Could Assad Win?

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

Assad is the only hope for the Christians and Shiites. Otherwise, the Al Qaeda insurgents we are backing will annihilate them.

So I certainly hope he does win.

And if Israel attacks Russian convoys, I hope Russia strikes Tel Aviv.

Yes, because that totally wouldn't cause a massive world war.
Putin is smart, he knows a direct attack on Israel would cross a line, even for Obama.

[Ralkovia]

Assad is the only hope for the Christians and Shiites. Otherwise, the Al Qaeda insurgents we are backing will annihilate them.

So I certainly hope he does win.

And if Israel attacks Russian convoys, I hope Russia strikes Tel Aviv.

Yes, because that totally wouldn't cause a massive world war.

He's also ridiculous.

"Huehuehuehue, if Israel attacks a military asset of Russia, Russia should totally kill civilians. Huehuehuehuehue."

[Al-Quarra]

Assad is the only hope for the Christians and Shiites. Otherwise, the Al Qaeda insurgents we are backing will annihilate them.

So I certainly hope he does win.

And if Israel attacks Russian convoys, I hope Russia strikes Tel Aviv.

Yes, because that totally wouldn't cause a massive world war.

Well Russia won't let Israel just bomb them... Israel will have a problem if it bombs Russian convoys, but Israel isn't that stupid.

Israel will bomb after the Russians left it.

[Ralkovia]

Is it bad that this entire scenario played out in my mind.

In the middle of a battlefield

*Knock* *Knock*

Syrian in house: (whispering)"I think it's the Assad's soldiers, honey, put out the Syrian Army Banner..."

Other Syrian: (whispering)"What if it's rebel soldiers..."

*knock* *knock*

Syrian: Allah please protect us (Opens door)

Middle aged white guy enters with a survey form.

"Hi, I'm Dan from Surveysays, these are my Assad body guards, we were in the neighborhood and I was just wondering if you support Assad, the rebels, or were neutral?"

Thanks for the sig quote, bro.

No problem.

[Ralkovia]

Yes, because that totally wouldn't cause a massive world war.

Well Russia won't let Israel just bomb them... Israel will have a problem if it bombs Russian convoys, but Israel isn't that stupid.

Israel will bomb after the Russians left it.

Of course. Plus Russia is about to buy a commanding interest of Israeli Natural Gas. They're not going to war anytime soon.

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

Yes, because that totally wouldn't cause a massive world war.

Well Russia won't let Israel just bomb them... Israel will have a problem if it bombs Russian convoys, but Israel isn't that stupid.

Israel will bomb after the Russians left it.

Thats the thing tho, Israel WOULDN'T bomb them.
If Putin did deliver the S300s, or any other weapon Israel deems "gamechanging" then the IDF would wait patiently for the cargo to be unloaded and the Russians to leave. Once the targets are manned by Syrians alone, Then they would strike.

Israel doesn't want to provoke Russia, and Putin doesn't want to attack a US ally. It'd be too risky, even for him.

[Xanixi]

Well Russia won't let Israel just bomb them... Israel will have a problem if it bombs Russian convoys, but Israel isn't that stupid.

Israel will bomb after the Russians left it.

Of course. Plus Russia is about to buy a commanding interest of Israeli Natural Gas. They're not going to war anytime soon.

inb4israelnukesrussia.

[Xanixi]

Well Russia won't let Israel just bomb them... Israel will have a problem if it bombs Russian convoys, but Israel isn't that stupid.

Israel will bomb after the Russians left it.

Thats the thing tho, Israel WOULDN'T bomb them.
If Putin did deliver the S300s, or any other weapon Israel deems "gamechanging" then the IDF would wait patiently for the cargo to be unloaded and the Russians to leave. Once the targets are manned by Syrians alone, Then they would strike.

Israel doesn't want to provoke Russia, and Putin doesn't want to attack a US ally. It'd be too risky, even for him.

>doesn't want to provoke Russia
>destroys Russian-gifted equipment

Seems legit.

Btw, how (if they are, which I am assuming they are) is Syria going to pay for the S-300s?

[Gauthier]

Thats the thing tho, Israel WOULDN'T bomb them.
If Putin did deliver the S300s, or any other weapon Israel deems "gamechanging" then the IDF would wait patiently for the cargo to be unloaded and the Russians to leave. Once the targets are manned by Syrians alone, Then they would strike.

Israel doesn't want to provoke Russia, and Putin doesn't want to attack a US ally. It'd be too risky, even for him.

>doesn't want to provoke Russia
>destroys Russian-gifted equipment

Seems legit.

Btw, how (if they are, which I am assuming they are) is Syria going to pay for the S-300s?

It won't. Russia has a vested interest in keeping Assad in power.

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

Thats the thing tho, Israel WOULDN'T bomb them.
If Putin did deliver the S300s, or any other weapon Israel deems "gamechanging" then the IDF would wait patiently for the cargo to be unloaded and the Russians to leave. Once the targets are manned by Syrians alone, Then they would strike.

Israel doesn't want to provoke Russia, and Putin doesn't want to attack a US ally. It'd be too risky, even for him.

>doesn't want to provoke Russia
>destroys Russian-gifted equipment

Seems legit.

Btw, how (if they are, which I am assuming they are) is Syria going to pay for the S-300s?

The line between flagrantly and acceptably provocative action is a blurry one.
If IDF strikes the equipment but doesn't harm any Russian personnel, the action would likely be acceptable.
Sure, there will be the ritualistic dickwaving dance and condemnation by the Kremlin but thats about it.

If Russians are harmed or killed it becomes another matter entirely, Israel would be careful to aviod such a scenario

On the topic of payment, it is presumable the defense system has already been paid for and the contract has been in existence since before the eruption of the present shitstorm.

[Al-Quarra]

Thats the thing tho, Israel WOULDN'T bomb them.
If Putin did deliver the S300s, or any other weapon Israel deems "gamechanging" then the IDF would wait patiently for the cargo to be unloaded and the Russians to leave. Once the targets are manned by Syrians alone, Then they would strike.

Israel doesn't want to provoke Russia, and Putin doesn't want to attack a US ally. It'd be too risky, even for him.

>doesn't want to provoke Russia
>destroys Russian-gifted equipment

Seems legit.

Btw, how (if they are, which I am assuming they are) is Syria going to pay for the S-300s?

When they are deliverd it isn't Russia's problem anymore.

Syria will pay, it isn't Greece you know;)

[Forster Keys]

Assad is the only hope for the Christians and Shiites. Otherwise, the Al Qaeda insurgents we are backing will annihilate them.

So I certainly hope he does win.

And if Israel attacks Russian convoys, I hope Russia strikes Tel Aviv.

I thought you were a religious man. But perhaps your compassion doesn't extend to Jews.

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

>doesn't want to provoke Russia
>destroys Russian-gifted equipment

Seems legit.

Btw, how (if they are, which I am assuming they are) is Syria going to pay for the S-300s?

When they are deliverd it isn't Russia's problem anymore.

Syria will pay, it isn't Greece you know;)

lol

[Al-Quarra]

Assad is the only hope for the Christians and Shiites. Otherwise, the Al Qaeda insurgents we are backing will annihilate them.

So I certainly hope he does win.

And if Israel attacks Russian convoys, I hope Russia strikes Tel Aviv.

I thought you were a religious man. But perhaps your compassion doesn't extend to Jews.

Now i'm confused, he's talking about Israel, not jews...

[Agritum]

I thought you were a religious man. But perhaps your compassion doesn't extend to Jews.

Now i'm confused, he's talking about Israel, not jews...

A better way to phrase it would be "his compassion doesn't extend to Israelis."

Since there are actually Arab Israeli.

[Forster Keys]

I thought you were a religious man. But perhaps your compassion doesn't extend to Jews.

Now i'm confused, he's talking about Israel, not jews...

Tel Aviv isn't exactly the largest Arab city in the region. But yes, that is it's nationality.

[United Kingdom of Poland]

>doesn't want to provoke Russia
>destroys Russian-gifted equipment

Seems legit.

Btw, how (if they are, which I am assuming they are) is Syria going to pay for the S-300s?

The line between flagrantly and acceptably provocative action is a blurry one.
If IDF strikes the equipment but doesn't harm any Russian personnel, the action would likely be acceptable.
Sure, there will be the ritualistic dickwaving dance and condemnation by the Kremlin but thats about it.

If Russians are harmed or killed it becomes another matter entirely, Israel would be careful to aviod such a scenario

On the topic of payment, it is presumable the defense system has already been paid for and the contract has been in existence since before the eruption of the present shitstorm.

I can just imagine it now.
*Israel blows up missiles*
Russia *turns towards Israel*
"Stop blowing up the shit we send to Syria"
*turns towards Syria*
"Stop leaving the shit we send you out where Israel can can blow it up"

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

I thought you were a religious man. But perhaps your compassion doesn't extend to Jews.

Now i'm confused, he's talking about Israel, not jews...

Israel is a predominantly Jewish State. The only one of it's kind on Earth.

[Al-Quarra]

Now i'm confused, he's talking about Israel, not jews...

A better way to phrase it would be "his compassion doesn't extend to Israelis."

Since there are actually Arab Israeli.

That's already much better.

[Al-Quarra]

Now i'm confused, he's talking about Israel, not jews...

Israel is a predominantly Jewish State. The only one of it's kind on Earth.

Still, Israel is a country, not a religion... Much people forget about it.

Being against Israel doesn't mean that you're against Jews....

[Ralkovia]

Israel is a predominantly Jewish State. The only one of it's kind on Earth.

Still, Israel is a country, not a religion... Much people forget about it.

Being against Israel doesn't mean that you're against Jews....

It does however mean your against the physical embodiment of a Jewish State.

[Fellrike]

Al Assad can indeed win, if his backers are more determined to see him victorious, than the countries supporting the opposition are to help their side(s). It's about cost tolerance: how high a price are you prepared to pay for victory? Al Assad's allies, particularly Hezbollah, have probably invested too much already, to allow them to walk away and concede defeat. But of course, the regime's oldest and most important ally is Russia. What are Russia's options? How far will they go, to keep their client in power? What if (hypothetically) the Russians decided to send the Syrians some technical advisors along with the S-300s? Would the Israelis target the missiles anyway, risking the possibility of killing them? Would Putin go that far, using his soldiers as a "meat shield" to deter an Israeli strike?
Years ago, I read somewhere that some Soviet aviators were believed to be flying with one or more of the Arab air forces during one of their wars; the Israelis found out about this, and went out of their way to avoid engaging the planes thought to be flown by Soviets. This was very sensible. But at what point will the IDF decide it has to strike at Syria, even if this means possibly killing some Russian missile instructors at the target site?

[Forster Keys]

Israel is a predominantly Jewish State. The only one of it's kind on Earth.

Still, Israel is a country, not a religion... Much people forget about it.

Being against Israel doesn't mean that you're against Jews....

Very true. But calling for the bombing of Tel Aviv? It isn't exactly half Arab half Jewish like Galilee. It's 93% Jewish. It seems as if Christians and Alawites within Syria need to be saved (which they do), but in this sectarian war Jews are of lesser or no value.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tel_Aviv#Demographics

[Ambroseford]

Foreign intervention is the major factor that determines who the victor is.

Iran is supplying Assad, I believe Saudi Arabia is supplying the rebels to get back at Iran, Qatar is supporting... I forget. Russia is giving the Assad weapons if I'm not mistaken. Turkey is sheltering the rebels....

Who wins? Maybe in the short term, the Assad, but the rebels could quite possibly destabilize the regime and become martyrs for future uprisings.

[Columbina]

Of course he COULD win, he has the ability to.
WILL Assad win, dear God I hope not.