Ukrainian Crisis

[Palmyrene Empire]

Did anyone see my post on the last page? I have been having some wierd pop in issues on a lot of the internet recently and it seems its also affecting some forums and youtube as well.

[Asilian]

Listen to that statement and then replace Pripyat with Kiev and thus you prove my point,

Ukraine wasn't wiped off the face of the earth in the war with Russia. And some people do visit Kiev. It's a thing you can pay money to do. A lot of it isn't even that radioactive anymore!

I dunno, it might still have a lot of background radiation.

oy vey, point is, weve all backed ourselves into a corner we cant get out of without making ourselves, and everyone connected with us look like a giant hypocritical self interested ass, so-as we are do for another big, useless, drawn out war-may the god's prove me wrong in saying its gonna be this one...

[Estruia]

Yes, because Putin will destroy a parcel of land that he already has a firm hold on, just because part of the population dislikes him and Russia. That makes perfect sense.

America destroyed the South when we had a firm hold on it during the Civil War, and WE'RE the SANE ones...what's to stop Vladimir from doing the same thing, minus the principals, to prove a point?

You couldn't be more wrong, Asilian. We had the South contained, but we did not have a firm hold on it. The core territory of the South was still very much free prior to Sherman's march to the Sea. However, this is beside the point. Stop with the thread derailment.

[Arglorand]

Referendum paper, more likely than not.

The box for the compulsory statement of name and adress is missing

Ethnicity, too. Can't have any pesky Tatars claiming this is, god forbid, their homeland.

[Asilian]

America destroyed the South when we had a firm hold on it during the Civil War, and WE'RE the SANE ones...what's to stop Vladimir from doing the same thing, minus the principals, to prove a point?

You couldn't be more wrong, Asilian. We had the South contained, but we did not have a firm hold on it. The core territory of the South was still very much free prior to Sherman's march to the Sea. However, this is beside the point. Stop with the thread derailment.

Very true, but like Putin and Crimea, Sherman marched to the sea pillaging and raping and destroying every yokel and city he ran into, which he didnt have to do, after they destroyed Richmond, just like Putin doesn't have to occupy and destroy Crimea, and likely Ukraine, as the Crimeans will go with them without a fight and Ukraine will be next, and the international community can do not a thing about it as they already recognize the worse they can do is sanctions, and wouldnt recognize the refferendum vote no matter the results-this is Putin's bombing of Richmond, but will he continue like Sherman did, and destroy it all anyway to make it a point? probably...

[Baltenstein]

You couldn't be more wrong, Asilian. We had the South contained, but we did not have a firm hold on it. The core territory of the South was still very much free prior to Sherman's march to the Sea. However, this is beside the point. Stop with the thread derailment.

Very true, but like Putin and Crimea, Sherman marched to the sea pillaging and raping and destroying every yokel and city he ran into, which he didnt have to do, after they destroyed Richmond, just like Putin doesn't have to occupy and destroy Crimea, and likely Ukraine, as the Crimeans will go with them without a fight and Ukraine will be next, and the international community can do not a thing about it as they already recognize the worse they can do is sanctions, and wouldnt recognize the refferendum vote no matter the results-this is Putin's bombing of Richmond, but will he continue like Sherman did, and destroy it all anyway to make it a point? probably...

...not.

So far, there's no indication that Russia will move beyond Crimea. Putin will know not to overplay his position.

[Estruia]

You couldn't be more wrong, Asilian. We had the South contained, but we did not have a firm hold on it. The core territory of the South was still very much free prior to Sherman's march to the Sea. However, this is beside the point. Stop with the thread derailment.

Very true, but like Putin and Crimea, Sherman marched to the sea pillaging and raping and destroying every yokel and city he ran into, which he didnt have to do, after they destroyed Richmond, just like Putin doesn't have to occupy and destroy Crimea, and likely Ukraine, as the Crimeans will go with them without a fight and Ukraine will be next, and the international community can do not a thing about it as they already recognize the worse they can do is sanctions, and wouldnt recognize the refferendum vote no matter the results-this is Putin's bombing of Richmond, but will he continue like Sherman did, and destroy it all anyway to make it a point? probably...

I hate to tell you this, but your analogy has no legs to stand on. I fear, it will never walk again. There is no connection between what is happening in Crimea, and what happened during the American Civil War.

Sherman's march to the Sea was instrumental in the eventual downfall of the Confederacy, which took place after the fall of Richmond, which occurred AFTER Sherman's invasion of the Confederate Heartland.

[Asilian]

Very true, but like Putin and Crimea, Sherman marched to the sea pillaging and raping and destroying every yokel and city he ran into, which he didnt have to do, after they destroyed Richmond, just like Putin doesn't have to occupy and destroy Crimea, and likely Ukraine, as the Crimeans will go with them without a fight and Ukraine will be next, and the international community can do not a thing about it as they already recognize the worse they can do is sanctions, and wouldnt recognize the refferendum vote no matter the results-this is Putin's bombing of Richmond, but will he continue like Sherman did, and destroy it all anyway to make it a point? probably...

...not.

So far, there's no indication that Russia will move beyond Crimea.

Well you dont keep up with the headlines, they just siezed a gas plant on Ukranian soil, according to CNN NYtimes, Washington Post and everyone else, the Ukranian government also says they see this as an act of war, and an invasion...

[Asilian]

Very true, but like Putin and Crimea, Sherman marched to the sea pillaging and raping and destroying every yokel and city he ran into, which he didnt have to do, after they destroyed Richmond, just like Putin doesn't have to occupy and destroy Crimea, and likely Ukraine, as the Crimeans will go with them without a fight and Ukraine will be next, and the international community can do not a thing about it as they already recognize the worse they can do is sanctions, and wouldnt recognize the refferendum vote no matter the results-this is Putin's bombing of Richmond, but will he continue like Sherman did, and destroy it all anyway to make it a point? probably...

I hate to tell you this, but your analogy has no legs to stand on. I fear, it will never walk again. There is no connection between what is happening in Crimea, and what happened during the American Civil War.

Sherman's march to the Sea was instrumental in the eventual downfall of the Confederacy, which took place after the fall of Richmond, which occurred AFTER Sherman's invasion of the Confederate Heartland.

okay true, but you must admit that if things were the way i said they were it woudlve been a decent analogy, and my core thoughts still stand, putin is not a rational man, he'll still burn it all to make a point...

[Arglorand]

...not.

So far, there's no indication that Russia will move beyond Crimea.

Well you dont keep up with the headlines, they just siezed a gas plant on Ukranian soil, according to CNN NYtimes, Washington Post and everyone else, the Ukranian government also says they see this as an act of war, and an invasion...

They GTFO'ed out of the plant after Ukrainian forces moved towards it.

It's you who doesn't keep up with the headlines.

[Estruia]

I hate to tell you this, but your analogy has no legs to stand on. I fear, it will never walk again. There is no connection between what is happening in Crimea, and what happened during the American Civil War.

Sherman's march to the Sea was instrumental in the eventual downfall of the Confederacy, which took place after the fall of Richmond, which occurred AFTER Sherman's invasion of the Confederate Heartland.

okay true, but you must admit that if things were the way i said they were it woudlve been a decent analogy, and my core thoughts still stand, putin is not a rational man, he'll still burn it all to make a point...

Putin is a cold, calculating, Political man. He knows when to play his hand, and doing anything near what you have mentioned, would spell the end of his reign. He knows it, the West knows it, and Russia knows it. He is on thin ice as it is with most of the world; he would not push himself, nor his people over the edge into the Abyss.

He may be irrational, but he is far from stupid.

[Arglorand]

Also, this is just hilarious. You can actually write a formal request to be allowed to vote in the Crimean referendum no matter where you are.

Suuuuure a democratic, honest process reflecting the will of the people and not just one imperialist, quasifascist maniac.

[Regnum Dominae]

Also, this is just hilarious. You can actually write a formal request to be allowed to vote in the Crimean referendum no matter where you are.

Suuuuure a democratic, honest process reflecting the will of the people and not just one imperialist, quasifascist maniac.

Russia isn't even trying at this point.

[Myrensis]

Also, this is just hilarious. You can actually write a formal request to be allowed to vote in the Crimean referendum no matter where you are.

Suuuuure a democratic, honest process reflecting the will of the people and not just one imperialist, quasifascist maniac.

I'm sure they'll discard enough 'No' votes to avoid the embarassment of having more 'yes' votes than there are people in Crimean.

[Asilian]

okay true, but you must admit that if things were the way i said they were it woudlve been a decent analogy, and my core thoughts still stand, putin is not a rational man, he'll still burn it all to make a point...

Putin is a cold, calculating, Political man. He knows when to play his hand, and doing anything near what you have mentioned, would spell the end of his reign. He knows it, the West knows it, and Russia knows it. He is on thin ice as it is with most of the world; he would not push himself, nor his people over the edge into the Abyss.

He may be irrational, but he is far from stupid.

you were saying?....


Russia Seizes Gas Plant Near Crimea Border, Ukraine Says
By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN, PETER BAKER and ANDREW E. KRAMERMARCH 15, 2014
Photo

Armed forces patrolled a checkpoint on a road between Sevastopol and Simferopol in Crimea on Saturday. Credit Uriel Sinai for The New York Times

American and European officials worked through the day readying lists of Russians to penalize after the referendum, including possibly vital members of President Vladimir V. Putin’s inner circle. Among the Russians who have been on at least some lists circulated for consideration for Western sanctions, according to officials, are Sergei K. Shoigu, the defense minister; Aleksandr V. Bortnikov, director of the Federal Security Service; Nikolai P. Patrushev, the secretary of the security council; Sergei B. Ivanov and Vladislav Surkov, two of Mr. Putin’s closest and most powerful advisers; Dmitri O. Rogozin, a deputy prime minister; Aleksei Miller, the chief executive of Gazprom, the state energy giant; and Igor Sechin, head of the oil company Rosneft.

President Obama and his European counterparts may start with only some of the Putin confidants in whatever sanctions are imposed immediately after the referendum, so as to have the means to further escalate their response should Russia continue to press its seizure of Ukrainian territory. Instead, they may focus at first on lower-level officials, military leaders, business tycoons or parliamentarians.

The sanctions would ban the targets from traveling to Europe or the United States and freeze any assets they had in either place. Western officials said they do not plan to sanction Mr. Putin himself, at least at this point, because he is a head of state, nor do they intend to target Sergey V. Lavrov, the foreign minister, because he needs to travel if there are any future diplomatic talks.

Mr. Obama’s cabinet secretaries and top advisers huddled in the White House on Saturday to discuss their strategy, joined by Secretary of State John Kerry, who returned from a fruitless last-ditch diplomatic trip to talk with Mr. Lavrov in London.

Continue reading the main story
The degree of sanctions and the exact timing may depend on how Moscow reacts immediately after the referendum, which is almost universally expected to approve seceding from Ukraine and becoming part of Russia, officials said. If Mr. Putin moves promptly to initiate annexation, that would trigger immediate action, but if he holds back and leaves room for talks, Washington and Brussels may defer the tougher actions.

Photo

Samantha Power, the American ambassador to the United Nations, and her Russian counterpart, Vitaly I. Churkin, before voting on a Security Council resolution. Credit Emmanuel Dunand/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Russia left little impression of backing down on Saturday. Russian forces made a show of added strength here in Simferopol, the regional capital, stationing armed personnel carriers in at least two locations in the city center and parking two large troop carriers outside the headquarters of the election commission. Before Saturday, the heavy equipment had largely been kept out of the city.

The more provocative move, however, was the seizure of the gas terminal in the Kherson region near a town called Strelkovoye, which drew new threats of a military response from the Ukrainian government. Until now, it has refrained from responding in force to Russian actions, but it sent troops Saturday to surround the gas terminal, according to a Ukrainian news service quoting local police, though there were no immediate indications of any shots being fired.

In Kiev, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement that Ukraine “reserves the right to use all necessary measures” to stop what it called “the military invasion by Russia.”

The White House suggested the move by Russia only increased the likelihood of sanctions. “We remain concerned about any attempt by Russia to increase tensions or threaten the Ukrainian people, and as we have long said, if Russia continues to take escalatory steps, there will be consequences,” said Caitlin Hayden, a White House spokeswoman.

The pro-Russian government in Crimea issued a statement saying its “self-defense” forces had seized the gas terminal because Ukraine had turned off the supply of fuel, leaving homes, hospitals and schools without heat or electricity. The government also said that it found the terminal rigged with explosives “with the goal of totally destroying it,” which would cut off gas to eastern cities in Crimea.

Photo

Ukrainian servicemen guarded a checkpoint near the village Salkovo, in Kherson region, on Saturday. Credit Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
Those claims, carried by the Interfax news service, were impossible to verify independently. Power in some parts of Crimea appeared to be disrupted in recent days, although it was possible that was because of power lines downed by high winds.

Although the Crimean government sought to take responsibility for the operation, there was little doubt that it was conducted by Russian forces, given the involvement of helicopters and other sophisticated equipment.

The move appeared to fit the pattern of deployment on Crimea. The Ukrainian Unian news agency cited local residents saying soldiers without identifying insignia had landed near the gas terminal in helicopters with Russia’s red-star tail art.

Officials in Ukraine have worried Russia would begin to take steps to ensure it could continue to provide services to Crimea, including trying to secure gas supplies that come from outside the peninsula. Such steps would be expected to diminish Ukraine’s leverage over Crimea.

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The showdown at the United Nations was dramatic in its own way. The Russian ambassador, Vitaly I. Churkin, preceded his veto by saying that Moscow would respect the results of Sunday’s referendum, but he did not say what it would do afterward. He described the referendum as an “extraordinary measure,” expressing the Crimean people’s right to self-determination, made necessary by what he called an “illegal coup carried out by radicals” in Ukraine, referring to the street protests that led to the ouster of President Viktor F. Yanukovych, a Russian ally.

Photo

Armed men left the Moscow Hotel in Simferopol after taking over some floors. Credit Uriel Sinai for The New York Times
Western officials crafted the language to persuade China not to side with Moscow. China is sensitive about talk of secession since it has its own worries about restive regions, including Tibet.

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“China has always respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states,” said Liu Jieyi, the Chinese ambassador, explaining his abstention before adding a jab at the West: “At the same time, we have noticed foreign interference is also an important reason leading to violent clashes on the streets of Ukraine.”

The officials meeting in Washington and Europe working on sanctions saw three scenarios for Monday and beyond: Mr. Putin does not act; he moves to begin the legal processes of annexation; or, in the worst case, he moves to seize parts of eastern Ukraine.

Also on Saturday, amid the tensions between the West and Russia, NATO announced that several of its websites had been hit by cyberattacks. A spokeswoman said on Twitter that the sites had been hit by a denial of service attack, but that there had been no operational effect. A former Obama administration official said responsibility for the attack was claimed by a group called cyber-Berkut. Ukraine’s riot police are known as the Berkut.

Ukrainian officials have been worried about an escalation of Russian military actions, reporting shifting tanks and troops in the north of Crimea, near the Ukrainian mainland. A spokesman in Crimea, Vladislav Seleznyov, said troops and trucks towing artillery pieces moved from Kerch, a city near the strait of the same name separating Crimea from Russia, to the north.

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In one episode on Saturday night, masked gunmen stormed into the Hotel Moskva in Simferopol where foreign journalists are staying. The heavily armed men, many in plainclothes, searched some rooms. Some journalists said their flash drives had been taken.

Crimean officials insisted it was a training exercise.

Mr. Putin on Saturday was in the southern Russian resort city of Sochi, where he watched the open relay in cross-country ski racing in the Paralympics. Russia won the gold; Ukraine won the silver. The Kremlin issued a statement saying Mr. Putin had congratulated both teams.

[Arglorand]

Also, this is just hilarious. You can actually write a formal request to be allowed to vote in the Crimean referendum no matter where you are.

Suuuuure a democratic, honest process reflecting the will of the people and not just one imperialist, quasifascist maniac.

Russia isn't even trying at this point.

Why try when /everyone/ knows you're a fake except your own people, who can be easily deluded by a subservient media that lies to extents yet unseen in the world since fucking Goebbels.

(Looking at you, Dmitry Kiselev. If there was ever a newscaster undeserving of the title 'newscaster' even more than everyone on Fox News, it's you.)

[Shofercia]

Also, this is just hilarious. You can actually write a formal request to be allowed to vote in the Crimean referendum no matter where you are.

Suuuuure a democratic, honest process reflecting the will of the people and not just one imperialist, quasifascist maniac.

That's incorrect. The last line clearly states that it requires a passport with proof of Crimean Residency. Re-read it.

[Estruia]

Putin is a cold, calculating, Political man. He knows when to play his hand, and doing anything near what you have mentioned, would spell the end of his reign. He knows it, the West knows it, and Russia knows it. He is on thin ice as it is with most of the world; he would not push himself, nor his people over the edge into the Abyss.

He may be irrational, but he is far from stupid.

you were saying?....


-snip-

There is a difference between what happened, and a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

[Arglorand]

Also, this is just hilarious. You can actually write a formal request to be allowed to vote in the Crimean referendum no matter where you are.

Suuuuure a democratic, honest process reflecting the will of the people and not just one imperialist, quasifascist maniac.

That's incorrect. The last line clearly states that it requires a passport with proof of Crimean Residency. Re-read it.

Shit, you're actually right.

Ought've read it a bit more carefully.

[Myrensis]

Also, this is just hilarious. You can actually write a formal request to be allowed to vote in the Crimean referendum no matter where you are.

Suuuuure a democratic, honest process reflecting the will of the people and not just one imperialist, quasifascist maniac.

That's incorrect. The last line clearly states that it requires a passport with proof of Crimean Residency. Re-read it.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/16/world/eur ... ?hpt=hp_c2

A whopping 80% of voters turning out at a polling station in Bakhchysaray were not on the electoral roll, the registrar told CNN.

Those not on the roll have their passport and papers checked to establish identity. On the spot, election staff decide, with a show of hands, whether to allow those voters to participate.

Guessing there's a lot of "Do you love Mother Russia? Yes? Obviously you are a true and loyal Crimean citizen, vote away!"

[Asilian]

you were saying?....


-snip-

There is a difference between what happened, and a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

There may be to you, sensible as you are, but to the scared shitless Ukranian Prime Minister and the frusturated Secretary of State, there is not...A Russian Military toe on their soil at this point might as well signal WWIII

[Arglorand]

Liar liar, pants on fire.

[Estruia]

There is a difference between what happened, and a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

There may be to you, sensible as you are, but to the scared shitless Ukranian Prime Minister and the frusturated Secretary of State, there is not...A Russian Military toe on their soil at this point might as well signal WWIII

As much as it pains me to say this, if what you say is true, and the Ukrainian Government DOES react as if they are being invaded, what comes after is on the hands of those in Kiev. Border skirmishes =/= invasion.

[Shofercia]

That's incorrect. The last line clearly states that it requires a passport with proof of Crimean Residency. Re-read it.

Shit, you're actually right.

Ought've read it a bit more carefully.

I know I am

And I don't see any reason why Russia would have non-Crimeans voting on the referendum. Majority of the people there either view themselves as Russians or Crimeans, and hate the shitheads in Kiev, be they from West or East. Why antagonize the Crimean Voting Bloc if they're planning for the long term? I know it's an emotional issue, but you gotta step aside and question reports from all sides. "Why would Putin rig elections in a manner that antagonizes a potentially loyal voting bloc, when he has nothing to gain?"

[Gravlen]

Do you think the results of the referendum will be legitimate? Forget about not being "stellar democracy", do you think the vote will be free and fair?

I don't know. And I'm not afraid to admit it. I can, however, predict, judging by the economic data that I've presented, (I take it that you don't know much about Carville,) is that if Crimeans got to vote in a legitimate referendum, they'd vote to join Russia.

And that might be right. If Russia hadn't invaded and a legal referendum had been held, Crimea might have voted to join Russia. But they also might not have. Opinion polls presented earlier in the thread suggest that even ethnic Russians weren't unified in their desire to join Russia.

They won't come to Crimea because it's illegal, because it's an obvious sham, and because the Crimean authorities sets conditions which cannot reasonably be met.

But you were talking about Ukraine, it seems, and I'm still waiting for you to clarify if you think international observers should refuse to be present on the election scheduled for the 25th of may.

Not really. As long as Dobkin, or any other serious candidate from Eastern Ukraine or Western Ukraine is in jail or under house arrest, I think the election will be a joke, irrespective if the OSCE shows up or not.

If that election will be a joke, there should be no doubt that the Crimean referendum is as well. As has been shown, in the run-up to the referendum, activists for the pro-Ukrainian side have been subjectet to violence and threats, and some have 'disappeared'.

I'm not ignoring it it doesn't fit my "needs" (My needs? What are my needs, exactly? Can you clarify?), I'm ignoring it because that wasn't what we were talking about - in case you forget, we were talking about the presence of international observers - and because I don't necessarily disagree.

You'll have to explain how I'm bringing in things that are completely irrelevant when I'm talking about international observers in a conversation about international observers, and please also explain how I'm twisting your words and attacking you, because I frankly have no idea what you're talking about.

When I said that the May 25th elections won't be fair as long as any serious candidate from Eastern Ukraine or Western Ukraine is under house arrest, I wasn't referring to Crimea. And yet you opted to bring that in.

While the situations are closely connected, I brought up Crimea because you said international observers wouldn't come, and the only situation where we currently know that international observers won't come is in Crimea.

So with this post, what you were actually saying is that observers don't want to come to the election in Ukraine on the 25th of May, because they don't think that said elections are legitimate? If that's the correct understanding of your post, I'd like to see a source.

The post where you responded "so?" to someone suggesting that a political party might be banned?

That's not a source showing that observers don't want to come to the election in Ukraine on the 25th of May.

*snip*

I think you've misunderstood what I've said and the context in which I've said it.