

AR - Pryor: Likely R

Also editing in here to note that either Shaheen in New Hamshire or Hagan in North Carolina called their GOP challenger a slave to the Koch brothers or something like that, and when Democrats start talking about the Koch brothers, that seems to signal desperation.

[Talanzaar]

Things have been trending Republican lately . . . its still a tossup for me but advantage GOP . . .

[Nigerian Kenya]

Republicans begging for mercy in GA

If there's one thing I've been bullish about throughout the cycle, it's the republicans holding onto Georgia. Outside of a couple months during the Republican Primary where it looked like Paul Broun had a serious chance of winning, I've never had the race below Leans R. Despite the polling, I always felt that Nunn (D) would fade down the stretch and that if democrats couldn't win GA in 2008 it made no sense that they'd win it in 2014. Also, there's the runoff problem - Nunn has to reach 50% on election day to win - if Libertarian Amanda Swafford forces Nunn and Perdue (R) into a January Runoff, it'll be a near certain win for Perdue, as democratic turnout drops off terribly in GA runoffs when compared to the general election - In 2008, Sen. Saxby Chambliss was held 8,000 votes below 50% in November, but then went on to win a runoff against Democrat Jim Martin by a whopping 14 points despite intense democratic spending.

Nunn's path to 50% in November seemed to be a mystery - even in polls showing her ahead, she was well below the mark - until now. Perdue has made a late gaffe by saying he spent most of his career outsourcing, and while this may not seem to matter so much, the fallout has actually been pretty bad, and three new polls show Nunn at 46, 47, and 48 percent - just hairs below the 50% mark.

At this point, each race is basically where it's going to be, and there's very little time for Perdue to correct his mistake. If Nunn can dominate the undecided vote, and get some of the libertarian vote over to her side, which is looking quite possible, she has her path to 50%. Now granted, I'm not placing especially high odds on that. But I am seeing a roughly 35% chance of her winning outright on election night, combined with a roughly 10% chance of her pulling off an absolute miracle in the runoff - which would probably require the runoff determining control of the senate, and that leaves 55% for Perdue-favorable outcomes. That's just enough to move GA from Leans R to Toss-Up/Tilt R.

With this change, the chance of a republican senate majority moves down from 60% to 55%.

[Alien Space Bats]

Despite the polling, I always felt that Nunn (D) would fade down the stretch and that if democrats couldn't win GA in 2008 it made no sense that they'd win it in 2014.

Doesn't that analysis neglect the general demographic changes all along the southeastern seaboard over the last several years?

I mean, nobody thought that North Carolina could become a battleground State until it did; yet the same demographic changes that turned Virginia blue and turned North Carolina purple have also been at work in Georgia and South Carolina as well...

[Nigerian Kenya]

Despite the polling, I always felt that Nunn (D) would fade down the stretch and that if democrats couldn't win GA in 2008 it made no sense that they'd win it in 2014.

Doesn't that analysis neglect the general demographic changes all along the southeastern seaboard over the last several years?

I mean, nobody thought that North Carolina could become a battleground State until it did; yet the same demographic changes that turned Virginia blue and turned North Carolina purple have also been at work in Georgia and South Carolina as well...

Yeah, but midterm year + sixth year itch effect + 2008 was a total dem wave and both Chambliss and McCain finished first in the november vote despite intense democratic campaigning + Perdue being one of the better options among those running in the primary, led me to believe that Nunn would fade, and stay that way. She did indeed fade for a time, but Perdue's ad linking her to terrorists the other week hurt, and this outsourcing gaffe only intensified the pain, making Nunn's path to 50% on election night much clearer - though again, none of this should be construed to mean that Perdue has lost - it's just that I am seeing a clear path to victory for both candidates more than I did even two weeks ago.

[New Bierstaat]

One rather obvious (and overdue) rating change:

A month ago, former Dollar General CEO David Perdue had broken the Georgia Senate race wide open. He was consistently leading by 5-6 points, and the normal distribution model had him leading by more than double the polls' collective margin of error. Now, due to the combination of a couple of gaffes and the outpouring of national Democratic money, his lead has narrowed considerably to the point where the Likely R rating that I had assigned the race back then no longer applies now.

This race will not be a toss-up; after all, I've given up assigning toss-up ratings for the rest of the cycle, but Perdue's advantage is no longer a commanding one. I doubt Georgia will flip, but I could see it flipping before Kansas.

GA - (Chambliss): Leans R

[Nigerian Kenya]

Tom Cotton Surging

Last August, I returned Arkansas Senate to the Lean R category. Since then, Cotton (R)'s lead over Sen. Pryor (D) has continued to remain consistent, and has grown - my average has climbed from Cotton +4.3 in August to Cotton +7.66 now. Furthermore, Cotton is getting closer and closer to 50% - with one poll (from a very reputable firm) - showing him all the way up at 49%, while Pryor remains stuck in the low 40's. With time running out for Pryor to make an amazing comeback in this very republican state , it's time to upgrade this race in Cotton's favor.

AR-SEN moves from Lean R to Strong Lean R

Meanwhile, McConnell continues to be unable to truly break away with the Kentucky Senate Race, and polls are getting closer - the last five non-outliers all show the race within four points, four show it within three, two showing it within two. The average is now down at McConnell +1.94. I'm still confident enough in McConnell's victory to keep this out of Toss-Up - McConnell is still polling much closer to 50% then Grimes is with undecideds heading downward fast, and Libertarian David Patterson seems to be taking slightly more votes away from Grimes than he is taking from McConnell, but the race is definitely hovering right outside the Toss-Up category, and I can see the democrats pulling this off before SD.

Chance of a Republican Senate Majority: 60%

Individual Chances of Victory:

AR - Cotton (R) - 90%
AK - Sullivan (R) - 65%
LA - Cassidy (R) - 65%
SD - Rounds (R) - 65% (Weiland (D) - 20%, Pressler (I) - 15%)
KY - McConnell (R) - 60%
GA - Perdue (R) - 55%
CO - Gardner (R) - 55%
IA - Ernst (R) - 53%
KS - Orman (I) - 51%
NC - Hagan (D, inc.) - 53%
NH - Shaheen (D, inc.) - 53%

[Nigerian Kenya]

Colorado Senate: Gardner closing well + Gubernatorial Update

It's time to move the CO senate race out of Toss-Up.

Colorado is a state where the GOP seems to have done everything right, while the democrats have done almost the exact opposite. When the year began it seemed as if the GOP was going to reluctantly nominate Ken Buck again, but then they finally got Gardner to run. Gardner was more electable than Buck the day he entered the race, and he's run a near-perfect campaign - from endorsing immigration reform and OTC birth control to effective use of his retail politics skills. Udall, on the other hand, in a terrible misread of the 2010 race, has spent no time attacking Gardner's record or defending his own - instead, he continues to run a one-issue campaign solely focused on him being to the left of Gardner on Abortion - and it clearly isn't working. While I've been cautious about moving this race because CO polls tend to be a bit too republican, with Gardner having a significiant and increasing lead in poll after poll, and with election day now just two weeks away, It's time to move it. As long as the GOP doesn't mess anything up in the final two weeks, they will finally win a CO statewide race for the first time since 2004 (or 2002 if you exclude presidential contests) .

CO-SEN moves from Toss-Up/Tilt R to Lean R

This moves the chance of a republican senate majority from 60% to 65%.


Meanwhile, I am moving a few gubernatorial races into less competitive territory. All of these were races that looked (far) more competitive at a point earlier in the cycle, but no longer deserve to be in their current category with so little time left.

NM-GOV moves from Strong Lean R to Safe R, SC-GOV moves from Lean R to Strong Lean R, AR-GOV moves from Lean R to Strong Lean R

[Svatantra Mulukama]

One rather obvious (and overdue) rating change:

A month ago, former Dollar General CEO David Perdue had broken the Georgia Senate race wide open. He was consistently leading by 5-6 points, and the normal distribution model had him leading by more than double the polls' collective margin of error. Now, due to the combination of a couple of gaffes and the outpouring of national Democratic money, his lead has narrowed considerably to the point where the Likely R rating that I had assigned the race back then no longer applies now.

This race will not be a toss-up; after all, I've given up assigning toss-up ratings for the rest of the cycle, but Perdue's advantage is no longer a commanding one. I doubt Georgia will flip, but I could see it flipping before Kansas.

GA - (Chambliss): Leans R

(Image)

Regarding Georgia, one must remember that if no candidate receives 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held. A runoff is likely, and even if Nunn wins the initial election, she probably won't win the runoff. This is the case because a libertarian is polling around 5%, and in the event of a runoff, most people planning on voting for him would vote for the GOP.

[New Bierstaat]

One rather obvious (and overdue) rating change:

A month ago, former Dollar General CEO David Perdue had broken the Georgia Senate race wide open. He was consistently leading by 5-6 points, and the normal distribution model had him leading by more than double the polls' collective margin of error. Now, due to the combination of a couple of gaffes and the outpouring of national Democratic money, his lead has narrowed considerably to the point where the Likely R rating that I had assigned the race back then no longer applies now.

This race will not be a toss-up; after all, I've given up assigning toss-up ratings for the rest of the cycle, but Perdue's advantage is no longer a commanding one. I doubt Georgia will flip, but I could see it flipping before Kansas.

GA - (Chambliss): Leans R

(Image)

Regarding Georgia, one must remember that if no candidate receives 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held. A runoff is likely, and even if Nunn wins the initial election, she probably won't win the runoff. This is the case because a libertarian is polling around 5%, and in the event of a runoff, most people planning on voting for him would vote for the GOP.

I'd actually put my bet on those Libertarian voters staying home. Most such voters never vote for major-party candidates.

However, Perdue would be favored in the runoff due to a likely drop in turnout unless the runoff determines the balance of power in the Senate.

[Nigerian Kenya]

Regarding Georgia, one must remember that if no candidate receives 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held. A runoff is likely, and even if Nunn wins the initial election, she probably won't win the runoff. This is the case because a libertarian is polling around 5%, and in the event of a runoff, most people planning on voting for him would vote for the GOP.

I'd actually put my bet on those Libertarian voters staying home. Most such voters never vote for major-party candidates.

However, Perdue would be favored in the runoff due to a likely drop in turnout unless the runoff determines the balance of power in the Senate.

While some of that 5% is voters who always vote libertarian, a significant portion of it is voters disenchanted with both candidates and at least considering a third option. If Perdue is to reach 50% on election day, he'll need to target that portion heavily - the more of them that pull the lever for Ms. Swafford, the more the chance of a runoff increases.

For those interested - (read next post)On Halloween, I'll be calling any senate races that are still in the toss-up category at that time. Sometime during the weekend after Halloween, I'll make a call on any gubernatorial races still in the toss-up category at that time. During this process, I'll be re-averaging every toss-up race to ensure maximum accuracy. However, I will indeed watch the polls during the final days, and I reserve the right to adjust any rating until the first polls close on election day (6 PM EST) - although, once everything is moved out of toss-up, that category will be blocked off immediately.

And yes, even GA is going to receive a call - although if it does go to a runoff, I reserve the right to readjust the rating between November 5th and the Runoff. LA's 'Lean R' rating is a prediction of the runoff result, but again, I reserve the right to adjust that between Nov. 5 and the runoff.


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EDIT: Going to move two gubernatorial races out of Toss-Up right now. Arizona and Hawaii. Both races were originally very close, but it seems both Mr. Ducey and Mr. Ige are solidifying support and entering more stable leads, and they go into the second to last weekend in at least slightly better positions than their opponents.

AZ-GOV moves from Toss-Up/Tilt R to Lean R
HI-GOV moves from Toss-Up/Tilt D to Lean D

[Nigerian Kenya]

A favorite emerges in Alaska-Gov. as Rounds appears more secure

Two rating changes to announce today.

First off, another governor's race is moving out of toss-up - the race in Alaska. Sean Parnell, the incumbent, once appeared Safe for reelection due to split opposition, until the democrat dropped out and joined the independent ticket, becoming the sole opposition to Parnell. Worries about the ticket being too "blue" for alaska never came true, and unlike Roberts in Kansas, where I'm still not ready to declare a favorite, Parnell has failed to wear away the independent's polling lead, which even seems to be increasing slightly and remains consistent in the mid to high single digits. While Independent Bill Walker can't breathe easy, he's definitely the favorite at this point in time.

AK-GOV moves from Toss-Up/Tilt I to Leans I

Also, in South Dakota, it seems that Independent Larry Pressler is finally fading somewhat - but it doesn't seem to be from democrats coming home to Rick Weiland - no, instead it seems to be the Republican part of Pressler's support coming back to Rounds. Two new polls show rounds up 13-14 points over Weiland (after previous polls showing rounds up mid-single digits), with Pressler at 21 percent in one poll (Rounds +13) and only 16 percent in the other (after previous polls showed him fighting for second with Weiland). Furthermore, Rounds' internals show him up 24 points - and while I don't take this at face value by any means, even taking 10 or 15 points off that rounds lead for bias reasons still allows it to support to the idea that SD voters are coming home to Rounds after entertaining a vote for Pressler.

Rounds can't sleep just yet, and I will continue to carefully watch this race, but all signs seem to point to his victory, albeit one with only about 40-45% of the vote.

SD-SEN moves from Lean R to Strong Lean R


Also, disregard the schedule I put up for moving races out of toss-up (which has now been strikethroughed). PPP is releasing polls in 16 states during the final weekend, and I'd like to see at least some of the results before moving things out of toss-up, to avoid a possibility of making a ton of rating changes on election day. Once they release what states they're doing and a release schedule, I'll release a new timeline for moving all races out of toss-up.

New Senate Odds:

Chance of a republican senate majority: 65%

Individual Chances of Victory:

AR - Cotton(R) - 85%
SD - Rounds(R) - 85% (Weiland(D) 10%, Pressler(I) 5%)
KY - McConnell(R) - 65%
LA - Cassidy(R) - 65%
AK - Sullivan(R) - 65%
CO - Gardner(R) - 60%
GA - Perdue(R) - 55%
IA - Ernst(R) - 55%
KS - Orman(I) - 53%
NC - Hagan(D, inc.) - 53%
NH - Shaheen(D, inc.) - 53%

[Nigerian Kenya]

A favorite emerges in Massachusetts

Today, I am moving the Governor's race in Massachusetts to Lean R. Democrats were taking a risk from the beginning by running Martha Coakley here, and her position has consistently worsened since the spring. In the final weeks of the election, while the polls disagree on the margin, all of them agree that Charlie Baker(R) is leading. Coakley is even trailing in her own internal. It's time to move this one:

MA-GOV moves from Toss-Up/Tilt R to Lean R

Also, while I'd be really, really surprised to see a republican upset in NM-SEN or NH-GOV, the recent polling data is such that, out of an abundance of caution, I am making these two changes:

NM-SEN moves from Safe D to Strong Lean D, NH-GOV moves from Strong Lean D to Lean D

Even though I am only assigning a 5% chance of a NM republican upset, the possibility (along with raising Rounds's chances to 90% after even more polling favorable to him) still raises the chance of a republican senate majority from 65% to 70%.

[West Aurelia]

Could someone clarify why some seats are vacant?

[New Bierstaat]

Could someone clarify why some seats are vacant?

There are currently no vacant seats in the Senate.

[Nigerian Kenya]

More races move out of toss-up

Today, I am moving the following races out of toss-up:

To Leans D:
ME-GOV

To Leans R:
IA-SEN
GA-SEN (Leans R/Leans Runoff)
GA-GOV (Leans R/Leans Runoff)

The chance of a republican senate majority holds steady at 70%.

[Saiwania]

Finally the Republicans can maybe get rid of Obamacare after this, but Obama's going to veto that and the Republicans won't have the super majority to override it.

[West Aurelia]

Could someone clarify why some seats are vacant?

There are currently no vacant seats in the Senate.

Oh, what about the ones in the House? Why are they vacant?