Australian Elections 2013

[AiliailiA]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DG5LvGuSOEw

Tony Abbott vs Skrillex. Quite funny.

"Suppository of all wisdom" is a funny gaffe to be sure. I don't take gaffes very seriously though, unless there's an indication the pollie was trying to use a word they don't know the meaning of.

Abbott was a Rhodes scholar*, I don't think he's dumb or ill-educated.


*Bob Hawke, Kim Beazley and Malcolm Turnbull were too.

[Forster Keys]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DG5LvGuSOEw

Tony Abbott vs Skrillex. Quite funny.

"Suppository of all wisdom" is a funny gaffe to be sure. I don't take gaffes very seriously though, unless there's an indication the pollie was trying to use a word they don't know the meaning of.

Abbott was a Rhodes scholar*, I don't think he's dumb or ill-educated.


*Bob Hawke, Kim Beazley and Malcolm Turnbull were too.

No, I don't think he is either.

[AiliailiA]

No election talk from the Australians? I woke up this morning and saw Abbott gaffe on same-sex and I just groaned thinking, even though he is going to lose at least make it a competition don't allow more seats to swing back to red.

He's not going to lose. Polls are saying he will gain votes.

His party has a pretty safe lead (government being decided by seats not gross number of votes of course) but Abbott is still behind in preferred prime minister polling. That's taken so much for granted that going up four percentage points to be only NINE points behind Rudd is seen as a great improvement in his stature.

If he does become Prime Minister (as seems likely), I don't think the people are going to get to like him any better. I wonder if despite the crocodile tears about Gillard "stabbing in the back" Rudd, exactly the same thing happens in the Liberal party.

[Regnum Dominae]

Or hopefully a new party encompassing a new third way

I'm hoping for something a little more like SYRIZA personally.

Is Syriza the insane one or am I thinking of kke?

[Beta Test]

He's not going to lose. Polls are saying he will gain votes.

His party has a pretty safe lead (government being decided by seats not gross number of votes of course) but Abbott is still behind in preferred prime minister polling. That's taken so much for granted that going up four percentage points to be only NINE points behind Rudd is seen as a great improvement in his stature.

If he does become Prime Minister (as seems likely), I don't think the people are going to get to like him any better. I wonder if despite the crocodile tears about Gillard "stabbing in the back" Rudd, exactly the same thing happens in the Liberal party.

If Abbott has troubles, Turnbull could very well make a comeback, something I wouldn't mind actually.

[Forster Keys]

I'm hoping for something a little more like SYRIZA personally.

Is Syriza the insane one or am I thinking of kke?

Depends on your viewpoint. But KKE are the Stalinists.

[Forster Keys]

His party has a pretty safe lead (government being decided by seats not gross number of votes of course) but Abbott is still behind in preferred prime minister polling. That's taken so much for granted that going up four percentage points to be only NINE points behind Rudd is seen as a great improvement in his stature.

If he does become Prime Minister (as seems likely), I don't think the people are going to get to like him any better. I wonder if despite the crocodile tears about Gillard "stabbing in the back" Rudd, exactly the same thing happens in the Liberal party.

If Abbott has troubles, Turnbull could very well make a comeback, something I wouldn't mind actually.

A liberal running the Liberals? What nonsense?

[AiliailiA]

I'd prefer Turnbull. That's a name with comedic potential ... all I can manage for Abbott is "the Ab-Bot" and that needs a sight gag to make it work.

[Beta Test]

If Abbott has troubles, Turnbull could very well make a comeback, something I wouldn't mind actually.

A liberal running the Liberals? What nonsense?

I know! Impossible!

[Beta Test]

I'd prefer Turnbull. That's a name with comedic potential ... all I can manage for Abbott is "the Ab-Bot" and that needs a sight gag to make it work.

What an interesting political logic.

[AiliailiA]

Actually, in the leadership spill that saw Abbott depose Turnbull as opposition leader ... Joe Hockey came a pretty close third in the first round.

In Labor, the Deputy Leader is well-positioned along with the Treasurer of any government, to take the leadership by ballot (though I think it's more complicated now, the party passed Rudd's idea of a rank-and-file vote on changing leaders didn't it?). Anyway, my point is that in the Coalition the Treasurer doesn't have even that competition because the Deputy Leader is always a National and that's not going to happen.

It's still a while in the future, but it deserves serious consideration that it would be Hockey not Turnbull who'd depose Abbott.

[AiliailiA]

I'd prefer Turnbull. That's a name with comedic potential ... all I can manage for Abbott is "the Ab-Bot" and that needs a sight gag to make it work.

What an interesting political logic.

Hey, if I ever got into politics it would be as a cartoonist!

[Forster Keys]

Actually, in the leadership spill that saw Abbott depose Turnbull as opposition leader ... Joe Hockey came a pretty close third in the first round.

In Labor, the Deputy Leader is well-positioned along with the Treasurer of any government, to take the leadership by ballot (though I think it's more complicated now, the party passed Rudd's idea of a rank-and-file vote on changing leaders didn't it?). Anyway, my point is that in the Coalition the Treasurer doesn't have even that competition because the Deputy Leader is always a National and that's not going to happen.

It's still a while in the future, but it deserves serious consideration that it would be Hockey not Turnbull who'd depose Abbott.

Joe Hockey seems like an Alright Bloke. But not the type of fella you want running a nation. Or its Treasury.

[Beta Test]

Actually, in the leadership spill that saw Abbott depose Turnbull as opposition leader ... Joe Hockey came a pretty close third in the first round.

In Labor, the Deputy Leader is well-positioned along with the Treasurer of any government, to take the leadership by ballot (though I think it's more complicated now, the party passed Rudd's idea of a rank-and-file vote on changing leaders didn't it?). Anyway, my point is that in the Coalition the Treasurer doesn't have even that competition because the Deputy Leader is always a National and that's not going to happen.

It's still a while in the future, but it deserves serious consideration that it would be Hockey not Turnbull who'd depose Abbott.

Yeah that is true but I get this feeling he doesn't want it that much.

[Blouman Empire]

No election talk from the Australians? I woke up this morning and saw Abbott gaffe on same-sex and I just groaned thinking, even though he is going to lose at least make it a competition don't allow more seats to swing back to red.

He's not going to lose. Polls are saying he will gain votes.

Polls are wrong, damn wrong I say and come election day the people who usually vote ALP but this time are telling pollsters and thinking they will vote Liberal will vote for the ALP because they are playing the underdog card and will figure why not give a hand to their old team.

It worked for the ALP at the last SA state election (Or was it the one before?)

[Blouman Empire]

He's not going to lose. Polls are saying he will gain votes.

His party has a pretty safe lead (government being decided by seats not gross number of votes of course) but Abbott is still behind in preferred prime minister polling. That's taken so much for granted that going up four percentage points to be only NINE points behind Rudd is seen as a great improvement in his stature.

If he does become Prime Minister (as seems likely), I don't think the people are going to get to like him any better. I wonder if despite the crocodile tears about Gillard "stabbing in the back" Rudd, exactly the same thing happens in the Liberal party.

Depends on how the polls go if it goes down they may have to get rid of him, the ALP used the polls to get rid of Krudd the first time because he was a shit boss to work for. And I see with this NT proposal Krudd is going back to his old ways of announcing policy without first consulting his senior colleagues which was one of the reasons they got rid of him in the first place.

This is hardly surprising for Krudd to go back to his old ways, despite his promise to his party that he was a changed man he obviously isn't with Wednesday's announcement and despite his talk about positive politics this has yet to happen with scare campaigns and attack ads.

[AiliailiA]

Actually, in the leadership spill that saw Abbott depose Turnbull as opposition leader ... Joe Hockey came a pretty close third in the first round.

In Labor, the Deputy Leader is well-positioned along with the Treasurer of any government, to take the leadership by ballot (though I think it's more complicated now, the party passed Rudd's idea of a rank-and-file vote on changing leaders didn't it?). Anyway, my point is that in the Coalition the Treasurer doesn't have even that competition because the Deputy Leader is always a National and that's not going to happen.

It's still a while in the future, but it deserves serious consideration that it would be Hockey not Turnbull who'd depose Abbott.

Yeah that is true but I get this feeling he doesn't want it that much.

That could be due to a personal relationship with Abbott.

They've had a lot of opportunity to become friends/allies over the years. Both are sons of immigrants (Hockey Australian-born to parents from Lebanon and Armenia, Abbott born in England with one parent Australian and the other English). Both are avowed Catholics and educated at (private) Catholic schools on the North Shore of Sydney. Both attended Sydney University (Arts/Law for Hockey, Economics and Law dual degrees for Abbott) where they certainly would have met, with only 3 years age difference between them. Both were residents of St John's college at that university, and both were involved in student politics: in fact, at different times both were elected President of the Student's Represenatitive Council at that university.

Their paths would have diverged for a while, as Abbott took up the Rhodes scholarship at Oxford, then later entered a seminary for 3 years. Meanwhile Hocky worked as a lawyer, then as a staffer in the state parliament, but they came back together as members of Federal Parliament (Hocky elected '96, Abbot '94) then as ministers together and shadow ministers together.

I know all this because Big Joe spilled his life story to me after I saved his life from a malfunctioning hot-food vending machine. It's all from my usual source Wikipedia.

Yeah, so those two go back a long way, though that doesn't mean they're friends or they trust each other. Similarity of background and long association do sometimes take the form of bitter rivalry, and often well-hidden rivalry at that. You have to be careful around someone who knows your weaknesses and perhaps has some dirt on you from the past. Particularly if they're from your party, and you either appointed them Shadow Treasurer, or they appointed you. "Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer".

My impression is that they're good friends but they don't talk much ... if that makes sense. If Tony calls up Joe and says "my count in the party room is looking bad, and Turnbull is an atheist commie ... do you want the job?" then Joe would be like "I would be honored Tony, thanks very much. Who can you get that I don't already have?" and that would be it. There would be an announcement, they'd call a vote for one week later ... some other moderate would run to split the Turnbull vote, and Hockey would win it fair and square.

[AiliailiA]

His party has a pretty safe lead (government being decided by seats not gross number of votes of course) but Abbott is still behind in preferred prime minister polling. That's taken so much for granted that going up four percentage points to be only NINE points behind Rudd is seen as a great improvement in his stature.

If he does become Prime Minister (as seems likely), I don't think the people are going to get to like him any better. I wonder if despite the crocodile tears about Gillard "stabbing in the back" Rudd, exactly the same thing happens in the Liberal party.

Depends on how the polls go if it goes down they may have to get rid of him, the ALP used the polls to get rid of Krudd

Reported.

the first time because he was a shit boss to work for.

Says who?

Says other politicians who were embittered by their sudden fall from grace, when the Gillard mob took over.

This is NSG. Give me a better source than a politician talking about another politician.

And I see with this NT proposal Krudd is going back to his old ways of announcing policy without first consulting his senior colleagues which was one of the reasons they got rid of him in the first place.

The NT tax favoritism proposal isn't bad per se. It would make sense as part of a wider program of tax favoritism, for regions with economic growth potential and huge latent unemployment. The NT has a big proportion of the population not even accounted in economic statistics, specifically Aborigines, and contrary to what's in the media, only a small proportion of them are on unemployment benefits, or getting any benefits (monetary or in-kind) at all. I don't see a problem with Aborigines living their traditional lifestyle on land they have title to live in, or even on crown land they don't have a title to established in court. Unless someone else is disputing title, there is no harm done to the State or to the Australian Commonwealth, or to anyone really. But. As a Territory the NT both allows and requires a greater Federal role than other areas called States. I think it is quite appropriate for the Federal government to take measures to lower official unemployment in the NT, to ensure that jobs are more readily available there, specifically so that Aborigines living the traditional lifestyle (or in the awkward position of being dependent on both, taking benefits or sharing benefits, not qualified for paid work but also not entirely accepted into the traditional communities which eschew benefits) can easily move into paid work if they so choose. I'm definitely not saying cut them off benefits, nor force them into work. I'm saying that a different tax regime, aimed at creating low registered unemployment or even a surplus of advertised job positions per applicant, would provide a paid employment alternative for aborigines if they chose to enter paid employment.

Lower taxes isn't my preferred solution of course. Lowering taxes has only a weak effect to provide jobs. Work subsidies are more effective, and job training is too. I'm saying the idea isn't bad per se, but if it really is a federal policy it should apply throughout Australia. WA to has a good proportion of the population living outside the money economy: if lower taxes to stimulate employment is a good idea in the NT, why not also in WA? Because they're a State, so they can deal with it all by themselves? Or Northern Queensland (which for sure, the population-heavy south of Queensland gives short shrift). Or inland NSW, or inland SA.

It's clumsy politics ... bad strategy ... by Rudd. If he's going to announce preferential tax treatment, he should do that in and for some place that has as significant number of voters. Every vote he might win in the NT by suggesting preferential tax treatment, is ten votes he will lose in WA where they've been bitching about their deprecated tax treatment for decades now.

It's clumsy, it's bad politics, but only a clumsy partisan hack would call it bad by intention. You need to distinguish bad strategy from bad intentions.

This is hardly surprising for Krudd to go back to his old ways, despite his promise to his party that he was a changed man he obviously isn't with Wednesday's announcement and despite his talk about positive politics this has yet to happen with scare campaigns and attack ads.

If you were a television, I'd change the channel.

[New Chalcedon]

I'd prefer Turnbull. That's a name with comedic potential ... all I can manage for Abbott is "the Ab-Bot" and that needs a sight gag to make it work.

It was better when Costello was also on the Liberal frontbench.....

[Dazchan]

Depends on how the polls go if it goes down they may have to get rid of him, the ALP used the polls to get rid of Krudd

Reported.

Have you also reported Rudd himself? That's how he refers to himself on Facebook and Twitter.

[Beta Test]

Who do you people think will win the last senate seat in Queensland? Katter, Palmer the Greens or even someone else?

[New Chalcedon]

Who do you people think will win the last senate seat in Queensland? Katter, Palmer the Greens or even someone else?

My intuition (without even a smidge of polling data to back it up ) says 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 KAP in Queensland. Which translates to Labor losing a seat to Katter's Australian Party.

[Beta Test]

Who do you people think will win the last senate seat in Queensland? Katter, Palmer the Greens or even someone else?

My intuition (without even a smidge of polling data to back it up ) says 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 KAP in Queensland. Which translates to Labor losing a seat to Katter's Australian Party.

Ah yes that would make sense. So you don't think the other minor parties have a chance in that seat?

[New Chalcedon]

My intuition (without even a smidge of polling data to back it up ) says 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 KAP in Queensland. Which translates to Labor losing a seat to Katter's Australian Party.

Ah yes that would make sense. So you don't think the other minor parties have a chance in that seat?

Any other State, and I'd be telling you to keep an eye on the Greens.

But the Greens and Queensland just don't get along....

[Beta Test]

Ah yes that would make sense. So you don't think the other minor parties have a chance in that seat?

Any other State, and I'd be telling you to keep an eye on the Greens.

But the Greens and Queensland just don't get along....

In 2010, the Greens won their first senator from Queensland.