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Ray Kurzweil on the Future.

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Breadknife
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Postby Breadknife » Sat Dec 28, 2013 11:02 am

Frisivisia wrote:
Ifreann wrote:If you're predicting that something different will happen, does that mean it won't?

"Something different will happen." - Nostradamus

No. No. I believe he will have said something more like (except probably in a badly typeset mix of French and other more archaic terms)...
"As the clock moves onwards; Beyond the time of Amabo and Nitup; What was once will be no more; And what was not shall be"
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Indira
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Postby Indira » Sat Dec 28, 2013 11:06 am

Eliminating disease and aging? I severely doubt it.

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Trollgaard
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Postby Trollgaard » Sat Dec 28, 2013 11:26 am

Sounds unpleasant.

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Postby Ifreann » Sat Dec 28, 2013 11:36 am

Norstal wrote:
Ifreann wrote:If Ray Kurzweil thinks he will never die then clearly it can happen? When did he get elected Pope of science?

When the cardinals of Science elected him. Duh.

Well I didn't vote for him.


Imperial Nilfgaard wrote:
Ifreann wrote:If Ray Kurzweil thinks he will never die then clearly it can happen? When did he get elected Pope of science?


The Pope has no real authority. Kurzweil is an acclaimed futurist and thus I would trust what he says more then Francis or Benedict, or any other pope.

5 points for not understanding the obvious reference to papal infallibility.


Norstal wrote:
Imperial Nilfgaard wrote:
The Pope has no real authority. Kurzweil is an acclaimed futurist and thus I would trust what he says more then Francis or Benedict, or any other pope.

Well that's not the point. The point is that it's too optimistic of a prediction. And we all know what optimism did to the 1930's economy...

My point was that "This guy thinks he's right, ergo he is" isn't terribly convincing.


Trollgaard wrote:Sounds unpleasant.

Only because you plan to fight a futile "war" against such life saving developments. Assuming you're alive at the time at all.
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Postby Imperial Nilfgaard » Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:02 pm

Indira wrote:Eliminating disease and aging? I severely doubt it.


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Postby Regnum Dominae » Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:03 pm

Gauthier wrote:Aging and disease will continue as gene therapy will be the exclusive luxury of the filthy rich.

Like how cell phones and the Internet are the exclusive luxury of the filthy rich now?
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Postby Ifreann » Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:17 pm

Regnum Dominae wrote:
Gauthier wrote:Aging and disease will continue as gene therapy will be the exclusive luxury of the filthy rich.

Like how cell phones and the Internet are the exclusive luxury of the filthy rich now?

Rich people have a special richernet. The porn is way better.
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Postby Imperial Nilfgaard » Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:20 pm

Ifreann wrote:
Regnum Dominae wrote:Like how cell phones and the Internet are the exclusive luxury of the filthy rich now?

Rich people have a special richernet. The porn is way better.


Ben-Gurion once banned TV in Israel to make people more productive, I wonder if the same would be true were we to ban porn.
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Terra Sector Union
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Postby Terra Sector Union » Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:31 pm

Love these theorists that say, "In the future, we will be able to live longer because of our advancement in medicine." and then,
" Overpopulation will become a major problem in the coming decades!"
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Postby Breadknife » Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:32 pm

Imperial Nilfgaard wrote:Ben-Gurion once banned TV in Israel to make people more productive, I wonder if the same would be true were we to ban porn.
I suspect they'd make up for it by just being more reproductive...
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Postby Northwest Slobovia » Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:37 pm

Imperial Nilfgaard wrote:
Indira wrote:Eliminating disease and aging? I severely doubt it.


They once said flight was an impossibility. Look at us now.


/leaps off of his chair
/lands in an embarrassing heap

Yup, still can't fly. :)

But slightly seriously, I wonder who, if anybody, actually said that. The theory of flight with airfoils has been known for centuries, and people have been playing with manned aircraft (ie, gliders) since the end of the 19th century. Manned balloons have been kicking around for longer.

In any case, Kurzeil's predictions are sufficiently weasily -- "By 2030 solar energy will have the capacity to meet all of our energy needs." Yes, we have that "capacity" now, it's just too expensive in most markets... and he's not saying that by 2030 we will meet all our energy needs with solar. -- and/or misinformed -- he's badly confused about the history of computer-aided drug design -- that I regard them as pointless. Gee-whiz predictions are a dime a dozen; why should I care about his?
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Postby Northwest Slobovia » Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:41 pm

Gauthier wrote:Aging and disease will continue as gene therapy will be the exclusive luxury of the filthy rich.

Eh. I'd say "Aging and disease will continue as RNAi is not the magic pixie dust Kurzweil thinks it is, and our understanding of how our genome works makes neolithics' understanding of physics look advanced and sophisticated." Given enough time, we'll get better at it, but if open-ended predictions are a little hard to verify.
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Postby Cannot think of a name » Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:43 pm

"Where's my immortality?" will be the new "Where's my jetpack?
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Postby Wisconsin9 » Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:44 pm

Well, I think that's far too optimistic for the 21st century, but I think we'll get there eventually.
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Postby Northwest Slobovia » Sat Dec 28, 2013 1:22 pm

Wisconsin9 wrote:Well, I think that's far too optimistic for the 21st century, but I think we'll get there eventually.

Well, the 21st century gives us 86 more years... that's a long time in bio-medical research. Immortality? Nah, probably not by then, but perhaps life-spans so extended -- double the current 80-odd years for the average person, say -- that we may not care so much. (Or we may care more; entitlement is like that.)
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Postby Wisconsin9 » Sat Dec 28, 2013 1:25 pm

Northwest Slobovia wrote:
Wisconsin9 wrote:Well, I think that's far too optimistic for the 21st century, but I think we'll get there eventually.

Well, the 21st century gives us 86 more years... that's a long time in bio-medical research. Immortality? Nah, probably not by then, but perhaps life-spans so extended -- double the current 80-odd years for the average person, say -- that we may not care so much. (Or we may care more; entitlement is like that.)

In the fifties there were people who believed that by the turn of the century, commercial space travel would be easy, we'd be sending manned missions out past the asteroid belt, and the Soviet Union and United States would each own half of the moon.
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Postby Geilinor » Sat Dec 28, 2013 1:25 pm

Imperial Nilfgaard wrote:
Norstal wrote:Well that's not the point. The point is that it's too optimistic of a prediction. And we all know what optimism did to the 1930's economy...


The future is always optimistic and it should be. If you think about things have always consistently gotten better as time goes on. Quality of life and collective health continues to improve.

It isn't always so smooth. The 19th century in Europe was full of optimism, but then the world wars and the Cold War happened. It worked out in the end, but the future won't be a paradise.
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Postby Northwest Slobovia » Sat Dec 28, 2013 1:52 pm

Wisconsin9 wrote:
Northwest Slobovia wrote:Well, the 21st century gives us 86 more years... that's a long time in bio-medical research. Immortality? Nah, probably not by then, but perhaps life-spans so extended -- double the current 80-odd years for the average person, say -- that we may not care so much. (Or we may care more; entitlement is like that.)

In the fifties there were people who believed that by the turn of the century, commercial space travel would be easy, we'd be sending manned missions out past the asteroid belt, and the Soviet Union and United States would each own half of the moon.

Your point being?

Those predictions made sense then. Two assumptions went into the idea of commercial space travel back in the 50s, especially beyond earth orbit:

1) The electronics of the time was unreliable, so things like commsats would need lots of maintenance, and possibly permanent crews.
2) Nuclear power would provide fast travel in space.

The former became obsolete with the development of solid-state electronics and then integrated circuits. The latter died for both technical reasons -- no partially solved -- and political opposition. Perhaps my assumption that people will continue to want longer, healthier lives is equally faulty.
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Postby Ermarian » Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:28 pm

Imperial Nilfgaard wrote:
Ifreann wrote:If Ray Kurzweil thinks he will never die then clearly it can happen? When did he get elected Pope of science?


The Pope has no real authority. Kurzweil is an acclaimed futurist and thus I would trust what he says more then Francis or Benedict, or any other pope.


Acclaimed is not the same as accurate. Futurology is even less scientific as economics - and Kurzweil is particularly optimistic when it comes to medical immortality, because he very much wants it to happen.

That's not to say he isn't spot-on with many other predictions, but in between the generally non-controversial stuff about technology, voice recognition, better computers, etc. (which all exist already, and are continuously being refined), he throws two huge ones: Self-aware machines and elimination of aging. Nothing has even come close on either of those two. And keep in mind he doesn't say it'll happen next century; he says within the next few decades.
Last edited by Ermarian on Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Estado Paulista » Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:33 pm

Imperial Nilfgaard wrote:3D printing will revolutionize production and medicine by the 2020s.


I always thought this was kinda obvious.
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Postby Breadknife » Sat Dec 28, 2013 3:59 pm

Cannot think of a name wrote:"Where's my immortality?" will be the new "Where's my jetpack?
I say give everyone the jetpacks, first. Then there'll be less people asking when their immortality will be arriving...
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Postby Libertarian California » Sat Dec 28, 2013 4:21 pm

Dammit. I'll be spending eternity as a 60 year old.

Time to eat only salad and granola for the next six decades.
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Postby The Ben Boys » Sat Dec 28, 2013 4:25 pm

Actually, I'm disappointed. I find part of the magic of life is that it's going to end, and though I wish for a long life, I don't think I'd want to live for ages.


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Postby Dooom35796821595 » Sat Dec 28, 2013 4:26 pm

Libertarian California wrote:Dammit. I'll be spending eternity as a 60 year old.

Time to eat only salad and granola for the next six decades.


Don't worry, it'll give you plenty of time to wait for/work on real anti-ageing technology. :lol:
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Postby Northwest Slobovia » Sat Dec 28, 2013 4:29 pm

The Ben Boys wrote:Actually, I'm disappointed. I find part of the magic of life is that it's going to end, and though I wish for a long life, I don't think I'd want to live for ages.

Why?

I plan to live forever, of course, but barring that I'd settle for a couple thousand years. Even five hundred would be pretty nice. ;)
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