Ukrainian Crisis

[The New Lowlands]

1) You understand that Russia is acting more left-wing than the EU on this issue, right?
I mean, that's not necessarily a bad thing- but you do get that, right?
2) Source?

Compare Russia's GDP growth for the past decade with EU's.

Which isn't necessarily a result of fiscal policy- rather, of Russia's vast natural resources.

[Volnotova]

"...release political prisoners, including former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko."

This is getting ridiculous now.

Either the opposition is utterly delusional or they really want to see the country burn.

[Hetalian Indie Rio de Janeiro]

Damn Ukrainians. Always relying on big ol' Uncle Russia for aid, they need to grow a fucking pair and join the EU.

This won't happen now or anytime soon (not anywhere in the next 15 years). This FTA would just fuck their lives over.

[Volnotova]

The exhibition hall housing the police that was besieged earlier has successfully been captured.

Protesters are cleaning up and reinforcing the building.

Click here for live report

(Note: Kyiv post seems to have taken up a pro-"protester" stance)

Opposition also claim they've discovered spent cartridges on the roof of the building (Which might have been used in the shooting of three protesters on the 22nd).

[Pravengria]

The exhibition hall housing the police that was besieged earlier has successfully been captured.

Protesters are cleaning up and reinforcing the building.

Click here for live report

(Note: Kyiv post seems to have taken up a pro-"protester" stance)

Opposition also claim they've discovered spent cartridges on the roof of the building (Which might have been used in the shooting of three protesters on the 22nd).

http://imgur.com/gallery/lnawg

Decided to delete rant-figured best, I'll vent anger on a few bottles instead.

[Volnotova]

New livestream (Other is down atm)

Some 5,000 protesters tried to force out the governor of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast but were repelled.

[Shofercia]

You don't get to riot and demand elections because a government adopted a policy that you don't like. That's mob rule, pure and simple. Can you imagine the sheer chaos that would result if every time someone didn't like policy X, and they could riot, they'd call for snap elections? "Yo, we're Tea Partiers, we don't like Obamacare, new elections, nao!" Because in those instances, the governments might simply adhere to mob rule, as politicians will do quite a bit to stay in power. And what about the very poor who have to work to make ends meet, and simply do not have time to be "politically active" in a riot? They'd simply be forgotten. The precedent that the rioters are asking for is either not going to work, or it'll lead to mob rule, and economic devastation for Ukraine.




Please see above for an explanation of why they're not reasonable.

The governments primary responsibility is to ensure law and order.
They have lost control of several cities.
In any normal democracy this would have led to a mass resignation and snap elections even BEFORE the demands were made.
The fact that the ruling parties senators or whatever havn't voted and passed a vote of no confidence is rather telling of the political culture of ukraine.

Should the US have had elections as a result of the Bonus Army? Should Italy's Neapolitan Parliament be having elections every day? Remember the time when there were ethnic uprisings in France, and cars burning? California during the Watts Riot? Granted, all of this was on a lesser degree, but it's not like you're giving us a clear rule. On top of that, setting a precedent that says "I don't like X policy, I riot, I get elections" is dangerous.

Compare Russia's GDP growth for the past decade with EU's.

Which isn't necessarily a result of fiscal policy- rather, of Russia's vast natural resources.

Did the USSR lack these natural resources? Did Yeltsin's Russia lack them? Nope. Putin directed a good chunk of natural resources away from corporate pockets, (the opposite of Khodorkovsky's policy,) and into economic growth. That led to economic growth.


Also: http://rt.com/news/ukraine-rioters-beat-police-202/

Disturbing footage from Ukraine shows violence spiraling out of control during anti-government protests, with rioters attacking and capturing policemen standing their ground. The Interior Ministry has hinted at a tough response if the unrest continues. Western media exploded with outrage at the abuse of a Ukrainian rioter who was stripped naked and mocked by the police for “particularly accurate” petrol bomb throwing. However, few outlets have highlighted the violence coming from those on the other side of the barricades. On Saturday, protesters in the city of Vinnitsa occupied the city council building, breaking a feeble cordon of interior troops. A triumphant mob cheered and poured into the building as the doors flung open, only to find that more police were blocking the stairs to the upper floors.

Armed with improvised clubs from pieces of broken furniture, dozens of aggressive rioters pounced at the police in an attempt to ram their way through. They tore off officers’ protective helmets and shields. The police stood their ground, having apparently not received an order to retaliate. Some of the officers that the rioters encountered on the ground floor served as a punching bag for aggressive youngsters, who kicked policemen and poured powder from fire extinguishers on their faces at point blank range. Rioters also pulled out a fire hose and aimed it at police. Several policemen were dragged away. Footage shows that some officers retreated to the upper floor. A police stun grenade could be seen exploding amid the crowd, though it did not set any of the rioters back.

Trying to light the cops on fire doesn't exactly look peaceful. I wonder what the US reaction would be, if Occupy Wall Street pulled that crap, while Russia and China told America to respect the rights of the protesters.

[NorthEast Alliance]

Clearly the situation in the Ukraine has deteriorated. If the terrorists continue this violent behaviour the Ukrainian government must unleash its armed forces and order its police to fight back. This will ensure the stability of Ukraine and protect law abiding citizens.

[DesAnges]

Am I right in thinking that the Ultras are acting as a bodyguard for the protestors now? I read something about that earlier, I'll try and dig it out again.

[Volnotova]

Clearly the situation in the Ukraine has deteriorated. If the terrorists continue this violent behaviour the Ukrainian government must unleash its armed forces and order its police to fight back. This will ensure the stability of Ukraine and protect law abiding citizens. a massacre and civil war

Fix'd

Don't worry though, because that is exactly where it is going. (Thanks to the uncompromising stance of the opposition)

[NorthEast Alliance]

Clearly the situation in the Ukraine has deteriorated. If the terrorists continue this violent behaviour the Ukrainian government must unleash its armed forces and order its police to fight back. This will ensure the stability of Ukraine and protect law abiding citizens. a massacre and civil war

Fix'd

Don't worry though, because that is exactly where it is going. (Thanks to the uncompromising stance of the opposition)

You think it will go that far?

[Volnotova]

Fix'd

Don't worry though, because that is exactly where it is going. (Thanks to the uncompromising stance of the opposition)

You think it will go that far?

Yes. Because "reason" and "moderation" do not exist in the opposition's vocabulary.

Their demands are utterly unreasonable (as a whole) and simply keep increasing. At first, they demanded that the protest laws be revoked. Now they demand the resignation of the entire government, the president, the revoking of the laws, the release of ALL political prisoners (including convincted former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko), early/snap elections AND the signing of the EU free trade deal.

They have tried to capture even more regional headquarters today (located in regions with strong support for the current ruling president) but were repelled (with force I might add).

It is the opposition threatening civil war if they don't get their way. They have forced the government into a situation where the only solution will be to fight them.

I can only hope that - due to some freak accident - a sense of reason returns before the scheduled special parliament session on thuesday and that they will not somehow BLOW that as well. (In which case all bets will be off)

[New Rogernomics]

Please show me a time period when there was democracy in the Ukraine. Some guy I forget? Kuchma? Yushenko? Yanukovich? Timoshenko? When Timoshenko tried to get some semblance of democracy, she was caged up by both, the Western honey bunny Yushenko, and the Oligarchic Yanukovich. Additionally, calling Timoshenko's rise to power democratic seems a bit... odd. I just cannot help but chuckle every time I read a headline about democracy dying in Ukraine. It's amazing, dying before being born. A feat worthy of Houdini. During the volatile 1990s, Timoshenko was in the oil business, a notoriously corrupt business at the time in the post Soviet states. Maybe she was the shining exception. She went ahead to try to monopolize oil and gas in Ukraine, and in the late 1990s, became knows as the "Gas Princess" - again, this isn't a title that you'd get without a good deal of corruption. And Timoshenko, along with her husband, were arrested for corruption by the Kuchma Goverment.

It was after the arrest, that Timoshenko went into politics, helping Yushenko rise to power. Again there was quite a bit of corruption; for instance, the sales of Ukraine's Soviet military equipment to Georgia, managed to mysteriously vanish. In 2008 Timoshenko made a positive turn in politics, realizing that the leadership was going mad. She was eventually jailed for acting sane. Timoshenko called for Ukraine to adopt a stance similar to Italy's in response to the Ossetian War, to be in line with the EU. For this she was dubbed a traitor by Yushenko. So she switched towards Yanukovich. Turns out the majority of Ukrainians didn't want to fight Russia, and Yushenko got the boot. Timoshenko now became a threat to Yanukovich and the Oligarchs, so they asked Yushenko to back stab her, in exchange for dropping charges against him. He did so faster than a doggy chasing his tail.

Show me a time period when there was democracy without significant corruption in Russia? Ukraine is by no means akin to a liberal democracy, but they are still ranked internationally as having a freer democratic system than Russia; though this has naturally taken a hit as a result of the more authoritarian government in power in Ukraine. Yulia Tymoshenko was by no means perfect, but I doubt she could get anything done politically without some level of corruption, when the other parties she was working with were so corrupt (along with some members of her own party); the issue is the hypocrisy and politically motivated arrest of Yulia Tymoshenko, when her political rivals were widely known for their corrupt and authoritarian way of doing things. It is pretty undeniable though that democracy has taken a hit, and the government over-reaction to the protests (including anti-protest laws) will only fan the flames; they have angered enough people that the government may well be toppled - as to who takes over, and whether the protests will stop and start again close to the elections, is an open question.

This isn't a democracy. It never was. Sure Timoshenko acted democratically, after she was already in power, rising to power by not exactly democratic means.

Reminds me of Putin and the government of the Russian Federation, but it might upset you to know the Russian Federation is ranked as less democratic than Ukraine, so it is hardly surprising that the government in Ukraine and the government in Russia are natural allies; and the protesters* are well aware of that fact. Though I must admit the Russian government hasn't made the stupid mistake of responding to protests, the way the Ukrainian government has.

*On a side note: Right-wing extremists love the Ukrainian government as they are giving them everything they want. They want the Ukrainian government to take a violent response to the protests, and bans on peaceful protests will only bring more of them out; they want to take on the police and security forces. Sometimes the only effective response is a non-response, when the police and security forces show up they encourage more protesters to show up i.e. escalation.

[New Rogernomics]

Also: http://rt.com/news/ukraine-rioters-beat-police-202/

Disturbing footage from Ukraine shows violence spiraling out of control during anti-government protests, with rioters attacking and capturing policemen standing their ground. The Interior Ministry has hinted at a tough response if the unrest continues. Western media exploded with outrage at the abuse of a Ukrainian rioter who was stripped naked and mocked by the police for “particularly accurate” petrol bomb throwing. However, few outlets have highlighted the violence coming from those on the other side of the barricades. On Saturday, protesters in the city of Vinnitsa occupied the city council building, breaking a feeble cordon of interior troops. A triumphant mob cheered and poured into the building as the doors flung open, only to find that more police were blocking the stairs to the upper floors.

Armed with improvised clubs from pieces of broken furniture, dozens of aggressive rioters pounced at the police in an attempt to ram their way through. They tore off officers’ protective helmets and shields. The police stood their ground, having apparently not received an order to retaliate. Some of the officers that the rioters encountered on the ground floor served as a punching bag for aggressive youngsters, who kicked policemen and poured powder from fire extinguishers on their faces at point blank range. Rioters also pulled out a fire hose and aimed it at police. Several policemen were dragged away. Footage shows that some officers retreated to the upper floor. A police stun grenade could be seen exploding amid the crowd, though it did not set any of the rioters back.

Trying to light the cops on fire doesn't exactly look peaceful. I wonder what the US reaction would be, if Occupy Wall Street pulled that crap, while Russia and China told America to respect the rights of the protesters.

The US government hasn't got enough anger directed at it, and the US also doesn't have as major a problem with right-wing extremists i.e. Ukraine has a lot of right-wing nationalist groups and ethnic fighters (many of which have military training and experience). You could make that claim if the US actually had extreme groups and ethnic strife to the extent Ukraine has, but it doesn't. The Ukraine government was incredibly stupid to respond the way it did, sending police and security forces in only works if it can instil fear or if the protesters have a neutral or positive view of police and security forces doing their jobs (not active hostility). Those that want a fight, are actively encouraged on by the presence of police and security forces. I doubt Americans hate their police and national guard (though you could argue police brutality is an issue), nor see them as corrupt, as people do in Ukraine.

[Greed and Death]

"...release political prisoners, including former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko."

This is getting ridiculous now.

Either the opposition is utterly delusional or they really want to see the country burn.

Have you watched the videos.
http://rt.com/news/ukraine-rioters-beat-police-202/

They are capturing city halls all over the country. This is no longer a riot this is a civil war.

[Greed and Death]

Clearly the situation in the Ukraine has deteriorated. If the terrorists continue this violent behaviour the Ukrainian government must unleash its armed forces and order its police to fight back. This will ensure the stability of Ukraine and protect law abiding citizens. a massacre and civil war

Fix'd

Don't worry though, because that is exactly where it is going. (Thanks to the uncompromising stance of the opposition)

I wish people protested this way in the US.

[Wamitoria]

Fix'd

Don't worry though, because that is exactly where it is going. (Thanks to the uncompromising stance of the opposition)

I wish people protested this way in the US.

Me, too.

[New Rogernomics]

"...release political prisoners, including former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko."

This is getting ridiculous now.

Either the opposition is utterly delusional or they really want to see the country burn.

Have you watched the videos.
http://rt.com/news/ukraine-rioters-beat-police-202/

They are capturing city halls all over the country. This is no longer a riot this is a civil war.

Not sure about that, the government could easily concede to early elections without a fight, and the opposition wants early elections; not a war. The issue is that right-wing extreme groups and ethnic fighters are mixing in with the protesters, and making it less peaceful; but civil war is a media spin without much ground behind it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... SaVz8r431w

[Lyttenburgh]

This situation on the Ukraine made me thinking:

"They need their own Napoleon".

No, seriously - only a strong authoritative figure with some military background could disperse all these rioters in the center of the national capital, restore order by any means necessary (yes, including the now proverbial "whiff of grapeshot"), and then, if there will be need, deconstruct Ukrainian Directory Government in favour of smth more efficient (with himself at the top). After that, this Ukrainian Bonaparte can play the eternal game of asking money/favours from the West/Russia, threatening the other party to turn his policy 180-degree if pushed too far.

But even that scenario won't work now. 10 years ago, during the Orange Revolution - perhaps, but not now. Because:

A) Russia now is really tired of all this kind of games - just remember how Lukashenko - of all the people! - threatened to "turn to the West" in 2010/11 period. Poland and Lithuania sincerely believed him - that he, would free prisons his political opponents and allow honest elections! (Washington, as usual, just didn't care - if there is an opportunity to harm Russia and increase the "Free World's" influence, even by supporting someone whom you just yesterday called a "dictator" - it dill do it). End result? Lukashenko got himself a discount on Russian Gas, released no one and won elections. Again.
So, instead of having this kind of crap any other year Russia designs "Eurasian Trade Association". Joining is totally voluntary obligatory for those, who want to suck Russia's gas for reasonably low prices. No more wriggling, Bat'ka!

B) EU (and "the West" in general) decided that "in the glorious fight for the Democracy(tm) there are no bystanders!". Join on "Eastern Partnership's" conditions or suffer! Cash credit? Silly rabbit - credits are only for humans EU members! You will only get vague promises, a lot of encouragement and pats on the back! And this is our carrot. Our stick - you know we have a propaganda machine of such zombyfying power, that even Goebbels would be ashamed to inflict it on the innocents, do you? Now imagine, what would IT do to you, hm?

P.S.

It's no longer "a peaceful protests", people. Even if State Dep or your local Ministry of Truth says so. They are armed and dangerous rioters, who wants to topple democratically elected government of the sovereign nation. If you by any chance forgot - if America does not like any particular government, that is not (surprise-surprise!) a reason to unseat it.
Now, Janukovich has only one option - to crush this riots completely and restore sovereignty of his country. Yeah, in short term it means - weeping, moaning and gnashing of teeth from the West and alliance (of survival) with Russia, But it's much more better, than what would the Ukraine face if "Maidaners" would get an upper hand.

[Volnotova]

"...release political prisoners, including former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko."

This is getting ridiculous now.

Either the opposition is utterly delusional or they really want to see the country burn.

Have you watched the videos.
http://rt.com/news/ukraine-rioters-beat-police-202/

They are capturing city halls all over the country. This is no longer a riot this is a civil war.

Not yet, but it will be soon (If the opposition don't start being reasonable).

Also, I haven't noticed any region HQs being taken in Yanukovych strongholds (in fact, "protesters" tried to do so twice today and were repelled).

Not sure about that, the government could easily concede to early elections without a fight, and the opposition wants early elections; not a war. The issue is that right-wing extreme groups and ethnic fighters are mixing in with the protesters, and making it less peaceful; but civil war is a media spin without much ground behind it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... SaVz8r431w

The problem is, the opposition doesn't just want that.

They don't just want the president gone, they want him and his cronies to commit political suicide.

Their demands are the equivalent of unconditional surrender. And the President won't have it (neither his allies): Because they know exactly what will happen if they do (one only needs to look at the imprisoned former prime minister, who's release btw is now also demanded by the opposition)

Every time the government comes even close to a compromise the opposition puts up new outrageous demands. (Arguably these "compromises" could, as I believe, be mere political ploys that are not intended to be accepted by the opposition in the first place: thus knowingly making them look unreasonable and hurting their legitimacy)

Both sides have threatened violence (The interior minister I believe basically stated that trying to resolve this conflict through non-violence was futile).

[Nostrodamus]

This a very dark sign. This could be a sign the situation in Ukraine will not be resolved as peacefully as most would hope.

There are two paths to avoid a major war over Ukraine.

1. Ukraine can split into separate east and west halves. The western half of Ukraine has tended to be more western oriented while the eastern half has tended to be more Russian oriented. While the two sides are stubborn about what they view to be the best future for Ukraine, there are those on both halves who have said they would oppose separation. However more of eastern Ukraine supports this option than do people in western Ukraine. It is likely that if East Ukraine choose to seperate, the western half may attempt to hold it in by sheer military force. Property is destroyed and people are killed in a Ukrainian civil war which could see intervention from Russia and Europe. Even if this matter were settled peacefully, the issue will continue to haunt Ukraine, threatening to flare up into full scale war. The two halves have not been getting along very well. This is represented by the black crow repeatedly pecking on the dove.

2. The other option would be for Ukraine to join both the Russian trade block and the European trade block. This would require Europe to make a special exemption for Ukraine but if this is done, Ukraine could prosper by serving as an economic gateway between Russia and the rest of Europe. Trade between the Russians and the Europeans would move through Ukraine which stands to profit greatly from having control over the land based trade routes between the two blocks. Ukraine has Europhiles and Russophiles which turns out to be it's best asset because the two groups can best position Ukraine in regards to negotiations with Europe and Russia.

It is true that at the moment Russia is dictating terms to Ukraine but I believe Russia is overplaying its hand. True, Russia does control both oil and gas to both Ukraine and Europe but it is Ukraine that controls Russian access to Europe not just for manufactured goods but also, Russian oil and gas have to go through Ukraine to get to Europe and just as Russia can block those resources, so can Ukraine.

If Ukrainians can smooth out their differences to avoid a break up, they could play a major economic role between two major regions of the world. This would turn Ukraine into a major economic power. This is represented by the sea gull attacking the dove.

What ever happens in our time, ultimately Ukraine is destined to become a regional super power. The future of not just Ukraine, but also of both Europe and Russia hangs in the balance.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/pope-franc ... -1.2511761

[Indira]

Regional superpower!?! OP, WHAT have you been smoking!?! Most likely politicians will bluster and eventually sit down and get on with what they need to do.

[Jerusalemian]

Why can't we just give Ukraine to Andorra?

[Avenio]

Why can't we just give Ukraine to Andorra?

Because that would only appease the Andorran military juggernaut and its dastardly Luxembourgish allies.

[Mefpan]

And the rats shall inherit the Earth!

No. Most likely not, no. Europe's not going to go to war over the Ukraine's trade affiliations, not in this time. It's safe to say that we either see a preservation of status quo or the Ukraine drawing closer to Russia.

And the idea of the Ukraine becoming a super power in any relevant fraction of time is, well, I don't need to say how likely that is given their dependence on Russian goodwill and trade.

If the Ukraine breaks apart, I'm not entirely sure it'll flare up into open war, since I'm pretty damn certain Russia will strongarm its way between the conflicting sides and use its status as the very big, powerful neighbour to ensure they don't start to tear each other apart.

However, should you be right after all and this turns into a world-ending war to end all wars (v. 2.0!), then you are hereby granted the right to state "I told you so!".