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15 Years to Evacuate Planet Earth- could we do it?

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The yoshin empire
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Postby The yoshin empire » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:21 pm

Imperializt Russia wrote:
The yoshin empire wrote:Hmmm , what about the pollution to the water supply and wind carrying fallout?

Minimal.

Would it at least get rid of zwitserland?

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Postby Imperializt Russia » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:24 pm

The yoshin empire wrote:
Imperializt Russia wrote:Minimal.

Would it at least get rid of zwitserland?

It wouldn't be operating at normal capacity, no.
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United Republics of Aralon
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Postby United Republics of Aralon » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:26 pm

Larban wrote:Okay, so lets say a cataclysmic cosmic event has been forecast for sometime in the near future, lets say 15 years so 2028, and it has been declared to be unavoidable, i.e. we can't go up there Bruce Willis-style and detonate a nuke on it. Would it be possible for the inhabitants of Earth, including every country, to innovate, design and build an evacuation plan and hence craft to evacuate and sustain the entire global population away from Earth; in the space of 15 years? It would have to take every man pulling together, for wars to be stopped and for debts to be forgiven, for even the slightest chance of accomplishing such a mammoth task, but the driving force is for the good and the ultimate survival of humanity, a common cause for everyone. Could this be achieved, of course with obstacles such as water, oxygen, and food production being overcome? What do you think?

Noae we could probably send off a few spacecraft here and there, but saving the bulk of humanity is not possible and it would have no sense. at the current situation I'd say it'd take at least 60 years or so to set a terraforming project of some sort into motion(I'd say Mars is a logical candidate),even if all of Earth would unite.
What could be pulled off is building a few O'Neill cylinders ,essentially, big rotating cylindrical space stations of several to several tens of kilometers in length and a few kms-to few tens of kms in diameter that provide artificial gravity by rotation, capable of housing self sustaining ecologies.Then these colonies(or one colony) could be the roots of future expansion.

Though luckily a catastrophy that we can neither prevent in 15 years nor ready ourselves to survive it here on earth are very unlikely.
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The yoshin empire
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Postby The yoshin empire » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:27 pm

Imperializt Russia wrote:
The yoshin empire wrote:Would it at least get rid of zwitserland?

It wouldn't be operating at normal capacity, no.

Ok , but what about the shockwave?

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MYAWESOMENESS
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Postby MYAWESOMENESS » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:28 pm

I think we could if we had the technology and a place to go

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Postby Confederate People of the United States » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:31 pm

15 NO 50 MAYBE 75 YES
------------------------------
15 we won't have enough time to plan, keep the masses in control and get up there with enough people.
50 masses may still riot but if all goes well we may be able to send a few to Mars and create an environment in a small area.
100 the masses will not fear because they will probably be dead by then, they will want to do it for their children, wars will cease and all countries will work together. All that said, nobody will be allowed to use fuel.
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The Republic of Llamas
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Postby The Republic of Llamas » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:32 pm

It would be possible to evacuate part of Earth and establish a colony on Mars. We wouldn't all survive, though. It'd probably just be the ones from rich, developed countries (i.e. The US and Europe) with the resources to attempt to save most of their population.

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Postby Great Nepal » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:33 pm

MYAWESOMENESS wrote:I think we could if we had the technology and a place to go

And I could build myself space empire if I had money and technology to build massive fleets of warships capable of warp... :p
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The yoshin empire
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Postby The yoshin empire » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:34 pm

Confederate People of the United States wrote:15 NO 50 MAYBE 75 YES
------------------------------
15 we won't have enough time to plan, keep the masses in control and get up there with enough people.
50 masses may still riot but if all goes well we may be able to send a few to Mars and create an environment in a small area.
100 the masses will not fear because they will probably be dead by then, they will want to do it for their children, wars will cease and all countries will work together. All that said, nobody will be allowed to use fuel.

You need atleast 10000 .

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Postby United Republics of Aralon » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:34 pm

The Republic of Llamas wrote:It would be possible to evacuate part of Earth and establish a colony on Mars. We wouldn't all survive, though. It'd probably just be the ones from rich, developed countries (i.e. The US and Europe) with the resources to attempt to save most of their population.

In a 15 years time frame orbital habitats would be a better choice. It takes a lot of resources to ferry stuff to Mars which could be used to house more people though I'd say about 100 million evacuees is the best we could do.
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Postby UED » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:38 pm

I believe a small portion can be saved but 7 billion is WAY TO MUCH. I think we could maybe evacuate somewhere between hundreds to millions but it will be extremely hard. As for a new colony? It would be extremely hard just to reach places like Mars and Venus, and both are not habitable, I mean, terraforming would probably take decades or centuries most likely. We can build space stations but the question is can they sustain themselves? (make food, make drinkable water, etc)
Last edited by UED on Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Imperializt Russia » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:41 pm

The yoshin empire wrote:
Imperializt Russia wrote:It wouldn't be operating at normal capacity, no.

Ok , but what about the shockwave?

You'll kill a city.
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Postby United Republics of Aralon » Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:55 pm

UED wrote:I believe a small portion can be saved but 7 billion is WAY TO MUCH. I think we could maybe evacuate somewhere between hundreds to millions but it will be extremely hard. As for a new colony? It would be extremely hard just to reach places like Mars and Venus, and both are not habitable, I mean, terraforming would probably take decades or centuries most likely. We can build space stations but the question is can they sustain themselves? (make food, make drinkable water, etc)

Theoretically yes.One just needs to create a food cycle,sunlight is available in space to give energy necessary to sustain biomass. However the ecology needs to be large enough to host enough of ecach participating species to avoid genetoc degeneration(this could be circumvented to some degree). As much as I know no one has run a self sustaining micro ecology experiment yet,However.
Last edited by United Republics of Aralon on Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Northwest Slobovia » Mon Nov 11, 2013 6:15 pm

United Republics of Aralon wrote:
UED wrote:I believe a small portion can be saved but 7 billion is WAY TO MUCH. I think we could maybe evacuate somewhere between hundreds to millions but it will be extremely hard. As for a new colony? It would be extremely hard just to reach places like Mars and Venus, and both are not habitable, I mean, terraforming would probably take decades or centuries most likely. We can build space stations but the question is can they sustain themselves? (make food, make drinkable water, etc)

Theoretically yes.One just needs to create a food cycle,sunlight is available in space to give energy necessary to sustain biomass. However the ecology needs to be large enough to host enough of ecach participating species to avoid genetoc degeneration(this could be circumvented to some degree). As much as I know no one has run a self sustaining micro ecology experiment yet,However.

Not on anything like the scale necessary. It's possible to buy toy closed aquatic environments, but they're a few liters volume at most. You mention "genetic degeneration"; I guess you mean inbreeding depression. Oh, that's one of the problems, but hardly the biggest.

We'd be very vulnerable to the rise of new pathogens (viruses, bacteria, fungi... even "good" insects gone "bad"). Ya can't stop evolution. Here on Earth, we rely on the Earth's huge size to slow to new pathogens. Right now, there's a new kind of wheat rust (a fungus; the strain is called Ug99). If that were to hit every wheat field at once, we'd be fucked. But it can't, because it spreads by spores, and the speed the wind carries them isn't that fast relative to the size of the Earth. But in a tiny, closed environment, we could get disease outbreaks that would wipe out plants, animals, even us, before we really knew we had a problem.

Nor do we know how to manage to sort of closed-loop recycling the Earth's biosphere does for us. Or any other of the technical issues that crop up once we take a hard look at the problem. It's an ugly, ugly problem.
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Postby Breadknife » Mon Nov 11, 2013 7:28 pm

Divair wrote:and the complete decimation of anyone left behind..


*cough*

I think you mean something like "annihilation".
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Postby Northwest Slobovia » Mon Nov 11, 2013 7:56 pm

Breadknife wrote:
Divair wrote:and the complete decimation of anyone left behind..


*cough*

I think you mean something like "annihilation".

Well, for some disasters, there will be a few. Sure, vulcanism like produced the Deccan Traps isn't survivable, because the air becomes poisonous. But a dinosaur-killer is survivable. They'll be a handful of survivors scattered across the world... which has been plunged into a new, very dark ice age. The decsendants of the folks who fled will probably find some survivors on Earth in formerly-tropical areas.
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Postby Ecans » Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:32 am

United Republics of Aralon wrote:
Larban wrote:Okay, so lets say a cataclysmic cosmic event has been forecast for sometime in the near future, lets say 15 years so 2028, and it has been declared to be unavoidable, i.e. we can't go up there Bruce Willis-style and detonate a nuke on it. Would it be possible for the inhabitants of Earth, including every country, to innovate, design and build an evacuation plan and hence craft to evacuate and sustain the entire global population away from Earth; in the space of 15 years? It would have to take every man pulling together, for wars to be stopped and for debts to be forgiven, for even the slightest chance of accomplishing such a mammoth task, but the driving force is for the good and the ultimate survival of humanity, a common cause for everyone. Could this be achieved, of course with obstacles such as water, oxygen, and food production being overcome? What do you think?

Noae we could probably send off a few spacecraft here and there, but saving the bulk of humanity is not possible and it would have no sense. at the current situation I'd say it'd take at least 60 years or so to set a terraforming project of some sort into motion(I'd say Mars is a logical candidate),even if all of Earth would unite.
What could be pulled off is building a few O'Neill cylinders ,essentially, big rotating cylindrical space stations of several to several tens of kilometers in length and a few kms-to few tens of kms in diameter that provide artificial gravity by rotation, capable of housing self sustaining ecologies.Then these colonies(or one colony) could be the roots of future expansion.

Though luckily a catastrophy that we can neither prevent in 15 years nor ready ourselves to survive it here on earth are very unlikely.

Good. If we think a little larger we could consider how the O'Neill cylinders might be propelled and therefore used as colony/ships and move to a pre-scouted planet orbiting a stable star. Mars is just too long a project and would support a very small population for centuries. Develop a long-term and compact source of energy and away we go!
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Postby Starkiller101 » Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:35 am

Nope we would just all burn.
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Postby Rapidblaze » Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:36 am

i bet that there will be some secret technology a powerful country has made and is just waiting for the apocalypse. i mean, all these conspiracies (or im just crazy) don't add to nothing do they xD

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Postby The yoshin empire » Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:36 am

Ecans wrote:
United Republics of Aralon wrote:Noae we could probably send off a few spacecraft here and there, but saving the bulk of humanity is not possible and it would have no sense. at the current situation I'd say it'd take at least 60 years or so to set a terraforming project of some sort into motion(I'd say Mars is a logical candidate),even if all of Earth would unite.
What could be pulled off is building a few O'Neill cylinders ,essentially, big rotating cylindrical space stations of several to several tens of kilometers in length and a few kms-to few tens of kms in diameter that provide artificial gravity by rotation, capable of housing self sustaining ecologies.Then these colonies(or one colony) could be the roots of future expansion.

Though luckily a catastrophy that we can neither prevent in 15 years nor ready ourselves to survive it here on earth are very unlikely.

Good. If we think a little larger we could consider how the O'Neill cylinders might be propelled and therefore used as colony/ships and move to a pre-scouted planet orbiting a stable star. Mars is just too long a project and would support a very small population for centuries. Develop a long-term and compact source of energy and away we go!

Torus colonies would be cheaper and weigh les.

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Postby Vulpae » Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:54 am

We could pull it off due to desperation, humanity is brilliant when it comes down to last minute survival. That fact has been proven again and again.
Not everyone mind you, but on the whole.

More developed nations will be more represented, US, EU, China, Canada, Russia, Brazil, India, ect. First world nations working togeather could pull it off. But there are many places in the third world that will be left out in the cold, especally those who are disliked by the international community.
that's not to say they won't get aboard, but if space is limited, guess who gets crammed into steerage, or get the last seats? It will be the guys from Iran, N. Korea, and likely any obstructionist factions/countries will get left behind.

Before the Anti-US trolls get into further fingerpointing, and "anti-imperialist" hypocracy, Give the US population, and government a chance to play hero and save the world, and almost the entire country would unite behind the effort.

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Postby Distruzio » Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:14 pm

Larban wrote:Okay, so lets say a cataclysmic cosmic event has been forecast for sometime in the near future, lets say 15 years so 2028, and it has been declared to be unavoidable, i.e. we can't go up there Bruce Willis-style and detonate a nuke on it. Would it be possible for the inhabitants of Earth, including every country, to innovate, design and build an evacuation plan and hence craft to evacuate and sustain the entire global population away from Earth; in the space of 15 years? It would have to take every man pulling together, for wars to be stopped and for debts to be forgiven, for even the slightest chance of accomplishing such a mammoth task, but the driving force is for the good and the ultimate survival of humanity, a common cause for everyone. Could this be achieved, of course with obstacles such as water, oxygen, and food production being overcome? What do you think?


Not AND survive until the 15 years is up.

The global economy is geared in a way that allows the 7 billion their current livelihoods. A global economy geared to avoid such a catastrophe would see many billions die as it raced to achieve its goal.
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Postby Ashmoria » Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:23 pm

Larban wrote:Okay, so lets say a cataclysmic cosmic event has been forecast for sometime in the near future, lets say 15 years so 2028, and it has been declared to be unavoidable, i.e. we can't go up there Bruce Willis-style and detonate a nuke on it. Would it be possible for the inhabitants of Earth, including every country, to innovate, design and build an evacuation plan and hence craft to evacuate and sustain the entire global population away from Earth; in the space of 15 years? It would have to take every man pulling together, for wars to be stopped and for debts to be forgiven, for even the slightest chance of accomplishing such a mammoth task, but the driving force is for the good and the ultimate survival of humanity, a common cause for everyone. Could this be achieved, of course with obstacles such as water, oxygen, and food production being overcome? What do you think?

no

we might could have the wherewithall to design and build a habitat for a few thousand that might have a chance of working long enough to .....i dont know...no we couldnt. even if we built something to hold a few thousands it would never get anywhere where we could live permanently so it would only work until a catastrophic failure killed everyone on it.
whatever

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Great Nepal
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Postby Great Nepal » Thu Nov 14, 2013 3:23 pm

Ashmoria wrote:we might could have the wherewithall to design and build a habitat for a few thousand that might have a chance of working long enough to .....i dont know...no we couldnt. even if we built something to hold a few thousands it would never get anywhere where we could live permanently so it would only work until a catastrophic failure killed everyone on it.

We dont need to build permanent habitat straight off, just one that sustains life for fifty years or a century. They can then build another permanent habitat, or one that can sustain them for few more centuries...
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Wisconsin9
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Postby Wisconsin9 » Thu Nov 14, 2013 3:38 pm

Maybe a few hundred thousand people, 1.5 million at the very least realistic top.
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