Ray Kurzweil on the Future.

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

I found this interesting article where Kurzweil discusses his predictions and I wanted to share it.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/10/business/ray-kurzweil-future-of-human-life/index.html?iref=allsearch

Some highlights of the article:

Aging and disease will be eradicated in the coming decades as we perfect gene therapy
3D printing will revolutionize production and medicine by the 2020s.
Virtual Reality will become totally immersive and will make it much easy to communicate and to have the most epic leisure time ever.

Given this assertions, based on Kurzweil's interpretation of current trends using his acclaimed theory of 'accelerating returns', I think the 21st century will see an incredible advance for humankind. Everyone reading this has the potential to achieve practical immortality; all we must do is survive the coming decades.
Anyway the reason I put this up is to provide an interesting foundation to discuss futurism and the ideas of Kurzweil.

[Ermarian]

I'm all for transhumanism myself, but I think Kurzweil's predictions on medicine are too optimistic by half. We probably will be able to extend human lifespan indefinitely at some point, but I wouldn't put even odds on any of us being around to see it.

If I had to guess my lifespan due to medical advances (assuming they'll be affordable), I'd put it between 100-110. Which is fairly optimistic, considering about 4.4% worldwide live to that age now, and only 0.1% of those who do exceed it. Biological lifespan can't advance exponentially like computational power does (and not even that will keep up the exponential increase). We'll keep running into hard limits (on cell age, on DNA replication, on this disease, brain degradation, etc.), each problem will present its own challenges, and these problems will multiply the older we get - so the returns may decelerate in that regard.

(Kurzweil himself may have an unconscious bias there, because he's nearing seventy himself.)

However, the quality of life will certainly increase up to old age. And the 3D printing and VR thing are well underway already.

[Gauthier]

Aging and disease will continue as gene therapy will be the exclusive luxury of the filthy rich.

[Dooom35796821595]

Way to optimistic and doesn't consider moral objection as well as "purists" who will speak against such changes along with how slow politics is to adapt, usually slowing progress with regulation and restrictions.

[Nueo Soled]

The world has way too much problems in order for this to come true. The world will most likely collapse as natural resources end.

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

Way to optimistic and doesn't consider moral objection as well as "purists" who will speak against such changes along with how slow politics is to adapt, usually slowing progress with regulation and restrictions.

I do hope that there will be a mechanize put in place to marginalize such luddites from greater society, thus safeguarding progress.

[Dooom35796821595]

Way to optimistic and doesn't consider moral objection as well as "purists" who will speak against such changes along with how slow politics is to adapt, usually slowing progress with regulation and restrictions.

I do hope that there will be a mechanize put in place to marginalize such luddites from greater society, thus safeguarding progress.

There is. It's the NSA!

I don't have a problem if they follow the Amish example and live in there isolated backwards community's not shoving there opinions on the rest of us. And for the ones who don't, CIA drone strike FTW.

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

I do hope that there will be a mechanize put in place to marginalize such luddites from greater society, thus safeguarding progress.

There is. It's the NSA!

I don't have a problem if they follow the Amish example and live in there isolated backwards community's not shoving there opinions on the rest of us. And for the ones who don't, CIA drone strike FTW.

Yes that works. Establish designated primitivist enclaves, and for those that insist on getting in the way of progress there are drones.

Side note: This is what I advocate for religious fundamentalism, anarchism and nationalism as well.

[Breadknife]

3D printing will revolutionize production and medicine by the 2020s.

Medicine?!? Surgical appliances and implants, maybe, but for the pure pharma (which is what most people will still need), tailored drug doses is physically possible right now with automatic "cocktail mixers" of various kinds (and tailored retroviral DNA modifiers, soo) and is just awaiting sufficient advances in knowledge knowing what to mix together to target a particular person and their particular condition. Which has only really been looked at seriously since the late '80s (IIRC).

(But there's a chance that the article, which I shall read later, covers this. Or makes my point invalid by some other means.)

[Ermarian]

3D printing will revolutionize production and medicine by the 2020s.

Medicine?!? Surgical appliances and implants, maybe, but for the pure pharma (which is what most people will still need), tailored drug doses is physically possible right now with automatic "cocktail mixers" of various kinds (and tailored retroviral DNA modifiers, soo) and is just awaiting sufficient advances in knowledge knowing what to mix together to target a particular person and their particular condition. Which has only really been looked at seriously since the late '80s (IIRC).

(But there's a chance that the article, which I shall read later, covers this. Or makes my point invalid by some other means.)

Implants are medicine. It's a blanket term that covers medical biotechnology, genetics, pharmaceutical medicine and everything else. 3D printing will likely be applicable to tissue engineering, making it a vital technology in growing artificial organs.

[Ifreann]

Aging and disease will continue as gene therapy will be the exclusive luxury of the filthy rich.

Just like air travel and computers.

[Nervium]

This is going to my book of "Things that will not happen this century but people still believed in it, just like that 2012 stuff."

[Frisivisia]

And now watch as something completely different happens, as happens with the vast majority of future predictions!

[Ifreann]

And now watch as something completely different happens, as happens with the vast majority of future predictions!

If you're predicting that something different will happen, does that mean it won't?

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

And now watch as something completely different happens, as happens with the vast majority of future predictions!

If you're predicting that something different will happen, does that mean it won't?

Damn this is deep.

[AiliailiA]

Everyone reading this has the potential to achieve practical immortality; all we must do is survive the coming decades.

Easy for you to say, young pup. I don't expect to live forever and what's more: I don't want to.

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

Everyone reading this has the potential to achieve practical immortality; all we must do is survive the coming decades.

Easy for you to say, young pup. I don't expect to live forever and what's more: I don't want to.

Why not?

[Frisivisia]

And now watch as something completely different happens, as happens with the vast majority of future predictions!

If you're predicting that something different will happen, does that mean it won't?

"Something different will happen." - Nostradamus

[AiliailiA]

Easy for you to say, young pup. I don't expect to live forever and what's more: I don't want to.

Why not?

Well that's kind of personal. Let's just say that aging isn't just a matter of declining health and abilities.

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

Why not?

Well that's kind of personal. Let's just say that aging isn't just a matter of declining health and abilities.

Fair enough. Nobody will make it mandatory that you stay alive. But just to add, Ray is 65 and he thinks he will never die. So if he thinks this way then clearly science must be at a point where the vast majority of people on Earth COULD live for eons, assuming we facilitate this.

[Ifreann]

Well that's kind of personal. Let's just say that aging isn't just a matter of declining health and abilities.

Fair enough. Nobody will make it mandatory that you stay alive. But just to add, Ray is 65 and he thinks he will never die. So if he thinks this way then clearly science must be at a point where the vast majority of people on Earth COULD live for eons, assuming we facilitate this.

If Ray Kurzweil thinks he will never die then clearly it can happen? When did he get elected Pope of science?

[Norstal]

Fair enough. Nobody will make it mandatory that you stay alive. But just to add, Ray is 65 and he thinks he will never die. So if he thinks this way then clearly science must be at a point where the vast majority of people on Earth COULD live for eons, assuming we facilitate this.

If Ray Kurzweil thinks he will never die then clearly it can happen? When did he get elected Pope of science?

When the cardinals of Science elected him. Duh.

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

Fair enough. Nobody will make it mandatory that you stay alive. But just to add, Ray is 65 and he thinks he will never die. So if he thinks this way then clearly science must be at a point where the vast majority of people on Earth COULD live for eons, assuming we facilitate this.

If Ray Kurzweil thinks he will never die then clearly it can happen? When did he get elected Pope of science?

The Pope has no real authority. Kurzweil is an acclaimed futurist and thus I would trust what he says more then Francis or Benedict, or any other pope.

[Norstal]

If Ray Kurzweil thinks he will never die then clearly it can happen? When did he get elected Pope of science?

The Pope has no real authority. Kurzweil is an acclaimed futurist and thus I would trust what he says more then Francis or Benedict, or any other pope.

Well that's not the point. The point is that it's too optimistic of a prediction. And we all know what optimism did to the 1930's economy...

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

The Pope has no real authority. Kurzweil is an acclaimed futurist and thus I would trust what he says more then Francis or Benedict, or any other pope.

Well that's not the point. The point is that it's too optimistic of a prediction. And we all know what optimism did to the 1930's economy...

The future is always optimistic and it should be. If you think about things have always consistently gotten better as time goes on. Quality of life and collective health continues to improve.
Just look at how the average man lived in 1500s. He probably died of syphilis after banging a whore at the age of 15. He was one of 10 kids of whom 3 survived to see their tenth birthday. He ate meat maybe once a month. You get the idea..