NATION

PASSWORD

World of the Future?

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Larban
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Posts: 206
Founded: Nov 07, 2012
Ex-Nation

Postby Larban » Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:07 am

Frisivisia wrote:Boring, less catastrophic than we think, more than we want, Republican Party sinks into obscurity.

Yeah, I'm inclined to agree with that- in the 80's I think the world imagined that today's world- that of the 2010's- would be totally different in every way. But here we are, and despite the moderate changes in technology, the overall world hasn't changed that much. Sorry I haven't replied sooner, I was asleep

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Quintium
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Founded: May 23, 2012
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Postby Quintium » Fri Aug 02, 2013 5:46 am

1. There will be many more conflicts in Africa than there are today. Rapid population growth, combined with an agricultural sector that can't keep up and European aid no longer being a certainty, will cause famines and epidemics and trigger ethnic conflicts. This phenomenon will start in those parts of Africa that are most affected by desertification - I'd say Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, the countries that have already faced famines and large-scale armed conflicts in the past decade or two. Alternatively, similar conflicts could arise in places like Mali or Mauritania. However, it will not remain limited to these dry areas. Other points of interest are Nigeria, because of its large population and increasing ethnic and sectarian violence, and Congo, because in a world where resources will become increasingly scarce, it'll be piggy in the middle and every nation in the world will want to control a nation that's on top of boatloads of precious metals and rainforests.

2. There is a lot of trouble ahead for Europe also. In a world where resources are becoming increasingly scarce, Europe's dependence on the financial sector and the service industry will become very worrying. In addition, widespread economic downturn will continue to ravage the continent. The inner cities, filled with migrants from the Middle East, South Asia and Africa, will become more and more dangerous, and the governments of Western European countries will have more and more difficulty exerting any kind of real authority there. Effectively, sub-nations will form, and they won't automatically accept the law of the land, sometimes even fighting for their group's socio-cultural independence. Large-scale riots, the type never seen before, are almost a certainty. For Europe, the hope's in Eastern Europe and the Western European countryside - places that can still produce large amounts of food very efficiently, have no real shortages of drinking water and have to their advantage the most developed agricultural technologies in the world. The main dangers are the big cities and the borders to the rest of the world.

3. The Americas, Australia and New Zealand will face a lot of difficulties, but will certainly come out on top as long as they secure access to durable energy and clean drinking water. The United States will continue to make deals all around the world for energy and resources. Australia and New Zealand have the benefit of being far away from the rest of the world and being relatively unimportant. Their resources don't weigh up to the difficulty of going there to displace the people who live there. Many South American countries could develop into major powers, unless they destroy the natural environment in their efforts to grow economically.

4. China could well become a surprising loser in the future. Already, the country is struggling. In some ways, it's a lot like Europe - it has a massive housing bubble, an economy that's not doing what it should be doing, much-reduced growth and a population pyramid that's destined for civil strife. I expect the Chinese economy to take a very worrying turn for the worse, with prices of fuel and resources rising and the Chinese population suffering under economic mismanagement, an aging population and the corruption within the government. I expect that the People's Republic of China is entering its last two decades now. Eventually, it'll collapse either from within or after large-scale protests and riots against the way the country is being governed.

5. India and Pakistan could become major losers in this scenario. They both have large amounts of people living in bitter poverty, and they both struggle to keep up. India's economic miracle will be cut short by developments in the rest of the world and the growing scarcity of resources and fuel. What remains, then, will be a large country with well over a billion - perhaps one and a half billion by that time - inhabitants, all struggling to just stay alive. What follows, as it always does in those circumstances, is political and social unrest. This could become a major spot of bother in the west of India and in Pakistan, which will be facing the same problems. The two rivals, already not at all on amicable terms, will start fighting over whatever's left. Provided, that is, that they haven't collapsed from within already - Pakistan under the islamists and the Taliban, and India under regionalists, marxist insurgencies and hindu nationalists.

6. Russia could do alright. Of all European countries, it is adapting best to a changing world, seeking pragmatic and strategic alliances with those countries that can offer Russia tangible economic or strategic interests. However, as unrest spreads on all sides of Russia, it'll need to militarise quickly and efficiently, or the south and the east of Russia could be overrun by all kinds of factions that will make the Caucasus look like child's play.

7. The Middle East faces unending unrest. Think Egypt times a thousand with some Syria thrown in. As oil reserves are depleted or oil is replaced by cleaner and more durable ways of fueling economies around the world, the Middle East will have a very hard time keeping up. Oil was their miracle and the main gimmick in their economic act, and now those days are over. Cities like Riyadh, Dubai and Abu Dhabi will deteriorate, with oil depleted and financial services becoming less and less profitable, and many of their inhabitants will be forced to return to the areas they came from. Food prices and scarcity will cause unrest much worse than currently in Egypt throughout the region.
I'm a melancholic, bipedal, 1/128th Native Batavian polyhistor. My preferred pronouns are "his majesty"/"his majesty".

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Bentrada
Diplomat
 
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Founded: May 11, 2013
Ex-Nation

Postby Bentrada » Fri Aug 02, 2013 5:47 am


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Sarthal
Attaché
 
Posts: 78
Founded: Jul 29, 2013
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Postby Sarthal » Fri Aug 02, 2013 5:54 am

The demand for some resources will skyrocket and nations will constantly look for new ways to increase the production.

The average microprocessor will have transistors of length under 5nm. Transistors won't be based on silicon, but Germanium or Si/Ge instead.

New nations will be born, from larger nations. Nigeria will most likely be split in Muslim/Christian Nigeria.

World population will peak.

Also,


Quintium wrote:4. China could well become a surprising loser in the future. Already, the country is struggling. In some ways, it's a lot like Europe - it has a massive housing bubble, an economy that's not doing what it should be doing, much-reduced growth and a population pyramid that's destined for civil strife. I expect the Chinese economy to take a very worrying turn for the worse, with prices of fuel and resources rising and the Chinese population suffering under economic mismanagement, an aging population and the corruption within the government.I expect that the People's Republic of China is entering its last two decades now. Eventually, it'll collapse either from within or after large-scale protests and riots against the way the country is being governed.

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